The Best and Worst Signings of 2009
October 11, 2009 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Economic Analysis, Front Office, Transaction Analysis, Transactions
Looking back at the free agent market in 2009, there were plenty of busts and plenty of goldmines. The purpose of this research was to find out which signings were the best and worse. For brevity’s sake, I limited this study to free agents who signed a major league deal worth at least $1,000,000. The math I used was simple. I took the 89 players, added their collective average salaries (over the course of the deal), and divided it by their collective WAR (Wins Above Replacement). This gave me the average amount clubs paid per WAR in 2009. That figure $4,518,279–nearly identical to the $4.5 million clubs paid in 2008. I then multiplied each player’s WAR by $4,518,279 and subtracted their salaries to see which player netted his team the most on-field production beyond his salary. The results may surprise you:
| Player | 2010 Salary | WAR | Team | WAR$-Salary |
| Bobby Abreu | $5,000,000 | 2.6 | LAA | $6,975,811 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | $4,000,000 | 0.8 | SF | -$315,135 |
| Garret Anderson | $2,500,000 | -0.9 | ATL | -$6,645,473 |
| Brad Ausmus | $1,000,000 | 0.6 | LAD | $1,763,649 |
| Luis Ayala | $1,300,000 | 0.0 | MIN | -$1,300,000 |
| John Bale | $1,200,000 | 0.1 | KC | -$739,392 |
| Joe Beimel | $2,000,000 | 0.3 | WSH | -$618,176 |
| Casey Blake | $5,833,333 | 4.3 | LAD | $13,972,816 |
| Willie Bloomquist | $3,100,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$3,100,000 |
| Milton Bradley | $10,000,000 | 1.1 | CHC | -$4,933,311 |
| Russell Branyan | $1,400,000 | 2.8 | SEA | $11,497,028 |
| Doug Brocail | $2,750,000 | -0.5 | HOU | -$5,053,041 |
| A.J. Burnett | $16,500,000 | 3.1 | NYY | -$2,221,148 |
| Pat Burrell | $8,000,000 | -0.6 | TBR | -$10,763,649 |
| Daniel Cabrera | $2,600,000 | -0.3 | WSH | -$3,981,824 |
| Orlando Cabrera | $4,000,000 | 0.7 | OAK | -$775,743 |
| Bartolo Colon | $1,000,000 | 0.2 | CHW | -$78,784 |
| Alex Cora | $2,000,000 | 0.0 | NYM | -$2,000,000 |
| Craig Counsell | $1,000,000 | 2.8 | MIL | $11,897,028 |
| Joe Crede | $2,500,000 | 1.8 | MIN | $5,790,946 |
| Juan Cruz | $6,000,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$6,000,000 |
| Ryan Dempster | $13,000,000 | 3.6 | CHC | $3,581,893 |
| Adam Dunn | $10,000,000 | 1.1 | WSH | -$4,933,311 |
| Alan Embree | $2,250,000 | -0.1 | COL | -$2,710,608 |
| Adam Everett | $1,000,000 | 0.9 | DET | $3,145,473 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | $4,625,000 | 0.7 | KC | -$1,400,743 |
| Brian Fuentes | $8,750,000 | 0.4 | LAA | -$6,907,567 |
| Rafael Furcal | $10,000,000 | 3.3 | LAD | $5,200,068 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | $1,000,000 | -0.4 | OAK | -$2,842,433 |
| Jon Garland | $7,250,000 | 2.4 | ARI | $3,804,595 |
| Jason Giambi | $5,250,000 | -0.3 | OAK | -$6,631,824 |
| Tom Glavine | $1,000,000 | 0.0 | ATL | -$1,000,000 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | $2,000,000 | 0.2 | SEA | -$1,078,784 |
| Jerry Hariston Jr. | $2,000,000 | 1.0 | CIN | $2,606,081 |
| Mike Hampton | $2,000,000 | 0.9 | HOU | $2,145,473 |
