The Best and Worst Signings of 2009
October 11, 2009 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Economic Analysis, Front Office, Transaction Analysis, Transactions
Looking back at the free agent market in 2009, there were plenty of busts and plenty of goldmines. The purpose of this research was to find out which signings were the best and worse. For brevity’s sake, I limited this study to free agents who signed a major league deal worth at least $1,000,000. The math I used was simple. I took the 89 players, added their collective average salaries (over the course of the deal), and divided it by their collective WAR (Wins Above Replacement). This gave me the average amount clubs paid per WAR in 2009. That figure $4,518,279–nearly identical to the $4.5 million clubs paid in 2008. I then multiplied each player’s WAR by $4,518,279 and subtracted their salaries to see which player netted his team the most on-field production beyond his salary. The results may surprise you:
| Player | 2010 Salary | WAR | Team | WAR$-Salary |
| Bobby Abreu | $5,000,000 | 2.6 | LAA | $6,975,811 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | $4,000,000 | 0.8 | SF | -$315,135 |
| Garret Anderson | $2,500,000 | -0.9 | ATL | -$6,645,473 |
| Brad Ausmus | $1,000,000 | 0.6 | LAD | $1,763,649 |
| Luis Ayala | $1,300,000 | 0.0 | MIN | -$1,300,000 |
| John Bale | $1,200,000 | 0.1 | KC | -$739,392 |
| Joe Beimel | $2,000,000 | 0.3 | WSH | -$618,176 |
| Casey Blake | $5,833,333 | 4.3 | LAD | $13,972,816 |
| Willie Bloomquist | $3,100,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$3,100,000 |
| Milton Bradley | $10,000,000 | 1.1 | CHC | -$4,933,311 |
| Russell Branyan | $1,400,000 | 2.8 | SEA | $11,497,028 |
| Doug Brocail | $2,750,000 | -0.5 | HOU | -$5,053,041 |
| A.J. Burnett | $16,500,000 | 3.1 | NYY | -$2,221,148 |
| Pat Burrell | $8,000,000 | -0.6 | TBR | -$10,763,649 |
| Daniel Cabrera | $2,600,000 | -0.3 | WSH | -$3,981,824 |
| Orlando Cabrera | $4,000,000 | 0.7 | OAK | -$775,743 |
| Bartolo Colon | $1,000,000 | 0.2 | CHW | -$78,784 |
| Alex Cora | $2,000,000 | 0.0 | NYM | -$2,000,000 |
| Craig Counsell | $1,000,000 | 2.8 | MIL | $11,897,028 |
| Joe Crede | $2,500,000 | 1.8 | MIN | $5,790,946 |
| Juan Cruz | $6,000,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$6,000,000 |
| Ryan Dempster | $13,000,000 | 3.6 | CHC | $3,581,893 |
| Adam Dunn | $10,000,000 | 1.1 | WSH | -$4,933,311 |
| Alan Embree | $2,250,000 | -0.1 | COL | -$2,710,608 |
| Adam Everett | $1,000,000 | 0.9 | DET | $3,145,473 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | $4,625,000 | 0.7 | KC | -$1,400,743 |
| Brian Fuentes | $8,750,000 | 0.4 | LAA | -$6,907,567 |
| Rafael Furcal | $10,000,000 | 3.3 | LAD | $5,200,068 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | $1,000,000 | -0.4 | OAK | -$2,842,433 |
| Jon Garland | $7,250,000 | 2.4 | ARI | $3,804,595 |
| Jason Giambi | $5,250,000 | -0.3 | OAK | -$6,631,824 |
| Tom Glavine | $1,000,000 | 0.0 | ATL | -$1,000,000 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | $2,000,000 | 0.2 | SEA | -$1,078,784 |
| Jerry Hariston Jr. | $2,000,000 | 1.0 | CIN | $2,606,081 |
| Mike Hampton | $2,000,000 | 0.9 | HOU | $2,145,473 |
| Mark Hendrickson | $1,500,000 | 0.5 | BAL | $803,041 |
| Eric Hinske | $1,500,000 | 0.8 | PIT | $2,184,865 |
| Trevor Hoffman | $6,000,000 | 1.5 | MIL | $909,122 |
| Bob Howry | $2,750,000 | 0.4 | SF | -$907,567 |
| Orlando Hudson | $3,800,000 | 2.9 | LAD | $9,557,636 |
| Raul Ibanez | $10,500,000 | 4.1 | PHI | $8,384,933 |
| Cesar Izturis | $2,500,000 | 1.3 | BAL | $3,487,906 |
| Randy Johnson | $8,000,000 | 0.4 | SF | -$6,157,567 |
| Gabe Kapler | $1,000,000 | 1.2 | TBR | $4,527,298 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | $7,666,667 | 1.7 | ATL | $163,672 |
| Mark Kotsay | $1,500,000 | -0.3 | BOS | -$2,881,824 |
| Mike Lincoln | $2,000,000 | -1.0 | CIN | -$6,606,081 |
| Braden Looper | $5,500,000 | -0.9 | MIL | -$9,645,473 |
| Felipe Lopez | $3,500,000 | 4.4 | ARI | $16,766,758 |
