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Rough Estimates of Braves Starters Trade Value
By Capitol Avenue Club | November 19, 2009
The trade value is in green:
| Tommy Hanson | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 5.0 | $400,000 | $22,100,000 |
| 2011 | 5.2 | $400,000 | $23,000,000 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | $400,000 | $17,300,000 |
| 2013 | 5.6 | $7,000,000 | $13,200,000 |
| 2014 | 5.8 | $12,000,000 | $10,100,000 |
| 2015 | 6.0 | $16,000,000 | $11,000,000 |
| Total | 33.0 | $36,200,000 | $96,700,000 |
| Jair Jurrjens | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 3.5 | $400,000 | $15,350,000 |
| 2011 | 3.7 | $5,000,000 | $11,650,000 |
| 2012 | 3.9 | $8,000,000 | $9,550,000 |
| 2013 | 4.1 | $12,000,000 | $6,450,000 |
| Total | 15.2 | $25,400,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Tim Hudson | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 3.8 | $9,000,000 | $8,100,000 |
| 2011 | 3.7 | $9,000,000 | $7,650,000 |
| 2012 | 3.6 | $9,000,000 | $7,200,000 |
| Total | 11.1 | $27,000,000 | $22,950,000 |
| Javier Vazquez | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 6.5 | $11,500,000 | $17,750,000 |
| Total | 6.5 | $11,500,000 | $17,750,000 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 2.4 | $6,666,666 | $4,133,334 |
| 2011 | 2.5 | $6,666,666 | $4,583,334 |
| Total | 4.9 | $13,333,332 | $8,716,668 |
| Derek Lowe | |||
| Year | WAR | Salary | Excess |
| 2010 | 3.6 | $15,000,000 | $1,200,000 |
| 2011 | 3.5 | $15,000,000 | $750,000 |
| 2012 | 3.4 | $15,000,000 | $300,000 |
| Total | 10.5 | $30,000,000 | $1,050,000 |
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 6 Comments »
November 19th, 2009 at 12:48 PM
Don’t get me wrong.
I really like Tommy Hanson… but projecting a +5 WAR for 6 straight years is out of the question.
In the last 3 years only 3 NL pitchers have those kind of results (Lincecum, Haren, Vazquez).
I know Hanson is the Braves biggest asset, but he is not worth 33 WAR over the next 6 years.
But, the point is clear… he is close to untradeable
…………..
Good analysis on Medlen… i really did not know he had that kind of potential.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:49 PM
Obviously, in coming up with these numbers for Jurrjens and Hanson you are not projecting on 4 years of ML data. It MAY be possible to project KK based on an MLE substitution from Japan, but as young as Hanson and JJ are, using minor league data MLE woudl be a shot in the dark.
Athought I BASICALLY agree with your estimates of production, I think you need to apply a “projection uncertainty discount” based on lack of ML data or else this doesn’t tell a whole lot. So these rally aren’t trade values, but rather:
Estimated surplus (deficit) of value of production to cost of replacement of production.
Clearly, Hanson “one up” doesn’t bring back twice what JJ would or 6 times what JV would, or 4.5 times what Hudson would (or 90 times what Lowe would, either).
November 19th, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Guillermo,
We’ll see. Hanson was worth 2.7 WAR in 4 months this season, but he pitched rather poorly in his first month and got lucky (18-to-17 strikeout-to-walk). The cause of this is up for debate, but I’m chalking it to nervousness. I think he’s a 5-6 win pitcher.
Cliff,
The projection uncertainty we have is negated in practice by the scouting advantages the ML clubs have.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:50 PM
then p.w.,
You believe that Hanson would really bring in twice as big of a haul as JJ if offered for trade?
November 19th, 2009 at 4:29 PM
In a perfectly efficient market, yes.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:25 PM
Even if i don’t agree (Mainly because he is only 23 and is a pitcher). I really hope your prediction holds up. :)