Eric O’Flaherty Is Out Of Control

May 10, 2012 at 4:50 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Last season, Eric O’Flaherty led all Major League relievers with a 0.98 ERA. Per the Braves Media Guide, his ERA was the lowest in Major League history of any pitcher to make 75 or more appearances.

This season, O’Flaherty’s ERA has increased to 6.35. Below is a table of other metrics where EOF has regressed:

	K%	BB%	K/BB	BABIP	HR/FB%	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
2009	16.5	7.6	2.17	.292	4.2	72.4	3.04	3.45	4.11
2010	19.9	9.9	2.00	.282	7.1	79.0	2.45	3.33	3.51
2011	22.3	7.0	3.19	.274	3.9	92.3	0.98	2.54	3.05
2012	18.2	10.9	1.67	.361	22.2	72.9	6.35	5.33	4.12
Career	18.1	8.5	2.13	.297	5.9	74.4	3.28	3.51	3.97

 

And some more:

	WPA	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Zone%
2009	0.29	28.9	64.0	63.8	88.0	49.5
2010	0.76	31.5	62.9	59.5	87.6	46.6
2011	2.51	33.0	69.5	57.8	89.6	44.0
2012	-0.37	41.2	60.3	69.4	85.4	36.4
Career	1.87	30.6	66.3	60.3	87.6	47.2

Each of these numbers comes from FanGraphs.com, which also provides a handy glossary for your perusal. In short, O’Flaherty has regressed across the board.

Entering 2012, most analysts expected him to regress (a 3.9 HR/FB%, 92.3 LOB% and two-point ERA to xFIP differential are nearly impossible to maintain), though you would be hard pressed to find someone expecting such a drastic difference.

Perhaps the most important number is his Zone % (the amount of pitches he throws in the strike zone), which has declined to a career low 36.4%. For reference, Roy Halladay’s career Zone % is 50.6. Tim Hudson’s is just 0.3 higher. It would be nearly impossible for O’Flaherty to maintain such a low percentage and get batters out at the same time.

That being said, I took a look at Pitch F/X, which is pretty sporadic for O’Flaherty in 2012. Brooks Baseball says he has been throwing his sinker more this season, while Tru Media claims he has thrown just one sinker this season. Talk about confusing. Let’s go with Brooks on this one, considering MLB Gameday also considers O’Flaherty to throw a majority of sinkers.

I went back and reviewed pitches from a few of O’Flaherty’s most recent appearances and didn’t struggle to reach a conclusion: he has lost his command. As you’ll see in the screenshots below, the catcher will set up looking for a pitch in the zone, but O’Flaherty’s tendency to throw hard stuff up and in against left handed batters mixed with the arm-side run of his sinker aren’t helping him throw strikes.

The following three sets of picture are from 5/2/2012 against the Philadelphia Phillies. They are the first three pitches O’Flaherty threw against Ty Wigginton (sinker, slider, sinker):

(Note: The green line is parallel across all three images from where the catcher’s glove starts and the red lines are vertical to help show the target’s position relative to home plate.)

Okay, so it may be a small sample size. Why not check his most recent appearance on 5/8/2012 against the Chicago Cubs? Though he missed with quite a few pitches, I have only presented a screenshot of his first offering – a sinker – to Ian Stewart.

I am not here to criticize or attempt to adjust O’Flaherty’s mechanics. If I were able to provide help on that front, I would have a job beyond freelance writing. The fact of the matter is that O’Flaherty is struggling to command, much less control his pitches this season and it hasn’t led to many positive results. In the short run, one might suggest he returns to his four-seam offering a bit more.

If the numbers say anything about his 2012 campaign, he has suffered poor fortune, all the while lacking success. Assuming one of the two turn around, we should begin to see the O’Flaherty we all witnessed in 2009 and 2010.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Live Chat

May 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

We promised live chats and it is about time we delivered. Join us for the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies game on May 2 at 6:45 Eastern for a live chat. Roy Halladay will be facing off against Tommy Hanson. It should be fun.

Game 22: Braves 4, Pirates 3

April 29, 2012 at 5:31 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Source: FanGraphs

Game MVP: Jose Tabata, .209

Least Valuable Pirate: Kevin Correia, -.325
Most Valuable Brave: Dan Uggla, .180
Least Valuable Brave: Chipper Jones, -.147

Note: Rumor has it, there may be a live chat sometime this week. Please vote in the poll if you would be interested in a chat during Wednesday night’s game.

