Friday Links & NFL Picks
October 9, 2009 at 6:12 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Links, NFL Picks, Transactions
With the Braves’ season done, the hot-stove season has begun. Some links and insights for Friday.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says the Braves may make a run at Matt Holliday. Personally, I think Matt Holliday is a perfect fit for the Braves. He plays good defense and fixes the biggest systematic weakness of the team–the inability to hit for power from the right side. Of course, as a Scott Boras client eligible for Free Agency for the first time, he won’t come cheap. JC Bradbury of Sabernomics speculates he’ll get 4 years, $68 million and Jorge Says No! speculates he’ll get 7 years, $110 million.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Braves will aggressively pursue a right-handed power bat and suggest Nelson Cruz may be a good fit. Cruz is arbitration eligible in 2011 and a free agent after 2014 and the Rangers would presumably want young pitching in return. A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote about Nelson Cruz’s contact rates. The comments section of that article is also rather insightful.
- I’ll make another suggestion with regards to a trade for a right-handed power bat. Carlos Quentin for Nate McLouth. The Braves need a right-handed bat, the White Sox need a left-handed bat. They have similar contract situations, McLouth is owed $12.25 million over the next two years with a $9.4 million net option for 2012. Quentin is arbitration-eligible for the next three years. While McLouth represents financial certainty, Quentin perhaps has the more favorable contract. Neither player lived up to expectations in 2009. McLouth hit .257/.354/.419 with 11 HR in 396 PA’s and played below-average defense in CF for the Braves. Quentin hit .236/.323/.456 with 21 HR in 399 PA’s and played fairly bad defense in LF for the White Sox. McLouth is the superior defender, but Quentin is the superior bat. Quentin’s low average can be attributed to BABIP and injuries, as his contact rates were very good (as well as his walk rates) and his LD% was up from 2008, a year he hit .288/.394/.571 with 36 HR. Quentin is rather injury-prone, but McLouth had his share of injuries in 2009. This is just a purely hypothetical scenario. If it were to happen, I imagine Church would play CF until Schafer is ready and the outfield would eventually consist of, left to right, Quentin, Schafer, Heyward; with Diaz and Church (if he isn’t moved) on the bench. I would have no reservations about starting Church in center for a few months. As Mac Thomason of Braves Journal notes, Church is probably a better Center Fielder than McLouth.
- In the above article David O’Brien also mentions the Braves will likely look to add a reliever or two this off-season to off-set the departure of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Of course, the Braves kicked the tires on acquiring a reliever in July but weren’t able to find a match. My take: adding a “proven closer” is a rather inefficient way to go about shoring up the bullpen. On the other hand, Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves may pursue Free Agent Billy Wagner this off-season. If the price is right, he could be a good fit, but he’ll probably also cost the Braves their 1st round draft pick.
- Speaking of which, the 2010 draft order is out and the Braves will pick 19th (ESPN Insider Subscription Required), provided they don’t sign a Type A Free Agent who was offered arbitration by his previous club.
- Speaking of which, the final Elias Rankings are out. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez project as Type A’s while Garret Anderson and Adam LaRoche project as Type B’s. Tim Hudson missed the cut for Type B status.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com suggests that Frank Wren will try to trade Derek Lowe this winter. My take: if you can trade him, do it, but don’t eat any salary in the process. Lowe will likely be worth his contract, so it’s not necessarily a salary dump from either perspective. Well, it would be, but it’s not like you’re moving a particularly bad contract. Moving a big, valuable contract for financial flexibility is different than moving a big, bad contract.
- David O’Brien writes about which Braves may not return to the team in 2010. I’m not convinced he’s correct about Boone Logan being arbitration eligible in 2010. According to my calculations, he’ll have ~2.6 years of service time which probably makes him a month or two short of Super-2 status. There is a new poll regarding the arbitration-eligible players.
