April 10, 2012 at 5:45 pm by Ben Duronio under Links
I don’t normally do this, but this article was so good that I feel I have to. Jason Roberts over at FanGraphs covered a few decisions made by Fredi over the first four games of the year. We honestly probably should have already written this exact article, but we’ve been through this a hundred times with Fredi and if we wrote an article after every decision we disagreed with, well we’d write a lot of articles.
Here’s a small excerpt of Jason’s article:
Things did not get better from there. Trailing by one-run after 5 innings, Gonzalez turned the game over to Livan Hernandez who promptly gave up 2 runs in the bottom of the 6th. Hernandez is a useful guy to have around as a long-reliever or spot-starter, but he should not be used in medium or high leverage situations. Neither Jonny Venters nor Craig Kimbrel pitched on Sunday and were likely available. Kris Medlen and Eric O’Flaherty were also likely available given that they each pitched only one inning on Sunday, and did not pitch Friday or Saturday. When Hernandez entered the game last night the Braves has a .259 win expectancy that had plummeted to .115 by the end of Hernandez’s inning of work. Down by 1 run to what is expected to be the worst team in MLB is not the time to punt the game.
November 20, 2009 at 12:23 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Links
Today’s post is dedicated to Jack Zduriencik, who just last year pulled perhaps the greatest magic trick a GM has pulled since 1991. Zduriencik took a team that won 61 games the previous year, a team that was 13th in the AL in scoring runs and 11th in the AL in allowing runs, and a team that the sabermetric community hated because they were losing for all the wrong (and easily avoidable) reasons (dependence on aging, overpaid players; mis-allocation of resources; crappy OBP’s; bad defense; and a bunch of finesse pitchers) and turned them into an 85-win team. Furthermore, they went from 11th in the AL in runs allowed to 1st in the AL, and they did it with basically the same group of pitchers. Furthermore they did it spending zero money because defense is basically free on the open market. He turned a pair of aging, overpaid relievers and a fringy, tweener OF into 1) arguably the best defensive player in the game and valuable enough to be in the conversation for the MVP* under team control for many years, 2) many service years of an interesting back-end rotation lefty, 3) their future 1B, 4) an additional pair of legit prospects, 5) Endy Chavez (who cares at this point they’ve cleaned so much house. Keep in mind, they’ve sacrificed a pair of overpaid relievers and a fringy OF. Basically, they’ve sacrificed nothing of value to them, and they’ve already netted this much), and 6) Aaron Heliman, whom they turn into one of the best defensive 2B’s in the game (Ronny Cedeno, who also can’t hit, but he’s still valuable for his defensive contributions) and a younger, higher upside lefty with fewer service years.
*Franklin Gutierrez was actually 6th in the AL in WAR. He hit .283/.339/.425, which I suppose is moderately good for a CF’er, but he was an astonishing (and league-leading) 29.1 runs above average as a defender at a premium position. Both of those things Zduriencik basically got for free. Anyway, here’s the AL’s top-10 in WAR:
1. Zorilla™ – 8.6
2. Mauer™ – 8.4
3. The Captain™ (The Yankees one, I think the Red Sox have a captain too, but he sucks) – 7.4
4. Longoria™ – 7.2
5. CHONE™ Figgins – 6.1
6. Franklin Gutierrez – 5.9
7. Rick Porcello’s Bitch – 5.6
8. Ice Cream Paint Job – 5.5
9. Drunk@theWhiteSoxGame – 5.4
10. Mark Teishithead – 5.1
- Today marks the first day of Free Agency. Of course, you won’t see any Type-A Free Agents signed until wheneverthefuck the deadline to offer a player arbitration is, so we’re still mostly in the speculative phase of the off-season. Ken Rosenthal has some buzz. First, and nothing we didn’t know, the Braves are trying to trade Derek Lowe. They’re having a hard time doing so, thus far, because of the fact that he is owed $45 million over the next three years. These are things that are simply obvious to me. I could have written them in this blog and they’d be taken seriously by nobody (and rightfully so), why do we consider it newsworthy when Ken Rosenthal reports it? On the other hand, Ken Rosenthal does say that the Braves and Brewers discussed a Corey Hart for Derek Lowe, but the Brewers nixed it due to financial concerns. But wait! Here comes Bowman to re-assure us that Ken Rosenthal is full of shit. I’ve had enough of Rosenthal.
