CAC’s Top 40 Prospects: 20-11
February 21, 2013 at 11:37 am by Ethan Purser under Prospects
We begin this week with a pitcher who has slowly but surely climbed the organizational ladder after being drafted in 2009. We end with a man who, well, needs no introduction.
20. David Hale: RHP | R/R | 6’2”, 210 lbs. | Age: 25 | 3rd round, 2009
Performance: In his first full season in the starting rotation for Double-A Mississippi, Hale gave reasons for both optimism and concern, producing a 3.77 ERA/4.06 FIP with a 124:67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 145.2 innings pitched, the most innings he has pitched in professional baseball. His ERA and strikeout rate were both slightly better than the Southern League; his walk rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio were both worse than league average.
Tools: The athletic righty brings two quality offerings to the table, with his fastball sitting in the low- to mid-90s and his slider sitting in the mid-80s with biting two-plane break. Both pitches, in terms of raw grades, have the potential to be plus offerings; due to his command profile, however, the pitches play a bit lower in game action. He will occasionally flash a changeup, but it is nothing more than a show-me pitch at this point. Hale possesses prototypical tall-and-fall mechanics with a moderate tempo, a three-quarters release point, and very good front-side mechanics. He has an extremely quick arm, though his elbow gets higher than one would like in the back, forcing his arm to catch up with the rest of his body. This can negatively affect command/control.
Future: Hale will move up to Triple-A Gwinnett in 2013 after being added to the 40-man roster this offseason. His full-time move to the rotation in 2012 was understandable, given that a team should do everything in its power to maximize the potential of its prospects. His start-to-start inconsistency mixed with his lack of a playable third pitch ultimately point to a bullpen role long-term. If he can fix his inconsistency issues and somehow develop his changeup into a passable offering, he could slot at the back-end of a rotation. He’ll play next season as a 25-year-old, however, so at this point he is very much an is-what-he-is prospect. He could find himself in the bullpen at some point in 2013. Given his current repertoire and profile, I think he’s a candidate to become a high-leverage bullpen piece in the not-so-distant future.
19. Luis Avilan: LHP | L/L | 6’2”, 220 lbs. | Age: 23 | Signed out of Venezuela, 2008
Performance: After spending time in both the bullpen and the starting rotation for Mississippi in 2012, Avilan was promoted to the big club in July and did not disappoint, posting a 2.00 ERA/2.54 FIP (51 ERA-/66 FIP-) with a 33:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36 innings pitched. In this sample, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 35 percent above his minor league average. Depending upon one’s viewpoint, this could either be seen as an aberration or an increase in his overall skill-set, though the answer likely lies somewhere in-between. He limited home runs with respect to the amount of fly-balls he gave up, which which was seen in an xFIP that was nearly a run and a half higher than his ERA.
Tools: Avilan brings a nice four-pitch mix to the table: a fastball and sinker that both sit in the plus range, a curveball in the mid-70s with above-average lateral movement to the glove side, and a low-80s changeup that features plenty of sink and fade. He primarily attacks right-handed hitters with the sinker and the changeup, which play nicely off of one another. His primary off-speed weapon against arm-side hitters, however, is the curveball, which he throws 32 percent of the time in these situations, according to Brooks Baseball. His mechanics are not that impressive, as he does a poor job of firming up his front side and does not get extended well over his front leg, which could potentially lead to command/control issues. This is not a huge deal, however, as he has already shown the ability to get hitters out at the major league level despite these mechanical flaws; now, he must repeat it.
Future: Going into the spring, Avilan should begin the year in the big club’s loaded bullpen. He’ll be a valuable middle relief option due to his ability to keep both right-handed and left-handed hitters at bay.
18. Luis Merejo: LHP | L/L | 6’0”, 175 lbs. | Age: 18 | Signed out the Dominican Republic, 2011
Performance: When talking about Braves prospects who caught the attention of prospect junkies in 2012, Merejo is one of the first names to come to mind. While his 4.61 ERA was 34 percent worse than the Gulf Coast League average, his 1.81 FIP tells a different story, which can be told by way of incredible component statistics. His strikeout rate was 45 percent better than the league, his walk rate was 37 percent better than the league, and his 53:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio was an astounding 131 percent better than the league. For a 17-year-old in his first taste of professional baseball, those numbers are pretty ridiculous.
Tools: Merejo is a pitchability lefty who may not light up radar guns, but makes up for it due to an advanced idea of how to mix his pitches and locate. The young lefty possesses fringe-average to average fastball velocity, but can reach back for more on occasion. One can usually project young pitchers to add velocity once they begin to physically mature, but it is really hard for one to do that with a pitcher like Merejo due to his small frame. He pairs his fastball with a nice curveball that flashes plus and a developing changeup. His stuff plays up due to a deceptive delivery.
Future: We can gush over his numbers all we want, but this does not change the fact that he’s extremely far away from the highest level of competition. He is, in a way, the opposite of most exciting pitching prospects in the lower minors, in that he has superb control but does not project to add many ticks to his fastball velocity. Pitchers with a smoke-and-mirrors profile can usually exploit hitters in the lower minors, as the “see-ball, hit-ball” mentality does not lend itself to success against a pitcher with somewhat developed secondaries who can locate and change eye levels with ease. As he climbs the ladder, it will be interesting to monitor whether he can continue his success with this approach against more advanced hitters. The Braves were aggressive in placing him in the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old, and while the logical progression would be for him to move to Danville to begin the season, it would not be surprising to see him in Rome at some point in 2013 given his relative polish. If this happens, look for Merejo to start popping onto the national prospect scene.