| Mark Loretta | $1,250,000 | -0.2 | LAD | -$2,171,216 |
| Derek Lowe | $15,000,000 | 2.7 | ATL | -$2,563,580 |
| Brandon Lyon | $4,250,000 | 0.7 | DET | -$1,025,743 |
| Damaso Marte | $4,000,000 | -0.1 | NYY | -$4,460,608 |
| Aaron Miles | $2,450,000 | -1.3 | CHC | -$8,437,906 |
| Guillermo Mota | $2,350,000 | -0.1 | LAD | -$2,810,608 |
| Jamie Moyer | $6,500,000 | 0.6 | PHI | -$3,736,351 |
| Joe Nelson | $1,300,000 | -0.4 | TBR | -$3,142,433 |
| Darren Oliver | $3,655,000 | 1.5 | LAA | $3,254,122 |
| Chan Ho Park | $2,500,000 | 1.6 | PHI | $4,869,730 |
| Carl Pavano | $1,500,000 | 3.7 | CLE | $15,542,501 |
| Brad Penny | $5,000,000 | 2.5 | BOS | $6,515,203 |
| Oliver Perez | $12,000,000 | -0.8 | NYM | -$15,684,865 |
| Andy Pettitte | $5,500,000 | 3.3 | NYY | $9,700,068 |
| Nick Punto | $4,250,000 | 1.2 | MIN | $1,277,298 |
| Horacio Ramirez | $1,800,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$1,800,000 |
| Manny Ramirez | $22,500,000 | 2.6 | LAD | -$10,524,189 |
| Tim Redding | $2,250,000 | 0.1 | NYM | -$1,789,392 |
| Edgar Renteria | $9,250,000 | 0.3 | SF | -$7,868,176 |
| Dennys Reyes | $1,500,000 | 0.2 | STL | -$578,784 |
| Arthur Rhodes | $2,000,000 | 1.0 | CIN | $2,606,081 |
| Juan Rivera | $4,250,000 | 3.5 | LAA | $11,871,285 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | $12,333,333 | 0.3 | NYM | -$10,951,509 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | $1,500,000 | 0.8 | HOU | $2,184,865 |
| David Ross | $1,500,000 | 1.7 | ATL | $6,330,338 |
| CC Sabathia | $23,000,000 | 6.0 | NYY | $4,636,488 |
| Takashi Saito | $1,500,000 | 0.4 | BOS | $342,433 |
| Brian Shouse | $1,550,000 | -0.1 | TBR | -$2,010,608 |
| John Smoltz | $5,500,000 | 1.5 | BOS | $1,409,122 |
| Russ Springer | $3,300,000 | 0.4 | OAK | -$1,457,567 |
| Willy Taveras | $3,125,000 | -0.3 | CIN | -$4,506,824 |
| Mark Teixeira | $22,500,000 | 5.2 | NYY | $1,451,623 |
| Koji Uehara | $5,000,000 | 1.6 | BAL | $2,369,730 |
| Jason Varitek | $5,000,000 | 1.3 | BOS | $987,906 |
| Ramon Vazquez | $2,000,000 | 0.0 | PIT | -$2,000,000 |
| David Weathers | $3,900,000 | -0.8 | CIN | -$7,584,865 |
| Ty Wigginton | $3,000,000 | -0.3 | BAL | -$4,381,824 |
| Randy Wolf | $5,000,000 | 3.0 | LAD | $8,818,244 |
| Kerry Wood | $10,250,000 | 0.4 | CLE | -$8,407,567 |
| Gregg Zaun | $1,500,000 | 1.8 | BAL | $6,790,946 |
The five best signs of 2009 are as follows:
Number Five – Juan Rivera. 3 years, $12,750,000. 3.5 WAR.
Rivera hit .287/.332/.478 (.348 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 12.8. It was, by far, Rivera’s most valuable season.
Number Four – Craig Counsell. 1 year, $1,000,000. 2.8 WAR.
Counsell hit .285/.357/.408 (.336 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 6.4. It was Counsell’s most valuable season since he posted a WAR of 3.4 in 2005.
Number Three – Casey Blake. 3 years, $17,000,000. 4.3 WAR.
Blake hit .280/.363/.468 (.354 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 8.4. His next most valuable season came in 2004 (3.3 WAR), making it by far Blake’s most productive season.
Number Two – Carl Pavano. 1 year, $1,500,000. 3.7 WAR.
Pavano pitched 199 and 1/3 innings with the Twins and Indians, posting a 3.77 K/BB ratio and 5.10 ERA. The only season in which Pavano posted a higher WAR was 2004, the year he posted a 4.4 WAR which prompted the Yankees to sign him to a nearly $40 million contract that they’ll forever regret.
Number One – Felipe Lopez. 1 year, $3,500,000. 4.6 WAR.
Lopez hit .310/.383/.427 (.356 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 7.6. He was also worth 4.6 WAR in 2005.
And the five worst signs of 2009:
Number Five – Braden Looper. 1 year, $5,500,000. -0.9 WAR.
Looper pitched 194 and 2/3 innings, despite leading the league in ER allowed (113) and HR allowed (39).
Number Four – Pat Burrell. 2 years, $16,000,000. -0.6 WAR.
Burrell hit just .221/.315/.367 (.304 wOBA) in 476 PA’s, serving almost exclusively as the DH.
Number Three – Manny Ramirez. 2 years, $45,000,000. 2.6 WAR.