- Right-handed power news: Bob Nightengale of some shitty news site (USA Today, I think it’s called) says The Yankees have made Nick Swisher available. If this isn’t a complete horse-shit rumor (I think it is), I really hope Frank Wren makes the call. By the way, his twitter page is funny as shit. It’s just a series of bullshit rumors, all preceded by #mlb. Must be MLB Trade Rumors’ favorite twitter feed of them all. Rosenthal says the Braves are interested in Josh Willingham. I like Willingham, I always have, I thought the Braves should have traded for him even before he went to Washington, then again after he was in Washington, and even still now. Granted: it’s a Ken Rosenthal story, so I don’t really put any stock into it.
- The Braves prepared for this year’s rule 5 draft by adding 5 pitchers to their 40-man roster. Today was the deadline to do so. These players would’ve been eligible to be drafted in the rule 5 draft had they not been added this morning. I generally trust the organization with these type of things and I happen to agree that all 5 (Jonny Venters, Kyle Cofield, Lee Hyde, Jeff Lyman, Jose Ortegano) are worthy of keeping. All 5 have a shot at competing for a bullpen role at some point in 2010. Not a lot of people outside the organization have taken notice, but there’s a fairly good crop of relievers coming out of the Braves system within 2 years. It’s going to be valuable in that a) the Braves will have the luxury of building a cheap, effective bullpen, which is what every mid-market team strives for, and b) there will be some nice trade pieces.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith does his best to rip my heart out.
- Michael Fierman is writing again.
- The Hawks are back. If you would’ve told me 2 years ago that the Hawks would be the most successful Atlanta franchise this year I’d have said you were crazy. They’ve got a pretty good chance to be. And in case you haven’t watched, they’ve got a pretty damn good team, too. Mark Bradley chimes in, too. Mark Bradley is a must-read for Hawks season.
- I’ve been meaning to get into the NBA saber-ish stuff, but I haven’t really had the time with so many baseball things to study. But this is a summary of the saber-ish things happening in college basketball right now. Perhaps not right now, but in the not very distant past, I would assume.
- JC Bradbury reminds us that wins suck.
- Prospect Project has a quote from Freddie Freeman on his elbow injury: “I got an injury right now that every time I swing, I seem to hyperextend my elbow, and I can’t swing because if I do it the pain is just so intense, I can’t do it.”
The AFL regular season came to a close yesterday. Sad, I know. The Sags finished 3rd (of 3 teams) in their division, so their players are done. That concludes the fall-league season for Freddie Freeman (who hadn’t played in a week), Brandon Hicks, Mike Minor, Craig Kimbrel, Jeff Lyman, and Lee Hyde. Heyward’s had been ended earlier after some injury. Here are the 6 remaining participants final statistics:
Lee Hyde – 12.0 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 4 R (4 ER), 13 K
Craig Kimbrel – 10.1 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 16 BB, 13 R (12 ER), 18 K
Jeff Lyman – 14.0 IP, 18 H (4 HR), 6 BB, 11 R (11 ER), 11 K
Mike Minor – 16.2 IP, 23 H (3 HR), 6 BB, 10 R (9 ER), 12 K
Freddie Freeman – 12-45 (.267), 3 2B, 1 HR (.400 SLG%), 4 BB (.353 OBP), 15 K
Brandon Hicks – 27-87 (.310), 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR (.425 SLG%), 14 BB (.423 OBP), 17 K
Freeman’s campaign was largely hampered by injury. Lee Hyde’s campaign was a success, I’d say. The Braves saw something they liked in Lyman, seeing as they added him to the 40-man roster today, but the numbers don’t look too good. Craig Kimbrel reverted to his 2009 Myrtle Beach form. Mike Minor’s numbers were pedestrian, though there were some positive scouting reports. Brandon Hicks had a very successful campaign. He got ~100 PA’s, made consistent contact, lowered that K rate, increased his BB rate, and showed some pop.