17. Kyle Kubitza: 3B | L/R | 6’3”, 190 lbs. | Age: 22 | 3rd round, 2011
Performance: In the aggregate, Kubitza performed well in 2012, posting averages of .239/.349/.393 with 24 doubles, nine triples, nine home runs, and a 73:127 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 531 plate appearances. He showcased a plethora of skills in his full-season debut, evidenced by a .333 secondary average. His monthly splits were all over the place, compiling an OPS of .977 in April, .687 in May, .825 in June, .651 in July, and .814 in August. Ultimately, his walk rate and secondary average were 52 percent and 33 percent better than the league, respectively. His strikeout rate, on the other hand, was 21 percent worse than the South Atlantic League.
Tools: Possessing sound tools across the board, Kubitza stood out in many looks last season. His tall, lean frame offers plenty in the way of projection for future muscle development. While he did commit 20 errors last season, he improved as the year progressed. This is a normal trait with young third basemen, as the need for professional development at this dynamic position will sometimes cause players who are on the rawer end of the spectrum to struggle in the lower minors. He has all of the tools to make these improvements, however, and began to do so last season. He has a strong arm, though he can occasionally let it get away from him. At the plate, Kubitza’s swing projects well for both contact and power; he has a bit of a hitch in his load, which is considered to be a positive if done properly and not in excess (i.e., keeping the hands somewhat connected to the back shoulder). This allows the barrel to begin moving without getting long in the back of his swing, thus allowing him to wait until the last moment before committing to any pitch. He has some loft in his swing path, though it is more conducive to hard line drives currently. Kubitza’s power is of the bat-speed and wrist-strength variety, as opposed to a hulking slugger who uses sheer strength and excessive leverage to send balls into the seats. He’s not afraid to take balls out to left-center, as some of his most prodigious shots have come in this area. He’s an incredibly patient hitter with a developed plan in place at all times. On the basepaths, Kubitza is a solid-average to plus runner once underway.
Future: Lynchburg seems to be the next step for Kubitza in his climb up the organizational ladder. If everything comes together, Kubitza could develop into an everyday third baseman with a wide array of tools and skills. Month-to-month consistency will be key for the 22-year-old in 2013.
16. Aaron Northcraft: RHP | R/R | 6’4”, 225 lbs. | Age: 22 | 10th round, 2009
Performance: No Braves pitcher above Low-A raised his stock more than Northcraft in 2012. The big righty from Mater Dei High School was an integral part of a vaunted staff in Lynchburg, and while his 3.98 ERA was ever so slightly above the league average, his peripherals stood out in a huge way. He finished the season with a 2.64 FIP and a 160:53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.2 innings pitched. His strikeout rate rose 36 percent from 2011 to 2012, registering a solid 23 percent above Carolina League average. His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which also markedly improved from 2011 to 2012, was a solid 22 percent above the league. One of Northcraft’s best attributes is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as evidenced by a 2.48 groundball-to-flyball ratio, a figure that was 119 percent above Carolina League average. That’s, uh, pretty good.
Tools: Northcraft’s 6’4”, 225-pound frame is seemingly built to eat innings. He attacks hitters from a low-three quarters arm slot with a fastball that sits average, a plus sinker (which, coincidentally, garners Tim Hudson comparisons), and a developing slider and changeup. He has a long-ish arm action, though he maintains deception in his delivery by throwing across his body. He firms up his front side in an efficient manner and lands on a firm, yet flexed, front leg, allowing him to finish his pitches well out front. In the past, he utilized an El Duque-style leg kick, but he has since replaced this with a more normal leg raise. His repertoire plays up due to an advanced ability to mix his pitches, which aids in keeping hitters off-balance. The 22-year-old can occasionally struggle with command in the zone, a trait that is common among younger pitchers.
Future: Northcraft was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, which speaks to the organization’s faith in his ability to repeat his 2012 performance as he moves to Double-A in 2013. He will be 23 years old in Mississippi next season, an age that is certainly level-appropriate. The consensus prior to this season was that Northcraft was “just” a good organizational piece; this is definitely no longer the case, as one can realistically view his ceiling as an innings-eating, back-of-the-rotation arm. If this doesn’t work out, he would be an asset as a ground-ball specialist out of the bullpen.
15. Bryan De La Rosa: C | R/R | 5’8”, 193 lbs. | Age: 18 | 3rd round, 2012
Performance: Upon signing in June, De La Rosa struggled mightily in the Gulf Coast League, posting averages of .162/.194/.221 with one double, one home run, and a 2:30 walk-to-strikeout rate in 73 plate appearances. He spent all of his time on defense behind the plate, throwing out 30 percent of base stealers while allowing 13 passed balls and committing nine errors in 28 games. Everyone performs horribly in the GCL, but this was especially painful.
Tools: De La Rosa possesses all of the tools one should expect from a defense-first catching prospect drafted out of high school — big arm, big tools behind the plate, and the bat . . . well, we’ll see. The arm is a serious weapon, registering Christian Bethancourt-esque pop times in Perfect Game showcases prior to the draft. While he is quick and agile behind the plate, he’s understandably raw in the finer points of catching, though he has plenty of time to work on these issues and all of the potential in the world to make the necessary adjustments. The idea of the swing is there; for the most part, he’s fairly short and quick to the ball, displaying enviable bat speed. He utilizes a heel-plant trigger after an initial short stride, and while he does have some loft in his swing, one has to squint in order to see him developing anything more than average power as he continues to mature physically. Speed will never be a part of De La Rosa’s game.
