A Rather Defensive Daily Post
September 22, 2009 at 1:15 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Defense
Thought of the Day
The Braves are 23rd in Defensive Efficiency and 24th in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That sucks. Think about how awesome our pitchers would look if the Braves had an above-average defense. Getting better in that department, in my opinion, is the number 1 priority for the off-season. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got defensively:
Catcher – Brian McCann, David Ross. McCann has made strides as a defender and instead of being one of the game’s worse he was merely average until the glasses thing. He’s been bad since, but I think that’s just an adjustment thing. If he plays close to average defense I can live with it. Ross, on the other hand, is an excellent defensive catcher. Some people suggest that moving McCann to LF or 1B and playing Ross every day nets the team more wins. That’s ludicrous. If the Braves lost their sanity and did that what you have is a merely average offensive 1B (and god knows how awful Mac would be defensively at 1B) and a back-up catcher starting (and thus showing you why he’s a back-up). I don’t see Catcher as a major defensive hole, though. It would be a position you start to think about improving the defense at if you don’t have a franchise cornerstone already playing there. As it stands, we can probably expect average defense from C.
First Base is uncertain. Adam LaRoche, despite all the reach arounds he’s gotten from the organization, is a below-average defensive 1B no matter how you slice it. His career UZR/150 is -4.4 and he’s only had 1 above-average year, 2007. +/- tells the same story, he’s averaged -3.67 runs per season. Although not the worst, he’d probably be really bad if teams didn’t constantly try to stick DH’s at 1B. But we don’t know who is going to be playing there. Prado seems like one of the only internal options and he’s not a huge defensive upgrade–though a decisive upgrade–over LaRoche. Barbaro Canizares is also an option. He hasn’t played enough MLB to have meaningful data on, but all scouting reports suggest every ground ball becomes anywhere from an adventure to a nightmare. If you’re trying to improve your defense, 1B is a bad place to start, anyway.
There are four internal options for second base. The frontrunner is Martin Prado. He’s awful there. In approximately a full season at 2B, he’s posted -10 runs in +/-. UZR/150 has him at -13.8 runs. Bad. UZR has never liked Kelly Johnson until this season. His career UZR/150 is -6.5, but this season it’s 1.8. +/- has always had Kelly Johnson right at average, posting 0, -1, and 0 in the past 3 seasons (2009 included). Johnson has much better lateral range than Prado, though he sometimes makes foolish mistakes. He’s especially prone to making these mistakes at inopportune times, largely influencing the public’s opinion of him. Omar Infante is about average at 2B, according to UZR/150. I think if you put him into an everyday role, he becomes average. Note, in no way am I suggesting that Omar Infante should start at 2B for the Braves, just that I think he has potential to be an above-average defensive 2B. The 4th is Brooks Conrad. See Barbaro Canizares (1B) for his defensive explanation. Iron glove.
Yunel Escobar is going to be the SS for the Braves in 2010 with Omar Infante (he’s been average there) backing up. +/- has glowing reviews of Escobar at SS. He rated +15 in 2008 (2nd in the league behind Rollins. He suffered the shoulder injury, which cost him playing time and he was limited while he was out there. He was leading Rollins before the injury and likely would’ve finished the year as the best defensive SS in the game had he not sustained the injury. That’s neither here nor there, though). He’s rated +9 this season, 6th in the majors. UZR doesn’t like him as much. He was merely 1.9 in 2008 and has been below average, -2.7, this season. I prefer +/- to UZR anyway, but I especially do when it helps my case.
Chipper Jones at 3B. Well, I already wrote about that:
What concerns me more is Chipper’s decline in defensive value. Let’s take a look at some of the advanced stats from 2004-present, starting with +/-:
Year +/- 2004 +6 2005 -2 2006 -15 2007 +2 2008 +8 2009 -13 And UZR/150:
Year UZR/150 2004 +1.2 2005 +0.9 2006 -14.8 2007 -2.7 2008 +7.5 2009 -13.0 They both pretty much tell the same story. About average in 2004, 2005, and 2007; above-average in 2008, and very bad in 2006 and 2009. The 6-year average for +/- is -2.33 runs and the 6-year average for UZR/150 is -3.48. The three-year UZR/150 average is -2.73 and the 3-year average for +/- is -1.00. So, what is Chipper’s true defensive value? He’s had bad seasons before and rebounded both offensively (2004) and defensively (2006). The 3 and 6 year samples and trends sort of lead me to believe that this year is an anomaly and I shouldn’t be concerned. On the other hand, Chipper is 37 years old and having a miserable year with the glove, so I don’t know what to think. Watching him in the field, he’s clearly not focused or has lost something, but I’m not a scout so don’t take what I have to say about watching him as anything of value.
