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A Saber-ish Silly Trade Post
By Capitol Avenue Club | November 23, 2009
A Saber-ish Silly Trade Post
Or, How To: Debunk/Create a Trade Rumor
I heard an infamous XM Radio Rumor*: the Padres asked for Jair Jurrjens, Jordan Schafer, Freddie Freeman, and Kris Medlen (that’s probably the order of commonly perceived trade value, maybe with Freeman and Schafer reversed, though it’s nothing close to the order of true value) in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez.
*By the way, with regard to any rumor that supposedly originates on XM Radio, I believe David O’Brien said it best:
Just curious, anyone here ever notice that whenever a rumor starts with “I heard on XM radio” or “lot of talk on XM radio about,” that it almost never comes true and often is completely bogus and was never even uttered on XM radio? They’re pulling your leg at least 90 percent of the time when guys come on here with these supposed rumors that only they heard mentioned. Just fabricated nonsense usually, hoping people will bite on a “rumor” that’s usually nothing more than something made up by a person who probably doesn’t have XM radio.
Properly debunking this particular rumor doesn’t take much effort because the creator of this supposed rumor was either lazy or uninformed. For example, the inclusion of Freddie Freeman in any deal to the Padres doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The Padres have a player of Freeman’s exact contractual status (0-1 years, no super-2 eligibility concerns) who is already MLB ready and a better player. Freeman provides little value to them other than a) insurance for their current future 1B (and it would be foolish to sink so many resources into this area) and b) anything they’d net in a deal involving Freeman, which certainly isn’t nothing, and Freeman’s value hasn’t depreciated, but why acquire a player like that? A player that you have no plans for and would turn around and trade, anyway?
Furthermore, I don’t see the organization trading Schafer. There are plenty of trade chips in the system and the organization has the luxury of choosing which ones to part with and there’s still enough there to acquire elite talent. Schafer’s probably one of the “we’re not trading” ones. He’s too important to the future of the organization.
But even if he were a more crafty fiction-writer and the Braves were willing to part with all four players and the Padres had use for all four, it’s still an enormously lop-sided trade.
For the sake of conservatism, let’s assume Adrian Gonzalez will be worth 7.0 wins for the next two seasons. This is a vast overestimate as he’s never been worth that in a single season. His most valuable season was 2009, in which he was worth 6.3 wins, and he’s only been worth 4.0 or more wins once. He most likely won’t net 14.0 wins in 2010 and 2011, but I’m being intentionally obtuse to over-correct for the gray area involved. So let’s assume he does. Given we know the market rate for wins ($4,500,000) and Adrian Gonzalez’s contract terms, we can compute his trade value. I’ve used Sky Kalkman’s Trade Value Calculator (Beyond the Box Score)
Figure 1 – Adrian Gonzalez Trade Value Table
| Adrian Gonzalez | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $4.8 | 7.0 | $31.9 | $27.2 |
| 2011 | $5.5 | 7.0 | $31.9 | $26.4 |
| FA Picks | $5.0 | |||
| Total | $10.3 | 14.0 | $68.8 | $58.6 |
My back-of-the-spreadsheet calculation confirms the spreadsheet’s functionality and accuracy (14 WAR * $4.5 (M) $/WAR – $10.25 (M) (salary) + $0.8 (M) (replacement) +$5 (M) (Draft Picks Value)) = $58.55 (M). So that’s it, that’s Adrian Gonzalez’s trade value, in terms of excess value. Because that’s basically why teams make trades, to fulfill needs in a more cost-efficient way (more excess value, aka bigger “bang for your buck”) than paying market-rate. They sacrifice talent of their own to do so.
Now. According to our rumor smith, the Padres requested four players. One with two years of service time, one with zero years of service time who will be eligible for super-two if he’s on an active roster for the rest of his MLB career, and two with zero years of service time who will not be eligible for super-two if they’re on an active roster for the rest of their MLB career. They are Jair Jurrjens, Kris Medlen, Freddie Freeman, and Jordan Schafer, respectively. All in all, you’re talking about 9 years of obligation for league minimum and 13 years of obligation for heavily discounted arbitration salaries. For any swap involving 22 service years for two service years, the two service years have to be pretty damn good for it to resemble anything close to fair, but Adrian Gonzalez is pretty damn good. Is he this good, though?
