Should the Braves Pursue Matt Capps
November 5, 2009 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Player Analysis, Transactions
Matt Capps has been mentioned as a possible trade target for the Braves this off-season. With the potential (and likely) departure of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, the Braves presumably have a void at the back end of their bullpen. Capps, a Georgia native, has closing experience. In 2007 and 2008 he was Pittsburgh’s closer and posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.995 WHIP, and a 103-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 132 and 2/3 innings while successfully converting 83% of his save opportunities. 2009 was a different story, however.
In 2009 his ERA ballooned to 5.80, his WHIP to 1.656, and he posted a 46-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54 and 1/3 innings. Some of this has to do with his .364 BABIP, but a lot of it has to do with his walk rate jumping from 1.4 BB/9 in ’07-’08 to 2.8 BB/9 in ’09. His FIP was 3.18 in 2007 and 3.28 in 2008, but, despite the increased strikeout rate, his FIP rose to 4.90 in 2009.
There’s much evidence that his control suffered greatly in 2009. His stuff was just as good, if not better, than it had ever been. The fastball velocity and slider velocity were higher than they’d ever been in 2009, perhaps evidence that he was attempting to throw harder and sacrificed control in the process (leading to the increased walk rate). The change-up (which he only threw 6.2% of the time) was not good and the average velocity of that pitch was up to 87.1 MPH after never being above 84.6 MPH.
I’m useful for analyzing the past, but I have no idea what Capps is going to do. If the Braves believe they can improve Capps’ control/command and reverse some of these patterns, he’s probably an excellent buy-low candidate. He won’t ever be a guy who will blow away hitters, his secondary stuff isn’t good enough, but if he can ditch or improve the change-up and start throwing strikes again, there’s no reason he can’t be a reliable closer. I’d have more to add if I were a scout, but I’m not, so I probably haven’t gotten any closer to an answer.
If the Braves do pursue him, it’ll be because they think they can work with him and he’ll improve in 2010.
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As you mentioned… he threw everything harder in 09 than 08
Fastball 91.5 to 93.6
Slider 82.9 to 84.7
Change 84.6 to 87.1
The question here, should be… What about vertical and horizontal movement? Did he sacrifice some movement for a couple of MPH?
He improved his GB/FB rate from .68 to 1
His BABIP increased, as you mentioned, and his HR/FB rate rose from 6.8 to 13.5.
I kind of like this move. Assuming the braves can get him under a similar contract as Mike Gonzalez last year.
The question is… Who are the braves giving up to get him?
I should add…
I would love if the braves signed Billy Wagner. I think he has a chip on his shoulder (In a good way). And Atlanta is the perfect place for him to prove his point.
WRT pitch break, might have, especially on the fastball. I don’t know the answer, though. I could look it up but that’d take a long time (would involve excel, too). The most noticeable effect, I would think, would have been the control issues.
WRT Wagner, I like the idea. If the Red Sox offer him arbitration, I like it less, but still like it. Especially if the Braves sign another Type A, that way they’re giving up their second round pick for him. And they’re getting back 3 picks, I assume (2 for Gonzalez, one for LaRoche), so I think they’re probably alright. Even if Wagner is the only Type A free agent the Braves sign, I still like the idea. And I think the Braves are in the best position to land him.
The Braves have consistently been the team that rolled the dice on the cheap player who might just come around (and usually doesn’t). I’m surprised Capps isn’t already signed.
For one because he’s not a free agent. He’s under Pittsburgh’s control as an arbitration eligible player.
Guillermo: would you rather have Wagner or MiGonzalez? I have no idea how much Wagner will cost.
Capps made $2.3M this year; I assume he’ll make at least that much in arb. I would not give up anything valuable to get that, though I like the idea of taking a risk on him (but not as the closer).
Hizouse… I agree on Capps. It is just that i think that the Braves are so close that it would really piss me off if the team didn’t adress the bullpen. Those potential loses of Soriano and Gonzalez worry me. But in fairness to the organization, most of the time they have figured out how to build a good bullpen.
Gonzalez Vs. Wagner. The fan in me says Wagner. But, I think that it is clear that Gonzalez is a better investment.
Both have had arm troubles. Gonzalez is 7 years younger.
I am speculating that Gonzalez wants a big payday. At least a 3 year contract worth plus 20M. While Wagner wants a closing opportunity with a good team that can make the playoffs.
In fantasy, i want them both at 5M a year. jajajaja
In reality, i want a good cheap bullpen. But if i have to overpay for 1 player, just for 2010, give me Wagner (Assuming a complete and thorough physical).
CAC (#5), meh, technicalities. ;-)
Always those minor details getting in the way :).