- If you’ve been watching the postseason, you’ve probably noticed that Chip Caray and Joe Simpson are part of the TBS Broadcast team. In my opinion, Joe Simpson has done an outstanding job serving as the Color Analyst for the Phillies-Rockies series. However, Chip Caray has been nothing short of absolutely horehounds. It all started when he botched an extremely important call in the play-in game (game 163) between the Twins and Tigers. He nearly did the exact same thing the following night covering the Yankees-Twins series. As Matt Casey of NBCsports.com notes, ripping on Chip Caray has become an enjoyable October tradition. He’s also been very fond of using the phrase “fisted” to describe a batted ball hit off the handle of the bat, prompting the emergence of this hilarious Twitter page.
- Speaking of announcing, I’m sure most of you know, but Boog won’t be returning to Fox Sports South to call the Braves games next season. He’s accepted a position as the full-time play-by-play announcer for ESPN Radio games. Personally, I really like Boog and I’ll miss having him call the games on a daily basis. That said, this is great news for him as it represents a substantial promotion.
- I can’t wait to watch Nick Blackburn pitch today. He pitched the 1-game playoff last year between the White Sox and Twins, one of the best games I’ve ever seen.
NFL Picks
Browns 3 at Bills 24
Steelers 21 at Lions 20
Cowboys 38 at Chiefs 10
Vikings 44 at Rams 6
Raiders 3 at Giants 41
Buccaneers 3 at Eagles 31
Redskins 21 at Panthers 24
Bengals 21 at Ravens 24
Falcons 31 at 49ers 30
Jaguars 10 at Seahawks 11
Texans 35 at Cardinals 17
Patriots 20 at Broncos 21
Colts 28 at Titans 17
Jets 31 at Dolphins 20
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Love the site and the analysis, man. Any idea about who replaces Boog? Gonna miss that big ginger.
Thanks, athens_brave.
I’m going to miss Boog as well. I think he’s the best play-by-play announcer in the game. The Braves and Fox Sports South haven’t announced anything with regards to Boog’s replacement and I don’t know enough to speculate as to who may replace him. I’ll keep the site updated as I hear more about who may replace him.
I really like Quentin for McLouth. That’s the best kind of trade. I hope Wren reads this site.
Heh, I doubt Wren reads this site. But he’s probably got something up his sleeve even better.
Quentin for McLouth won’t work for either teams. It creates more problems than it solves…
Chip Caray expects Escobar to get a raise, which is one more reason why Wren should trade Vasquez
Jurrjens4NLCY,
Why? and….. What?
Lmao.
First off, Chicago never makes that trade. They significantly lose offense, (which they seem to think is their biggest problem, whatever!). If the Braves made that trade they lose a CF with no legitimate replacement in mind. Church won’t come back, and Infante is awful in any outfield position. Schafer is coming off surgery, and, Imo, needs to start the season in AAA (with Heyward). They also lose a leadoff hitter, although there are legit candidates for that. For the trade to work for the Braves, they’d need to sign a CF, which gets too expensive. I imagine they have around 13M to get a slugging 1B, LF, RF, and a reliever.
Also, Chip Caray thinks Escobar is getting a raise. If so, the Braves have even less money to spend. They have to trade Vasquez for a need (i. e. 1B, LF, RF, reliever). I don’t want to see Vasquez leave, but some things just have to be done.
I’d love to see KK, Diaz, Johnson, Church, and Vasquez go, and Cuddyer and Soria come via trade. Of course that would mean parting with prospects, which I’m fine with… Royals will want good prospects in the high A range. Know of any good ones?
Anyways, that should eave enough money to get Hudson, Hinske, LaRoche, and Calero.
Thus bolstering our 2010 lineup, “WRENdering” us 2010 World Series Champions!
Doesn’t that sound grand?
Chip Caray is a fool. Escobar is pre-arb in 2010. If he gets a raise it won’t be a significant one.