Again, being extremely conservative let’s assume Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlen are 2.5-win players for rest of their current contracts and Jordan Schafer and Freddie Freeman are 3-win players for the rest of their current contracts. For reference, a league average player is worth ~2 WAR. Again, I’m being extremely conservative here. There’s a fairly decent chance that all 4 of these players will be worth more than that and by quite a bit. But using artificially small numbers that still support my point strengthens the argument by accounting for a great deal of the variance. Let’s also assume they don’t net the team any draft picks via free agent compensation.
Observe the trade values of the four allegedly requested players:
Figure 2- Jair Jurrjens Trade Value Table
| Jair Jurrjens | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $11.3 |
| 2011 | $4.7 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $7.0 |
| 2012 | $7.0 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $4.7 |
| 2013 | $9.3 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $2.3 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $21.4 | 10.0 | $46.6 | $25.2 |
Figure 3 – Jordan Schafer Trade Value Table
| Jordan Schafer | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2011 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2012 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2013 | $5.6 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $8.3 |
| 2014 | $8.3 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $5.6 |
| 2015 | $11.1 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $2.8 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $26.2 | 18.0 | $83.4 | $57.2 |
Figure 4 – Freddie Freeman Trade Value Table
| Freddie Freeman | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2011 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2012 | $0.4 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $13.5 |
| 2013 | $5.6 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $8.3 |
| 2014 | $8.3 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $5.6 |
| 2015 | $11.1 | 3.0 | $13.9 | $2.8 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $26.2 | 18.0 | $83.4 | $57.2 |
Figure 5 – Kris Medlen Trade Value Table
| Kris Medlen | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $11.3 |
| 2011 | $0.4 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $11.3 |
| 2012 | $4.7 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $7.0 |
| 2013 | $7.0 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $4.7 |
| 2014 | $9.3 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $2.3 |
| 2015 | $10.5 | 2.5 | $11.7 | $1.2 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $32.3 | 15.0 | $69.9 | $37.6 |
Schafer or Freeman alone, under these assumptions, would be worth more than Adrian Gonzalez. In fact, this is how lop-sided the trade looks.
Figure 6 – Trade Proposal Comparison 1
| San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | ||
| Name | Net (M) | Name | Net (M) |
| Adrian Gonzalez | $58.6 | Jordan Schafer | $57.2 |
| Freddie Freeman | $57.2 | ||
| Kris Medlen | $37.6 | ||
| Jair Jurrjens | $25.2 | ||
| Total Contribution | $58.6 | Total Contribution | $177.2 |
Using the most conservative of estimates, the Padres make out with 3 times as much value as the Braves do. Four players on the verge of or having already generated MLB impact are some times dealt I would guess, but not for a guy with only two years remaining on his contract. By the way, assume all four are league average every remaining year of their respective contracts (2-win players), they’re still worth more than twice ($127.1) as valuable as Adrian Gonzalez. Even assume they’re all fringy 1-win players for every remaining year of their respective contracts, and they’re still worth more ($64.5) than Adrian Gonzalez. It would certainly be worth considering if they were fringy 1-win players and perhaps even league-average players, but you’re not talking about low-ceiling players or high collapse-rate players.
Now, for coming up with a realistic rebuttal. Given the reward of consolidating so many wins into one player (the roster spot is worth something, too) and Adrian Gonzalez’s status in San Diego, the Padres’ should probably demand (and get, if they so choose) to be compensated like Gonzalez actually is a 7-win player. Given that I’ve deduced trading Schafer isn’t an option and Freeman doesn’t suit the Padres’ needs, we’ll start with Medlen and Jurrjens.
Figure 7 – Trade Proposal Comparison 2
| San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | ||
| Name | Net (M) | Name | Net (M) |
| Adrian Gonzalez | $58.6 | Kris Medlen | $37.6 |
| Jair Jurrjens | $25.2 | ||
| Total Contribution | $58.6 | Total Contribution | $62.9 |
If you buy into my assumptions, Kris Medlen and Jair Jurrjens seems like a fair return for Adrian Gonzalez.