I don’t know. Does Chipper rebound in 2010 defensively? I’m fairly confident he will offensively, but I just don’t know what to expect from him with the glove in 2010. I have, in the past, suggested that Chipper move to 1B in 2010. After reviewing the defensive stats, I am going to retract that suggestion and just say, if he’s as bad in 2010 as he has been in 2009 at 3B, he should move to 1B. But if he’s more in line with his 3 and 6 year averages, he belongs at 3B.
Martin Prado, Chipper’s back-up, has been excellent at 3B, posting above-average numbers in both +/- and UZR. Rather significantly, actually.
Left Field is perhaps the most uncertain position. It either belongs to Nate McLouth, a platoon of Matt Diaz and Ryan Church, or an outsider. Nate McLouth, despite being a below-average center fielder, would probably be an above-average left-fielder. Defensively, of course, as his bat plays much better in center. Matt Diaz sucks defensively, but with teams constantly trying to stick a DH in LF, he rates as about average there. His defensive limitations are more noticeable in right (that’s also because his skill set plays better in left than right, given his lack of an arm, but largely because of the lack of quality defensive LF’ers). Ryan Chuch is an above-average defender, even in Center. Using him in left is perhaps a mis-allocation of resources, but you know he’s going to be plus there.
There are two candidates for Center Field. Nate McLouth has played below-average defense there his entire career despite winning a gold glove (in a year that he was arguably the worst defensive outfielder in the game, not just CF’er). Jordan Schafer is going to be a plus, if not plus plus, defender in CF for years to come, but I don’t know when he’ll get here. Here’s what Baseball Prospectus wrote about Schafer this past off-season (subscription required):
He’s a 60 runner and an even better center fielder because of his outstanding instincts, with one scout adding, “I don’t think I ever saw him break wrong on a ball.” His arm is another weapon due to both its strength and accuracy.
Schafer is the long-term solution in CF, but until he proves he’s both healthy and ready, the Braves will likely have to settle for McLouth in CF. Playing Church over McLouth in center probably isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Right Field could either be occupied by Jason Heyward or the same Diaz/Church platoon I suggested for left. Heyward is an above-average Right Fielder with a plus arm. Church is the same. Diaz stinks in right.
The best defensive alignment of the pieces we have is probably, starting with outfield, going left to right, and ending with Catcher: McLouth, Schafer, Heyward, Prado, Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Chipper, Ross.
Chipper said he’s not changing positions, so I guess that’s out of the question. And Ross isn’t overtaking McCann, so we’d probably look something like this going into the season, right now: McLouth, Schafer, Heyward, Chipper, Escobar, KJ, Prado, McCann. Of course we don’t know if Schafer is going to be ready, so we can probably look forward to: Church/Diaz, Schafer McLouth, Heyward, Chipper, Escobar, KJ, Prado, McCann. And I assume the Braves plan to add a real 1B and keep KJ on the bench (or off the roster).
Basically, I think if the Braves are going to get better on defense in 2010 they have to do it themselves. There isn’t room to bring in an impact defender. Yunel ditching the mental mistakes, Chipper sharpening the ole defense knife, etc. That’s what has to happen, because this team isn’t going to be able to make a move that makes them a lot better defensively.
Perhaps that’s all the Braves need. That’s basically what we’re left to hope for. That a) everyone getting a little better and a little lucky is enough and b) they actually will get a little better. If anyone takes a step back defensively next year, this team’s defense is going to reek. But like I said, that’s what we’re dealing with. The cards are pretty much on the table.
Rumors of the Braves’ Death are Much Exaggerated
September 17, 2009 at 3:39 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Daily Post, Defense, Pitching, Player Analysis, Transactions
Man, look at the life this team is showing. Count it, though, that’s two epic defensive fails resulting in blown K-Rod saves and losses for the Mets. One against the Yankees when a Kelly Johnson dropped pop-up deja-vu allowed Teixeira to score from 2nd. And of course, the one last night. I didn’t watch it, but I read Mac Thomason’s recap over at Braves Journal. He does a good job, as always, but this opening paragraph is particularly funny, so I’ll quote it here:
If I were a Mets blogger — well, I’d kill myself, but assuming that somehow I had friends and family and they managed to restrain me — I’d be pretty upset right about now, 22 games out or not. The Mets had sixteen hits but only scored five runs, leaving fourteen men on base, and their closer blew the save in the ninth before losing the game when a ball hit Daniel Murphy, caromed straight up in the air, and Murphy dropped it, allowing the winning run to score from second on a ball that went sixty feet. That’s the sort of thing you’d expect from the sort of organization that would trade for Jeff Francoeur.