Let’s not take these numbers too seriously, though. In the grand scheme of things we’re talking about a league that is, by design, different in several facets from regular season minor and major league baseball, and an extremely small sample size thereof. What the scouts think, as with most amateur and minor-league players, is a much better indicator of future value than their numbers. Remember this, numbers only tell us what a player has done. Players playing in the lower minor-leagues or college or high school or whatever, they’ve got to get a lot better than they currently are to be able to make it as a regular in MLB. Numbers can’t tell us who will get better, only what they’ve done.
October 30, 2009 at 1:43 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Links, Prospects
Your Friday links.
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball has his preliminary list of Atlanta Braves top-20 prospects. Comparing the list to mine, we’ve got 15 of the same in the top 20. He includes Cody Gearrin, Robinson Lopez, Luis Valdez, Scott Diamond, and Mycal Jones. I have Gearrin ranked 33, Jones ranked 21, Diamond ranked 35, and Lopez and Valdez unranked. I included Matt Young (15), Cody Johnson (16), Benino Pruneda (17), Tyler Stovall (19), and Cole Rohrbough (10).
- Atlanta Braves prospect and AFL Representative, Jeff Lyman, has a new blog post up. He’ll answer your questions, too!
- Mark Sanchez eats a hot dog on the sideline during a TV time out in Sunday’s game against the Raiders. They were up like 1,583,412 to 0, anyway. Speaking of NFL, I gave up on doing NFL picks. I wasn’t very good, anyway.
- It must’ve been my birthday this past weekend, because Steve Phillips was fired by ESPN. He also entered into a rehab facility to combat his sex addiction. There are two possible explanations. 1) He really is a sex fiend and actually needs treatment or 2) he’s full of shit and entering rehab to save face. I link, you decide. His mistress was also fired.
- It looks like my Tim Hudson prediction will, indeed, be correct. The funny thing about all of this is that Rosenthal originally broke the story. Here’s what Rosenthal writes two weeks ago:
Barring a last-minute, knockout offer from the Braves, right-hander Tim Hudson plans to become a free agent, according to major-league sources.
Can we all agree to never listen to anything Rosenthal says ever again?
- Jason Heyward’s AFL campaign has come to an end after a diagnosis of back inflammation per team doctors. Probably a minor set back in the grand scheme of things. He probably wasn’t going to get serious consideration for an opening-day role, anyway.
- This site is just hilarious.
- The Braves have plucked Mariners’ minor league pitching coordinator, Dave Wallace from them to fill the same role in Atlanta. I know nothing about the position, but Wallace seems like a well regarded instructor within the industry. He was most notably the pitching coach for the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Some Boston people tell me that was a good year for them.
- Chipper Jones gives an interview for Forbes. The money quote:
Near the end of the season, you mentioned that you were considering retirement after next season. Now that that the season is over, do you still feel the same?
I was really frustrated with how the middle part of the season went for me. I have such high standards for myself and I will never settle for being a mediocre player. I will work extremely hard to make sure that doesn’t happen again this year.
- The Braves have fired the scout that signed Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, and Kris Medlen (ESPN Rumor Central, subscription required). Law’s assessment is that Tom Battista was a very valuable employee. I think Law is correct, though we can’t possibly know all of the circumstances, therefore it’s impossible for outsiders to properly assess the situation.
- Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors does his Atlanta Braves installment of the Offseason Outlook series. Good stuff and a great starting point for roster construction thoughts. Here’s his take:
My suggestion: retain the starting pitching depth. In all likelihood Kawakami will still be needed for 20+ starts next year. The Braves could instead bump payroll to $100MM, dump Johnson and Logan, go cheap on the bullpen, perhaps backload Hudson’s deal, and spend $9-10MM each for the first base and left field spots. Perhaps Johnson could even be used to acquire a decent late-inning reliever.
I do quibble with him on one point. He says:
Kawakami’s contract isn’t unreasonable. Lowe’s is, given his declining peripherals. Lowe is still useful, though, so the Braves could still trade him and shed 2010 payroll even if they can’t find a taker for all $15MM.
People always say things like this. There’s zero empirical evidence that it’s true. None of his peripherals have declined for a sustained period of time, just 1 year. There’s no evidence it’s not just an aberration and there’s actually no real decline in his skills.
