Loading ...Rome Braves 2010 Latin American Talent
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 9, 2010
Something of a poster I’ve made.
Image sources: Bethancourt, Salcedo, Vizcaino, and Teheran.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 4 Comments »
Sixteen Transactions in Frank Wren’s History
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 9, 2010
Quantitatively evaluating sixteen of Frank Wren’s more well-known moves. Let’s just get right to it.
Signings
1. Signed Rafael Soriano to a 2 year, $9 million contract.
Signings are the easiest to evaluate because it’s just money and production. This one proved to be worth it, rare for a relief pitcher. This deal gets high marks.
2, 3. Signed Tom Glavine to a 1 year, $8 million contract (2008). Signed Tom Glavine to a 1 year, $1 million contract plus incentives (2009).
I figured I’d just get both of them out of the way. Quite simply, this turned out to be a horrible deal. It looked better at the time on both accounts, but it’s still a terrible allocation of resources.
4. Signed Garret Anderson to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract.
Waste of cash. Playing him when he was actively hurting the team didn’t help, but a terrible signing overall.
5. Signed Derek Lowe to a 4 year, $60 million contract.
Too early to call, but it probably won’t look too good after 2012. The Braves also gave up their 2009 second round pick.
6. Signed Kenshin Kawakami to a 3 year, $23 million contract.
Again, too early to tell. The first year was slightly positive and it could really go either way.
Big Trades
7. Traded SS Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez.
The production of Jair Jurrjens for the Braves thus far makes this deal a complete knock-out. Renteria was basically worthless on a very bad Detroit team. Jurrjens has been worth 7.7 wins for league minimum over the past two seasons. This is by far Frank Wren’s best trade. Gorkys will be covered in the next transaction, but he was a top 76-100 hitter, worth $12.5 million, at the time of the trade.
8. Traded RHP Charlie Morton, OF Gorkys Hernandez, and LHP Jeff Locke for OF Nate McLouth.
McLouth has a very good chance of making this deal look pretty good. Then again, so does Charlie Morton and (to a lesser degree) Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez. Hernandez was rated a top 51-75 prospect immediately before he was dealt but his stock has since fallen and he’s now simply a grade B prospect. To this point, there’s plenty of evidence Wren sold Gorkys at his highest point:
Of course, if he stops making so many outs, he could be worth $55 million, rather than $5.5 million.
9, 10. Traded 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Stephen Marek. Traded 1B Casey Kotchman for 1B Adam LaRoche.
Stephen Marek will have to be a $5.3 million man to make this trade worthwhile. I have little confidence he’ll have any positive impact on any MLB roster ever. Not that Frank Wren was in a particularly good position to begin with.
11, 12. Traded C Tyler Flowers, SS Brent Lillibridge, LHP Santos Rodriguez, and 3B Jon Gilmore for RHP Javier Vazquez. Trade RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan for OF Melky Cabrera, RHP Arodys Vizcaino, and LHP Michael Dunn.
Treating Boone Logan and Michael Dunn as a wash, the Braves traded $20.6 million in prospects for $15.2 million in prospects and $14.5 million in surplus value. One of the better moves Wren has made. Of course, having those extra wins in 2010 would be nice. The first one certainly looks better than the second, at least in retrospect. I only considered Melky’s 2010 value for the sake of conservatism.
Minor yet not insignificant trades
13. Traded RHP Jose Ascaino for LHP Will Ohman and INF Omar Infante.
Ascanio ended up being a throw in in some minor trade with the Pirates at the ‘09 deadline. Calling this deal lop-sided may be an understatement.
14, 15. Traded RHP Joey Devine and INF Jamie Richmond for OF Mark Kotsay and cash. Traded OR Mark Kotsay for OF Luis Sumoza.
Joey Devine is far from finished making this look bad for Atlanta.