Yep. Pretty much. We all know that Daniel Murphy is a terrible defensive player, so it’s not like we completely didn’t see anything like this happen, but the timing is awful. For the Mets at least. Not to mention K-Rod seems gassed and if I were Minaya I’d shut him down. Oh, and this picture is pretty funny. This is a Braves blog, though. I’ve got a lot to cover today, so I’m doing it rapid fire.
Standings
East:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Philadelphia | 84 | 60 | – | +105 |
| Florida | 78 | 68 | 7.0 | +13 |
| Atlanta | 77 | 68 | 7.5 | +75 |
| NY Mutts | 63 | 83 | 22.0 | -84 |
| Washington | 50 | 95 | 34.5 | -146 |
Wild Card:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 83 | 64 | – | +78 |
| San Francisco | 79 | 67 | 3.5 | +44 |
| Florida | 78 | 68 | 4.5 | +13 |
| Atlanta | 77 | 68 | 5.0 | +75 |
| Chicago (N) | 75 | 69 | 6.5 | +32 |
Yep. There goes. The Braves gained ground on San Francisco last night as they lost to Colorado. Colorado’s remaining schedule is tougher than San Francisco, so maybe that’s a good thing. Of course, if Colorado had lost, I’d have said it’s good for the leading team to lose.
Rumors of Bobby Cox’s Impact are Much Exaggerated
So Bobby Cox is thinking about retiring after 2009. My question is, who gives a fuck? If you think the answers to the Braves’ problems come in the form of a new manager, you’re delusional. Manager’s only have so much impact with their on-field decisions. Much less than most people think. Bobby Cox, despite his questionable bullpen usage and loyalties to players who suck, is no different. I guarantee you I can find you 5 worse managerial gaffes than Bobby’s this year. Or even 5 outside of Cincinnati. You can sit here and list all of Bobby’s sub-optimal decisions and I’ll tell you any team has those exact same problems. The real answer to the Braves’ problems was a Matt Holliday or a Manny Ramirez. Not a Fredi Gonzalez or a Ned Yost. Sure, blaming Bobby is easy, but he can’t make people hit home runs.
Vazquez Wants To Stay
Javier Vazquez told Carroll Rogers of the AJC that he wants to stay in Atlanta. The quote:
“Hopefully I’ll be here,” said Vazquez, recently named National League player of the week. “I really want to be here. Hopefully they want me here, too.”
The article also featured a hilarious story about Kenshin Kawakami. MLB Trade Rumors covered the article, and this is what Tim Dierkes had to say about the situation:
Vazquez has been a bona fide ace in his return to the NL, with a 3.01 ERA, 216 strikeouts, and 40 walks in 197.3 innings. He’s signed affordably for next year at $11.5MM. I’ve said it before: signing Hudson and having six starters under control on paper does not equal a surplus. Derek Lowe is 36 and his numbers took an alarming dip this year. And whether Hudson, Kawakami, and Tommy Hanson can each throw 200 innings next year is an open question. The Braves need a first baseman, an outfield bat, and a closer, but trading Vazquez for a hitter might just create a new hole.
I don’t really disagree. I think if the Braves can lock up Vazquez they have to do it. He’s been too good and if he’s willing to take a discount, you jump on that like white on rice. The problem may be the no-trade clause to Western division teams he seeks. I’m not sure the Braves need all three things Tim suggested, but I agree that keeping all 6 SP is optimal.
So far, we’ve seen rumors suggesting the Braves may extend both Vazquez and Hudson. I think doing so is the correct move on both fronts.
Derek Lowe’s Blister
You know, that blister may’ve been a blessing in disguise. Lowe wasn’t pitching well, couldn’t locate anything and his sinker was moving on a horizontal plane more than a vertical one. The key to Lowe’s season last year was his curveball/slider*. That pitch was 29 runs above average last year. This year? It’s 7.1 runs below average. I don’t know what’s going on, but that was the pitch when he dominated the Phillies on opening day. He needs to get that back.
*Fangraphs and most announcers call it a slider and it charts as a slider, but Derek Lowe says it’s a curveball. One time in Spring Training McCann caused a balk because he kept throwing down a slider sign and Derek Lowe said “I don’t throw a slider”. It looks and behaves like a slider, perhaps it’s thrown like a curveball. It has distinct curveball properties. It doesn’t move as much as a traditional curveball, though. It moves like a Brad Lidge slider, almost.
