My Quick Goodbye
July 29, 2012 at 2:52 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
When I first began writing about baseball five years ago, I did so with the intention of building a network to one day work for a team in a full-time capacity. After moving from site to site, completing various internships, interviews and special assignments, I have finally accomplished my goal of joining a team and will be leaving Capitol Avenue Club and ESPN, effective immediately.
Over the past few months, the frequency of my writing has diminished as my focus has shifted towards a career in sports marketing, public relations and social media. I apologize for the lessened content on my end, but it was made possible with the additions of Franklin, David and Ethan this season. As I depart, I am confident that the current staff or writers will continue to provide the most in-depth Braves analysis available.
As of tomorrow, I will begin working as a Social Media and Research Analyst for an NFL team and will put my baseball writing career behind me. Although my long-form writing will disappear, I can assure you that my personal friends dislike, my incessant Braves tweeting (@kevinorris) will continue.
Thank you again for your loyal readership and eternal dedication to CAC. Thanks also to Peter for providing me with the initial opportunity here and Ben for covering me whenever I was too lazy to write something.
Finally, the internet tells me John Gay once said, “We only part to meet again.” I don’t know who John Gay is, but who knows … we may meet again.
No Analysis Necessary: Freddie Freeman Fastball Location
June 30, 2012 at 8:34 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
At least once or twice a week I come across a pretty cool chart or statistic that Braves fans would find interesting. Sometimes I tweet about it, but most times I keep it to myself. It’s not because I’m selfish, but because this space has almost always been used for providing data with analysis. Today, I am bucking that trend.
I hope you enjoy the Heat Maps and metrics below:
Freeman in 2012 vs. inside fastballs: .385/.411/.712
Freeman in 2012 vs. outside fastballs: .157/.228/.196
(Hint: if you haven’t figured it out yet, teams have figured out to keep fastballs away from Freeman in the month of June.)
The Bad News About Brandon Beachy
June 5, 2012 at 2:41 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
At this time last year, Jair Jurrjens was pitching like an All-Star. Entering his June 4th start at Citi Field, the Jurrjens sported a 1.51 ERA while opponents hit just .234/.271/.331 against him over nine starts. Come the end of the month, his ERA declined to just a few ticks above two and opponents posted a measly .626 OPS against.
Following a one-hit, complete game shutout on July 1 against the Baltimore Orioles, Jurrjens pitched just 47.1 more innings over the rest of the season. During that stretch, he posted a 5.32 ERA while opponents batted a much improved .290/.365/.532. Right knee issues aside, Jurrjens regressed heavily. His luck finally ran dry.
It pains me to write about it, but Brandon Beachy’s 2012 season has taken a very similar path to Jurrjens’ 2011 campaign. As I write this, Beachy leads the league with a 1.87 ERA over 72.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, his FIP rests nearly 1.5 points higher than his ERA while his xFIP sits at 4.02. Statistics say that we’re currently witnessing the calm before the storm.
Sabermetrics be dammed, why not take a look at his approach to understand why Beachy has been oh so good this year. Below is a table of Beachy’s pitch selection against both left- and right-handed batters in 2011 vs. 2012.
|
|
Fastball |
Changeup |
Curveball |
Slider |
|
2011 vs. RHB |
61% |
26% |
8% |
5% |
|
2012 vs. RHB |
61% |
25% |
9% |
5% |
|
2011 vs. LHB |
61% |
10% |
12% |
17% |
|
2012 vs. LHB |
66% |
10% |
11% |
14% |
After studying the data presented, there isn’t much of a difference. When taking a more detailed look at various advanced metrics though, things begin to change.
|
|
In Play% |
Zone% |
Miss% |
Chase% |
|
2011 vs. RHB |
33.5% |
48.8% |
27.3% |
30.6% |
|
2012 vs. RHB |
40.6% |
54.7% |
22.4% |
22.5% |
|
2011 vs. LHB |
31.8% |
40.6% |
31.6% |
32.1% |
|
2012 vs. LHB |
35.5% |
45.6% |
16.7% |
28.3% |
Across the board, Beachy is throwing more strikes and allowing for more contact in 2012 compared to 2011. While his success has been tremendous to this point, it is impossible to allow this much contact, with a sub-par defensive alignment no less, and maintain the current results.
In fact, Beachy’s .207 BABIP ranks first among qualifying pitchers by .014, while his HR/FB% sits in the top 10 and LOB% ranks among the top 30. If Jurrjens’ 2011 season was any indication, Beachy’s results will soon take a turn for the worse.
Even so, there may be a solution. Now, Beachy is a good pitcher, but he’s not really the best pitcher in baseball, though he could easily rank among the top 25 in baseball. In fact, his lucky approach early on this season may only help him as the season continues.
Since Beachy has been so strong in 2012, he has relied heavily on throwing all four of his pitches for strikes and allowing hitters to make contact, rather than fooling hitters with balls that look like strikes. As the old saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
It is important to note that Beachy led qualifying starting pitchers in K/9 in 2011 at 10.74. In 2012, he ranks 63rd at 7.09. Look again at the drastic change in Beachy’s zone%, miss%, and chase% in 2012. He simply hasn’t been trying to strike batters out. Instead, he’s throwing the ball over the middle of the plate and daring opposing batters to hit it. So far, it has worked.