The suspension undoubtedly hurt Manny’s productivity, as he notched only 431 PA’s. Despite hitting .290/.418/.531 (.396 wOBA), he have a lot back in the field (-9.2 UZR) and was overall worth just 2.6 WAR.
Number Two – Francisco Rodriguez. 3 years, $37,000,000. 0.3 WAR.
Francisco Rodriguez pitched 68 innings with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.309 WHIP, and a 73-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not exactly “closer” stats.
Number One – Oliver Perez. 3 years, $36,000,000. -0.8 WAR.
Oliver Perez only pitched 66 painful innings, posting a 6.82 ERA, a 1.924 WHIP, and a 62-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s totally amazing to me that Omar Minaya still has his job.
More on Quentin-McLouth
October 10, 2009 at 2:51 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Transactions
First of all, let me start by saying I have no agenda here. In no way am I “lobbing” for the Braves to trade Nate McLouth for Carlos Quentin. I’m sure there are twenty better ways to acquire a right-handed power hitter and I bet Frank Wren is already diligently exploring nineteen of them. I doubt anyone of importance when it comes to baseball decisions reads this site. And even if they did, I doubt they would pay any attention to it. I’m not an insider to the game. I don’t really know what’s going on. In fact, everything I write in this space could be complete bullshit. I generally believe that the principles I accept are true, but how do I really know? How does anyone know without working in a front office? How do they even really know then?
But before I launch into an internal philosophical debate, I’d just like to step back and say that the reason I do these trade proposals I do from time to time is because they fascinate me. I like to examine them from every angle. I like to find that perfect match. It’s fun to me. Nothing more, not of any particularly useful quality other than entertainment. Though that’s why we watch and write about and study baseball, right?
Furthermore, it doesn’t bother me if you disagree. I don’t believe that things I write along these lines are inherently right (i.e. I don’t think the Braves absolutely should do what I say. They’re a lot more knowledgeable, intelligent, and capable than me). It’s the discussion and the debate I enjoy. The types of readers I’m lucky enough to have attracted are exactly the type that I had hoped to–rational, respectful, and intelligent people more concerned with the truth and the process than the product. And I certainly don’t believe my opinion is better or more important than their opinion is.
My point is, I’m just doing this for fun. I not only don’t think these trade proposals should be taken as dogmatic*, I don’t even think they should be taken seriously. I just want to encourage intelligent discussion. Because that’s fun to me.
*I don’t think anything I write should be taken as dogmatic, really. I’m just a blogger, not a cult leader or someone of vast knowledge and experience who really knows what he’s talking about.
With that said, I have a little bit more on the McLouth-Quentin swap I proposed yesterday.
When prompted by the argument that the said proposal wouldn’t work because neither team would be dealing from a position of depth and it would subsequently create new holes (it was a very fair and good argument. Probably better than the one I’m about to make), this was my response:
I still think Atlanta and Chicago would probably both like to get that type of deal done. Chicago is looking for a LH bat to the point that they’ll move a RH bat to get one. Their best offensive player last year was Jim Thome. He hit .249/.372/.493 with 23 HR and was subsequently dealt in August. He was actually 3rd on the team in HR, behind Jermaine Dye (27), a RH-bat that most likely won’t return, and the right-handed Paul Konerko (28), whose contract expires after next year (2010). Though other than Jim Thome–who will not return to the team in 2010, there was not a legitimate left-handed bat on the team. A.J. Pierzenski, but he’s A.J. Pierzenski. And he only hit .300/.311/.425 with 13 HR. Chris Getz, playing 2B and making 415 PA’s (they could use a 2B, perhaps the Braves could include Kelly/Prado/Infante and get something else useful in return. A bullpen arm, maybe?), posted a .670 OPS with 2 HR. Though he did steal 25 bases and was caught only twice, it’s hard to have much of an impact when you’re batting average is .261, your OBP is .324, and you hit only 2 HR (.347 SLG%). The other lefties they had in 2009 include Scott Podsednik, who, in an extremely hit-lucky season (.341 BABIP), hit .304/.353/.412 with 7 HR (exactly one fifth of his career total); DeWayne Wise, who had a .628 OPS and 2 HR in 153 PA’s before basically being released; Mark Kotsay, who looks like he probably should’ve retired in 2006; and Jerry Owens, who has a career minor league OPS of .732. Point is, the White Sox need a LH-bat. Bad.
Also, given their current financial situation, the White Sox are not in a position to be aggressive on the Free Agent market this Winter. Not that the Free Agent market this winter is particularly good with regards to left-handed bats–Adam LaRoche, Johnny Damon, Russell Branyan, Rick Ankiel, and Bobby Abreu are your best options–but they don’t have the financial flexibility to acquire one of those guys, anyway. Also, they seem fairly married to their veterans. After all, four of them were around in 2005 when they (albeit improbably) won a World Series (Podsednik, Konerko, Pierzenski, and Buehrle), and they just acquired a few new toys they’re in love with (Peavy and Rios). The White Sox think they can win with this group, especially with all the young talent currently emerging (Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, John Danks, Tyler Flowers and Gavin Floyd). So moving a veteran to provide financial flexibility isn’t really an option for them, I wouldn’t think.