It remains to be seen what is the truth, but only Nostradamus is capable of properly speaking in absolutes with regards to his relative fundamental abilities or the possible decline thereof.
As you all know, Heyward’s AFL campaign is done. Fortunately, that’s about the end of the bad AFL news. Freddie Freeman hit the ball more than once this past week! He actually went 6-16 with a double and a homer, though he drew zero walks and struck out 5 times. Brandon Hicks continued to hit, going 3-9 and drawing 5 walks while striking out only twice.
Mike Minor made two starts this past week. He pitched 3 scoreless innings, allowing 3 hits and 2 walks while recording 1 strikeout, in the first start. He seemingly inexplicably lasted only 1 inning in the second one. He gave up 1 hit and struck out two in a scoreless inning and threw only 16 pitches. It wasn’t a performance thing and I would’ve already heard about it if it were an injury thing, so I’m guessing it’s just nothing. Someone suggested there was a weather delay. Seems like the simplest explanation to me.
Lee Hyde made two appearances this past week, pitching 1 and 2/3 innings, allowing 2 hits (1 HR), 2 walks, and 3 ER while striking out one. Most of the damage came in the first outing. Walk, walk, homer will kill you every time. Jeff Lyman and Craig Kimbrel each made only one appearance and pitched a scoreless inning apiece. Lyman allowed 1 hit in his, Kimbrel’s was perfect.
October 16, 2009 at 12:03 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Economic Analysis, Front Office, Links, Minor Leagues, Prospects, Tim Hudson
Updated: 10/16/2009 6:52 PM EST - See first and last bullet points.
Some links and analysis for your viewing pleasure.
- The Braves have parted ways with Reid Gorecki Vladimir Nunez (Baseball America got it wrong and has since corrected it), Jorge Campillo, and Buddy Carlyle (Hat Tip: Chop-n-Change). They were outrighted to AAA to make room on the 40-man roster for various off-season acquisitions and elected free agency over an outright AAA assignment. Vladimir Nunez is rather old and probably doesn’t have any future in the organization. I’m not so sure Campillo and Carlyle wouldn’t have been useful in 2010, though. Campillo, as most of you know, had season-ending shoulder surgery early in the season. He’s a soft-tossing junk pitcher, but he throws strikes and doesn’t walk many hitters (2.2 BB/9 in 2008). However, the Braves seem to have another similar guy at AAA in Todd Redmond, so maybe the free roster space is worth more than having Campillo on it. Carlyle is perhaps the most intriguing one. In 2008, he added a cutter to his repertoire and the results were very good. He was diagnosed with Diabetes in 2009 and spent most of the year rehabbing. Braves scouts know more than I do, but I figured he might be a useful piece in 2010. Oh well, I’ll be pulling for him wherever he goes. Vladimir Nunez Reid Gorecki was also outrighted and accepted his assignment to AAA . While he remains with the organization, he no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster.
- As many of you know, now former Braves’ scouting director Roy Clark has accepted a position with the Washington Nationals to become their director of scouting and player development. The Braves wasted no time finding a replacement, naming Tony DeMacio their new scouting director shortly after Clark’s departure. As Jim Callis of Baseball America notes (subscription required), DeMacio doesn’t have an impressive track record from his days in Baltimore, but his drafts were sabotaged by a great deal of ownership interference. Clark was very good at his job and will certainly be missed, but unlike Craig Calcaterra of NBCSports, I don’t consider this to be a significant blow to the organization. My belief is that people generally overstate the impact of scouting directors. Don’t get me wrong, they are important. But I believe the that the organization’s philosophy, the scouts themselves, and the general manager are more important. People considered losing Paul Snyder to be a huge blow but the organization soldiered on, largely un-phased. I suspect people will consider losing DeMacio a huge blow after he comes and goes, but life goes on.