Future: While it is fun to dream on De La Rosa’s potential, we (read: I) probably need to tap the brakes a bit. High school position players — especially catchers — are inherently risky entities. This isn’t to say he should be dinged as a prospect; rather, expectations must be tempered with the caveat that he has plenty of legitimate tools that could play at the major league level at the highest position on the defensive spectrum. De La Rosa will more than likely begin this year back in the Gulf Coast League, barring any major developments this spring.
14. Matt Lipka: OF | R/R | 6’1”, 195 lbs. | Age: 20 | 1st round, 2010
Performance: Like La Stella, Lipka missed a good portion of 2012 due to injury. Prior to the injury, however, Lipka was making subtle across-the-board improvements from his miserable 2011 campaign, posting averages of .271/.335/.337 with five doubles, one triple, and two home runs with a 20:32 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 229 plate appearances. He added 12 stolen bases in 18 attempts. Although there were improvements, Lipka was still a below-average hitter in the Carolina League, evidenced by a 89 wRC+.
Tools: Lipka will flash four above-average to plus tools. The problem, however, is that he has not yet developed the necessary skills at the plate in order to properly showcase his offensive tools, and that’s okay; he’ll play 2013 as a 21-year-old, so he still has time to continue the development of his plate discipline, among other things. On the plus side, Lipka has a fair amount of contact in his bat; he’s short to the ball, though his top hand’s lack of authority can sometimes lead to problems with barrel control. The plane of his swing is extremely flat through the zone, and combined with lower-half inefficiencies, his future power output seems to be fringe-average, at best. Lipka can run — the plus-plus label has been thrown around on this tool — which aided in his move to center field this season. Along with his solid-average to plus arm strength, he should be an asset in this new position.
Future: Due to his injury and lost development time in 2012, one should expect Lipka to return to Lynchburg to begin the season. As mentioned earlier, he will still be young for his league even if he does repeat this level. The lofty expectations surrounding a high draft pick have certainly followed Lipka, and while he has yet to live up to the deserved hype surrounding his tools, the potential for breakout remains if he continues to hone his skills alongside his raw tools. Inherent within this claim, however, is the potential for a bust, though it’s far too early to begin this discussion with respect to Lipka.
13. Tommy La Stella: 2B | L/R | 5’11”, 185 lbs. | Age: 24 | 8th round, 2011
Performance: Injuries sidelined La Stella for a good portion of last season, but this did not stop the second baseman from producing when in the lineup for Lynchburg. The Coastal Carolina product posted averages of .302/.386/.460 with 22 doubles, five triples, and five home runs with a 36:24 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 358 plate appearances. The lefty handled both right-handed and left-handed pitching with ease. His component statistics compared quite favorably with the Carolina League; his secondary average, walk rate, and strikeout rate were 26 percent, 23 percent, and 66 percent better than the league, respectively.
Tools: If La Stella makes it to the highest level of competition, it will be because of his bat. He possesses an incredibly sound swing that generates a high amount of hard contact. In his set position, his base is extremely spread (picture a smaller version of Adam Laroche), but he utilizes a leg-kick trigger to gather his weight over his back leg. From here, he allows his hips to lead his hands, aiding in the separation between the two halves. His swing is extremely short and quick to the ball, allowing him to spray line drives from foul pole to foul pole. His swing has some loft, which aids in his above-average gap power, though his future home run output will likely be below-average. Plate discipline is one of La Stella’s primary skills that has been on display since his college days, and this trait will continue to serve him well as he climbs the ladder. On the basepaths, La Stella is a smart runner who knows how to choose his spots wisely, but he will never be a huge stolen base threat due to a lack of above-average speed. He is the type of defender who will always maximize his tools; the unfortunate realization, however, is that he will never be above-average due to poor lateral agility, poor hands, and an arm that is certainly lacking.
Future: The next step for La Stella should be a promotion to Mississippi, with a promotion to Gwinnett probable at some point in 2013. We should see expect more of the same from La Stella, though if he can improve his defense at least marginally, his stock would take a huge jump. Second basemen have to hit a ton in the minors in order to be projected for future starting roles in the majors, and luckily for La Stella, he can really hit. The worry, however, is that his defense forces him to a corner position, where the offensive demands are commensurate with the lowered defensive responsibilities. Another concern is his age — he will play 2013 as a 24-year-old in the Southern League. While he is certainly not ancient, time isn’t necessarily on his side, either.
12. Joe Terdoslavich: 1B/OF | S/R | 6’0”, 200 lbs. | Age: 24 | 6th round, 2010
Performance: Braves fans had high hopes for Terdoslavich in 2012 after his impressive 2011 campaign in which he infamously rapped out 52 doubles in Lynchburg, setting a new Carolina League record along the way. Braves officials responded to his success by promoting him to Gwinnett to begin 2012, thereby skipping Double-A altogether, while moving him across the diamond to third base. Terdoslavich struggled mightily in Triple-A, posting averages of .180/.252/.263 with eight extra-base hits and a 19:50 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 215 plate appearances. His defense at third base was perhaps even worse, committing 22 errors in 130 defensive chances. The Braves stopped the bleeding in the beginning of June, demoting him to Mississippi where he would spend the rest of the summer at first base. He performed much better in the Southern League, hitting .315/.372/.480 with five home runs, 24 doubles, five triples, and a 27:62 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 333 plate appearances. When compared to the Southern League, Terdoslavich posted a favorable strikeout rate, secondary average, and OPS (four percent, seven percent, and 20 percent better than league average, respectively). Keep in mind, however, that this came from a 23-year-old in Double-A who was occupying the lowest position on the defensive spectrum.
