Another Mets Sweep?
September 25, 2009 at 1:35 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Daily Post, Draft, Farm System, Minor Leagues, Series Preview
Elias Rankings Update
The new Elias Rankings are out courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.
- Adam LaRoche remains a Type B and puts some distance between him and the “no-status” status.
- Garret Anderson, against all odds, remains a Type B by a fairly large margin.
- Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano remain in no jeopardy of falling out of Type A status.
- Tim Hudson may have an outside shot at achieving Type B status, but he’s a fairly large ways away (Tim’s at 53.333 points, Pelfrey, the highest on the list who isn’t a Type B, is at 58.409, and the lowest Type B, John Lannan (whom Kelly has a career 1.133 OPS against, gotta squeeze in the agenda!), is at 60.00).
We Swept ‘Em Back-to-Back
Two straight sweeps of the Mets. Not that this deserves any bragging, as it’s probably easy to beat the Mets without Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, J. J. Putz, and Johan Santana. But it still feels good to sweep the Mets. Always. Never gets old.
Playoff Chances
Right at 12%. That’s pretty much all wild-card at this point. Perhaps I just cursed the Braves who head into a 10-game stretch where they play 3 at Washington, 3 vs Florida, and 4 more vs Washington. We’ll hope the Braves don’t read this site and try to prove me wrong.
Getting down to it, though, the Braves need to win 10 of their last 10. Seriously, running the table is pretty much the only option. After Colorado lost last night*, they sit at 86-67 and the Braves 82-70. If the Braves go 10-0, they’ll be at 92-70, the inverse of last year’s record. All Colorado has to do is go 6-3 over their final 9 to force a 1-game playoff and 7-2 to win the wild-card. Perhaps the Braves have help on the way, though. Colorado’s final 9 games feature 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 vs. Milwaukee, and 3 @ Los Angeles. There’s a good chance that the Rockies win less than 5 of their final 9. So the Braves chances are still alive. You’ve just gotta run the table.
*Good lord, about time the Rockies lost**. It’s annoying. Earlier in the year, the Braves were on a huge streak and gained no ground on the Phillies. It’s the same story here. Every time the Braves go on their streak, seems like someone else ahead of them follows suit. The only option is to go on an unattainably long hot streak.
**I wrote this post yesterday and the Rockies had just lost their first to the Padres. The Rockies have since lost again, putting the Braves in an even better position.
And you’ve gotta start tonight in Washington.
Series Preview
The Pitching match-ups include Javier Vazquez vs. John Lannan, Tommy Hanson vs. Garrett Mock, and Derek Lowe vs. Livan Hernandez. I like the Braves in all 3 of those. It’s important to take them 1 at a time, though. Meanwhile, the Rockies will be pitted against the likes of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse this weekend. It’s a great opportunity to gain some ground.
Standings
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 86 | 67 | – | +83 |
| Atlanta | 82 | 70 | 3.5 | +87 |
| San Francisco | 82 | 71 | 4.0 | +34 |
| Florida | 82 | 71 | 4.0 | +5 |
The Braves have the best chance of any team of overtaking the Rockies. It’d take a trick they themselves have pulled to overtake them, though (the Braves have won 11 of 13. The Rockies won 21 of 22 to get to the World Series. The Braves need to win 20-21 of their final 23).
Prospect Updates
Earlier, Christian Bethancourt was named the GCL’s number 1 prospect. I didn’t report it because I don’t know anything about GCL players, usually. Baseball America followed up with their Appalachian League Top 20 Prospects. The Cartagena Kid was ranked number 1. Danville also won the Appy league, so it would stand to reason they would have a few in the top 20. Last year’s 2nd rounder, Tyler Stovall, ranked 16th on their list. 2009 4th rounder–Mycal Jones, a toolsy college SS, hit .258 with 19 SB (4 CS), 4 HR, and a .767 OPS, enough to rank 17th on the list. Brett Oberholtzer (LHP), a 2008 8th rounder, also cracked the top-20. The article also mentions two break-out performers who didn’t crack the list:
Two of Danville’s first-year pros made a huge impact in the Appy League but just missed the cut. First baseman and league MVP Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg, a 16th-round pick from Nova Southeastern (Fla.), hit .359 to win the batting title, and his strength and knowledge of the strike zone portend a bright future. Lefthander Chris Masters, an 11th-round pick from Western Carolina, led the league with 85 strikeouts in 70 innings and narrowly missed winning the ERA title at 1.42. He expertly spots an 87-92 mph fastball but needs to refine his secondary stuff.