- Tim Hudson has gotten a lot of attention in the past few weeks. There was some initial speculation, but a report by Ken Rosenthal that suggested Tim Hudson would likely void the $12 million club option if the Braves were to exercise it and, instead, elect free agency prompted much of the mental energy spent on the issue. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs gives his take, Matthew Pouliot of NBCSports speculates Hudson could get $50 million over 4 years on the open market, and JC Bradbury of Sabernomics makes his case. The report prompted the two Braves beat writers, Mark Bowman of MLB.com and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, to publish articles with quotes from Tim Hudson himself, refuting Rosenthal’s report and suggesting Hudson’s primary desire is to remain in Atlanta. My take: Hudson has never filed for free agency and this season probably represents his last opportunity to land a big contract on the open market. Still, he makes his permanent home in Auburn, Alabama and I believe he is sincere when he states his desire to stay in Atlanta. I believe he probably signs an extension with Atlanta. Perhaps after testing free agency, but I believe he will, in the end, find Atlanta to be the most attractive option.
- Baseball America has released their list of top-20 prospects for each of the 6 leagues in which the minor league affiliates of the Braves participate. I’ll link to them. Gulf Coast League, Appalachian League, South Atlantic League, Carolina League, Southern League, and International League. Several Braves are mentioned. Speaking of prospects, I’ve finished my list and write-ups of the Braves’ top-40 prospects. It was a rather large undertaking, consuming the majority of my baseball endeavors over the past month. Though I’m glad to have finished, it was very fun to do. The new list now appears on the Top Prospects page. You’ll find links to all the goods there.
- Mac Thomason of Braves Journal provides some excellent insight and analysis in his latest post: Where Do We Go From Here? 2009: I. Do the Braves need offense? I generally agree with everything Mac writes. Not only is this article no exception, but it’s particularly insightful. There will undoubtedly be more installments to this series and I’ll most likely continue to link to them.
- Brian McCann underwent a second Lasik Surgery. Fingers crossed is my only comment.
I’ve decided to do an AFL report every Friday in conjunction with my Friday Links segment. I’ll recap the past week’s action. I may add a Monday AFL report segment as the off-season grows and I begin running out of things to talk about.
The Peo Saguaros season kicked off on Tuesday night with Braves 2009 first rounder Mike Minor delivering the first pitch. Minor exited after two innings (he was on a pitch count, standard procedure) having allowed 1 hit, 2 walks, and 1 unearned run. Jason Heyward got the start in right for the season opener and went 2-4 with 2 doubles and a stolen base. Wednesday night, every Braves representitive except Minor got in the game. Heyward again got the start in right and went 1-4 with a double, Freddie Freeman got the start at 1B and went 0-3 with a walk, Brandon Hicks got the start at 3rd and went 0-3. Jeff Lyman was the starting pitcher and allowed 3 hits, a walk, and 1 run in 2 innings. Lee Hyde and Craig Kimbrel each pitched in a scoreless inning in relief, Hyde allowing a hit and a walk, and Kimbrel allowing 2 walks. Hyde recorded a strikeout in the game and Lyman recorded two. Thursday night Heyward got his third consecutive start in right and went 1-4 with a walk. Brandon Hicks got the start at SS this time and went 2-5.
October 9, 2009 at 6:12 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Links, NFL Picks, Transactions
With the Braves’ season done, the hot-stove season has begun. Some links and insights for Friday.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says the Braves may make a run at Matt Holliday. Personally, I think Matt Holliday is a perfect fit for the Braves. He plays good defense and fixes the biggest systematic weakness of the team–the inability to hit for power from the right side. Of course, as a Scott Boras client eligible for Free Agency for the first time, he won’t come cheap. JC Bradbury of Sabernomics speculates he’ll get 4 years, $68 million and Jorge Says No! speculates he’ll get 7 years, $110 million.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Braves will aggressively pursue a right-handed power bat and suggest Nelson Cruz may be a good fit. Cruz is arbitration eligible in 2011 and a free agent after 2014 and the Rangers would presumably want young pitching in return. A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote about Nelson Cruz’s contact rates. The comments section of that article is also rather insightful.