A Thought
What if the Braves, instead of acquiring a 1B, move Chipper to 1st and sign Jack Wilson. Jack Wilson sucks offensively, but he’s one of the best defensive SS in the game, and will probably be a 2-win player this year just because of defense alone. Move Yunel to 3rd and have the most amazing defensive left side of the infield in baseball. Of course, this doesn’t fix the Braves’ biggest systematic weakness, and perhaps contributes to it. But, if you can sign Wilson for cheap (~$3-5 million or so), you’ve got value there. And then, maybe you can go out and get a Holliday or a Bay. And that fixes the biggest systematic weakness. Something like:
1. McLouth
2. KJ/Prado
3. Chipper
4. Holliday
5. McCann
6. Yunel
7. Church/Diaz/Heyward/Schafer
8. Wilson
It could work. Not my favorite idea, but something to consider. It should be noted that the Mariners hold a $8.4 million dollar option for Wilson’s 2010 season with a $0.6 million dollar buyout. Smart money’s on the buyout.
The Braves need to get better defensively with the pitching staff they’ve got. They’re 23rd in baseball in defensive efficiency. Getting Garret Anderson out of there in favor of a better defensive LF (preferably Holliday), moving Chipper to 1B, moving Yunel to 3rd, and adding an extremely gifted defensive SS would certainly improve the defense. Crazy idea, I know. I don’t think it’s that good of an idea, but it’s not that bad either.
Man, getting that Lowe contract off the books would really help. Speaking of which, Around the Majors took a look at the Lowe contract on August 19th. It’s worth a read and mostly right. The thing is, when your highest paid starting pitcher is arguably your worst, it’s annoying.
That’s all I got.
SWEEEEEEPPPPPPPPP
Go Braves!
UPDATE:
NFL Picks
New England 31 at NY Jets 30
New Orleans 27 at Philadelphia 41
St. Louis 10 at Washington 24
Cincinnati 13 at Green Bay 29
Minnesota 44 at Detroit 11
Houston 7 at Tennessee 23
Oakland 20 at Kansas City 21
Carolina 20 at Atlanta 24
Arizona 28 at Jacksonville 38
Tampa Bay 10 at Buffalo 38
Seattle 24 at San Francisco 17
Baltimore 12 at San Diego 17
Pittsburgh 11 at Chicago 10
Cleveland 10 at Denver 21
NY Giants 44 at Dallas 28
Indianopolis 24 at Miami 13
Daily Post
September 16, 2009 at 3:11 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Big Red, Daily Post, Defense, Pitching, Player Analysis
Standings
I suppose it would be constructive to post both the Wild Card and NL East standings because I don’t know what the hell the Braves are shooting for at this point. Starting in the East, much like the Sun.
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Philadelphia | 83 | 60 | – | +100 |
| Florida | 77 | 68 | 7.0 | +10 |
| Atlanta | 76 | 68 | 7.5 | +74 |
| NY Mutts | 63 | 82 | 21.0 | -83 |
| Washington | 50 | 94 | 33.5 | -141 |
And the Wild Card:
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 82 | 64 | – | +77 |
| San Francisco | 79 | 66 | 2.5 | +45 |
| Florida | 77 | 68 | 4.5 | +10 |
| Atlanta | 76 | 68 | 5.0 | +74 |
| Chicago (N) | 75 | 68 | 5.5 | +36 |
On second thought, maybe we’re back to the Wild Card. The Rockies have lost 4 in a row. Remember how I was saying the Rockies’ schedule is really easy in September? Well, the 1st half of their September schedule was significantly easier than the 2nd half. Here’s what they’ve got left: 1 @ SF, 3 @ ARI, 3 vs. SDG, 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. MIL, and 3 @ LAD. It’s not the easiest schedule in the world, as opposed to their 1st half schedule when they were playing the Mets, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Padres.
And the Braves are 4 back in the loss column. Is it time to jump back on the wild-card bandwagon? Well, things went south last time I did, so I’ll keep posting both.
Addendum to Yesterday’s Post
I did the bullpen thing yesterday, but Stu pointed out that I left out two candidates. Jorge Campillo, who had season ending shoulder surgery in late May/early June, is certainly a candidate to make the 2010 bullpen. I think the Braves will start him in AAA and eventually get him some innings in the long relief role. Buddy Carlyle is the second one I left off. Carlyle is out of options next year, so I imagine the Braves will cut him, but don’t rule out the possibility that he wins a job out of Spring Training. I hope he does. He’s been through a lot and I’m pulling for him–I will be wherever he goes.
