The Dream Off-Season
October 21, 2009 at 2:00 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Transactions
Everyone has their dream off-season. After a month or so of speculating and playing around with salaries, I have come up with mine. It’s relatively simple in theory. It involves one trade, and bringing in only 3 players from outside the organization. Let me state that the operative word here is “dream” and this scenario is rather unlikely to happen. Nonetheless, here’s what I’m dreaming about.
First, the Braves sign both Javier Vazquez and Tim Hudson to 3 year, $30 million contracts, replacing their current deals. Saves ~$3.5 million in payroll. Second, the Braves trade Derek Lowe for nothing useful in 2010. If it’s useful beyond 2010, even better, but it doesn’t have to be. Strictly a salary-minded move. Third, the Braves tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, Kelly Johnson, Matt Diaz, Ryan Church, and Peter Moylan. I estimate Moylan will make $1.5 million, Johnson and Church will make $3.75 million, and Diaz will make $3 million. Fourth, the Braves sign two of the buy-low candidates I mentioned last week (we’ll say Kiko Calero and Chan Ho Park) to 2-year deals worth $2.5 million annually. Fifth, the Braves retain Adam LaRoche on a 2-year, $15.5 million deal ($7.25 annually) with an $8 million club option for 2012 with a $500,000 buyout. Guarantees him $16 million over 2 years with a possibility of $24 million over three. Finally, the Braves sign Matt Holliday to a 5 year, $87.5 million contract ($17.5 annually) with a $20 million club option for 2015 with a $2.5 million buyout. Guarantees him $90 million over 5 years with a possibility of $110 million over 6. Here’s what the roster with salaries looks like:
| Pos: | Name: | 2010 Salary |
| SP - | Javier Vazquez | $10,000,000 |
| SP - | Tim Hudson | $10,000,000 |
| SP - | Kenshin Kawakami | $7,333,333 |
| SP - | Jair Jurrjens | $400,000 |
| SP - | Tommy Hanson | $400,000 |
| RP - | Kiko Calero | $2,500,000 |
| RP - | Chan Ho Park | $2,500,000 |
| RP - | Peter Moylan | $1,500,000 |
| RP - | Eric O’Flaherty | $400,000 |
| RP - | Kris Medlen | $400,000 |
| RP - | Boone Logan | $400,000 |
| RP - | Craig Kimbrel | $400,000 |
| C - | Brian McCann | $5,666,666 |
| 1B - | Adam LaRoche | $7,250,000 |
| 2B - | Martin Prado | $400,000 |
| SS - | Yunel Escobar | $400,000 |
| 3B - | Chipper Jones | $13,000,000 |
| LF - | Matt Holliday | $17,500,000 |
| CF - | Nate McLouth | $5,000,000 |
| RF - | Matt Diaz | $3,000,000 |
| BC - | David Ross | $1,600,000 |
| UT - | Omar Infante | $1,850,000 |
| UT - | Kelly Johnson | $3,750,000 |
| OF - | Ryan Church | $3,750,000 |
| OF - | Jason Heyward | $400,000 |
| Total | $99,799,999 |
The Braves have the luxury of calling up Heyward and Schafer whenever they feel like they’re ready.
That team makes me drool.
Loading ...
Its a good plan.
Kawakami’s contract this year and next actually drops by 1 million. 3 years, 7.667/6.667/6.667, according to Cots.
McLouth’s goes to 4.5, rather than 5, so there’s 1.5 mil more in savings there. I’d like to think that KJ and Church can each be had for less than 1 million raise apiece, but just as easily not.
This is a team built to win for at least two years, really, since we’d be locked in with that rotation for at least the next two years, and I think every position player accept the Diaz/Church tandem for 2 years or more.
Problem is that I don’t think we can move Lowe easily. His price tag isn’t the Angels’ style. Dodgers are going to be facing that nasty ownership fight as the owner and team president dissolve their marriage, Mets are a possibility, wouldn’t think Cashman would take that on, Red Sox or Mariners maybe. Maybe if we eat some money on the backend of the contract.
Ideal would be if we could send him back to the Dodgers for one of their good young bullpen arms.
Good thoughts, and thank you for correcting the salaries. I misinterpreted the signing bonuses.
Nice work, thanks.
I don’t see any way Javy signs for 3/$30, especially given his (non-)injury history and that he’s a year younger than Hudson. When his current contract expires next year, it will be his last chance at a big free agent payday.
I agree with Nevin that it will be very hard to give Lowe away without paying at least a portion of his salary.
Looking at this really does drive home that there’s not much money for a LF/1B unless we move 1 of Lowe/Vazquez/Kawakami or don’t resign Hudson. And I don’t think I’d want to spend big money on OF, given I still hope that Schafer and Heyward (who won’t break camp with the big club, for the same reasons Hanson didn’t last year) can take 2 OF spots for several years in the future. So I’d look for a short term fix (otoh, maybe they’ll go all out to win one in Bobby’s last year).
So if we don’t get a big name (Bay, Holliday, Vlad, Abreu, Dye, Damon), I wonder if Andruw is a possibility; give him an incentive-laden contract with some weight clauses in it. I wonder how much Mike Cameron would cost; that would upgrade our defense at 2 positions. Do we think Randy Winn is as bad as he played last year? He used to be on my wish list. Could we get enough out of Rocco Baldelli to fill a position with him and Schafer/Heyward/whichever of Church/Diaz isn’t in RF? If Marlon Byrd could come cheap, I wouldn’t mind him. Maybe Brian Giles won’t find a home, but he may be done.
Not a lot of good options there, maybe we should go all out after Holliday and win 1 for Bobby.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
on further reflection, I now hope the Braves 2010 Opening Day starter in LF is:
Milton Bradley.
i know this is a while ago, but are you really serious about milton bradley? what about him could you possibly like, about a guy who says, “i just pray the game doesn’t go extra innings, so i can go home, and get away” ended up paraphrasing there.
Production > Intangibles. Bradley had a .400 OBP. I see both arguments. I lean towards “no Bradley”, but I wouldn’t be completely opposed to the idea. Could make a GM look very smart next year.