9/22 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Phillies, Simmons’ Return, Medlen vs. Strasburg
September 22, 2012 at 12:15 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Braves lineup: Michael Bourn (CF), Martin Prado (SS), Jason Heyward (RF), Chipper Jones (3B), Freddie Freeman (1B), Dan Uggla (2B), Brian McCann (C), Jose Constanza (LF), Mike Minor (P).
Update (1:40p): Mark Bowman reports the Braves will line up their rotation to have Kris Medlen start the wild card game. Medlen and Paul Maholm will swap spots, meaning Medlen will start Tuesday after the off day.
It’s an expected move, as Medlen has been the best starter since being added to the rotation 10 starts ago. While it’s not ideal to have Medlen pushed back in a potential division series, you can’t plan for the NLDS without winning the wild card game, so all efforts must go toward the one game.
Update (1:20p): Andrelton Simmons remains out, with Martin Prado starting at shortstop and Jose Constanza in left field again.
Game 2 vs. Phillies
The Braves lost the series opener with the Phillies 6-2 as Tommy Hanson gave up three home runs and the offense couldn’t do much with Kyle Kendrick.
They will try to even the series today with Mike Minor on the mound against Roy Halladay. The latter hasn’t had a normal Halladay season, recording a 4.03 ERA and 3.57 FIP, but has maintained a 20% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate while still keeping the ball in the park at a rate of less than one homer per game.
Halladay’s ground ball percentage has dropped around 5% from both last year and his career average, sitting at 45.2%. He’s also giving up more line drives and a higher HR/FB rate. The difference could be Halladay throwing far more cut fastballs this year, which could attribute to the drop in fastball velocity across the board. But while his cutter’s outcomes have remained fairly in line with his career norms, his curveball and splitter have taken a small hit, showing a lower whiff/swing rate and higher LD/BIP rate.
Minor struck out just three last time out, but he allowed just one run over six innings against the Nationals. That ran his current hot streak to one run allowed over his past three outings, totaling 18.2 innings.
Game time is 4:05. Nationally: FOX.
MLB.com preview
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Braves.com recap for Friday’s loss.
AJC quotes following Friday’s loss. Tommy Hanson: “I don’t know. I feel like I’m battling my ass off to help my teammates out and to help my team win, and as of right now I’m not doing a very good job. It was a horse[bleep] day. I’m not pulling my weight around here right now.”
In Braves.com notes, Mark Bowman writes on Chipper Jones’ last visit to Philadelphia, in which he received a painting of himself hitting, and John Smoltz’s thoughts on who to start in the wild card game. Hint: You’re looking too far ahead, Smoltzie. The Braves could announce their rotation for the rest of the season and line it up for the wild card game this weekend.
Chipper isn’t a fan of the one-game wild card playoff.
Andrelton Simmons could return today, while Paul Janish is likely out 2-4 weeks with the dislocated shoulder.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs writes on Simmons’ defense and whether it’s the best in the game.
Jonah Keri adds his thoughts on Kris Medlen’s success this year.
James Wagner of The Washington Post compares the career paths of Medlen and Stephen Strasburg to this point, including the what-ifs of Medlen starting earlier in the season and Strasburg pitching later into the season.
Around the NL East
The Marlins are contemplating firing Ozzie Guillen.
Meanwhile, the Miami Herald reports Larry Beinfest likely won’t be fired, contrary to what Bob Nightengale reported yesterday.
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Game 151: Phillies 6, Braves 2
September 22, 2012 at 1:43 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Carlos Ruiz, .135
Least Valuable Phillie: Domonic Brown, -.086
Most Valuable Brave: Dan Uggla, .125
Least Valuable Brave: Tommy Hanson, 42 game score
Big plays:
2nd – (ATL) Dan Uggla double to put two in scoring position with no outs, .126
3rd – (PHI) Kevin Frandsen solo homer for a 2-1 Phillies lead, .130
4th – (PHI) Ryan Howard solo homer for a 3-1 Phillies lead, .114
I just used whatever energy I had left in the day. Discuss amongst yourselves.
9/21 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Phillies, More Medlen Attention, Marlins Moves
September 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Draftstreet Offer
The Draftstreet freeroll offer is back. It’s a $150 prize pool and 10 places paid, and it’s for the games this Friday (9/21). Follow this link to play.
Game 1 vs. Phillies
Coming off a series win over the Marlins, the Braves had Thursday off before visiting Philadelphia for three games this weekend.
The starters in Friday’s game are Kyle Kendrick and Tommy Hanson. Kendrick has been a bit of a rollercoaster in the rotation lately, allowing six runs to the Braves the last time the two met, then throwing consecutive shutouts, maintaining consistency for a few starts, and allowing four runs in five innings to the Astros last time out.
Through all of that, he owns a 3.95 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 143.2 innings, including a 17.3% strikeout and 7.4% walk rate. His strikeout totals and swinging strike rate (8.7%) are well above his career averages, and he has benefited in several of his starts over the past month or two. The key difference seems to be an increase in changeup effectiveness. Last season, his changeup had a whiff/swing rate of 20%, while so far this year it’s 39%. He’s also throwing it far more than in the past at 21.8%.