Tools: As is the case with a majority of first base prospects, Terdoslavich is not particularly tool-laden beyond the bat. On defense, his lateral agility is poor, his hands are like bricks, and his arm is below-average. The move to third base, while an understandable decision from a player development/positional maximization standpoint, was not going to work without major improvements, which he failed to make. He is a slow runner on the basepaths who can pick his spots, but will likely never be a threat at the highest level. The bat, on the other hand, is a legitimate plus in Terdoslavich’s favor. He utilizes a leg-raise trigger and is a tip-and-rip hitter from both sides of the plate. This loading mechanism creates early bat speed and aids with the separation of his hips and hands without getting long in the back. His swing has a tight arc through the zone with plenty of loft through contact. Taken as a whole, Terdoslavich possesses a swing that could produce 20 home runs and a .270-.280 average at maturity, though the lack of plate discipline certainly diminishes the probability of this coming to fruition.
Future: Terdoslavich should resurface in the International League to begin 2013. This time around, however, he will likely be playing first base and/or left field. At this point, all signs point to Terdoslavich providing major league value as a first base/left field bench bat who can be utilized in numerous situations due to his ability to hit from both sides of the plate and do so with efficacy. He’s not Chipper’s heir apparent — we all knew he wouldn’t be. This doesn’t mean he’s a terrible prospect, though.
11. Evan Gattis: OF/C | R/R | 6’4”, 230 lbs. | Age: 26 | 23rd round, 2009
Performance: Spring is upon us, and Evan Gattis is still the talk of the town among Braves media members. His story is well-documented, his destruction in batting practice is enough to make Davis from Mr. Baseball blush, and he even has this as his twitter profile picture. According to Franklin, he may also be a time traveler whose objectives include the abduction of Paul Maholm and the perpetuation of narratives for our favorite bold-flavor beat writer. When looking solely at the numbers, Gattis certainly had an eyebrow-raising campaign in 2012. After posting ridiculous numbers in High-A during the month of April, Gattis was promoted to Double-A, where he hit his way to a 139 wRC+ in 207 plate appearances. Over the course of the season, he posted averages of .305/.389/.607 with 18 home runs, 20 doubles, four triples, and a 31:43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 314 plate appearances between Lynchburg, Mississippi, and the Gulf Coast League, where he played a four-game rehab stint after injuring his wrist in May. The big Texan split his time between catching and left field, nailing 39 percent of runners from behind the plate and committing one error in 52 chances in the outfield. He tore up the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason.
Tools: Gattis possesses plus raw power that is achieved by way of good bat speed and brute physical strength. He begins his stance in a crouched position with his left leg open. He loads his hands well, allowing his top hand to be involved in order to minimize bat wrap behind the helmet, which aids in the efficacy with which he controls the bat within the zone. When he reaches the launch position, the biggest concern is his lead arm and the extent to which it is extended (this is called an arm bar, for what it’s worth). As a swing enthusiast, I normally shy away from dinging hitters too much for possessing this trait, as it usually foretells good things in the power department and is, after all, a static position within the swing (i.e., there are so many other crucial aspects within a swing). The problem comes in, however, when the arm becomes a hindrance in delivering the barrel to inside velocity. If a hitter fails to break down this arm extension and breaks the link between his back shoulder and his hands, the only way he can get to an inside pitch is to yank like the dickens with his front side, which opens up holes with respect to secondary offerings on the outer-portion of the plate. The lower one goes in the minors, the harder it is to find a pitcher who can locate his fastball well on the inner-portion of the plate, so this is an issue he has likely yet to face. This should not pose a problem with fastballs out and over the plate, however — in all actuality, he should be able to crush these pitches. All of that wrapped up and tied neatly with a bow: Gattis has some inefficiencies in his swing that may lead to exploitation on the inner half as he nears the majors. He could obviously still succeed — there are players with much uglier swings who have performed well at the highest level. Unless he makes some adjustments, however, the potential for a multitude of broken bats is present. Behind the plate, the worry is that he will get too big for the position, negatively affecting his lateral agility and ability to block balls. He does, however, possess a strong arm and the ability to frame and track pitches well. On the whole, he’s not someone you would want behind the plate for 130+ games, but he could handle the position in small doses as a second or third option. He is not a fast runner, which has obvious implications if/when he plays left field, but he’s athletic enough to be able to handle the position at an adequate level.
