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Who Plays 1B in 2010?
By Capitol Avenue Club | November 21, 2009
Just a few scenarios, in no relevant order:
1. Adam LaRoche – He’s a free agent, probably the best available on the market. We all know the story, power-hitter, not a great deal of patience, loopy swing conducive to K’s and a mediocre average, fringe-average defensively, horrible base runner, left-handed. You know when a career .834 OPS 1B is the best that it’s a rather weak market. Probably going to get more years and dollars than the Braves are willing to commit.
2. Nick Johnson – Another free agent. He’s better defensively, hits for a better average, runs the bases better, and is a much more patient hitter than Adam LaRoche, but he doesn’t have the home-run power Adam does. Injury concerns will likely drive his price down and I view him as a nice “Plan C” or something like that. Sort of a, “Hey, I don’t do the things you want me to (hit a bunch of home runs, bat right-handed), but I do everything else really well!” A better alternative than a fringy, low-OBP right-handed power hitter who plays very bad defense if you ask me.
3. Russell Branyan – If the Mariners fail to re-sign him, he’s not the worst thing Frank Wren could head into spring training with. He was basically a AAAA player until this year when he hit 1,315,153 home runs before the all-star break (slight exaggeration) but injuries de-railed his 2nd half. He hits left-handed, he plays horrible defense, low average, tons of K’s, decent patience, and a brutal base runner. Still, his power stroke is real, he’s got 70-80 raw power and he has a fair amount of value even when he isn’t getting BABIP lucky.
4. Carlos Delgado – Definition of a buy-low. I’m not sure the Braves can afford the risk they’d assume by relying on Delgado.
5. Troy Glaus – Another buy-low. The risk is probably the same as Delgado’s, but I see Glaus as a better potential fit due to his right-handedness.
6. Adrian Gonzalez – There are mixed reports as to whether or not he’s actually available. Tremendously talented, left-handed power hitter with plenty of patience, plus defense, and merely below-average base running. There’s not a lot Gonzalez doesn’t do well. He’s owed only $12 million or so over the next two years. I don’t see the Braves breaking the bank to acquire him for two reasons. One, he’s left-handed. Two, Freddie Freeman doesn’t suit the Padres’ needs, as they have a more capable replacement for Gonzalez in Kyle Blanks already on their roster.
7. Billy Butler – The ideal type of hitter the Braves would acquire. I’ve read no reports that he’s available and plenty to the contrary, but anyone can be had for a price. I suppose that price would begin with Jair Jurrjens. Butler’s 23 years old, bats right-handed, has above-average patience, hits for a high average, and has 35+ homer power. His defense and base running are suspect, but you look the other way with a hitter like that.
8. Miguel Cabrera – There’s nothing you don’t like about Cabrera except for his contract. He’s owed $126 million over the next 6 years, though he’s likely to be worth it. He’s entering his age 27 season and is already the total-package 1B. Hits for average, above-average patience, more than enough power, right-handed hitter, plays decent defense, and isn’t a liability on the base paths. I don’t know if he’s available, but with the financial troubles in Detroit and the reports that he’s caused a problem or two, many have speculated he could be had. I don’t see the Braves ponying up and taking on all of Cabrera’s contract, but if I were Wren I’d seriously consider it. It’s a move that could potentially handicap your future, but it’s hard to argue there’s a player more “worth it” than Cabrera.
9. Jorge Cantu – Right-handed hitter. Not a particularly good one.
10. Jake Fox – His defense is supposedly “Scott Thorman bad” and he’ll be 27 next hear and has amassed 256 career PA’s. The good news is he’s right-handed and he’s hit 93 HR’s the past 4 seasons in the minors. He hit 11 HR’s for the Cubs in 241 PA’s in 2009. Of the 11 HR’s, 3 were No-Doubters, 5 were Plenty, and 3 were Just Enough, a very sustainable rate, though all were to left field. He’s a notorious pull-hitter and scouts wonder whether or not he’ll be able to have sustained success in MLB (Jeff Francoeur 2.0 basically). Interesting player. He probably doesn’t have a spot in Chicago with $30 million committed to two players that occupy the only positions he could possibly play regularly (D. Lee – 1B, A. Soriano – LF), so he could presumably be had. The lack of a MLB track record should keep his price down, too. Most 0-1 year players like this possess a fair chunk of upside, but there’s also a much higher collapse rate than you’d like. I trust the Braves to make the correct decision on players like this, so if they’ve done their homework they have a much better idea of how valuable he is than we possibly could.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 14 Comments »
November 21st, 2009 at 2:59 PM
New Poll.
November 21st, 2009 at 5:16 PM
Got some dark horse 1B for you:
Oscar Salazar: Righty 31 SDP
Career Utility player. Has done well in AAA and limited time in the majors. Played mostly LF and 1B. I think his contract ends in 2010.
Micah Kaaihue: 25 KCR
Blocked by Billy Butler, but he should have been the Royal’s 1B this year (with Butler the DH). Had an off year at AAA in 09 and didn’t even get a call up. Still, he walked 101 times (.394opb) and was slugging <.600 in 08. Should be able to get him for some scrub player that Dayton Moore has a crush on.