Games Last Night
Even though the Braves didn’t play, I watched some baseball last night. First the Padres-Rockies. That game was pretty crazy. Then the Giants-Cubs, that one was even crazier. Let’s just take a look at the Win Probability Graphs. First Rockies-Padres:
And the Cubs-Giants:
It was a great day for Braves baseball even if they were off. The Rockies lose (and now have 9 games against tough opponents), the Cubs win (so the Cardinals have to play at least one meaningful game against the Rockies), and the Giants lost, putting them behind the Braves in the Wild Card standings. Great day.
NFL Picks
Packers 34 at Rams 17
Redskins 21 at Lions 10
49ers 20 at Vikings 21
Falcons 34 at Patriots 35
Titans 10 at Jets 17
Chiefs 3 at Eagles 33
Giants 31 at Buccaneers 17
Browns 3 at Ravens 24
Jaguars 21 at Texans 38
Bears 17 at Seahawks 16
Saints 38 at Bills 35
Steelers 27 at Bengals 0
Broncos 9 at Raiders 10
Dolphins 17 at Chargers 34
Colts 27 at Cardinals 21
Panthers 35 at Cowboys 34
I’ve already done Kelly Johnson Fan Club for the upcoming series and I feel like I should be diverting more attention towards getting the Braves in the playoffs (like I can have any impact…) and less to my “KJ needs more playing time” agenda. Although I think the two would probably correlate. So that’s all I’ve got for now. Let’s beat the Nationals tonight, and tomorrow, and Sunday!
Go Braves!
Daily Post
September 11, 2009 at 2:30 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Draft, Farm System, Stat Leaders
Hey! A win! And Derek Lowe was pitching! Weird. Of course, it wasn’t an unusual Lowe win, as he allowed 11 baserunners in 5 and 2/3 innings. He’s got to get it together.
Heyward Named Minor League Player of the Year
We had already learned that USAToday named Jason Heyward their minor league player of the year, but Baseball America has followed suit. That’s good to see. Heyward certainly deserved it. Here’s a few quotes from the article:
And unlike Francoeur, who struggled in his first exposure to Double-A in 2004, Heyward has thrived. In fact, he improved after moving up from high Class A Myrtle Beach to Double-A Mississippi, batting .336/.434/.605 with seven home runs there after batting .296/.369/.519 with 10 homers for the Pelicans.
Taken together—his .314/.399/.557 overall performance in his second full season, plus his ascension into the role of future franchise cornerstone—Heyward was an easy choice as Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year, a singular distinction for a singular talent.
—-snip—-
“We’re always looking for weaknesses we can develop. In all honesty, I’ve spent two months looking for things we can work on, and it sounds crazy, but I can’t find any,” Wellman said. “That’s a credit to his ability to make adjustments. He’s very cerebral. He’ll strike out twice on changeups, and I’ll say, ‘Now maybe there’s something.’ And the next time up, he’ll hit a 2-0 changeup 500 feet.
—-snip—–
In spite of the surface similarities between Heyward and Francoeur, when you break it down, differences are there. The biggest by far comes in their approach at the plate. Francoeur is one of the game’s great free swingers, with just 132 career walks in 2,819 plate appearances. He has struck out 503 times.Heyward? Not so much.
In fact, scouts had difficulty pinning down his skills as a hitter when he was in high school because so many opponents pitched around him—and he rarely went fishing for balls out of the zone. For this, Braves scouting director Roy Clark will be eternally grateful, because it allowed Heyward to slip to the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft.