But, with their veteran core departing soon, 2010 may be their last chance to win with this group. And they’ve got the pitching to do it (Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Garcia is a pretty damn good rotation). To have a realistic shot of competing in the AL Central they need to do two things. First of all, they need to add a left-handed bat or two. The whole point about financial flexibility is this: they’re not going to be able to acquire a good left-handed bat unless they make a trade like the one I mentioned, a premium piece they can part with for a premium piece they need. Otherwise, they’ll be sifting through the scrap heap hoping they find the next David Ortiz or Marco Scutaro (he bats right-handed, but that’s not the point). Secondly, they need to minimize their question marks offensively. Quentin, while he has tremendous upside, represents a question mark. He’s had only one consistently good season, 2008, and that one ended a month early because he broke a bat over his wrist (or his wrist over a bat, or maybe they both broke). Additionally, he’s notoriously injury-prone. McLouth, while he doesn’t possess the upside Quentin does, is less of a question mark. The floor is rather high for McLouth. He doesn’t get injured a lot, takes his walks, and steals some bases. So, even in the bad times (when he’s not hitting or not hitting for power), he’s going to be a somewhat productive player. Additionally, he’s a left-handed bat. And we know how badly they need left-handed bats. I think–given they don’t have a lot of other options and want to win now–that McLouth’s left-handed-ness and consistency, for lack of a better word, surpasses Quentin’s upside for the White Sox.
And then there’s the Braves. Almost as bad as the White Sox need a LH bat, the Braves need a RH power bat. Quentin is certainly that. Bill James once said that teams have something they do well even in their losses. For example, the 2009 Atlanta Braves largely get strong performances from their starting staff, even in losses. The Boston Red Sox get on base at a fairly good rate even in their losses, the Yankees hit even in their losses, the Phillies hit home runs in their losses, etc.. I’m of the belief that players are the same way. That is–even when they’re struggling, they’re still good at the thing they do best. Carlos Quentin is good at hitting home runs even if he’s struggling in every other facet of his game. For example, in 2009 Quentin hit .238/.323/.456 in a hitters’ park. A very bad batting average, a fairly modest on-base percentage, and a rather pedestrian SLG%. Still, he managed to hit a HR in 5.3% of his PA’s, nearly twice the league average (2.7%). Even when he struggled, he was able to hit HR’s. So, while he represents a question mark, the Braves know they’re at least getting a prolific Home Run hitter from the right side–their biggest need. A sort of Dave Kingman floor, if you will. And while Dave Kingman certainly isn’t your first choice to supply your team’s right-handed power–given his other limitations, this team needs a right-handed home run hitter to the point that adding a Dave Kingman would have a disproportionate effect and drastically improve the lifeless offense. So Carlos Quentin is a player that the Braves can afford to take a chance on. If he works out, excellent. If not, they’re probably still going to be OK and significantly improved.
With other concerns, like keeping the starting staff together, acquiring a 1B or re-signing LaRoche (something I think they should do if they acquire a RH-hitting OF), and shoring up the back end of the bullpen, the Braves could certainly stand to make a salary-neutral or salary-beneficial move for a cheap, young player. In fact, they’ll probably have to if they want to acquire premium pieces. Otherwise you either have to a) pick your poison and do without the rest or b) sift through the scrap heap. I doubt Wren will want to take many chances off of the scrap heap, given their low success rates, Bobby Cox’s impending retirement, and the fact that this team is built to win now. So this is the type of move both sides not only can make, but need to make.
As far as losing McLouth, yeah, the Braves lose their CF’er and lead-off man. Their center fielder who put up a -1.5 UZR/150 and their lead-off hitter who hit .257/.354/.410 with 11 HR and stole 12 bases at a 66.67% success rate (below the break-even point) in 396 PA’s. I’m not talking about trading a Grady Sizemore or a Curtis Granderson or a Torii Hunter or a Rickey Henderson. Don’t get me wrong, McLouth is a nice complementary piece, but don’t be fooled into thinking he’s a super-star, he ain’t. Additionally, they’ve got a perfectly capable replacement–Ryan Church–who will do just fine until their real CF, the CF they’re planning on building with, Jordan Schafer, is ready for the bigs. The way I see it, having McLouth around is potentially going to do more harm than good when Schafer’s ready. McLouth is the kind of player who is too valuable to sit but who won’t really have a position if he can’t play Center. He wasn’t going to be playing CF and hitting lead-off for much longer, anyway, and if you can move him now to acquire a right-handed power bat, something you desperately need to compete in 2010, I think you do it.
For me, McLouth’s uncertainty is outweighed by Quentin’s right-handed-ness, ability to hit home runs, and upside. And I think a trade that involves McLouth for Quentin makes a lot of sense for both the Braves and White Sox.
Friday Links & NFL Picks
October 9, 2009 at 6:12 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Links, NFL Picks, Transactions
With the Braves’ season done, the hot-stove season has begun. Some links and insights for Friday.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says the Braves may make a run at Matt Holliday. Personally, I think Matt Holliday is a perfect fit for the Braves. He plays good defense and fixes the biggest systematic weakness of the team–the inability to hit for power from the right side. Of course, as a Scott Boras client eligible for Free Agency for the first time, he won’t come cheap. JC Bradbury of Sabernomics speculates he’ll get 4 years, $68 million and Jorge Says No! speculates he’ll get 7 years, $110 million.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Braves will aggressively pursue a right-handed power bat and suggest Nelson Cruz may be a good fit. Cruz is arbitration eligible in 2011 and a free agent after 2014 and the Rangers would presumably want young pitching in return. A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote about Nelson Cruz’s contact rates. The comments section of that article is also rather insightful.