Future: This is the elephant in the room, so to speak. Franklin’s assessment of the situation surrounding Gattis sums up my overall thoughts on him. We don’t dislike Gattis around here — none of us want to see him fail, as we all have a rooting interest in the team and, for the most part, the players who are employed by them. What we try to do, however, is look at the game in an objective manner in order to find trends that can help us better understand the past as a means of predicting the future. What we know about the past is that older hitting prospects can artificially boost their stock by beating up on both physically and developmentally inferior pitching, and that we as prognosticators can get too overly excited about outcomes that don’t really mean much when looking at these types of players. Evan Gattis, any way you slice it, is old as a prospect. Not only did he play 2012 as an “old” 25-year-old (August birthday), he was old for every league in which he played. Gattis is also extremely physically developed. Can you imagine that man, as he stands currently, playing for the Rome Braves in 2011? It was truly awesome to witness a full-grown 24-year-old hit bombs off of young, fresh-out-of-high-school 20-somethings. However, we must take a step back in the evaluation process due to the aforementioned concerns. Now, does this mean that we don’t think Gattis can provide major league value in the not-so-distant future? Of course not! His positional flexibility combined with the pop in his bat will almost certainly provide value in a bench role, possibly as soon as this year. The key to understanding our side of the argument in the ongoing Gattis debate is simple: temper expectations, or there’s a good chance that the masses will be let down. This is not to say that it’s an absolute that he will not develop into an above-average regular; rather, the odds of this happening are not particularly high, all things considered. This is actually a good lesson concerning prospecting in general: manage expectations accordingly, or you will inevitably get burned.
*All statistics/measures courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, The Baseball Cube, Minor League Central, and Perfect Game USA.
CAC Mailbag 2/21
February 21, 2013 at 9:01 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
@Hipp0Toddamus: How can the Braves best utilize the DH spot in road games at AL parks this year?
I think there will be a variety of ways to tackle this, with the most likely being using it to give guys days off. I imagine against lefties that Reed Johnson finds his way into the lineup and one of the outfielders gets slotted in the DH spot, and against righties the Braves try and find a day for McCann to get some rest and also use Chris Johnson pretty regularly. If Gattis can really rake and makes the roster as a reserve, he would be a solid guy to use in the DH spot throughout the year as well. The Braves have two solid DH types at third base already, and with how regularly they will be playing in the platoon they will likely participate in, I would bet on one of those two leading the team in starts at DH by the end of the year.
@pharmongsu: Why shouldn’t BJ Upton lead off vs. LHP?
For his career, B.J. has a .260/.365/.433 line against left-handed pitching, good for a 119 wRC+ overall. He is definitely one of the team’s top hitters against left-handed pitching, and I think leading him off against southpaws is a great idea. The likelihood if it actually happening seems low at this point, as the team seems to really want to go with Simmons in the leadoff spot and for some reason they act as if this is one spot that is not good to rotate. Having him bat fifth against southpaws is still a good deal, and I imagine he will be driving in his brother pretty often in games against lefties.
@jbrundage: do you think the new added big bats will take pressure off of Uggla and he won’t struggle as much this season at the plate?
Over at CAC, the mental aspect of the game and “pressure” are things we try and avoid. Not that we don’t think they are a factor, but it is impossible to quantify and the analysis usually seems highly speculative. With that said, I do feel that Uggla could surprise us this year. He will be hitting seventh at the start of the year, and I doubt many teams will have a number seven hitter as good as Uggla. While his two years in Atlanta have been lackluster compared to expectations and compared to his performance in his final year in Florida, he still has posted consecutive years with a wRC+ above 100. His ISO dropping to .164 is not something to expect, but his walk rate will likely take a little dip back closer to his career rate as well. I think expecting a year like he had in 2007, when he hit .245/.326/.479 with a 105 wRC+ is reasonable to expect. The slugging percentage will probably be lower, something like .450 or so, but mid 20′s home runs and a decent OBP at the bottom of the lineup could be a huge part of the team’s offensive success. I think when people will look back on the year if he does perform at that level, they will state that the pressure of having a new set of right-handed hitters hitting higher in the order took the pressure off, but the more likely reason would be a regression back closer to his career norms.
@Harrisnye: Is Simmons already the best defensive SS in baseball or is that a ceiling he hasn’t actually reached yet?
I think by the end of the year, he will certainly have an argument for it. His arm is comparable to any of the game’s top shortstops, but I don’t think it is fair to Brendan Ryan to say that anyone is better than him at this point. Over the past four years, Ryan has averaged 22 defensive runs saved. Defensive stats are not the most trustworthy, but given a large sample size that helps mitigate the noise you can make relatively accurate assumptions about a player’s overall defensive skill. Ryan has consistently performed as the game’s top defensive shortstop over the past number of years, so Simmons will have to take a back seat to him for the time being. I think it is a stretch to assume Simmons will post those kinds of defensive numbers over that long of a stretch, but it is reasonable to expect 10+ defensive runs saved during his six year pre-free agent stretch in Atlanta.
The 2013 Catching Situation
February 20, 2013 at 4:00 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
I suppose having 3 off-days through April 15th makes losing McCann a little easier. The Braves will play 12 games by the projected comeback date, but Interleague Play unfortunately doesn’t help as I had hoped as the Royals come to Atlanta on McCann’s supposed return. It would have been nice to go to Kansas City and bring McCann back as a DH for a few games, but there’s nothing we can do about that. Regardless of the small details, one has to wonder if he’ll even be back by then. We certainly hope he comes back as expected, but considering major injuries often have setbacks (especially as the player begins ramping things up), he might not make it back by then. We’ll just have to wait and see with that. But knowing that he’ll be out for a period of time, what can we expect from Braves catchers in 2013?