They also include a chart of players stats during their 2nd full season, comparing Heyward to the likes of Gary Sheffield, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., and our own Chipper Jones. Heyward’s numbers are the most impressive of the bunch. Congratulations to the farm’s crown jewel. He’s made us proud this season.
Which One Would You Rather Have?
Of the following two players, which would you rather have in your starting line-up?:
| BB% | K% | ISO | IF/FB | HR/FB | IP% | LD% | |
| Player A | 7.7% | 11.4% | 0.135 | 14% | 4.1% | 77% | 18% |
| Player B | 10.7% | 18.9% | 0.167 | 12% | 6.8% | 66% | 17% |
Player A is Martin Prado. Player B is Kelly Johnson. Speaking of Kelly Johnson.
Kelly Johnson Fan Club
Kelly has started 12 games since he came off of the disabled list. The Braves are 10-2 in those games and averaging 7.25 runs per game. Kelly had a good performance last night, reaching base 3 times in five tries via a single, a double, and a walk. He boosted his post-DL OPS to .903 with his strong showing last night. Keep him in the line-up!
Wild Card Standings
I suppose this will be the last time I post the wild card standings. I said to myself I’d keep doing it until the Braves are mathematically eliminated, but let’s be honest, they might as well be mathematically eliminated. Here goes:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 81 | 60 | – | +95 |
| San Francisco | 76 | 64 | 4.5 | +39 |
| Florida | 75 | 65 | 5.5 | +13 |
| Chicago (N) | 71 | 67 | 8.5 | +25 |
| Atlanta | 72 | 68 | 8.5 | +59 |
No fucking comment.
Protected Draft Pick Race
If the Braves plan on signing a Type A free agent, they might want to start tanking. They need one of the 15 worst records–between 16th and 30th best records in the league–to secure a protected draft pick. That is, the draft pick isn’t eligible to compensate a club for signing a Type A free agent of theirs. The Braves are currently tied with the Rays and Cubs for the 12th best record. Here’s what those standings look like:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Chicago (N) | 71 | 67 | – | +25 |
| Tampa Bay | 72 | 68 | – | +59 |
| Atlanta | 72 | 68 | – | +59 |
| Seattle | 72 | 69 | 0.5 | -60 |
| Minnesota | 70 | 70 | 2.0 | +10 |
| Chicago (A) | 70 | 71 | 2.5 | +1 |
| Houston | 68 | 72 | 4.0 | -83 |
There’s still a lot of baseball to be played, so hopefully the Rays, Cubs, Twins, and Mariners start winning some games. Check out how freakishly similar (or identical) the Tampa Bay and Atlanta lines are.
Stat of the Day: EqBRR
Equivalent Baserunning Runs, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, is a metric that takes in every baserunning event and converts it to an equivalent number of “runs”. Remember ~10 runs is a win. Basically, this metric allows you to see how valuable each player has been on the basepaths. Other methods, like stolen bases, fall short. Stolen Bases don’t account for non-base-stealing baserunning events and don’t subtract value when you’re caught stealing. It isn’t a perfect metric, but it’s close. I’ve created a few charts. First we have the top-10 most valuable baserunners, a snip, and the most valuable Braves baserunner surrounded by the most proximate places on the master list:
| No. | Name | EQBRR |
| 1. | Michael Bourn | 13.9 |
| 2. | Rajai Davis | 6.3 |
| 3. | David Wright | 5.7 |
| 4. | Jacoby Ellsbury | 5.6 |
| 5. | Chris Getz | 5.4 |
| 6. | Ryan Zimmermann | 5.3 |
| 7. | Ichiro Suzuki | 5.2 |
| 8. | Chase Utley | 5.2 |
| 9. | Dexter Fowler | 5.1 |
| 10. | Carl Crawford | 4.5 |
| —- | ———— | —– |
| 50. | Adam Kennedy | 2.0 |
| 51. | Omar Infante | 2.0 |
| 52. | Emilio Bonafacio | 2.0 |
When your most valuable baserunner a) is a utility player, b) has been out for a good portion of the year, and c) is #51 on the list, your team sucks at baserunning. Now for the antithesis of that list:
| No. | Name | EQBRR |
| 809. | Melvin Mora | -8.8 |
| 808. | Jorge Posada | -7.6 |
| 807. | Kendry Morales | -6.8 |
| 806. | Billy Butler | -6.0 |
| 805. | Carlos Lee | -5.8 |
| 804. | Michael Young | -5.4 |
| 803. | Jim Thome | -5.3 |
| 802. | Elijah Dukes | -5.0 |
| 801. | Yadier Molina | -4.8 |
| 800. | Pedro Feliz | -4.4 |
| —- | ———— | —– |
| 778. | Milton Bradley | -2.9 |
| 777. | Chipper Jones | -2.9 |
| 776. | Matt Wieters | -2.8 |
Casey Kotchman was actually way worse than Chipper, but I didn’t include him. I do this for a reason. If our worst baserunner is #777 and our best is #51 and there’s only half a win of difference between them, you can’t make that much of an impact on the basepaths. It helps, of course. Every little bit helps. But if you’re building a team and try to build it such that the only secondary offensive skill is baserunning, you’re going to have a really fucking shitty offense.