16. Traded OF Jeff Francoeur and cash for OF Ryan Church.
No matter what, this was the correct move. Francoeur played above his head, Church was mostly hurt and ineffective, and the Braves still won the value game. I find that a lot more relevant than the fact that the Wilpons foolishly committed $5 million to Jeff Francoeur in 2010 whereas the Braves exercised some fiscal responsibility and chose to cut Ryan Church. The longer the Wilpons pay Francoeur the better this deal will look (from Atlanta’s perspective).
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 2 Comments »
Braves 12, Tigers 4
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 8, 2010
Guess what, doesn’t matter.
Though I would like to see a video of Jason Heyward’s supposed tape measure shot off Max Scherzer. It’s not up on MLB.com yet.
UPDATE: Thanks to reader TheEnantiomer for providing a link to the video of Heyward’s blast.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 7 Comments »
Q&A at Macho Row
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 8, 2010
For the second year in a row I’ve done a Braves Q&A for the Phillies site Macho Row. It’s up and you can see it here. A quote:
To actually answer the question, if everyone stays relatively healthy–something that’s certainly not a given in any year for any team and particular so with respect to the 2009 Braves–and both the team in general and the individual players steer clear of the bad luck fairy and the sharp, abnormal decline wizard, the Braves will be playing meaningful games in late September and possibly October. I don’t think their roster is nearly as good as the Phillies, so I don’t envision a scenario in which the Braves are seriously in contention for the NL East all season that doesn’t involve a lot of injuries in Philadelphia or a lot of career years in Atlanta. But as far as the wild card is concerned, the teams I see competing for it other than Atlanta are the three teams out west that can hit (Colorado, Arizona, and Los Angeles) and possibly the Cubs, Reds, or Mets, (maybe the Giants if they get lucky, but their roster is pretty bad) and I think the Braves are perfectly capable of staying in the race with any of those six teams until the bitter end.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 5 Comments »
Braves 9, Astros 4
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 7, 2010
I saw a blurb on MLB Trade Rumors about the Rangers possibly trading Josh Hamilton. If the Rangers do make him available anytime within the next year, it probably makes a good bit of sense for the Braves to pursue him. Hamilton represents two things the Braves need, star power and power hitting from the outfield.
Hamilton’s professional career has been all over the place, including being drafted 1st overall in 1999, a suspension by MLB, a well documented drug addiction problem, and an all-star, silver slugger year in 2008. He’s logged only 1406 MLB PA’s including only 365 during 2009, a largely disappointing and injury riddled year. His numbers have been less impressive than the scouting reports (especially when the parks are considered) thus far, and the Braves, being an organization that likes to bet on talent, probably see this as an advantage. Regardless, he owns a career 24% LD%, he’s struck out and walked at average rates, and he’s got tremendous power. He hits with an “RBI approach”, which I don’t think much of, but some people see that as an essential skill for a middle-of-the-order hitter. Whatever.
Defensively, he’s merely adequate in center field and above average at either corner. It’s rare to see a player with this much bat–enough to be a star even at a corner–and enough range to play center field. He’s a classic 5-tool player who in his best years is capable of hitting .300+ with 35+ homers, playing above-average defense, and running the bases well.
The biggest knock on Hamilton thus far has been his inability to stay healthy and productive for an entire season. He basically did that in 2008, but he did slow down in the 2nd half. His career 1st half ISO is .236 but in the 2nd half it’s only .188. Similarly, his home run to at bat ratio drops from 5.6 per cent in the 1st half to 3.8 per cent in the 2nd half. There’s no reason to think he isn’t capable of putting together a healthy, productive season that doesn’t involve a slow second half, but it’s something to consider. Also, there’s the drug addiction thing. While he’s presumably clean now, he’s never far from a relapse. As bad as it may sound to bring something like this up, even if his intentions are good (and they seem to be, something that also shouldn’t be ignored), the risk is there. In this case, it has little to do with his character and everything to do with the way a human brain works.