Let’s first take a look at Brian McCann. Over his 7+ seasons, he’s basically averaged 4 wins a season with a career line of .279/.351/.475 (.354 wOBA, 116 wRC+), and considering the averages for catchers over the past few seasons have been .246/.317/.395, .310 (wOBA), and 92 (wRC+), it’s easy to see how McCann has been an extremely valuable offensive player in his career. Better yet, McCann has often received strong marks for his defense due to his ability to frame pitches, though his reputation as a defensive catcher has never been strong.
The shoulder surgery and time off, of course, are likely to hurt his value in 2013 (at least on an overall basis). If he comes back by the 15th, he’ll miss half a month or 1/12 of the season, and if he comes back May 1st, he’ll miss one month or 1/6 of the season. Given the two week scenario, McCann would lose about 8% of his value, which leaves him with 3.7 wins. Taking the month scenario, McCann loses 17% of his value, which leaves him with 3.3 wins. Because of the injury, the Braves are likely to be more cautious with him once he returns, which may mean a loss of 5-10 more games simply due to limiting his workload. Even if we take a conservative approach of 10 more games, he’d lose about 0.3 more wins, leaving the team with 3.4 or 3.0 wins.
Next, we have to think about his quality of play once he returns as he may not play at that 4-win level. Will the surgery make everything better, and will the healing restore the old McCann? If you think so, a 3-win catcher is about what one could expect from McCann. If you expect things to be a bit rough as he recovers from shoulder surgery, last season’s 2 wins (.230/.300/.399) in 121 games seems reasonable. So basically we’re looking at 120ish games with 2-3 wins of value. Projections on McCann are bit more optimistic, but none of them “know” McCann suffered a shoulder surgery (projections are awesome things, but they’re meant for average siuations and can lose some details of context). Shoulders (ball-and-socket joints) are harder to correct because they are more complex than elbows or knees (hinge joints). There is, of course, a non-negligible chance that McCann’s shoulder is completely shot, but we’ll have to wait for more information before we go there.
McCann only played in 121 games last season, so using David Ross’ playing time from last year, we should expect the 200 PA to be taken by someone else. Gerald Laird is the man who will likely fill most of those batter’s boxes. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit a combined .264/.324/.368 (.303 wOBA, 89 wRC+) and has been worth a total of 1 win in 300 PA. Looking at that over 200 PA, Laird should be worth about half a win, which could fluctuate either way due to BABiP, luck, defense against, aging, etc. Ross, of course, was worth 1.5 wins in those plate appearances, so the team is losing some value there. What we’re looking at here is about 2.5-3.5 wins from McCann and Laird.
I suppose you also want to know who the backup backup catcher will be and how he’ll play. The only thing I can tell you is that he won’t play much. Over the 26 games in the first month, he’ll probably play 5-6, and if it’s only 2 weeks, he’ll play 2-3. So whether it’s Matt Pagnozzi, Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt, Matt Kennelly, Shawn McGill, or some other dude, it’s not likely to make a lot of difference (Boscan was replacement level last season). If they do have to play an extended period of time because McCann’s injury is worse or (deity forbid) Laird also gets hurt, I’d imagine that trading for one of the myriad of catchers being bounced around this off-season on waiver wires might be a decent trade option. I wouldn’t expect this current contingent to be the answer there. But as for now, we are going to assume McCann’s shoulder recovers nearly on schedule, and if it does, the third catcher isn’t likely to play much of a role.
During the 2012 season, the combination of McCann, Ross, and JC Boscan produced 3.5 wins. Given a healthier, stronger McCann, McCann could reach that all by himself, but even if he isn’t quite back to that form (and 4 per 600 PA is on the lower side of what a healthy McCann is capable), the new combo of McCann/Laird/whoever is likely to be within a win of that number. A 3-win catching duo isn’t the 5.5 wins from 2011 or the incredible 7.1 from 2010, but it remains above-average. Shoulder injuries (and injuries in general) can be scary things. How McCann will react and perform is still to be determined, but for the moment, the catching situation isn’t all that bad, even if it doesn’t have a high upside. We have about 2 months until we know more, and if needed, we may have to revisit this later. For the moment, the strategy seems to be to hope for the best because the team probably would have added someone else if they expected worse.
An Open Inquiry Into the Whereabouts And Well Being of Paul Maholm
February 19, 2013 at 11:09 am by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
I’m unsure if Paul Maholm is on the team, in fact I’m unsure if he’s even still alive. He’s listed on the roster, but despite our various and sundry beat writers chronicling virtually every moment of spring training through the lens of their cell phone cameras, I am yet to see or hear a single thing about Maholm. Well, except that one time he tweeted in support of Jason Heyward’s Face of MLB run (in which I can only suppose that Heyward becomes Vice Chancellor of MLB and that his face is on all game used balls during the entirety of the season). But I remain unconvinced as to the authenticity of that tweet. The guy’s only appearance is through such an untrustworthy channel as twitter, and its a shill for the company’s interests? Please. Not a single confirmed 3rd party tweet, picture, story or whisper of this man to be found anywhere in this informational super-age?
Now, I am aware of virtually every single movement Chipper Jones (an individual who is neither an actual coach or a player on the team) has made. I’m fairly certain you could go through McAlpin, Bowman, DOB, et al’s twitpics and in fact make a 3 dimensional flip book rendering of Chipper’s entire time in camp thus far. But our 4th starter (perhaps even our third)? not a whisper. This must run deep, if not even David O’Brien is getting to the bottom of it. If you really take a look at things, one possibility is that Evan Gattis is in fact a terminator sent from the future to both abduct Maholm, and create narratives for O’Brien to endlessly enchant us with, such that he cannot fathom other interests, except maybe rehashing worries about TOO MANY KS YOU GUYS.