Simply put, if he continues this approach, the results are likely to favor opposing batters. However, if Beachy returns to his 2011 method of locating more pitches – both fastballs and off-speed – outside of the zone, his strikeout rate should return to its 2011 standard. Though, right now, batters aren’t chasing his pitches because they don’t have to.
Ultimately, it’s up to Beachy to determine his approach, but know that if it remains constant, the results are destined to change.
No Analysis Necessary: Mike Minor’s Struggles
June 1, 2012 at 1:01 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
At least once or twice a week I come across a pretty cool chart or statistic that Braves fans would find interesting. Sometimes I tweet about it, but most times I keep it to myself. It’s not because I’m selfish, but because this space has almost always been used for providing data with analysis. Today, I am bucking that trend.
Below is a series of heat maps and statistics pertaining to Mike Minor. I hope you enjoy them.
- 44.2% of Mike Minor’s 998 pitches this season have been in the strike zone. Francisco Liriano is the only other qualifying left-handed pitcher to throw fewer pitches in the zone at 43.0%.
- 44.1% of contact made against Minor’s 998 pitches has resulted in a fly ball. That ties him for ninth among qualifying left-handed pitchers. His 34.6% groundball rate is third lowest in baseball.
- 36.1% of Minor’s 998 pitches have been located in the vertical middle of the plate. That ties him with Chris Sale for seventh highest among qualifying left-handed pitchers.
- Minor has located pitches in the horizontal middle of the plate just 19.1% of the time. Jamie Moyer is the only pitcher with a lower percentage (19.0%).
- TruMedia has a metric called paint (Shortest Distance to Edge of Strike Zone; Measured in Inches, Positive=In Strike Zone, Negative=Out of Strike Zone). Mike Minor’s -1.2 is tied with Liriano and Drew Pomeranz for the lowest among qualifying left-handed pitchers.
- TruMedia also calculates Well Hit Average (Well Hit Balls / AB). Batters have posted a 0.221 WHAV aginast Minor this year. That is fifth highest among qualifying left-handed pitchers. When throwing his fastball, opponents have posted a 0.280 WHAV.
5/25 News, Links, Discussion: Home Sweet Home
May 25, 2012 at 2:34 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Back on Track
After dropping four straight in Cincinnati, the Braves look to get back on track tonight against the Washington Nationals. With a series win this weekend, Atlanta would reclaim first place in the NL East.
Ross Detwiler will oppose Tim Hudson in his fourth career start against Atlanta. In 19.1 career innings against the Braves, Detwiler has posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP. The St. Louis, Mo. native relies predominantly on a low-90′s sinker mixed with a four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup.
Chipper Jones pinch hit in Wednesday’s game but did not appear yesterday. He remains day-to-day.
Brian McCann has been scratched from the lineup the past three days due to an illness. He remains day-to-day.
More Links
Update (5:30 p.m.): ESPN Stats and Info wrote about Tim Hudson’s dominance and the upcoming series today. Thanks to Harris K. for the heads up.
Update (4:30): Sam Fuld joined the FanGraphs Audio crew to talk about his experience working sabermetrics into the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves broadcast last Sunday. We had a live chat during that game and many folks really seemed to enjoy the broadcast. Thanks to Harris K. for the heads up.
Update (4:00 p.m.): Jayson Stark writes for ESPN.com about Kris Medlen potentially moving to the starting rotation at some point this season. Here’s a quick excerpt: “We have a guy internally who’s probably better than any arm who will be available, and that’s Kris Medlen. He’s never thrown over 120 innings in a season, so we’ve got to be careful with his innings. But if we feel we need a guy late in the season, we wouldn’t be afraid to take him out of the bullpen and transition him into the rotation.” Thanks to reader Jacob Z. for the heads up.
Kevin Goheen of MLB.com wrote about the Cincinnati Reds tribute to Chipper Jones prior to yesterday’s game.
Mark Bowman of MLB.com wrote about the upcoming series with Washington, Jason Heyward’s struggles and Michael Bourn’s recent power surge.
I contributed to ESPN.com’s Triple Play preview for the upcoming weekend.
Ex-Brave Nate McLouth has been DFA’d by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Ben is in Vegas and David is at his brother’s wedding all weekend so the daily posts are my responsibility. I encourage you to send any links my way @kevinorris or at kevinorris@capitolavenueclub.com. I will do my best to update this post throughout the day.
Check us out on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter: @Ben_Duronio, @fjrabon, @kevinorris,@David11Lee.
Check back throughout the day for the latest news and discussion updated on this post.
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays Live Chat
May 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Game 35: Braves 7, Cardinals 4
May 14, 2012 at 1:17 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Jason Heyward, .294
Most Valuable Cardinal: Rafael Furcal, .160
Least Valuable Cardinal: Victor Marte, -.145
Least Valuable Brave: Tommy Hanson, -.065
Loading ...