So, those of you who say, “what the Braves need is a true lead-off hitter”, no, no, and fucking no. They need power. Lead-off hitters are overrated.
Off to St. Louis
Jurrjens vs. Pineiro Friday. Hudson vs. Lohse Saturday. Vazquez vs. Carpenter Sunday. Those are some pretty good pitching match-ups. I can’t believe Kyle Lohse is still alive. These games are important for nobody, the Cardinals have a huge lead and the Braves are out of it.
Kelly Johnson Fan Club Round 2
Kelly Johnson has a 1.538 OPS against Piniero in 13 career PA’s. He has a 1.917 OPS against Carpenter in 6 career PA’s. Knowing how fucking terrible Bobby Cox is at making decisions, he’ll probably sit Kelly vs. those two guys and play him against Kyle Lohse, whom he has a .400 OPS against in 10 career PA’s.
That’s all for now.
Go Braves?
The Cartagena Kid Now Resides In My Backyard
August 6, 2009 at 12:01 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Farm System, Pitching, Prospects, Scouting
If you didn’t hear, The Cartagena Kid was promoted to Rome after his last performance and made his South Atlantic League debut tonight. I had the pleasure of being able to attend. Teheran made a few mistakes, but the stuff was incredible and though he gave up a few XBH, I felt like he was in control for most of the game. A quick recap:
As I walked into the stadium the game was about to start. I sat down and immediately began to watch Teheran work. The first inning was unbelievable. He was using both his fastball–which he throws effortlessly in the 92-95 range but can hit 97 with that features a great deal of arm-side tail and some sink–and his sharply breaking curve to simultaneously fool and dominate the hitters. He was hitting his spots, locating his fastball to both sides of the plate, and he was just awesome. He struck out all 3 batters he faced that inning. All three looking. Every batter arguing the call. Every one of them wrong, they were just well placed pitches with a lot of movement that the batters had no chance of getting to.
Teheran figures to get a lot of ground-balls at the big-league level due to the movement on his fastball, and he showed he’s capable of doing this tonight as well. Though things didn’t go as well as they did in the 1st, I was still very impressed. He gave up a double to Joshua Satin, the 2nd batter he faced that inning (after previously getting a groundout). It was the fly-ball down the right-field line type, but it was hit very well. Not to take anything away from Satin, the “kid” has enormous bat speed, which he would also display later. The pitch wasn’t a bad one, fastball in on him. Of course, it tailed in, which probably allowed Satin to put good wood on it. Teheran was then charged with a wild-pitch, but I was sitting 2nd row directly behind home plate and the Catcher should have, by all means, stopped that ball. Satin advanced to 3rd, Teheran walked the batter he was facing, then made one of the mistakes he would that night to some French-Canadian dude. He hung a curveball and it got lined through the 5-6 hole for a single. But with runners at 1st and 2nd Teheran got a double play ball that the incompetent South Atlantic middle infield couldn’t turn and the runners advanced to 2nd and 3rd. Didn’t matter. He got another ground ball to get out of the inning.