- I’ll make another suggestion with regards to a trade for a right-handed power bat. Carlos Quentin for Nate McLouth. The Braves need a right-handed bat, the White Sox need a left-handed bat. They have similar contract situations, McLouth is owed $12.25 million over the next two years with a $9.4 million net option for 2012. Quentin is arbitration-eligible for the next three years. While McLouth represents financial certainty, Quentin perhaps has the more favorable contract. Neither player lived up to expectations in 2009. McLouth hit .257/.354/.419 with 11 HR in 396 PA’s and played below-average defense in CF for the Braves. Quentin hit .236/.323/.456 with 21 HR in 399 PA’s and played fairly bad defense in LF for the White Sox. McLouth is the superior defender, but Quentin is the superior bat. Quentin’s low average can be attributed to BABIP and injuries, as his contact rates were very good (as well as his walk rates) and his LD% was up from 2008, a year he hit .288/.394/.571 with 36 HR. Quentin is rather injury-prone, but McLouth had his share of injuries in 2009. This is just a purely hypothetical scenario. If it were to happen, I imagine Church would play CF until Schafer is ready and the outfield would eventually consist of, left to right, Quentin, Schafer, Heyward; with Diaz and Church (if he isn’t moved) on the bench. I would have no reservations about starting Church in center for a few months. As Mac Thomason of Braves Journal notes, Church is probably a better Center Fielder than McLouth.
- In the above article David O’Brien also mentions the Braves will likely look to add a reliever or two this off-season to off-set the departure of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Of course, the Braves kicked the tires on acquiring a reliever in July but weren’t able to find a match. My take: adding a “proven closer” is a rather inefficient way to go about shoring up the bullpen. On the other hand, Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves may pursue Free Agent Billy Wagner this off-season. If the price is right, he could be a good fit, but he’ll probably also cost the Braves their 1st round draft pick.
- Speaking of which, the 2010 draft order is out and the Braves will pick 19th (ESPN Insider Subscription Required), provided they don’t sign a Type A Free Agent who was offered arbitration by his previous club.
- Speaking of which, the final Elias Rankings are out. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez project as Type A’s while Garret Anderson and Adam LaRoche project as Type B’s. Tim Hudson missed the cut for Type B status.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com suggests that Frank Wren will try to trade Derek Lowe this winter. My take: if you can trade him, do it, but don’t eat any salary in the process. Lowe will likely be worth his contract, so it’s not necessarily a salary dump from either perspective. Well, it would be, but it’s not like you’re moving a particularly bad contract. Moving a big, valuable contract for financial flexibility is different than moving a big, bad contract.
- David O’Brien writes about which Braves may not return to the team in 2010. I’m not convinced he’s correct about Boone Logan being arbitration eligible in 2010. According to my calculations, he’ll have ~2.6 years of service time which probably makes him a month or two short of Super-2 status. There is a new poll regarding the arbitration-eligible players.
- If you’ve been watching the postseason, you’ve probably noticed that Chip Caray and Joe Simpson are part of the TBS Broadcast team. In my opinion, Joe Simpson has done an outstanding job serving as the Color Analyst for the Phillies-Rockies series. However, Chip Caray has been nothing short of absolutely horehounds. It all started when he botched an extremely important call in the play-in game (game 163) between the Twins and Tigers. He nearly did the exact same thing the following night covering the Yankees-Twins series. As Matt Casey of NBCsports.com notes, ripping on Chip Caray has become an enjoyable October tradition. He’s also been very fond of using the phrase “fisted” to describe a batted ball hit off the handle of the bat, prompting the emergence of this hilarious Twitter page.
- Speaking of announcing, I’m sure most of you know, but Boog won’t be returning to Fox Sports South to call the Braves games next season. He’s accepted a position as the full-time play-by-play announcer for ESPN Radio games. Personally, I really like Boog and I’ll miss having him call the games on a daily basis. That said, this is great news for him as it represents a substantial promotion.
- I can’t wait to watch Nick Blackburn pitch today. He pitched the 1-game playoff last year between the White Sox and Twins, one of the best games I’ve ever seen.
NFL Picks
Browns 3 at Bills 24
Steelers 21 at Lions 20
Cowboys 38 at Chiefs 10
Vikings 44 at Rams 6
Raiders 3 at Giants 41
Buccaneers 3 at Eagles 31
Redskins 21 at Panthers 24
Bengals 21 at Ravens 24
Falcons 31 at 49ers 30
Jaguars 10 at Seahawks 11
Texans 35 at Cardinals 17
Patriots 20 at Broncos 21
Colts 28 at Titans 17
Jets 31 at Dolphins 20
On Bobby Cox’s Return
September 23, 2009 at 4:54 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, NL East News, Transaction Analysis, Transactions
As you all probably know by now, Bobby Cox will return to manage the team in 2010. After that, he’ll fill in an advisory role from 2011-2015. Basically, 2010 is Bobby’s last year managing the Braves. Per David O’Brien:
Just got upstairs after the interview with Frank and Bobby. As you’ve heard, Cox is coming back for one season to manage, then has a five-year contract to be an advisor. They said that with all the misinformation and speculation out there the past couple of days, they went ahead and announced now what they were going to announce after the road trip.