4/29 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Pirates, Return of Tim Hudson, Bryce Harper Debut

April 29, 2012 at 2:39 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Hudson Returns to the Mound
The Braves look to get back in the win column after last night’s 4-2 loss to the Pirates. Tim Hudson will take the mound for the first time in the 2012 season after undergoing offseason back surgery. Game time is 1:35 on Sports South.

Braves lineup: Michael Bourn (CF), Martin Prado (LF), Freddie Freeman (1B), Brian McCann (C), Dan Uggla (2B), Chipper Jones (3B), Jason Heyward (RF), Tyler Pastornicky (SS), Tim Hudson (P)

Pirates lineup: Alex Presley (L, LF), Jose Tabata (R, RF), Andrew McCutchen (R, CF), Garrett Jones (L, 1B), Neil Walker (S, 2B), Pedro Alvarez (L, 3B), Clint Barmes (R, SS), Michael McKenry (R, C), Kevin Correia (R, P).

Game Notes

MLB.com preview
STATS preview

Hudson will replace Cory Gearrin on the roster to make his first start of the season today. In four rehab appearances between Class-A Rome and Triple-A Gwinnett, he has thrown 17 innings while allowing 21 hits and six walks in addition to seven earned runs. In his last two starts, he has pitched 5 and 5.2 innings, respectively.

Kevin Correia is historically known as a contact pitcher. He posted a 4.50 K/9 last season with a 2.28 BB/9. Correia has benefited from a .182 BABIP this season, providing him with a 2.00 ERA. Meanwhile, his xFIP sits at 3.21. He throws quite a few pitches, but none of them are too difficult to handle. He lacks a true strikeout pitch, hence the low K/9. Over his last two starts, his velocity has dropped 1-2 MPH compared to his usual rate.

More Links

Brian McCann will actually return to the lineup today. Here is DOB’s story.

AJC quotes following Saturday’s loss.

Mark Bowman on Chipper Jones’ soreness potentially leading to more time off.

As expected, Gearrin was optioned to Triple-A before today’s game.

Update (4:45p): Jair Jurrjens struck out four batters and allowed four hits and one earned run while walking three in seven strong innings for Triple-A Gwinnett today. While that line looks good, he only threw 54 strikes out of 93 pitches.

Around the NL East

Bryce Harper impressed in his Major League debut last night. He finished the game with a single, a sac fly and an outfield assist when he nailed a runner at the plate from left field.

 

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We will put forth our best effort to update the latest news and discussion on this post.

The Braves Could Learn From The Brewers

April 26, 2012 at 7:00 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Typically you will find us posting about things when they are topical. For example, lineup optimization when Jason Heyward in penciled in the seven hole. Or the optimal bullpen setup after Chad Durbin blows a one-run game. Today, I am taking a somewhat different approach.

I consider the Atlanta organization to be one of the most intelligent in baseball. Keep in mind, I am a writer located nearly 1,000 miles away from Atlanta who has never stepped foot in the Braves front office. Either way, they have successfully put a competitive team on the field for more than two decades. Most markets have not experienced such a luxury.

That being said, the Braves have some things to learn. Today’s lesson comes from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Enter Jonathan Lucroy. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2007 amateur draft, Lucroy made his Major League debut in May 2010. Ever since, he has put up rather average numbers, but remains pretty strong behind the plate. His offense (.265/.313/.391 in 2011) doesn’t compare to Brian McCann’s, but they both start for their respective teams.

Now consider George Kottaras, the Brewers backup catcher. Though he came up with the Boston Red Sox, Kottaras was selected off waivers and signed by the Brewers following the 2009 season. In 124 career games with Milwaukee, he has hit .227/.316/.448. His average may be lower than Lucroy’s, but his slugging percentage is noticeably higher. Kottaras is the Brewers version of David Ross.

The difference between Lucroy and Kottaras mainly lies in their defensive ability and their ages, 25 and 28, respectively. Lucroy also signed a five-year contract last week with a club option worth $13 million if he qualifies for Super Two status or $11 million if not.

Here are the career splits of the four players considered in table format to simplify things:

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG
Brian McCann	.286	.358	.486
Jonathan Lucroy	.263	.312	.378
David Ross	.237	.325	.445
George Kottaras	.229	.313	.434

 

The most important stat for the upcoming lesson is this: in 2012, Kottaras has five plate appearances as a pinch hitter while Ross has zero. This remains true, even though Ross has better career numbers in every category.