Teheran worked a perfect 3rd with a ground out and 2 weakly hit air outs.
The 4th was a three-true-outcomes inning. He struck out the first batter he faced swinging, the allowed a solo homer to the next batter he faced. It was Joshua Satin. Again, the pitch was in. This time it was high and tight. Not a bad pitch at all, Satin was just able to turn on it and pull it over the LF fence. Credit the hitter for that one. The next batter was called out on strikes. Next, the aforementioned French-Canadian hit another solo homer. This was a mistake as well. He left a fastball over the plate. Then the last batter was called out on strikes.
In the 5th, he struck out the first two he faced, then his control started to wobble and he hit a batter and made another mistake that got hit off the wall in the deepest part of the park. The runner at 1st easily scored–running on contact with 2 out. He got a weakly-hit fly ball that Francoeur 2.0 was able to run in and make a nice play on to end the inning and his night.
Overall I was very impressed. He made a few mistakes, sure. But the stuff was phenomenal, the command and control was there for most of the night, and he had the mound presence of a veteran making a rehab start. He worked quickly the entire outing. He’s long and lanky. As long and lanky as everyone says he is. Oh, did I mention he’s eighteen years old(!)? Save the batter Teheran hit, everyone reached base off of him tonight is at least 3 and 1/2 years older than him. The guy who had 6 total bases off of him? He was born in 1984. (Teheran? 1991)
Like I said, I was extremely impressed with this kid. I’m hoping we see more of the same. He gets ground balls, loads of K’s, shows craftyness, dominance, pure stuff, the whole package. This kid’s the real deal. I haven’t been this excited about a prospect that passed through Rome since, well, ever. The Cartagena Kid. Mark it down. Future MLB star.
The Cartagena Kid Has Officially Arrived
July 30, 2009 at 10:59 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Farm System, Pitching, Prospects
When a prospect pitches 8.0 innings allowing 2 hits, a walk, and striking out 11, it’s hard to not get excited. I know it’s only Class Rookie-Advanced Danville, but when the prospect is eighteen years old, it’s even harder to not get excited. I’m talking about Julio Teheran, last years big international signing. The right-hander really did post that line tonight. This marks the 2nd time in 3 outings that Teheran has gone 8 innings–the other he allowed four hits and a walk while striking out only eight. Like I said, hard to not get excited about the way this kid is pitching right now. He’s from Cartagena, Columbia, so I’ve christened him “The Cartagena Kid”. An 18-year old lighting up the Appy league. Imagine what kind of rotation the Braves will have if Randall Delgado and The Cartagena Kid both pan out…
Braves Trade Deadline Preview
July 24, 2009 at 11:34 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Farm System, Prospects, Transactions
So we’ve got the Trade Deadline coming up on July 31st. Exciting times in the baseball world. Just a quick run down, here’s what it means.
- Until 4:00 PM, clubs can file paperwork and trade any player not on the DL without any restrictions.
- A flurry of trades usually happen in the days and hours leading up to this deadline.
- After 4:00 PM, clubs can still make trades, but the involved players have to pass through waivers first. You see a lot of big contracts moved during that period (they’re more likely to clear waivers). Here’s an article on the 4 types of waivers (trade included).
- If a player is put on trade waivers, he either clears and can be traded or he doesn’t and one of the following happens:
- The team that controls the player can pull him back off of waivers. He can’t be placed on trade waivers again that season.
- The claiming team can have the player for nothing provided they assume his contract.
- The two teams can work out a trade for the player.
So it’s not really a deadline. But it sorta is. So we’ll take a look at what we can expect from the Braves this upcoming deadline.