| Mark Hendrickson | $1,500,000 | 0.5 | BAL | $803,041 |
| Eric Hinske | $1,500,000 | 0.8 | PIT | $2,184,865 |
| Trevor Hoffman | $6,000,000 | 1.5 | MIL | $909,122 |
| Bob Howry | $2,750,000 | 0.4 | SF | -$907,567 |
| Orlando Hudson | $3,800,000 | 2.9 | LAD | $9,557,636 |
| Raul Ibanez | $10,500,000 | 4.1 | PHI | $8,384,933 |
| Cesar Izturis | $2,500,000 | 1.3 | BAL | $3,487,906 |
| Randy Johnson | $8,000,000 | 0.4 | SF | -$6,157,567 |
| Gabe Kapler | $1,000,000 | 1.2 | TBR | $4,527,298 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | $7,666,667 | 1.7 | ATL | $163,672 |
| Mark Kotsay | $1,500,000 | -0.3 | BOS | -$2,881,824 |
| Mike Lincoln | $2,000,000 | -1.0 | CIN | -$6,606,081 |
| Braden Looper | $5,500,000 | -0.9 | MIL | -$9,645,473 |
| Felipe Lopez | $3,500,000 | 4.4 | ARI | $16,766,758 |
| Mark Loretta | $1,250,000 | -0.2 | LAD | -$2,171,216 |
| Derek Lowe | $15,000,000 | 2.7 | ATL | -$2,563,580 |
| Brandon Lyon | $4,250,000 | 0.7 | DET | -$1,025,743 |
| Damaso Marte | $4,000,000 | -0.1 | NYY | -$4,460,608 |
| Aaron Miles | $2,450,000 | -1.3 | CHC | -$8,437,906 |
| Guillermo Mota | $2,350,000 | -0.1 | LAD | -$2,810,608 |
| Jamie Moyer | $6,500,000 | 0.6 | PHI | -$3,736,351 |
| Joe Nelson | $1,300,000 | -0.4 | TBR | -$3,142,433 |
| Darren Oliver | $3,655,000 | 1.5 | LAA | $3,254,122 |
| Chan Ho Park | $2,500,000 | 1.6 | PHI | $4,869,730 |
| Carl Pavano | $1,500,000 | 3.7 | CLE | $15,542,501 |
| Brad Penny | $5,000,000 | 2.5 | BOS | $6,515,203 |
| Oliver Perez | $12,000,000 | -0.8 | NYM | -$15,684,865 |
| Andy Pettitte | $5,500,000 | 3.3 | NYY | $9,700,068 |
| Nick Punto | $4,250,000 | 1.2 | MIN | $1,277,298 |
| Horacio Ramirez | $1,800,000 | 0.0 | KC | -$1,800,000 |
| Manny Ramirez | $22,500,000 | 2.6 | LAD | -$10,524,189 |
| Tim Redding | $2,250,000 | 0.1 | NYM | -$1,789,392 |
| Edgar Renteria | $9,250,000 | 0.3 | SF | -$7,868,176 |
| Dennys Reyes | $1,500,000 | 0.2 | STL | -$578,784 |
| Arthur Rhodes | $2,000,000 | 1.0 | CIN | $2,606,081 |
| Juan Rivera | $4,250,000 | 3.5 | LAA | $11,871,285 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | $12,333,333 | 0.3 | NYM | -$10,951,509 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | $1,500,000 | 0.8 | HOU | $2,184,865 |
| David Ross | $1,500,000 | 1.7 | ATL | $6,330,338 |
| CC Sabathia | $23,000,000 | 6.0 | NYY | $4,636,488 |
| Takashi Saito | $1,500,000 | 0.4 | BOS | $342,433 |
| Brian Shouse | $1,550,000 | -0.1 | TBR | -$2,010,608 |
| John Smoltz | $5,500,000 | 1.5 | BOS | $1,409,122 |
| Russ Springer | $3,300,000 | 0.4 | OAK | -$1,457,567 |
| Willy Taveras | $3,125,000 | -0.3 | CIN | -$4,506,824 |
| Mark Teixeira | $22,500,000 | 5.2 | NYY | $1,451,623 |
| Koji Uehara | $5,000,000 | 1.6 | BAL | $2,369,730 |
| Jason Varitek | $5,000,000 | 1.3 | BOS | $987,906 |
| Ramon Vazquez | $2,000,000 | 0.0 | PIT | -$2,000,000 |
| David Weathers | $3,900,000 | -0.8 | CIN | -$7,584,865 |
| Ty Wigginton | $3,000,000 | -0.3 | BAL | -$4,381,824 |
| Randy Wolf | $5,000,000 | 3.0 | LAD | $8,818,244 |
| Kerry Wood | $10,250,000 | 0.4 | CLE | -$8,407,567 |
| Gregg Zaun | $1,500,000 | 1.8 | BAL | $6,790,946 |
The five best signs of 2009 are as follows:
Number Five – Juan Rivera. 3 years, $12,750,000. 3.5 WAR.