However, if the last week – and most of this season – is any indication, the Braves offense has done a great job of pinpointing a pitcher’s strong or weak spot and either spitting on it or taking advantage of it. They did so with Gio Gonzalez’s control issues, staying patient and making him throw strikes. They did so against Josh Johnson, pinpointing his slider and hitting around it. If the plan continues, look for the Braves to hit around Kendrick’s changeup and take advantage of a lack of breaking ball and a fastball that can get homer-prone at times.
The Braves are hoping to get another good five-plus innings out of Hanson to turn it over to a fresher bullpen after the day off. Hanson allowed four runs – two earned – over five innings against the Nationals last time out, but he only walked one and struck out seven. The outing tied for the fourth-best K/9 game of his season and showed a bit of the Hanson of old in getting fly balls and strikeouts.
Game time is 7:05. Atlanta: Fox Sports South, Peachtree TV. Philadelphia: CSN.
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Mark Bowman writes on the emergence of Jason Heyward this season.
David O’Brien writes on the struggles of Michael Bourn and getting him going for the playoffs.
Jayson Stark writes that Craig Kimbrel deserves Cy Young consideration.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs writes on Kris Medlen’s awesomeness.
Grant Brisbee of SB Nation writes on Kris Medlen’s awesomeness.
Around the NL East
Bob Nightengale reports the Marlins will fire Larry Beinfest and possibly Michael Hill, the two names running the circus in Miami. Assistant GM Dan Jennings will take over as general manager and vice president/baseball operations. You could see this one coming.
Tom Tango gives his opinion on the potential move to third base for Chase Utley. The name Jason Heyward came to mind when I read this part, although defensive ability is the main factor in that case: “Except you have to appreciate that the long-term solution player needs to be at SS (or CF). This is why Mike Cameron moved to RF when Beltran came, because Beltran was the long-term solution. Putting Beltran at RF and only moving him back to CF might cost the Mets long-term, because there is still a “familiarity” factor to account for. That’s why you want to keep your long-term players stuck at one position if you can.”
Eric Seidman of FanGraphs takes a look at the Utley move, too.
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9/20 News, Links, Discussion: Remaining Games, Hudson’s Future, Draftstreet Offer
September 20, 2012 at 1:42 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Draftstreet Offer
The Draftstreet freeroll offer is back. It’s a $150 prize pool and 10 places paid, and it’s for the games this Friday (9/21). Follow this link to play.
Down the Stretch
The Braves took care of business with a 3-0 win on Wednesday, giving them the series win over the Marlins.
With the win, the Braves are 12-6 in September, the most notable stretch, of course, being the three-game sweep over the Nationals. Washington split a doubleheader with the Dodgers on Wednesday to remain five games ahead of the Braves in the NL East. Over the same month, the Nationals are 10-7.
As has been the case for much of the second half, the rest of the Braves schedule is favorable. After several close games over the past week, the bullpen could use a day off, which they will get today and at the end of the current series with the Phillies. They will use the second off day to travel home to host the Marlins and Mets in their final homestand of the regular season. We all know how the Braves have played those two teams lately.
And the final series is on the road against the Pirates, who have faded terribly in the second half to the tune of 26 wins and 37 losses, including just four wins this month.
If you read this blog, I probably don’t have to tell you anything can happen over a single game, series, month or even season. But the talent level of the teams remaining on Atlanta’s schedule is less than stellar, and over the course of a season that tends to show eventually. It has done so for each of these teams, and the Braves should reap the benefits on the way to a playoff berth. It doesn’t hurt that their chances of making the playoffs right now are 99.9%.
Hudson’s Future
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes on five tough roster calls this offseason, including Tim Hudson’s $9 million team option, for ESPN Insider. While fastball velocity is important, Cameron takes it a bit too far in saying it’s a concern when he “bottomed out” at a two mile-per-hour difference over the span of two months.
Hudson’s velocity has dropped slightly this year, but his contact rates haven’t changed, and he isn’t benefiting from BABIP any more than usual. He’s also allowing fewer home runs than his career average, and his FIP is right in line with his career norm.
Will Hudson decline? Of course. He’s 37 years old. But to throw up red flags based on a slight drop in velocity and swinging strike rate for a pitcher who relies on completely different factors to succeed isn’t how you go about determining his decline.
More Links
Braves.com recap for Wednesday’s win.
AJC quotes following Wednesday’s win. Chipper Jones: “We made an adjustment against Josh. He gets so many swings and misses on that back-foot slider, down and in to lefties. You didn’t see a lot of swings on those. I know he got a couple, but not near what he’s got in the past against us.”
“You could tell by the swings we were taking in the first three innings that we were getting in predictable counts and getting pitches we wanted to hit, and putting them in play.”