If They Buy: If the Braves decide they need another piece or two, there are two obvious places the club could stand to upgrade. The first, and the most likely to acquire, is another reliever. The Braves were 13th in bullpen ERA in the 1st half and 4 of the relievers were heavily used. Adding a veteran reliever that can pitch in the late innings would take some stress off the bullpen. While the late innings group has been very good, they could use some rest and a shot in the arm. Potential targets include George Sherrill, Danys Baez, Scott Downs, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, John Grabow, Juan Cruz, and Takashi Saito. The other obvious need is for a power bat. Someone with some home-run pop. Considering nobody on the team really has too much home run power, adding a bat who can hit for some power would have a disproportionate effect. But the club has played well without one as of late. 1st Base and either corner outfield position could stand to be upgraded. Interestingly, those are the easiest places to find power-hitters. I won’t list potential candidates, there are too many.
If They Sell: It doesn’t look like the club will be looking to sell, but if they do for some reason, there are a few pieces that could be moved. Javier Vazquez, who has no-trade protection to the nine western division teams, could be moved for massive value. He’s been one of the best starters in baseball. He’s signed through 2010. Two of the Braves’ late-innings bullpen arms are impending free agents–Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Both have been quite good and could also be moved for quite a bit of value. With the emergence of Prado, Kelly Johnson has become an expendable piece as well.
Could They Do Nothing?: Yes. Absolutely. The way the club is playing right now, they really don’t seem to need anything to make a playoff push. Frank Wren is reluctant to trade prospects at this point. He’s already traded away 3 in the McLouth deal and 4 in the Vazquez deal. So doing nothing seems probable. Unwillingness to mortgage the future is a good thing.
Overall, I expect the Braves will probably add a reliever as Mark Bowman noted, but I don’t foresee any major moves. Maybe we’ll see some in August. I don’t know. But this club is playing well right now, and I can’t wait to see what unfolds in the coming week.
Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg
July 20, 2009 at 8:48 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Draft, Farm System, Minor Leagues, Prospects, Q&A, Quotes
I asked Jim Callis, the premier prospects expert at Baseball America, and Kevin Goldstein, the premier prospects expert at Baseball Prospectus, the following question:
What can you tell us about this Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg character who is currently tearing up Appy League pitching for the Danville Braves? He was a blogger favorite from the get-go because of his name, but after his first 23 games, he’s hitting .402/.452/.620. Is he a legitimate prospect? Or is he just having an extremely fluky start to his professional career?
Callis responded by publishing the answer on his Ask BA segment. Here’s his response:
Spanjer-Furstenburg might have the coolest name in pro ball. But at this point, he’s more of a player off to a sizzling start than a real prospect.
A South African, Spanjer-Furstenburg was on his nation’s provisional 2009 World Baseball Classic roster but didn’t make the team. He began his college career at Florida Atlantic but transferred to NCAA Division II Nova Southeastern (Fla.) this year. He set a school record by hitting three homers in one game, and he batted .393 with 15 homers before signing with the Braves as a 16th-round pick.
A 6-foot-2, 235-pound righthanded hitter, Spanjer-Furstenburg played a variety of positions as an amateur but fits best at first base in pro ball. He’s old for the Appy League at 21 and his bat will really have to carry him, but he does have above-average power potential.
And Kevin responded in an email:
Names I want to see on backs of jerseys
That said,
He’s not really a prospect yet. Every team has these guys, and it usually means nothing.
Well, he’s still a blogger favorite even if the prospect guys don’t think he’s a legit prospect yet. They’re not wrong, nobody in the Appy League is really a prospect. Especially not those drafted in the 16th round. Anyway, thanks to Callis and Goldstein for keeping us informed about the blogging community’s favorite Appy Leaguer, Riaan-Spanjer Furstenburg.
The Braves Did Something Called The Draft Today.