The other thing is he hits left handed and not unlike most left handed hitters has been significantly better against right handed pitching throughout his career. Adding another left handed hitter that figures as a semi-long term fixture could present roster construction problems in the future, as center field (Schafer or McLouth), right field (Heyward), and catcher (McCann) are all occupied by left handed hitters and the third baseman (Chipper) is a switch hitter who favors the south side. Therefore, the opportunities to get right-handers in the line up are slim, especially right-handed power hitters, seeing as the middle infielders are hardly that and it’s difficult to find power-hitting middle infielders in the first place. If Freddie Freeman wins the 1B job, for instance, and the Braves had Hamilton in the mix, they’d be looking at a 2011 line up of something like this (with little flexibility):
1. Schafer*
2. Chipper#
3. Heyward*
4. Hamilton*
5. McCann*
6. Escobar
7. Freeman*
8. Prado
Of course, that line up is awesome, and the fact that it’s somewhat LOOGY-vulnerable in the middle is probably obscured by how awesome it is, but this issue is worth noting.
As much as there is good, there’s plenty of risk involved, here. He’s capable of doing very special things if he stays healthy, effective, and clean, but none of those is a given. Granted, there’s risk involved with every player, but it’s safe to say Hamilton is a riskier commodity than your typical late-20’s power-hitting outfielder. The risk thing could work to Atlanta’s advantage for a few reasons. One, they’ve set their roster up in a way that is conducive to assuming risk. I’ve covered this ad nauseum, so I won’t do it further here. Two, it makes less sense for a big market team to assume this much risk. Teams only assume risk when they have to, and if a team can afford to pay a similar but less risky player more money on the FA market, they’re going to do that instead. Take the Yankees out of the picture and the price drops. Simple baseball truth. Three, smaller market teams have to take more risk to win for reasons covered immediately above this sentence.
Hamilton is signed at $3 million for 2010 and he remains year-to-year, arbitration-eligible through 2012. How much he’ll produce in his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons is difficult to predict given the previously mentioned risk. There’s a non-negligible chance he produces anywhere from 4 to 20 wins during that period. My non-scientific, least-error estimate of how valuable he’ll be during those three years is 10.5 wins. In that case and under his contract terms, he’d be worth about $30 million in surplus value over the life of his contract. Observe:
Of course, the risk involved makes this a complicated situation, as there’s a chance the surplus value could be negligible or closer to $60 million, but I do think this is a pretty good estimate of his trade value.
When I did the Adrian Gonzalez thing, his contract was worth about the same as Hamilton’s. So, the Kris Medlen, Zeke Spruill, Robinson Lopez, Lee Hyde, and Arodys Vizcaino package is probably a fairly good place to start when thinking about a hypothetical Hamilton-Braves scenario. If you were inclined to do that sort of thing.
As an aside, I’m probably going to write something similar to this about every big corner OF/1B type that’s rumored to be available for awhile. I don’t see another logical way for the Braves to upgrade their roster. Again, because I’m writing this doesn’t mean I’m advocating it. Taking time to explain what a player’s worth on the trade market is a valuable exercise, regardless of my position on the player.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 2 Comments »
Astros Again Post
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 7, 2010
It’s the Astros again, and Tommy Hanson again. He’ll probably throw 3 innings or about 45-55 pitches today.
Because I’m Committed
Still no home runs. What a bum.
Bobby’s Replacement Poll
Internal candidates only. Should be up on the right side bar by the time you read this.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 2 Comments »
Astros 3, Braves 0
By Capitol Avenue Club | March 6, 2010
What can I say? If this were a real game I’d point out the Braves had 14 base runners and 8 total bases while the Astros had 10 base runners and 10 total bases and the Braves were just as liable to win that one as they were to lose it, but who gives a rat’s ass, it’s spring training.
Also, I’ve thought about this for awhile, this is the worst Duke-Carolina game I’ve ever seen.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | No Comments »
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