I was at the game last night- blackburn was lights out. I thought they would get to him after the first time through the order…but no…they didn’t.
anyway–it was the best baseball game ive ever been to. every range of emotion was covered.
hmm my comment didnt go through. i’ll try again.
about Blackburn. he was just about as good as any twin fan could have hoped for. I thought that after the yanks had gone through the order for the second time they would get his number but obviously they didn’t.
i was at the game and it was the best baseball game i’ve ever been to -
I still think Atlanta and Chicago would probably both like to get that type of deal done. Chicago is looking for a LH bat to the point that they’ll move a RH bat to get one. Their best offensive player last year was Jim Thome. He hit .249/.372/.493 with 23 HR and was subsequently dealt in August. He was actually 3rd on the team in HR, behind Jermaine Dye (27), a RH-bat that most likely won’t return, and the right-handed Paul Konerko (28), whose contract expires after next year (2010). Though other than Jim Thome–who will not return to the team in 2010, there was not a legitimate left-handed bat on the team. A.J. Pierzenski, but he’s A.J. Pierzenski. And he only hit .300/.311/.425 with 13 HR. Chris Getz, playing 2B and making 415 PA’s (they could use a 2B, perhaps the Braves could include Kelly/Prado/Infante and get something else useful in return. A bullpen arm, maybe?), posted a .670 OPS with 2 HR. Though he did steal 25 bases and was caught only twice, it’s hard to have much of an impact when you’re batting average is .261, your OBP is .324, and you hit only 2 HR (.347 SLG%). The other lefties they had in 2009 include Scott Podsednik, who, in an extremely hit-lucky season (.341 BABIP), hit .304/.353/.412 with 7 HR (exactly one fifth of his career total); DeWayne Wise, who had a .628 OPS and 2 HR in 153 PA’s before basically being released; Mark Kotsay, who looks like he probably should’ve retired in 2006; and Jerry Owens, who has a career minor league OPS of .732. Point is, the White Sox need a LH-bat. Bad.
Also, given their current financial situation, they’re not in a position to go out and be aggressive on the Free Agent market this Winter. Not that the Free Agent market this winter is particularly good with regards to left-handed bats–Adam LaRoche, Johnny Damon, Russell Branyan, Rick Ankiel, and Bobby Abreu are your best options–but they don’t have the financial flexibility to acquire one of those guys, anyway. Also, they seem fairly married to their veterans. After all, four of them were around in 2005 when they (albeit improbably) won a World Series (Podsednik, Konerko, Pierzenski, and Buehrle), and they just acquired a few new toys they’re in love with (Peavy and Rios). The White Sox think they can win with this group, especially with all the young talent currently emerging (Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, John Danks, Tyler Flowers and Gavin Floyd). So moving a veteran to provide financial flexibility isn’t really an option for them, I wouldn’t think.
But, with their veteran core departing soon, 2010 may be their last chance to win with this group. And they’ve got the pitching to do it (Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Garcia is a pretty damn good rotation). To have a realistic shot of competing in the AL Central they need to do two things. First of all, they need to add a left-handed bat or two. The whole point about financial flexibility is this: they’re not going to be able to acquire a good left-handed bat unless they make a trade like the one I mentioned, a premium piece they can part with for a premium piece they need. Otherwise, they’ll be sifting through the scrap heap hoping they find the next David Ortiz or Marco Scutaro (he bats right-handed, but that’s not the point). Secondly, they need to minimize their question marks offensively. Quentin, while he has tremendous upside, represents a question mark. He’s had only one consistently good season, 2008, and that one ended a month early because he broke a bat over his wrist (or his wrist over a bat, or maybe they both broke). Additionally, he’s notoriously injury-prone. McLouth, while he doesn’t possess the upside Quentin does, is less of a question mark. The floor is rather high for McLouth. He doesn’t get injured a lot, takes his walks, and steals some bases. So, even in the bad times (when he’s not hitting or not hitting for power), he’s going to be a somewhat productive player. Additionally, he’s a left-handed bat. And we know how badly they need left-handed bats. I think–given they don’t have a lot of other options and want to win now–that McLouth’s left-handed-ness and consistency, for lack of a better word, surpasses Quentin’s upside for the White Sox.