If anyone has any clues to the whereabouts or well being of Paul Maholm, please contact Andrew (@decisions_brave) via twitter, as he holds the official #Maholmwatch, currently on day 9.
*I apologize for this departure from the normal tone and nature of CAC, but A) it’s spring and B) THIS IS SERIOUS YOU GUYS WHERE THE HECK IS HE?!
2/18/13 CACast: Rotational Ramblings
February 18, 2013 at 7:37 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
Franklin, Ben and Andrew discuss the rotation for the upcoming season. Also, why pitcher wins are stupid.
Music:
The Tom Collins – TKMT
The Whigs – Rock and Roll Forever (Click to buy
Ryan Bingham – Country Roads (Click to buy
Or directly download the mp3:
Download this episode (right click and save)
or subscribe via iTunes through the link in the sidebar ———->
The Only Real Worries With Heyward
February 18, 2013 at 1:09 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
Last year saw Jason Heyward get himself more or less completely back on track towards being the franchise cornerstone superstar we all thought he would be after his outstanding rookie season. He rebounded in virtually every traditional offensive category, and when you add in his superb baserunning and otherworldy fielding, he was a 6 win player overall.
However, I believe there are a few aspects of his game that are still a bit worrisome. I don’t think they’re things that can’t be overcome, after all he is just 23, and has more than held his own at the Major League level since he was 20 years old, an age when most players are in low A ball. But there are a couple things to be concerned about.
First, Jason still has the up and inside hole in his swing:
Here is his contact rate graph:
In play rates:
When he does put the ball in play, here’s his BABIP graph:
And here’s his in play ISO, to give a rough idea of how hard he hits the ball when in play:
As we can see, up and in Heyward: misses a lot (62% contact rate for a spot in the strike zone is REALLY bad), fouls the ball off a lot when he does make contact, and makes very weak contact when he does put the ball in play. Essentially, even last year, up and in was a “no danger” zone for pitchers.
Luckily for Heyward, pitchers are not used to pitching in the zone up and in. They mostly hate it, in fact. As we can see from the graph of where pitchers pitched to Heyward, even though they pitched him more up and in than a league average hitter, it wasn’t that much more, and pitchers still mostly attempted to pound low and away, as that’s their general strategy for every hitter:
Pitchers actually threw Heyward almost twice as many pitches on the lower, outer 1/9 of the zone as they did the up and in 1/9, which essentially reflects pitchers pitching to their comfort zone, rather than executing a plan to get Heyward out.
However, perhaps pitchers were a bit less worried about Heyward last year, after his offensively mediocre 2011, and were just less worried. Perhaps they will return to being very afraid of Heyward again this year and will again return to pounding him up and in.
Further, it was concerning that Heyward’s walk rate dropped last year, while his strikeout rate rose. Heyward was only in the 53rd percentile in walk rate last season (8.9%), while being in the bottom 26th percentile in strikeout rate (23.3%). As Andrew has pointed out, strikeout rate isn’t the be all and end all, but in certain ways, they can be alarming.
Essentially strikeouts aren’t as bad, if they’re a result of being patient and waiting for a pitch you can really drive. That is, sometimes if you take a couple of pitcher’s pitches, you end up in a hole, and strike out on a nasty 0-2 curveball. However, would you have really been any better off if you had simply made weak contact on the 0-1 pitchers pitch and grounded weakly to the second baseman? Not really, especially not if there was a man on first base, that led to a double play. However, strikeouts can be very concerning if they’re a result of a lot of swing and miss, and that’s where things are a tad bit worrisome with Heyward. last year Heyward was in the 20th percentile in swing and misses, when he swung and missed 27% of the time, compared to a league average of 21%. That’s troublesome to say the least. When a player swings, making contact is a good thing. Further, Heyward’s plate approach was a bit worrisome as well, when he was in the bottom 36th percent in swinging at fewest strikes in the zone (45.3%), but also in the bottom 33rd percent in swinging at balls out of the zone (30.7%). That’s a bit of a cocktail for worry, when combined. Heyward took more strikes, swung at more balls, and made less contact than a league average player. It’s not the strikeouts themselves that are worrisome, it’s what caused them that is worrisome.
Now, that all being said, Heyward more than made up for those deficiencies last year by absolutely destroying pitches over the entire lower 1/3, and everything over the middle, as we saw with his in play ISO graph. Further, like I’ve said, he’s still young, and as we saw with the pictures from spring training thus far, he’s actually still physically developing. A guy as big as Heyward will always have a little bit of trouble with the up and in pitch, but he can adjust and at least handle it. For now, it’s something that is concerning, but not something to freak out about. I would definitely like to see the return of his rookie season plate approach as well, when he swung at 42% of pitches in the zone, and only chased 22% of balls out of the zone (ie he only swung at slightly fewer strikes, and many fewer balls).
If Heyward can address these two issues this year, we could absolutely see him blossom into an MVP. If he can’t, he’ll probably ‘just’ remain very good.
Evan Gattis: Age Ain’t Nothin’ But A Number (but numbers are important)
February 15, 2013 at 1:04 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
I guess at some point we had to take the bear on instead of poking it in the comments. You often hear the familiar trope, “age ain’t nothin’ but a number” and it’s often applied to the case of Evan Gattis by hopeful Braves fans, and perhaps even some talent evaluators who follow the Braves. In some sense they’re right, all it is is a number, but as it turns out, it’s a very important number. Today we’re going to discuss that number, what it does mean, what it doesn’t mean, and how it affects our evaluation of Gattis.