Below is a table of Kottaras’ pinch hit appearances this season:

Date	Opponent	Score	Inning	Outs	Outcome
Apr. 6	vs. Cardinals	L 11-2	Bottom 9	1	3-run HR
Apr. 12	@ Cubs	L 0-8	Top 9	2	Groundout
Apr. 14	@ Braves	L 1-2	Top 9	1	Strikeout Looking
Apr. 15	@ Braves	L 4-7	Top 9	2	Strikeout Looking
Apr. 17	vs. Dodgers	L 3-4	Bottom 9	1	2-run Double
Apr. 18	vs. Dodgers	T 2-2	Bottom 10	1	Walk
Apr. 23	vs. Houston	W 6-5	Bottom 8	2	Walk

 

There is one common denominator in Kottaras’ appearances – he appears late in games, regardless of the score. Not only did he appear in games that were out of reach, he also appears in close games that have potential to carry into extra innings. One has to admire the “guts” of Ron Roenicke, such a courageous man who dare use his only substitute option at catcher in such games. Actually no, that was a joke.

Ross, one of the best bench bats in baseball, has yet to appear as a pinch hitter this year. In fact, he only encountered 10 plate appearances as a substitute in 2011. Kottaras is already seven deep, yet the Brewers have played just 19 games this season.

Imagine the following scenario: Ross pinch hits for the pitcher’s spot in the eighth inning of a one-run game. The outcome of Ross’ at bat does not matter, but know that McCann stays in the game. Let’s say the Braves tied the game and are now going to extras. McCann trips on the top step of the dugout and injures his ankle – he can no longer play.

First, I feel bad for McCann. What a terrible injury. Moreover, the Braves are forced to use an emergency catcher. Worst case scenario, you lose the game due to some terrible mistake. Best case scenario, Ross makes an impact at the plate, like he is supposed to.

McCann has missed a total of 59 games in his career. Later this week, he will have played in his 900th game. I think we can conclude that McCann isn’t “injury prone.” I’m no oddsmaker, but the odds of McCann injuring himself in a game when Ross pinch hits is slim to none. Much less, if done correctly with Ross pinch hitting late, it should not be much of a factor.

The reason Ross is such a valuable commodity is due to his ability to hit both left- and right-handed pitching. Against lefties, he has the highest career OPS (illustrated below). Against righties, he has the third highest career OPS.

Player	OPS vs. LHP	OPS vs. RHP
Juan Francisco	0.554	0.861
Jack Wilson	0.717	0.660
Matt Diaz	0.876	0.687
Eric Hinske	0.671	0.796
David Ross	0.782	0.768

Considering Diaz typically starts against left-handed pitchers, Ross is the best option to come off the bench. Therefore, it is only logical for Ross to get a chance against a left-handed reliever late in a close game, or even a right-handed pitcher to garner some at bats.

Unfortunately, the Braves have played 19 games this season and Ross has yet to appear in just one game as a pinch hitter. As recently as Sunday, the Braves were down two runs in the bottom of the ninth against the Diamondbacks. With one out, Jack Wilson, faced closer J.J. Putz and ultimately flied out. A quick look at our chart above and Ross’ career OPS is more than 100 points higher than Wilson’s. In fact, Wilson was the worst possible choice to face a right-handed pitcher in this scenario. It’s not the result of the fly out that is concerning, it is the process. Sure, the Braves were down two with the bases empty, but heck, it couldn’t hurt to give Ross an extra at bat or allow him to try to bring the game within one. After all, Putz did just give up a home run to Juan Francisco.

I understand that there is a side of baseball that we are not exposed to as fans and writers, but I can’t imagine there hasn’t even been one scenario that Ross could have appeared in.

In short, I am not expecting a dramatic change. In fact, I would be surprised if Ross pinch hits even one time by the end of April. All I am asking is that Fredi at least give the guy a chance.

The Process Versus The Brewers

April 14, 2012 at 6:23 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Due to some unforeseen circumstances, I wasn’t able to put together starting pitcher previews, but I still wanted to get this up before today’s game. My apologies, folks.

The Process Versus The Brewers

The Process Versus The Astros

April 9, 2012 at 1:31 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves

Here is “The Process Versus The Astros,” for the upcoming series at Minute Maid Park. You can either view the PDF on the site or click the link below to download and print it.

Process Versus the Astros

If you have any questions about the data, the post itself, downloading the document, etc. leave a comment in the section below and I will do my best to help you out.

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