And then there’s the Braves. Almost as bad as the White Sox need a LH bat, the Braves need a RH power bat. Quentin is certainly that. Bill James once said that teams have something they do well even in their losses. For example, the 2009 Atlanta Braves largely get strong performances from their starting staffs, even in losses. The Boston Red Sox get on base at a fairly good rate even in their losses, the Yankees hit even in their losses, the Phillies hit home runs in their losses, etc.. I’m of the belief that players are the same way. That is–even when they’re struggling, they’re still good at the thing they do best. Carlos Quentin is good at hitting home runs even if he’s struggling in every other facet of his game. For example, in 2009 Quentin hit .238/.323/.456 in a hitters’ park. A very bad batting average, a fairly modest on-base percentage, and a rather pedestrian SLG%. Still, he managed to hit a HR in 5.3% of his PA’s, nearly twice the league average (2.7%). Even when he struggled, he was able to hit HR’s. So, while he represents a question mark, the Braves know they’re at least getting a prolific Home Run hitter from the right side–their biggest need. A sort of Dave Kingman floor, if you will. And while Dave Kingman certainly isn’t your first choice to supply your team’s right-handed power–given his other limitations, this team needs a right-handed home run hitter to the point that adding a Dave Kingman would have a disproportionate effect and drastically improve the lifeless offense. So Carlos Quentin is a player that the Braves can afford to take a chance on. If he works out, excellent. If not, they’re probably still going to be OK and significantly improved.
With other concerns, like keeping the starting staff together, acquiring a 1B or re-signing LaRoche (something I think they should do if they acquire a RH-hitting OF), and shoring up the back end of the bullpen, the Braves could certainly stand to make a salary-neutral or salary-beneficial move for a cheap, young player. In fact, they’ll probably have to if they want to acquire premium pieces. Otherwise you either have to a) pick your poison and do without the rest or b) sift through the scrap heap. I doubt Wren will want to take many chances off of the scrap heap, given their low success rates, Bobby Cox’s impending retirement, and the fact that this team is built to win now. So this is the type of move both sides not only can make, but need to make.
As far as losing McLouth, yeah, the Braves lose their CF’er and lead-off man. Their center fielder who put up a -1.5 UZR/150 and their lead-off hitter who hit .257/.354/.410 with 11 HR and stole 12 bases at a 66.67% success rate (below the break-even point) in 396 PA’s. I’m not talking about trading a Grady Sizemore or a Curtis Granderson or a Torri Hunter or a Rickey Henderson. Don’t get me wrong, McLouth is a nice complementary piece, but get fooled into thinking he’s a super-star, he ain’t. Additionally, they’ve got a perfectly capable replacement–Ryan Church–who will do just fine until their real CF, the CF they’re planning on building with, Jordan Schafer, is ready for the bigs. The way I see it, having McLouth around is potentially going to do more harm than good when Schafer’s ready. McLouth is the kind of player who is too valuable to sit but who won’t really have a position if he can’t play Center. He wasn’t going to be playing CF and hitting leadoff for much longer, anyway, and if you can move him now to acquire a right-handed power bat, something you desperately need to compete in 2010, I think you do it.
For me, McLouth’s uncertainty is outweighed by Quentin’s right-handed-ness, ability to hit home runs, and upside. And I think a trade that involves McLouth for Quentin makes a lot of sense for the Braves and White Sox.
Mike,
For some reason, you’re comments were getting lost in the spam filter. It should be fixed now.
That’s awesome you were at the game. It’s a shame I have to watch possibly my two favorite AL teams play, but that was a hell of a game. How nuts was the place when A-Rod hit the homer?
I’m going to turn that previous comment into a blog entry because I’m too lazy to write anything else noteworthy today and I feel like I put enough thought into that it’s entry-worthy.
it was about as crazy and loud as you would imagine. i’ve always wanted to be at a Yankee game for one of those classic “moments” and this game had two. the Alex game tying homer and then the Tex walkoff. also of course the dispiriting letdowns of runners at the corners and one out and not getting it done in the 10th and then the unbelievable low/high of bases loaded nobody out top 11.
as good as it gets… anyway i have some great shots which i’ll put on my site when i get back to alabama tomorrow.