Both again denied that anything close to what reportedly happened in spring training actually happened. Bobby said sure, they’ve had disagreements like any GM and manager, but he laughed at the suggestion that he almost quit because of any of those disagreements.
I think this is a good thing for the organization. Both so it gives the organization another year to find a replacement and ensures Bobby will be around for 6 more years. Having Bobby around is not a bad thing.
There are, generally, only three types of different opinions on Bobby Cox. He’s a polarizing character. He’s been around a long time, and everyone who has been around a long time causes polarization. So, and correct me if I missed one but, there are only three types of opinions on Bobby Cox that I can think of.
1) The “I love him” opinion. This one usually belongs to an older fan or a fan that is more rooted in the traditions of the game. People who don’t really give a shit about statistical analysis at all. And not even pseudo-analysis (RBI, HR, AVG. They simply couldn’t care less about the numbers). Let me stop and say I don’t think this is a bad thing. I learn things from them every day. And if you think they’re bad for the game you probably fit in category two. But anyway, they don’t care that a bunt costs you runs in the long run. They’re intent is to win each game, not to maximize their efficiency. Not that they’re correct in their execution of this strategy, as maximizing efficiency generally leads to more wins, but that’s what they’re about. And I give them an “A” for effort. And even though they could be wrong, you still learn things from “”A” for effort” people in every facet of life. Baseball included.
2) The second type of opinion is the “I hate him” opinion. This one generally belongs to the younger fan. The 15-to-29-year-old fan that thinks they know a lot more about the game than they actually do. They criticize Bobby Cox for playing Francoeur then they criticize Bobby Cox for sitting Francoeur. They criticize Bobby for using Moylan then they criticize him for not using Moylan. They criticize Bobby for using Prado then they criticize him when he sits Prado. These are just a few examples of the copious amounts of complaining these people do. Not that I completely discourage the complaining. I don’t think the entire spectrum of one’s baseball discussion should revolve around Manager’s failings, though. The larger problem is that they fail to see the bigger picture. The fact that a manager makes a sub-optimal decision he has much less impact than you actually think. And people constantly rattle off things like, “Bobby cost us the win tonight”. Like I always say, if there was a manager that was worth 5 wins, teams would pay him $20 million. No such character exists.
3) The “I really don’t care” opinion. This one is shared by those most in-touch with the game today (not necessarily the past), the most statistically savvy that actually know what they’re talking about. The reason they don’t care is because they realize what goes on behind the scenes is much more important than his on-field decisions. The on-field decisions, while they have some negative impact, are far outweighed by his ability to manage the clubhouse and get the most out of his players. So, as long as he’s doing that, he’s doing his job. And Bobby Cox has certainly done his job. Realizing that managers don’t have very much impact, they’re rather indifferent on the issue. Should he actually be costing the teams wins, perhaps they may be more inclined to take an opinion on the issue.
The consensus among good baseball fans is that this is–at worst–a no impact move and at best a good move.
Braves Record and Roster Moves
September 21, 2009 at 3:21 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Transaction Analysis, Transactions
The Braves have made 4 rather significant playing time decisions throughout the course of the season. First, they optioned Schafer to AAA and acquired Nate McLouth. Second, they benched Kelly Johnson in favor of Martin Prado. Third, they traded Jeff Francoeur for Ryan Church. Lastly, they traded Casey Kotchman for Adam LaRoche.
For the first 50 games, the 50 games preceding the first major roster change, the Braves were typically using a line-up that looked like this:
1. Kelly Johnson – 2B
2. Yunel Escobar – SS
3. Chipper Jones – 3B
4. Brian McCann – C
5. Garret Anderson – LF
6. Jeff Francoeur – RF
7. Casey Kotchman – 1B
8. Jordan Schafer – CF
They went 25-25 in those 50 games, a .500 winning percentage. After McLouth was acquired, the line-up typically looked like this:
1. Nate McLouth – CF
2. Yunel Escobar – SS
3. Chipper Jones – 3B
4. Brian McCann – C
5. Garret Anderson – LF
6. Casey Kotchman – 1B
7. Jeff Francoeur – RF
8. Kelly Johnson – 2B
The Braves went 11-15 over their next 26 games, a .423 winning percentage. The Braves then benched Kelly Johnson in favor of Martin Prado. The line-up then typically looked like this:
1. Nate McLouth – CF
2. Martin Prado – 2B
3. Chipper Jones – 3B
4. Brian McCann – C
5. Garret Anderson – LF
6. Yunel Escobar – SS
7. Casey Kotchman – 1B
8. Jeff Francoeur – RF
9 games later, the Braves had gone 5-4, a .566 winning percentage, when they traded Jeff Francoeur for Ryan Church. The line-up then typically looked like this:
1. Nate McLouth – CF
2. Martin Prado – 2B
3. Chipper Jones – 3B
4. Brian McCann – C
5. Garret Anderson – LF
6. Yunel Escobar – SS
7. Mayan Diurch – RF
8. Casey Kotchman – 1B
After 18 more games, and going 11-7 (.611 W%) in those 18 games, the Braves pulled the deadline deal swapping LaRoche for Kotchman. The line-up has since typically looked like this:
1. Nate McLouth – CF
2. Martin Prado – 2B
3. Chipper Jones – 3B
4. Brian McCann – C
5. Garret Anderson – LF
6. Yunel Escobar – SS
7. Adam LaRoche – 1B
8. Mayan Diurch – RF
The Braves have gone 27-19 with this line-up, a .587 winning percentage.