Chipper’s Defense
I was going to dedicate a post to explaining why Braves fans shouldn’t be worried by Chipper’s drop in production because it’s mostly just due to bad luck, but JC Bradbury beat me to the punch. Basically, I think Chipper rebounds and has a very productive 2010. Offensively, at least. What concerns me more is Chipper’s decline in defensive value. Let’s take a look at some of the advanced stats from 2004-present, starting with +/-:
| Year | +/- |
| 2004 | +6 |
| 2005 | -2 |
| 2006 | -15 |
| 2007 | +2 |
| 2008 | +8 |
| 2009 | -13 |
And UZR/150:
| Year | UZR/150 |
| 2004 | +1.2 |
| 2005 | +0.9 |
| 2006 | -14.8 |
| 2007 | -2.7 |
| 2008 | +7.5 |
| 2009 | -13.0 |
They both pretty much tell the same story. About average in 2004, 2005, and 2007; above-average in 2008, and very bad in 2006 and 2009. The 6-year average for +/- is -2.33 runs and the 6-year average for UZR/150 is -3.48. The three-year UZR/150 average is -2.73 and the 3-year average for +/- is -1.00. So, what is Chipper’s true defensive value? He’s had bad seasons before and rebounded both offensively (2004) and defensively (2006). The 3 and 6 year samples and trends sort of lead me to believe that this year is an anomaly and I shouldn’t be concerned. On the other hand, Chipper is 37 years old and having a miserable year with the glove, so I don’t know what to think. Watching him in the field, he’s clearly not focused or has lost something, but I’m not a scout so don’t take what I have to say about watching him as anything of value.
I don’t know. Does Chipper rebound in 2010 defensively? I’m fairly confident he will offensively, but I just don’t know what to expect from him with the glove in 2010. I have, in the past, suggested that Chipper move to 1B in 2010. After reviewing the defensive stats, I am going to retract that suggestion and just say, if he’s as bad in 2010 as he has been in 2009 at 3B, he should move to 1B. But if he’s more in line with his 3 and 6 year averages, he belongs at 3B.
Prado Another 0-fer
First of all, let me be clear. I like Prado. I think he’s an excellent utility player and a crucial piece of this team given his defensive value at 3B and right-handed stroke. If I were GM and somebody called me offering a quality reliever of similar contractual status for Prado, I would say no. He’s that important to the team. I even sponsor his baseball-reference page. However, he is not an every day player. He was the only Braves player with more than 1 PA last night to go 0-fer except Tommy Hanson (who had 3 sacrifices). Prado went 0-for-5. Now, if the Braves want to play Prado at 3rd when Chipper is out, that is fine with me. Seriously, I think he should have been playing last night. However, do you have to bat him second? We’re approaching the Ron Gardenhire* school of line-ups at this point. Since July 23, Prado has a .609 OPS. That isn’t 2-hole worthy. And this wouldn’t be a daily post if I didn’t sneak my “get KJ more playing time” agenda in there, so I’ll say it again. Kelly Johnson has a .912 OPS since July 23.
*I’d link to something more specific, but basically, Gardenhire always has to have a light-hitting middle infielder bat in the 2-hole. Aaron Gleeman alludes to this throughout his site.
Tommy Hanson Rookie of the Year
I’m campaigning at this point. I don’t push for something unless a) I think the player deserves it or b) I think the player is close to deserving it and he plays for the Braves. Anyway, here goes. Tommy Hanson now leads all NL Qualified rookies in ERA, K/9, K/BB, WHIP, W%, and is tied for the lead in W. Here’s my chart:
| Player | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | W | L | W% |
| J.A. Happ | 149.67 | 125 | 46 | 52 | 104 | 2.77 | 1.18 | 6.25 | 2.00 | 10 | 4 | 0.714 |
| Randy Wells | 143.00 | 141 | 47 | 38 | 84 | 2.96 | 1.25 | 5.29 | 2.21 | 10 | 8 | 0.556 |
| Tommy Hanson | 109.67 | 89 | 32 | 39 | 93 | 2.63 | 1.17 | 7.63 | 2.38 | 10 | 3 | 0.769 |
Pitch well down the stretch and I think Hanson has a real shot at winning the award. If you’ve watched the three candidates, it’s more than clear that Hanson is far more talented than the other two. At this point, he’s got a 6-8 start disadvantage, though. But, like I said, if he pitches well down the stretch, he’s capable of overcoming the disadvantage.
That’s all I got.
Go Braves!
What’s the point?
August 31, 2009 at 1:10 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Defense
No, this post isn’t about the Braves’ season or last night’s game. Although that game was infuriating. Chipper needs a few days off. He’s hit .244/.371/.372 this month. Seriously, Chipper Jones with a sub-.400 SLG%? You know this is Chipper Jones, right? And a sub-.250 batting average? What?
