Freeman’s Shrinkage

March 5, 2013 at 10:00 am by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves

I have an unhealthy fascination with Freddie Freeman. I’m not entirely sure why, but I think it has to do with his days as a prospect. While Jason Heyward was heralded from every mountain, Freeman wasn’t quite a Golden Boy. Don’t misunderstand me. He was still heralded. But there was this skepticism that surrounded him – he can hit but how much, he’s got some power but how much, and will all of that make him an average first baseman or can he be a star. It’s not exactly an insult to be called a league-average first baseman, but we, of course, hope for a star. This unhealthy obsession led to possibly unwarranted optimism, and that led to making an ill-advised bet with a friend over whether Freeman would hit 40+ HR in a season. Dan Szymborski made me a feel a little bit better about that bet by saying it was more likely than not that Freeman would hit 40+ bombs in a season, and I think there’s reason for the optimism.

During Freeman’s first two seasons, he’s been what many said he’d be – league-average. Over the past two seasons, the average first baseman has hit .260/.335/.440 with a wOBA of .335 and wRC+ of 110. Freeman’s career numbers? .269/.340/.449 with a .343 wOBA and a wRC+ of 115. Freeman’s been a bit better than the league-average first sacker, but for all intents and purposes, Freeman has been average. Looking at the rest of the package, Freeman’s defense hasn’t really been lauded (mainly due to his range), but even if we wanted to give him some credit on defense, his total lack of speed and baserunning value would counteract that. He’s been average. There is no shame in that – in being a 22, 23-year old manchild that is an average player at the major-league level. But seeing as he is such a young player, can he improve, and has he shown an ability to improve?

Here are Freeman’s stats over his first two full seasons.

If you look strictly at Freeman’s slash line, he hasn’t changed, but a more detailed look reveals more. The first step is looking at Freeman’s BABiP. It dropped a full 40 points from 2011 to 2012, and considering his LD rates are higher than the average first baseman who has a .295 BABiP, I’d bet his talent BABiP is probably somewhere at least in the middle of those numbers, meaning his slash line coulda/shoulda/woulda been better.

The next step is looking at some peripheral numbers. You’ll notice that Freeman’s K and BB rates are going in right direction. His strikeout rate went down 10% and his walk rate went up 25%, and he swung at fewer pitches out of the zone while swinging at more in the zone, indicating his plate discipline got better. Looking at the heat maps (you didn’t think you would get away with not having heat maps, did you?) …

Freeman’s strike zone discipline has improved. The map has shrunk with the exception of pitches below the zone. On fastballs …

His zone has also shrunk. On off-speed pitches …

The zone has also shrunk, though he’s still susceptible to pitches below the zone. As one might expect from a young player, Freeman’s plate discipline has improved. What about doing damage in the zone?

Which of the two years more closely resemble each other? 2012, of course. Freeman seemed to realize, like many left-handers, that his sweet spot is low-and-in, and he focused on swinging at pitches in that area, doing damage in that area while raising his ISO 30 points and almost 20%. You can’t argue with the effectiveness.

The question now is what happens next. Freeman undoubtedly made strides this past season, but can he keep it up? Can he even improve more? The projection systems seem to think so. All of them see a 10 point jump in wOBA due to a BABiP rebound and an ever-so-slight increase in ISO. Freeman will be 23 for most of next season, and as a young player with established success in the majors, we should expect him to continue to improve. But players’ productions don’t go as smoothly as aging curves suggest. By the time all is said and done, I expect Freeman to end up an above-average first baseman, but whether or not that will happen in 2013 is still to be determined …