Overall, the Braves have gone 54-45 (.545) since they got rid of Schafer, 43-30 (.589) since they benched KJ, 38-26 (.594) since they got rid of Francoeur, and 27-19 (.587) since they acquired LaRoche.
I only mention this because I wanted to see if Chipper was really right and trading for LaRoche completely turned this team around. LaRoche has been very good since he’s come back to the Braves, but there’s not much evidence to suggest LaRoche is the sole reason for the Braves’ better play. If anything, getting rid of Francoeur was what helped the most. But I think it’s everything. Getting rid of one out machine at a time. All together, they’re in good shape now. Alas, it was assymbled too late.
Saturday Post
September 19, 2009 at 6:04 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Daily Post, Philadelphia Philthies, Transactions
Happy Saturday, everyone. New Elias Rankings are out via MLBTR. Adam LaRoche had previously dropped out of Type B status, but he’s pulled back into Type B. He’s still on the border, but I think he has a good chance of finishing the season as a Type B. If we need any further evidence that this system simply doesn’t work, Chris Coghlin, a rookie, would be a Type B if he were a FA tomorrow but Nyjer Morgan, who will be a 5-win player this year, would not.
Tim Hudson may be inching towards Type B, though I don’t find that very relevant.
Here’s my off-season time-line for this space: Once the season is finished, I’ll write a review of the year much like I did during the all-star break and suggest the Braves’ off-season needs. After that, I’ll be doing prospects almost exclusively, with a few trade speculation pieces and covering all the transactions. With the prospects, I’m going to be doing a year in review piece on the farm in general, a year in review piece for every one of this year’s top 40 prospects, assemble my list of 2010 top 40 prospects, and write them up much the same way I did last year. The Arizona Fall League will be covered extensively from a Braves fan’s perspective and the other Winter Leagues involving both Braves players and prospects. When the projections come out I’ll do some work with them, no doubt. I’ll cover Spring Training, though mostly just transactions and races, not the general play of regulars. And at that point, the season will be here. Hopefully it ends better than this one is looking like.
Game Last Night
Terrible. I did a Q&A over at Macho Row and here’s what I wrote about the pitching match-up last night:
I don’t know what to expect from Hudson, he’s made three starts all season. So you have to like Happ in that one.
Though, if I’d known Happ would be out of the game after 3 and the Braves would have to face Kyle Kendrick(!) thereafter, I would’ve responded quite differently. There’s no excuse for not scoring more off of that guy. I mean, this is a guy who was allowing runs at a Jeff Ridgeway rate in Spring Training this year. He’s not good.
This Video Says It All:
Rumors of the Braves’ Death are Much Exaggerated
September 17, 2009 at 3:39 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Daily Post, Defense, Pitching, Player Analysis, Transactions
Man, look at the life this team is showing. Count it, though, that’s two epic defensive fails resulting in blown K-Rod saves and losses for the Mets. One against the Yankees when a Kelly Johnson dropped pop-up deja-vu allowed Teixeira to score from 2nd. And of course, the one last night. I didn’t watch it, but I read Mac Thomason’s recap over at Braves Journal. He does a good job, as always, but this opening paragraph is particularly funny, so I’ll quote it here:
If I were a Mets blogger — well, I’d kill myself, but assuming that somehow I had friends and family and they managed to restrain me — I’d be pretty upset right about now, 22 games out or not. The Mets had sixteen hits but only scored five runs, leaving fourteen men on base, and their closer blew the save in the ninth before losing the game when a ball hit Daniel Murphy, caromed straight up in the air, and Murphy dropped it, allowing the winning run to score from second on a ball that went sixty feet. That’s the sort of thing you’d expect from the sort of organization that would trade for Jeff Francoeur.
Yep. Pretty much. We all know that Daniel Murphy is a terrible defensive player, so it’s not like we completely didn’t see anything like this happen, but the timing is awful. For the Mets at least. Not to mention K-Rod seems gassed and if I were Minaya I’d shut him down. Oh, and this picture is pretty funny. This is a Braves blog, though. I’ve got a lot to cover today, so I’m doing it rapid fire.
Standings
East:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Philadelphia | 84 | 60 | – | +105 |
| Florida | 78 | 68 | 7.0 | +13 |
| Atlanta | 77 | 68 | 7.5 | +75 |
| NY Mutts | 63 | 83 | 22.0 | -84 |
| Washington | 50 | 95 | 34.5 | -146 |
Wild Card:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 83 | 64 | – | +78 |
| San Francisco | 79 | 67 | 3.5 | +44 |
| Florida | 78 | 68 | 4.5 | +13 |
| Atlanta | 77 | 68 | 5.0 | +75 |
| Chicago (N) | 75 | 69 | 6.5 | +32 |
Yep. There goes. The Braves gained ground on San Francisco last night as they lost to Colorado. Colorado’s remaining schedule is tougher than San Francisco, so maybe that’s a good thing. Of course, if Colorado had lost, I’d have said it’s good for the leading team to lose.