One charge we often get at Capitol Avenue Club is that we overplay the importance of age as the be all and end all of prospect evaluation, and we need to get our heads out of the birth certificates and WATCH THE GAMES. Evan Gattis is a beast they say, pummeling fourth world countries into near oblivion with home run power not seen the side of Giancarlo Stanton. Gattis has an interesting story they say, it’s not that he was a failed prospect, it’s that he was outside of baseball for several years, so we shouldn’t hold his age against him they say.
Let’s first observe how age changes the perception of a prospect. Rany Jazayerli laid out the importance of age very profoundly in his excellent piece in Extra Innings: More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus
Rany’s study first looked at high school draftees, what Rany found is that controlling for the spot a player was drafted in, the five youngest player’s in a draft year produced 117 percent more value for their draft spot than the 5 oldest players in the draft. 117 Percent. That’s over twice as good.
Now, first you might think “well, that is the five youngest versus the five oldest, pretty extreme right?” Consider that this is for high school draftees only. So the five youngest players in the draft were barely a year younger than the five oldest. What we see is that a difference between 7-11 months in age when a player is drafted can mean that scouts undervalue their talent level by 117 percent.
On the flip side of that, we have the effect popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers: The Story of Success
The answer is no, these seemingly disparate trends actually point in the same direction, and for the same exact reason. And it’s neither good nor bad, as far as skill goes, to be young or old for your level. The reason why is that age doesn’t affect ultimate skill level (ie what a player will ultimately become), it affects perception.
Remember what Rany found wasn’t necessarily that the younger players ended up being better players than the older players. He found that, given where they were drafted, they ended up being much better than you would have expected. That is, that they were underrated. Conversely, he found that the older players were overrated, and ended up being much worse than would have been expected, given where they were drafted. People often confuse underrated with good and overrated with bad. When I tell people that I think BB King was overrated, it’s not that I think he was a bad guitarist, I think he was fantastic, it’s that I think he wasn’t as good as Freddie King, Albert King, not to mention a whole host of other great bluesmen not named King.
Similarly, the reason why kids who are ‘old for their level’ are more likely to be drafted is simply because they’re overrated, because they’re using an extra year of physical development to fool scouts as to their true projectable level.
Thus far we’ve been talking about the draft. However, the same principle applies throughout minor league development as well. Players who are old for their level will often beat up on less physically developed players, and fool you with regards to their talent level, if you’re not careful. Conversely, a player who is young for his level, but succeeds anyway, is an incredibly special player indeed. The most remarkable thing about Heyward’s rookie season wasn’t the raw numbers. It was that he put those numbers up as a twenty year old. Incidentally, it’s quite possible that the only reason Heyward fell to the Braves where he did was that he, like Mike Trout, was young for his level when drafted out of high school. It’s not a coincidence that a lot of teams are now wishing they had taken Heyward and Trout instead of letting them fall to the later portions of the first round.
Evan Gattis has primarily drawn attention through three avenues. First, his story is interesting. Sports writers like narratives. They like writing about how Gattis wandered the great southwest with spiritual advisers as he worked odd jobs. Secondly, Gattis is a large dude. Especially when he’s standing next to a bunch of gangly 19 year olds in A ball, the disparity can be stunning. Finally, he’s been incredibly productive in the minor leagues. He’s put up wRC+’s of 108 (rookie ball), 165 (low A), 240 (high A) and 139 (AA). The problem is that NONE of these tell us all that much.
The fact that Gattis taking several years off of baseball is often cited as a positive for his career arc is stupefying to me. I don’t fully comprehend how, from a pure baseball standpoint, those years can be viewed as anything other than years of lost development. Those were years when he wasn’t refining his defensive skills, when he wasn’t learning to pick up on the difference between a fastball and a slider earlier in the pitch’s flight, when he wasn’t learning how to take more efficient routes to fly balls. They’re years of development he can never get back. However, when you bring up his age, you’re inevitably greeted with some form of “well, but he took all that time off, so his age doesn’t matter.”
The fact that Gattis is such a physically developed man, especially in comparison to his teammates and competition in low A, high A and AA also isn’t a plus. What we’re doing is seeing his physical domination of those less physically developed players, and confusing it with him being a player with better upside. Essentially, Evan Gattis is currently as physically good at baseball as he will ever be, so putting up huge numbers in the lower and mid minors doesn’t tell us much of anything, other than what we already knew, which is that he’s more physically developed than his competition.
I’d love to see Evan Gattis succeed. I’d love nothing more than for him to defy all odds and become a productive major leaguer. However, I also have to understand that Gattis is already at his peak, and he’s never even seen a major league pitcher yet. He could very well be a bench player this year, but unlike other, younger players, he will most likely never get any better. Next year he will be 27 years old, and will already be in the physical decline portion of his career. It’s more likely than not that he will be out of baseball by the age of 30. I hope he proves me wrong, but I also understand that it’s just blind hope at an extreme long shot, because the most likely reality is simply what the number tells us, that he’s too old to end up being a productive major leaguer for very long. If being old for your level often fools even major league scouts, who should absolutely know better, we certainly have to be extremely careful that it doesn’t fool us.
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