As long as we’re still talking about the game, I want to suggets something. Brian McCann should’ve at least tried a bunt against the lefty in the 8th inning with runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out, and down by 1. Why not? I mean, McCann sucks against LHP this season, hitting a Francoeur-like .216/.298/.316. And the Phillies aren’t going to expect McCann to bunt, so you may get a hit and load the bases with nobody out. And the Braves have shown that even their offense can’t manage to get out of that without scoring a run. Or say the hit doesn’t work and it goes as a sacrifice. Then, you’ve got runners at 2nd and 3rd for ACHE, who has hit .304/.328/.429 against LHP. Nothing to write home about, but it’s a .143 difference in OPS. I’d rather have the bat in ACHE’s hand with runners at 2nd and 3rd than the bat in McCann’s hand with runners at 1st and 2nd. Or say the sacrifice doesn’t work. At least you didn’t line into a double play and there’s still a RISP for Garret. Who will probably fail. So Escobar will get a chance to hit with 2-out and RISP. Not that I believe for one second that hitting with RISP is a repeatable skill, but Yunel has hit .358/.386/.582 in those situations. Or say the bunt is so bad they get a double play. As long as they don’t get the lead runner, you’re in better shape than you ended up. Because McCann lined into a 4-6-5 double play. In which we ended up with a runner on 1st and 2-out. That’s some difficult shit to accomplish. For the record, this isn’t after-the-fact management. I suggested it at the time. Here and Here.
Like I said, though. This isn’t about the game or the season.
What’s the point of even keeping track of errors anymore? By my count, Errors are counted for two purposes. 1) determining a player’s fielding percentage. 2) determining whether or not runs are earned or unearned.
Let’s just get fielding percentage out of the way right now. If you think fielding percentage is even a good way to determine how good of a fielder someone is, get off my website. Fielding percentage only considers the balls you get to. If you’re slow as shit and never get to anything but rarely make errors, or the errors are charged as hits because of your incompetence, that doesn’t mean you’re a better fielder than someone who zips across the field covering 3x the amount of ground but occasionally makes an error on a ball that would drop 10 feet away from the slow guy. Fielding Percentage is a useless statistic. On every level. Defensive efficiency is the perfect way to measure how good a team is as a whole, and a plethora of metrics like UZR, +/-, etc.. are much better for individual performances. Not to say these metrics are perfect. They’re not (well, defensive efficiency probably is). But they have value. Unlike fielding percentage. Which is completely–let me emphasize–COMPLETELY worthless.
So, if fielding percentage is worthless, the only thing we gain from keeping track of errors is the ability to determine whether or not runs are earned or not. For much the same reason as fielding percentage is a bad statistic, unearned runs are. I can’t tell you the countless number of examples of times I’ve seen a run charged “unearned” when it’s completely the pitchers’ fault or runs charged “earned” when it’s in no way the pitchers’ fault.
Like, say someone hits a fly ball to right field with 2 outs, races around the basepaths, the right fielder loses it in the sun, the ball drops 20 feet in front of him, and the batter is credited with an inside the park home run. How in the motherfuck is that the pitchers’ fault?
Or say there’s 2 outs, a pitcher walks 2 batters, someone reaches on an error, and the next batter hits a grand slam. I’m pretty sure the defense had nothing to do with the walks and the home run.
I don’t think we accomplish anything by distinguishing between earned and unearned runs. Therefore, I don’t think we should keep track of it. I mean, the difference between unearned runs and earned runs is usually the subjective, legalistic interpretation by the official scorer of a stupid rule and generally has nothing to do with whether or not the pitcher actually deserves to have the runs charged to him.
Yes, there are instances where unearned runs are actually unearned. If we accept this will generally happen to everyone at an equal rate, we can ignore it. Except it won’t, so we accept the fact that it’s a function of the DEFENSE, not the pitcher, and also report the team’s defensive efficiency behind the pitcher. We’re actually making progress here.
It occurred to me that errors also effect no-hitters. If you just accept the fact that pitchers with bad defenses behind them will throw fewer no-hitters (and you should, because it’s true), that pretty much takes care of that.
So what’s the point? Why do we still keep track of errors?
The Tale of Two Pitchers
August 26, 2009 at 2:17 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Defense, Pitching, Statistical Analysis, Transactions
In the year 1969, two pitchers played for two different teams. Pitcher A went 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA and pitched 211 innings. His club made the post-season. Pitcher B went 12-16 with a 4.67 ERA and pitched 208 and 1/3 innings. His club also made the post-season.
The next year, 1970, neither pitcher pitched for their previous club and they both pitched for the same (new) team. Pitcher A, the one with the winning record and the sub-3.5 ERA, posted a 4.48 ERA with their new club. Pitcher B, the one who had a losing record and an ERA over 4.5, posted a 3.14 ERA.
Sample size? No.
There are a number of things that contributed to the seemingly unexplainable improvement of pitcher B and the regression of pitcher A. First of all, pitcher B was rather unlucky. The difference between his 3.81 FIP and his 4.67 ERA, -0.86, ranked 3rd in the league. While pitcher A was right at his level. It makes sense. Pitcher B struck out 200 and walked only 61. In most cases, you’re going to post an ERA better than 4.67 with those peripherals. His home run rate was slightly elevated due to a bad pitchers’ park and the defense behind him was worse than bad. In 1969.