Rumors of Bobby Cox’s Impact are Much Exaggerated
So Bobby Cox is thinking about retiring after 2009. My question is, who gives a fuck? If you think the answers to the Braves’ problems come in the form of a new manager, you’re delusional. Manager’s only have so much impact with their on-field decisions. Much less than most people think. Bobby Cox, despite his questionable bullpen usage and loyalties to players who suck, is no different. I guarantee you I can find you 5 worse managerial gaffes than Bobby’s this year. Or even 5 outside of Cincinnati. You can sit here and list all of Bobby’s sub-optimal decisions and I’ll tell you any team has those exact same problems. The real answer to the Braves’ problems was a Matt Holliday or a Manny Ramirez. Not a Fredi Gonzalez or a Ned Yost. Sure, blaming Bobby is easy, but he can’t make people hit home runs.
Vazquez Wants To Stay
Javier Vazquez told Carroll Rogers of the AJC that he wants to stay in Atlanta. The quote:
“Hopefully I’ll be here,” said Vazquez, recently named National League player of the week. “I really want to be here. Hopefully they want me here, too.”
The article also featured a hilarious story about Kenshin Kawakami. MLB Trade Rumors covered the article, and this is what Tim Dierkes had to say about the situation:
Vazquez has been a bona fide ace in his return to the NL, with a 3.01 ERA, 216 strikeouts, and 40 walks in 197.3 innings. He’s signed affordably for next year at $11.5MM. I’ve said it before: signing Hudson and having six starters under control on paper does not equal a surplus. Derek Lowe is 36 and his numbers took an alarming dip this year. And whether Hudson, Kawakami, and Tommy Hanson can each throw 200 innings next year is an open question. The Braves need a first baseman, an outfield bat, and a closer, but trading Vazquez for a hitter might just create a new hole.
I don’t really disagree. I think if the Braves can lock up Vazquez they have to do it. He’s been too good and if he’s willing to take a discount, you jump on that like white on rice. The problem may be the no-trade clause to Western division teams he seeks. I’m not sure the Braves need all three things Tim suggested, but I agree that keeping all 6 SP is optimal.
So far, we’ve seen rumors suggesting the Braves may extend both Vazquez and Hudson. I think doing so is the correct move on both fronts.
Derek Lowe’s Blister
You know, that blister may’ve been a blessing in disguise. Lowe wasn’t pitching well, couldn’t locate anything and his sinker was moving on a horizontal plane more than a vertical one. The key to Lowe’s season last year was his curveball/slider*. That pitch was 29 runs above average last year. This year? It’s 7.1 runs below average. I don’t know what’s going on, but that was the pitch when he dominated the Phillies on opening day. He needs to get that back.
*Fangraphs and most announcers call it a slider and it charts as a slider, but Derek Lowe says it’s a curveball. One time in Spring Training McCann caused a balk because he kept throwing down a slider sign and Derek Lowe said “I don’t throw a slider”. It looks and behaves like a slider, perhaps it’s thrown like a curveball. It has distinct curveball properties. It doesn’t move as much as a traditional curveball, though. It moves like a Brad Lidge slider, almost.
A Thought
What if the Braves, instead of acquiring a 1B, move Chipper to 1st and sign Jack Wilson. Jack Wilson sucks offensively, but he’s one of the best defensive SS in the game, and will probably be a 2-win player this year just because of defense alone. Move Yunel to 3rd and have the most amazing defensive left side of the infield in baseball. Of course, this doesn’t fix the Braves’ biggest systematic weakness, and perhaps contributes to it. But, if you can sign Wilson for cheap (~$3-5 million or so), you’ve got value there. And then, maybe you can go out and get a Holliday or a Bay. And that fixes the biggest systematic weakness. Something like:
1. McLouth
2. KJ/Prado
3. Chipper
4. Holliday
5. McCann
6. Yunel
7. Church/Diaz/Heyward/Schafer
8. Wilson
It could work. Not my favorite idea, but something to consider. It should be noted that the Mariners hold a $8.4 million dollar option for Wilson’s 2010 season with a $0.6 million dollar buyout. Smart money’s on the buyout.
The Braves need to get better defensively with the pitching staff they’ve got. They’re 23rd in baseball in defensive efficiency. Getting Garret Anderson out of there in favor of a better defensive LF (preferably Holliday), moving Chipper to 1B, moving Yunel to 3rd, and adding an extremely gifted defensive SS would certainly improve the defense. Crazy idea, I know. I don’t think it’s that good of an idea, but it’s not that bad either.
Man, getting that Lowe contract off the books would really help. Speaking of which, Around the Majors took a look at the Lowe contract on August 19th. It’s worth a read and mostly right. The thing is, when your highest paid starting pitcher is arguably your worst, it’s annoying.
That’s all I got.
SWEEEEEEPPPPPPPPP
Go Braves!
UPDATE:
NFL Picks
New England 31 at NY Jets 30
New Orleans 27 at Philadelphia 41
St. Louis 10 at Washington 24
Cincinnati 13 at Green Bay 29
Minnesota 44 at Detroit 11
Houston 7 at Tennessee 23
Oakland 20 at Kansas City 21
Carolina 20 at Atlanta 24
Arizona 28 at Jacksonville 38
Tampa Bay 10 at Buffalo 38
Seattle 24 at San Francisco 17
Baltimore 12 at San Diego 17
Pittsburgh 11 at Chicago 10
Cleveland 10 at Denver 21
NY Giants 44 at Dallas 28
Indianopolis 24 at Miami 13
Loading ...