June 9, 2009 at 9:54 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Draft, Farm System, Pitching, Player Analysis, Prospects, Scouting
I’d like to start this entry with a personal anecdote:
I got home at about 6:45 PM EST this evening. Anxious to find out who the draft selections thus far had been, who the Braves have picked (if they have), or who is left for them to pick (if they haven’t), I opened up my browser and immediately went to mlb.com. I had heard on the radio that the first 3 were Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate. I was happy to hear that Tate went to the Padres because that moves one of the pitchers that they could have taken down on the draft board and increases our chances of hitting a home run with our pick. I had previously read that the Pirates will draft Sanchez. So I figured we had a pretty good chance of grabbing a super-high upside arm. Back to 6:45 and mlb.com. I open the draft tracker. I saw that 5 and 6 were Hobgood and Wheeler. I almost peed my pants with excitement when I put 2 and 2 together and realized that Matzek was still available. I thought to myself, “No way we pass on an opportunity THIS great.”. The thought of Matzek in our farm was thrilling to me. Absolutely thrilling. Then all the hype I had built up came crashing down into reality when I hit “f5″ (refresh).
Why did all my hype come crashing down? Because instead of taking Tyler Matzek or Aaron Crow or Jacob Turner or Grant Green or Matt Purke or Shelby Miller, we took Mike Minor. I understand why we took Mike Minor. I do, I get it. But I still have every right to be frustrated about it.
First of all, let’s start with the good, because it isn’t Minor’s fault that our organization disappointed me. Minor is probably close to the least risky pick in the draft. He’s a 6’3″ 175 LB Left-Handed Pitcher from Vanderbilt University. He throws a fastball that sits in the 86-89 range (he struggles to hit 89), a slider, a curveball, and a change-up (his best pitch). None of his pitches are above-average, but his command and above-average control make him a very safe bet. He’s basically the classic high floor low ceiling guy. He’s got an excellent chance of making it to the majors. He’s polished. He doesn’t have mechanical issues or control issues or new pitches to develop. He’s had 4 years of college work and he’ll probably make it to the bigs very quickly.
But the ceiling is low. We’re talking a number-3-starter-on-a-good-day low. He’ll most likely never make an all-star team. He won’t be in any sort of conversation for Cy Young, MVP, Rolaids award, etc. The stuff just isn’t there. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but there’s a very, very, very, VERY slim chance that he’ll turn into a legitimately great pitcher.
I’m not upset that he’s in our organization. He’ll make it to the big leagues and be a serviceable back end of the rotation starter. There’s little chance he won’t make it, and we’ll be getting value out of our draft choice. But with the 7th overall pick, the highest we’ve picked in *18 years*, I wanted to see the Braves select someone exciting. Someone with upside through the roof. Someone who has the chance to be the next Sandy Koufax.
The real reason the Braves went with Minor is because of his signability. The Braves are close to their payroll limit and it’s no secret that they want to save money in the draft. Mike Minor will most probably sign for the slot recommendation, so the Braves won’t be breaking the bank with their first pick. It makes sense to want to actually sign the player you select. The scouts have put a lot of work into this draft and all of the Braves’ allotted resources would essentially be wasted if they were unable to sign their pick. But I still think that the number 7 pick was too good of an opportunity to waste on a guy who projects to be a number 4 starter. I would’ve drafted Matzek and hoped his demands went down. And if they do, the Braves have a super-high upside pitcher who is only 18 years old. If he doesn’t lower the demands? Well, the Braves would have the number 8 pick in next year’s draft. And next year’s draft class will likely be stronger than this year’s. Especially in the position players department.
Roy Clark is a great scouting director, but Minor isn’t the guy he wanted to take. Minor was the guy that he wanted to take among the players that management and ownership approved of drafting. The distinction is key. Clark simply plays the hand he’s dealt. Ownership put him in this tough position by dealing him this hand.
But the Braves do know how to develop pitchers. They had a left-handed pitchability pitcher who didn’t throw his fastball 90 MPH and whose change-up was his best pitch on the mound for about 17 years and that seemed to work out alright (despite recent circumstances). His name was Tom Glavine and he’s a 300 game winner. I’m not saying Mike Minor will ever be as good as Tom Glavine. It is EXTREMELY unlikely he’ll ever be close to as good as Tom Glavine or have half the career Tom Glavine did. But the Braves don’t not know what they’re doing. And they could’ve just picked the next Tom Glavine.
Only time will tell, but I have a feeling that in hindsight we will regret this draft pick further on up the road.
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