Pitcher A had the luxury of playing in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark with one of the most talented defenses in the league behind him. He didn’t have any of the bad luck pitcher B had. As a result, his 3.23 FIP was right at his 3.24 ERA. Despite his solid yet uninspiring 147-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Neither pitcher faced a DH in 1970. Pitcher B did in 1969, pitcher A did not.
Based on those factors, you’d expect pitcher B to improve moving to a neutral park with a neutral defense. You’d also expect pitcher A to regress. And that’s what happened in 1970.
This would be a true story if I changed 1969 to 2008, 1970 to 2009, pitcher A to Derek Lowe, and pitcher B to Javier Vazquez. It’s obviously not this simple, but you get the idea. It wasn’t that hard to see this coming, folks.
What About This?
August 21, 2009 at 12:43 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Chipper Jones, Defense, Injuries, Statistical Analysis
I like defense. Most people don’t think about it when constructing a team, but it’s a lot easier to win with a good defense. It makes your pitchers better, energizes your team, etc. This year, the Braves’ worst positions defensively have been 2B, LF, and CF–costing the team a combined 26 runs. Third base has cost the team 5 runs. No other position is in the red.
Eventually, the Braves’ outfield will consist of–left to right–McLouth, Schafer, and Heyward. I don’t see any way this alignment is less than average. I strongly believe McLouth will be an above-average defender at a corner, Schafer will be plus, and Heyward will be plus.
Provided LaRoche leaves via free agency, the obvious solution to the hole is to move Prado to 1B and insert one of Kelly Johnson or Infante in at 2B. I have a different idea.
Chipper Jones has been awful at 3B this year, costing the team fourteen runs with his glove. 3B doesn’t rank as the team’s worst position because Prado has been very good there in a back-up role, saving the team 6 runs in only 184 defensive innings.
If you extrapolate Prado’s defensive prowess over a full season at 3B (which you can’t do, so I don’t for my actual calculations), he saves 32 runs at 3B, good for more than 3 wins. Chipper’s is good for -16 runs.
For how good Prado’s been at 3B, he’s been equally bad–for his entire career–at 2B. No matter what method you use, he’s been worth about -10 runs, or -1 win, at 2B over a full season. It’s pretty easy to see why. Prado moves better when he’s running forward (i.e. charging a bunt, something that you don’t do at 2B), but his lateral range is suspect. Plus his best asset is his throwing arm (which is a beauty). The arm is on display at 3B but wasted at 2B.
You probably see where I’m going at this point. The idea is simple. Play Kelly Johnson at 2B (I truly believe he is an above-average MLB 2B–with both the bat and glove–that fell on some bad luck this season), a position where he’s about average, play Prado at 3B, and move Chipper to 1B.
The question then becomes, how bad at 1B would Chipper have to be to make this defensive alignment a misallocation of resources?
Well, I’ve pegged Prado, for the purposes of conservative calculations, at +19 runs at 3B. I’ve got Kelly Johnson at +2 at 2B. I’ve got Prado at -10 at 2B and Chipper at -16 at 3B. Between the two positions, you’re looking at a 47 run difference, assuming whatever 1B we were going to use plays average defense.
So, you’re looking at a 47 run, or roughly 5 win, improvement just by shifting the infielders a bit. And Chipper would have to be 47 runs below average to make this alignment disadvantageous.
Mike Jacobs was the worst fielding 1B last year and he cost his team 20 runs. I think I may be on to something here. Unless Chipper is 27 runs worse than the worst, the alignment is, overall, helpful.
Then you get into injuries. Chipper’s most valuable asset is obviously his bat and you want to keep that bat in there at all costs. People suggesting moving Chipper to 1B to prevent injuries is silly for 2 reasons. 1) he hardly ever gets hurt in the field (usually swinging and missing). 2) 1B has way more chances than 3B, so I think the injury risk is greater at 1B. As I said, though, he hardly ever gets hurt in the field. Let’s assume, for a second, that the change in position will require Chipper to miss more time. Then, how much time will he have to miss to make the change in position counter-productive?
Over his career, Chipper has been worth approximately 0.26 runs above average (using simple wOBA extractions) with his bat every game he plays. Assuming he’s bottom-of-the-barrel bad at 1B, -20 runs, how many games would he have to miss to justify not making the change in defensive alignments?
The answer? 104.