Rivera hit .287/.332/.478 (.348 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 12.8. It was, by far, Rivera’s most valuable season.
Number Four – Craig Counsell. 1 year, $1,000,000. 2.8 WAR.
Counsell hit .285/.357/.408 (.336 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 6.4. It was Counsell’s most valuable season since he posted a WAR of 3.4 in 2005.
Number Three – Casey Blake. 3 years, $17,000,000. 4.3 WAR.
Blake hit .280/.363/.468 (.354 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 8.4. His next most valuable season came in 2004 (3.3 WAR), making it by far Blake’s most productive season.
Number Two – Carl Pavano. 1 year, $1,500,000. 3.7 WAR.
Pavano pitched 199 and 1/3 innings with the Twins and Indians, posting a 3.77 K/BB ratio and 5.10 ERA. The only season in which Pavano posted a higher WAR was 2004, the year he posted a 4.4 WAR which prompted the Yankees to sign him to a nearly $40 million contract that they’ll forever regret.
Number One – Felipe Lopez. 1 year, $3,500,000. 4.6 WAR.
Lopez hit .310/.383/.427 (.356 wOBA) and posted a UZR of 7.6. He was also worth 4.6 WAR in 2005.
And the five worst signs of 2009:
Number Five – Braden Looper. 1 year, $5,500,000. -0.9 WAR.
Looper pitched 194 and 2/3 innings, despite leading the league in ER allowed (113) and HR allowed (39).
Number Four – Pat Burrell. 2 years, $16,000,000. -0.6 WAR.
Burrell hit just .221/.315/.367 (.304 wOBA) in 476 PA’s, serving almost exclusively as the DH.
Number Three – Manny Ramirez. 2 years, $45,000,000. 2.6 WAR.
The suspension undoubtedly hurt Manny’s productivity, as he notched only 431 PA’s. Despite hitting .290/.418/.531 (.396 wOBA), he have a lot back in the field (-9.2 UZR) and was overall worth just 2.6 WAR.
Number Two – Francisco Rodriguez. 3 years, $37,000,000. 0.3 WAR.
Francisco Rodriguez pitched 68 innings with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.309 WHIP, and a 73-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not exactly “closer” stats.
Number One – Oliver Perez. 3 years, $36,000,000. -0.8 WAR.
Oliver Perez only pitched 66 painful innings, posting a 6.82 ERA, a 1.924 WHIP, and a 62-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s totally amazing to me that Omar Minaya still has his job.
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Case Study on Perception and Reality.
I just finished my top-40 prospects list. It’s composed of 23 players from last year’s list (3 of last year’s top-40 made their MLB debut, 5 are out of the organization, and 9 were dropped from the rankings), 9 of the Braves’ 2009 draftees, and 8 newcomers whom I either missed in 2009 due to oversight or whom improved their stock in 2009 enough to make the list. I’ve got a post scheduled for tomorrow morning–a report of what all the Braves’ 2009 draftees did in the minors (stats only), but I’m going to go ahead and start writing up the prospects as well. Expect a post or two a day covering 10 of the top 40 a time (starting with 31-40). I’ll then move all of the 2009 list to a sub-page and the 2010 list will appear under “Top Prospects”. By the way, here’s the final top-10:
1. Jason Heyward
2. Julio Teheran
3. Freddie Freeman
4. Christian Betancourt
5. Craig Kimbrel
6. Randall Delgado
7. Zeke Spruill
8. J.J. Hoover
9. Adam Milligan
10. Cole Rohrbough
[...] Mark Teixeira , $22500000, 5.2, NYY, $1451623. Koji Uehara, $5000000, 1.6, BAL, $2369730. Jason Varitek, $5000000, 1.3, BOS, $987906. Ramon Vazquez, $2000000, 0.0, PIT, -$2000000. David Weathers, $3900000, -0.8, CIN, -$7584865 …More [...]