From Braves.com notes, Fredi Gonzalez is pondering his No. 1 starter for the playoffs. It will come down to either Kris Medlen or Tim Hudson, with Medlen currently lined up to make the start in the wild card game. The Braves have two off days surrounding this weekend to tinker with that, however. But as far as traditional “best starter on the mound in the biggest game” goes, I would say Medlen at this point.
Also in notes, the Braves could get Andrelton Simmons back this weekend with an outside chance of starting Friday. Paul Janish was sent back to Atlanta for evaluation on his shoulder and won’t know his fate until later today or tomorrow.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a report on Edward Salcedo. “The potential saving grace for Salcedo is age: he’s only 21. The Braves have assigned him to the Arizona Fall League, and it will be extremely interesting to see how he handles it. Based on what he’s done so far in pro ball, his transition to Double-A next year isn’t likely to be a smooth one. Expectations need to be tempered until Salcedo proves he has the skills to make his tools meaningful.”
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Game 150: Braves 3, Marlins 0
September 20, 2012 at 1:01 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Kris Medlen, 79 game score
Least Valuable Brave: Brian McCann, -.036
Most Valuable Marlin: Donovan Solano, .034
Least Valuable Marlin: Justin Ruggiano, -.121
Big plays:
2nd – (ATL) Jose Constanza RBI single for a 2-0 Braves lead, .096
The Braves won their 21st straight Kris Medlen start, the longest streak since the Yankees and Whitey Ford from 1950-1953 when they won 22 straight. He hasn’t lost a game in 26 starts dating back to 2009.
Of Medlen’s 10 starts this season, five have had a game score of 75 or higher, including tonight’s 79. He recorded seven whiffs on 22 changeups thrown. He gave up just three line drives while getting double-digit ground balls, throwing 32 balls and walking one out of 98 pitches. The Marlins had a .182 BABIP against him.
9/19 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Marlins, Draftstreet Offer, Janish/Simmons Updates
September 19, 2012 at 1:30 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Draftstreet Offer
The Draftstreet freeroll offer is back. It’s a $150 prize pool and 10 places paid, and it’s for the games this Friday (9/21). Follow this link to play.
Game 3 vs. Marlins
The Marlins overtook the Braves in extra innings Tuesday as Jose Reyes blooped a single in the 10th off Cory Gearrin to win. Brian McCann provided the big hit in the ninth inning with a two-run double to tie the game.
The rubber game features Josh Johnson and Kris Medlen. I’ve written in Johnson’s past outings against the Braves that his slider isn’t biting quite as much as in previous years, and a 20.5% strikeout rate is slightly below his career average. But he’s maintaining a very good swinging strike rate and is keeping the ball in the park, resulting in a 3.81 ERA and 3.36 FIP.
After a human outing, Medlen returned to his magical ways against the Nationals last time out, striking out a career-high 13 while allowing one run over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 1.62 while upping his strikeout percentage to 23%.
Game time is 7:10. Atlanta: SportSouth. Miami: Fox Sports Florida.
MLB.com preview
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Braves.com recap for Tuesday’s loss.
AJC quotes following Tuesday’s loss. Fredi Gonzalez on Nathan Eovaldi: “He was throwing 97, 98 miles an hour in the eighth inning, and he was commanding all of his breaking pitches. He was tough. He made a pitch on Danny that was 2-2 pitch or a 3-2 pitch that was 98 on the black. No chance. And he did that all night.”
Paul Janish dislocated his shoulder in the ninth inning Tuesday while diving for a ball. He was forced to have someone pop it back in, while he said he usually can do it himself. But X-rays appeared clean and Janish was optimistic of returning soon.
Fredi remains hopeful Andrelton Simmons will return today, so it sounds like his jammed shoulder isn’t enough of an issue to keep him out more than a few days.
David Schoenfield tells us who is projected to start a potential wild card game for each team, with Kris Medlen lining up for the Braves, assuming all remains on track.
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The Wildcard Game Will Be On Fredi Gonzalez’s Shoulders
September 18, 2012 at 11:58 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Before reading this, make sure to read these two posts. One is by Craig Calcaterra and the other is by Dave Cameron.
Now that you’ve done that, let’s talk about what this means. The Braves will have to set their 25-man roster for the one game, which means carrying starting pitchers who wouldn’t enter the game anyway is unnecessary. The same is true for whomever they are playing.
As Dave pointed out, there are a lot of different strategies that could be employed. I like the one he mentions for the Braves the best, but I doubt that happens. Even if it doesn’t, I highly doubt the game will be managed like a normal game. The chances that one of the two teams, the Braves or their opposition, use a significantly different method to managing the game than a normal regular season game or playoff game seems really, really high.
This is putting a ton of pressure on Gonzalez and the Braves front office to develop a plan of attack, so to speak, for this game. I will be looking at different options over the next few weeks for how I would attack the game and how I think the Braves will attack the game, which will most likely be two different strategies. For now, it’s just interesting to note how important Fredi will be for that single game.
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