- I’ll make another suggestion with regards to a trade for a right-handed power bat. Carlos Quentin for Nate McLouth. The Braves need a right-handed bat, the White Sox need a left-handed bat. They have similar contract situations, McLouth is owed $12.25 million over the next two years with a $9.4 million net option for 2012. Quentin is arbitration-eligible for the next three years. While McLouth represents financial certainty, Quentin perhaps has the more favorable contract. Neither player lived up to expectations in 2009. McLouth hit .257/.354/.419 with 11 HR in 396 PA’s and played below-average defense in CF for the Braves. Quentin hit .236/.323/.456 with 21 HR in 399 PA’s and played fairly bad defense in LF for the White Sox. McLouth is the superior defender, but Quentin is the superior bat. Quentin’s low average can be attributed to BABIP and injuries, as his contact rates were very good (as well as his walk rates) and his LD% was up from 2008, a year he hit .288/.394/.571 with 36 HR. Quentin is rather injury-prone, but McLouth had his share of injuries in 2009. This is just a purely hypothetical scenario. If it were to happen, I imagine Church would play CF until Schafer is ready and the outfield would eventually consist of, left to right, Quentin, Schafer, Heyward; with Diaz and Church (if he isn’t moved) on the bench. I would have no reservations about starting Church in center for a few months. As Mac Thomason of Braves Journal notes, Church is probably a better Center Fielder than McLouth.
- In the above article David O’Brien also mentions the Braves will likely look to add a reliever or two this off-season to off-set the departure of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Of course, the Braves kicked the tires on acquiring a reliever in July but weren’t able to find a match. My take: adding a “proven closer” is a rather inefficient way to go about shoring up the bullpen. On the other hand, Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves may pursue Free Agent Billy Wagner this off-season. If the price is right, he could be a good fit, but he’ll probably also cost the Braves their 1st round draft pick.
- Speaking of which, the 2010 draft order is out and the Braves will pick 19th (ESPN Insider Subscription Required), provided they don’t sign a Type A Free Agent who was offered arbitration by his previous club.
- Speaking of which, the final Elias Rankings are out. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez project as Type A’s while Garret Anderson and Adam LaRoche project as Type B’s. Tim Hudson missed the cut for Type B status.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com suggests that Frank Wren will try to trade Derek Lowe this winter. My take: if you can trade him, do it, but don’t eat any salary in the process. Lowe will likely be worth his contract, so it’s not necessarily a salary dump from either perspective. Well, it would be, but it’s not like you’re moving a particularly bad contract. Moving a big, valuable contract for financial flexibility is different than moving a big, bad contract.
- David O’Brien writes about which Braves may not return to the team in 2010. I’m not convinced he’s correct about Boone Logan being arbitration eligible in 2010. According to my calculations, he’ll have ~2.6 years of service time which probably makes him a month or two short of Super-2 status. There is a new poll regarding the arbitration-eligible players.
- If you’ve been watching the postseason, you’ve probably noticed that Chip Caray and Joe Simpson are part of the TBS Broadcast team. In my opinion, Joe Simpson has done an outstanding job serving as the Color Analyst for the Phillies-Rockies series. However, Chip Caray has been nothing short of absolutely horehounds. It all started when he botched an extremely important call in the play-in game (game 163) between the Twins and Tigers. He nearly did the exact same thing the following night covering the Yankees-Twins series. As Matt Casey of NBCsports.com notes, ripping on Chip Caray has become an enjoyable October tradition. He’s also been very fond of using the phrase “fisted” to describe a batted ball hit off the handle of the bat, prompting the emergence of this hilarious Twitter page.
- Speaking of announcing, I’m sure most of you know, but Boog won’t be returning to Fox Sports South to call the Braves games next season. He’s accepted a position as the full-time play-by-play announcer for ESPN Radio games. Personally, I really like Boog and I’ll miss having him call the games on a daily basis. That said, this is great news for him as it represents a substantial promotion.
- I can’t wait to watch Nick Blackburn pitch today. He pitched the 1-game playoff last year between the White Sox and Twins, one of the best games I’ve ever seen.
Browns 3 at Bills 24
Steelers 21 at Lions 20
Cowboys 38 at Chiefs 10
Vikings 44 at Rams 6
Raiders 3 at Giants 41
Buccaneers 3 at Eagles 31
Redskins 21 at Panthers 24
Bengals 21 at Ravens 24
Falcons 31 at 49ers 30
Jaguars 10 at Seahawks 11
Texans 35 at Cardinals 17
Patriots 20 at Broncos 21
Colts 28 at Titans 17
Jets 31 at Dolphins 20