Juan Miranda: Lefty 26 NYY
Yankee prospect that they probably don’t need. More of a DH than a 1B though. Put up .288/.375/.476 in 2 seasons in AAA. Could try to unload D. Lowe (and his contract) for him.
Chris Shelton: Righty 29 SEA
The other power 1B Jack Zduriencik picked up last year. AAA numbers are good (.303/.395/.486) but he’s been there 6 years…
November 21st, 2009 at 5:21 PM
I agree, Cabrera should be worth his contract. Just depends on the ability to spend with whatever the interested team is.
November 21st, 2009 at 6:05 PM
Great stuff, BBH.
Joe, do you think the Sox would/should be interested in Cabrera?
November 21st, 2009 at 6:40 PM
I don’t know that they “should.” Gonzalez is definitely cheaper and hasn’t had his work ethic questioned. But Cabrera is a great player, but seems to be a little expensive for Theo’s taste. Notice how the highest paid player right now is $14 million… But I would bet Theo understands how much the addition of Miguel could help.
November 21st, 2009 at 7:00 PM
Plus the two potential future 1B in the system make Gonzalez’s shorter contract length more appealing. Then again, when you’re shipping that kind of haul somewhere, you’d probably prefer to get more than 2 years of control.
November 21st, 2009 at 8:08 PM
allright, I was just curious about Victor Martinez? Is he available out of boston with ortiz and kotchman there?
and doesn’t Billy Butler weigh about 350 pounds?? seems likethe would be putting Mo Vaughn in
November 21st, 2009 at 8:46 PM
“allright, I was just curious about Victor Martinez? Is he available out of boston with ortiz and kotchman there?”
Martinez will be starting C for Boston next season, he’s unavailable.
A couple more who I think might be available inexpensively either through trade or b/c they’re FA: Conor Jackson (Allen at 1B, Byrnes/Parra in LF), Nady, Swisher, Atkins (only if nontendered), Ryan Garko (Sabean is reportedly interested in Nick Johnson for 1B).
November 21st, 2009 at 11:47 PM
Keith,
Like Kinsey said, Victor Martinez is most likely unavailable. And for me, you can weigh 850 LB’s as long as you can hit .300 with 80 raw power. But Butler’s not 350 LB’s, he’s listed at 6’1″ 240 LB. He’s not skinny, but he’s not fat by any stretch of the imagination. One of my good friends played against him in high school, said he’s the best hitter he’s ever played against, and very athletic for being a bit pudgy.
Kinsey,
I like Swisher better for the OF than 1B, but I’m very high on him. Nady I’m not a fan of, I see him as a high collapse rate player with little upside. Career .280/.335/.458 hitter on the wrong side of 30 coming off a second Tommy John surgery. Even if he makes a full recovery, he’s not your ideal bat, or even close really. I suppose the Braves should monitor his progress, because he’d probably be better than nothing if all else fails. Conor Jackson is really a LF’er. He’s horrible defensively at 1B but about average defensively in LF, and he’s a career .281/.361/.431 hitter. Assuming he’s fully healthy from the Valley Fever, he might actually be a pretty good back-up plan for LF, but he brings nothing to the table at 1B except a below-average bat and a terrible glove. If Garko is non-tendered, he’d be worth a look I presume, but again he’s a career .279/.351/.441 hitter. Heading into his age 29 season, he probably deserves more than just a look, but probably not for an arbitration salary. Garrett Atkins is a career .252/.324/.411 hitter away from Coors and his K/BB ratio has increased for the past few years now. I’m skeptical of his ability to contribute.
November 22nd, 2009 at 12:16 AM
Matthew Pouliot apparently thinks Frank Wren is stupid. First he predicts Aubrey Huff signs with the Braves now he predicts we’ll give Jose Valverde 3 years, $30 million. Are the Braves suckers now? When do the Braves ever go out and sign big-name, overrated closers for inflated market rate? And not to mention his gem on the Cy Young voting. He’s quickly becoming one of my least favorites on the internet writing community. By the way, here’s what Keith Law wrote about Jose Valverde in his top-50 free agents (subscription required) (he ranked Valverde 36th overall. Gonzo was 16, Soriano was 19, Billy Wagner was 23, and Rafael Betancourt was 33, for reference):
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:44 AM
Kelly Johnson?
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:28 PM
LOL
So according to Mr. Pouliot
*Sign 32 year old 1B Aubrey Huff and his left handed .241/.310/.384 09 line for $3.5/1year.
*Non-tender or dump Kelly Johnson. I guess to use his salary to pick up Huff.
I would rather just stick Kelly out there at first. Or Prado. Or Canizares. Or a midget with a strike zone the size of a pea.
[Just for fun 2010 CHONE projections:
3.5 mil Huff: 0.265/0.329/0.440
400K Canizares: 0.276/0.337/0.418]
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:58 PM
Derek Lowe + Nate McLouth + Kelly Johnson for Derek Lee + Kosuke Fukudome
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:25 AM
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