It’s not that crazy. Prado is a very good defender at 3B, he’s a bad defender at 2B. The Braves have an average defender at 2B on their roster. And they don’t have a 1B. But they have a 3B who is 37 years old and costing the team runs left and right with his glove at 3B. It’s almost stupid not to move Chipper to 1B. Prado-Yunel-KJ-Chipper 3rd to 1st. I could live with that.
Of course this all hinges on Kelly Johnson hitting next year, which I think he will.
The solution at 1B may be internal for this club. I think it is. Keeping the pitching staff intact and using Chipper at 1st may be the key to getting back to the post-season.
Rizzo was the Correct Choice
August 20, 2009 at 1:55 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Defense, Front Office, Washington Nationals
If your interim GM did the following, you’d be pretty pleased with him and want him to assume your team’s permanent GM position. Here goes:
- Locked up your team star for 5 years at below-market value. One that hits for power, plays excellent defense, gets on base, and plays a premium position–3B.
- Drafted the best available player in the draft and signed him for less money than most people thought he’d get.
- Focused on youth in the rotation, developing very interesting, young pitchers during a meaningless season. If you’re going to lose, do it with the kids. Do it with someone who will actually learn something. Someone whose interesting. Someone who you have a future with. I do this rant all the time, but it gets ignored regularly by certain GMs. Go figure.
- Improved the team’s defense and figures to keep doing so. First of all, the Nyjer Morgan acquisition really shored up the CF defense. Your outfield is never dysfunctional if you have an elite center fielder. Secondly, trading away Nick Johnson (for a very interesting prospect) and moving Dunn to 1B and moving Willingham to LF for good is a huge upgrade defensively. Going with Dukes, Morgan, and Willingham right-to-left as opposed to Willingham, Dukes/Milledge, and Dunn is worth nearly 9 wins a season in the outfield.
- Got all of the questionable personalities. I’m looking at you, Lastings Milledge. Julian Tavarez.
- Has confidence in the team. And I quote:
“We are in the building process,” Rizzo said. “We are not rebuilding. This is a team that is, in my opinion, not far away from being a good, solid baseball team. …
“I understand we’ve got holes to fill, we’ve got a lot of work ahead of us this season, this offseason and through spring training. But I feel like we’re prepared for it, we’re going to get it right, and I do not believe that this needs total rebuilding.”
Rizzo is right. They’ve got this team going in absolutely the correct direction. This team was so bad, so hopeless for most of this decade. They’re finally committed to doing it right. Building from within.
I’ve pointed this out before, but the Nationals have used 10 starting pitchers this season. Look at their ages:
Shairon Martis, 22.
Jordan Zimmermann, 23.
Ross Detwiler, 23.
Collin Balester, 23.
John Lannan, 24.
Scott Olsen, 25.
Craig Stammen, 25.
Garrett Mock, 26.
J. D. Martin, 26.
Daniel Cabrera, 28.
Nine of them haven’t reached their peak years and the 10th, Daniel Cabrera, who arguably had reached his peak years and was brought in as a no-risk exercise, someone they took a flyer on, got released when Rizzo, delivering the quote of the year in the process, realized Cabrera wasn’t going to pan out. The quote:
I was tired of watching him.
Just priceless. So even if he’s a bust you’ll be entertained. And Jim Bowden was your last GM, not like the expectations are high, right?
Back to seriousness.
I pointed out earlier that his draft was a huge success. Especially the 1st round. Just look at how the 2009 Nationals draft went and how the 2008 Nationals draft went. The 2008 one was a complete disgrace. The 2009 one may have been the best of the year.
I think, without a doubt, Mike Rizzo is the best choice for the job. He has been a god-send for that franchise. It’s like John Schuerholz was for the Braves. Actually, some of his moves strongly resemble what Schuerholz did in 1991. Shoring up the defense, going with a young, talented pitching staff, etc.
They still have a ways to go. They need a real defensive SS, a 2B, and a catcher (Ryan Doumit???). They also need to shore up the bullpen, a lot of which can be accomplished through the young rotation depth they’ve built up and developed. They’ll look to add a closer this off-season, I imagine. They’ll also look to bring in a veteran sort of player-coach for the rotation. Mentoring that talented young staff they’ve got (Randy Johnson???). But apart from that, they’ve got the makings of a winning team. I really believe they do. Five smaller acquisitions (or maybe they have answers stashed away in the minors, I don’t know, I don’t know their system at all) and I think they’re a playoff team. When’s the last time that the Nationals, or the Expos for that matter, were 5 small acquisitions away from being a playoff team? It’s phenomenal how close this team, who was so bad for so long, is to being very good.
Rizzo acknowledges this, as the quote read earlier. But he’s confident. As he should be.
Rizzo’s done an unbelievable job as interim GM and he is, without a doubt, the correct choice to be Washington’s permenant GM.
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