One more:
Figure 8 – Billy Butler Trade Value Table
| Billy Butler | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 5.5 | $25.2 | $24.8 |
| 2011 | $10.1 | 5.5 | $25.2 | $15.1 |
| 2012 | $15.1 | 5.5 | $25.2 | $10.1 |
| 2013 | $20.1 | 5.5 | $25.2 | $5.0 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $45.7 | 22.0 | $100.6 | $54.9 |
Figure 9 – Joakim Soria Trade Value Table
| Joakim Soria | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $3.0 | 2.0 | $9.4 | $6.4 |
| 2011 | $4.0 | 2.0 | $9.4 | $5.4 |
| 2012 | $6.0 | 2.0 | $9.4 | $3.4 |
| 2013 | $8.0 | 2.0 | $9.4 | $1.4 |
| 2014 | $8.8 | 2.0 | $9.4 | $0.7 |
| FA Picks | $5.0 | |||
| Total | $29.8 | 10.0 | $52.0 | $22.3 |
Figure 10 – Luis Valdez Trade Value Table
| Luis Valdez | ||||
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2010 | $0.4 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $3.6 |
| 2011 | $0.4 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $3.6 |
| 2012 | $0.4 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $3.6 |
| 2013 | $1.6 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $2.4 |
| 2014 | $2.4 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $1.6 |
| 2015 | $3.2 | 0.8 | $4.0 | $0.8 |
| FA Picks | $0.0 | |||
| Total | $8.4 | 4.8 | $24.0 | $15.6 |
Figure 11 – Trade Proposal Comparison 3
| Kansas City Royals | Atlanta Braves | ||
| Name | Net (M) | Name | Net (M) |
| Billy Butler | $54.9 | Freddie Freeman | $57.2 |
| Joakim Soria | $33.5 | Jair Jurrjens | $25.2 |
| Luis Valdez | $15.6 | ||
| Total Contribution | $88.4 | Total Contribution | $98.0 |
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 5 Comments »
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Does WAR have a “park factor”? I believe A. Gonzalez is probably losing 100 OPS points at home (I have seen the numbers, but am not stopping to look them up). At Turner as a home park, and reducing games in Dodger and PacBell (or whatever it is today) but losing the good games at Coors and BOB (or whatever) He should pick up most of that 100 points.
I agree that Padres won’t do one up for Jair and A. Gon. However, that is actually close based on projections not deliberately pushed in favor of A. Gon and against Jair. I would go Jair plus (and not necessarily anybody great).
I think you ae high on Schafer and Freeman. Schafer needs to re-establish his hitting after his surgery. Wrist problems are frequently lingering power losses for the remainder of a career. Saying Freeman will produce at that level is a stretch. For trade purposes, I don’t think anybody will play there. I believe other teams would value Medlin about the same as Schafer and Freeman, independent of the other clubs needs (clearly, Padres have more need for Medlin than for Freeman).
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:16 AM
P. W.,
Wondering how you would value Clay Buckholtz? Apparently, the Red Sox are considering him as a centerpiece to try for A. Gon (maybe after signing Lackey). Based on Buckholtz 3 times up with attendant problems, assuming equal arb status, I don’t think I would trade Medlin one up for Buckholtz.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Peter, you may be discounting the need-to-win-in-2010-at-any-cost-for-Bobby factor.
I would also guess that your estimates for Schafer and Freeman are a little high, but your estimate for Medlen is way high–if he’s a reliever. Broxton was the only RP at more than 2.5 WAR this year. And even if Medlen is a SP, it’s premature to think he’ll be as good as Jair.
#1: WAR is park-adjusted
#2: The Braves would trade Medlen for ClBuchholz in a second. It’s not close.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:41 PM
cliff,
If the Braves had Buchholz and he was mentioned in this rumor, I would value him at around 4 wins a season.
Hizouse,
Medlen would start for most teams he’s traded to and he’ll probably be starting in Atlanta as soon as in 2011 if he’s not traded. I think they’re remarkably similar in terms of future production. I even give Medlen an edge. Anyway, I estimated their value on the very low end of the spectrum, so whoever is better won’t really be relevant, because they’ll both likely be worth more than what I’ve estimated.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:48 PM
I think Jurrjens for Gonzalez, all things considered, would be a fair trade. The Padres don’t need Gonzalez anymore because they already have a cheap and capable replacemaent for him. What they need is pitching, especially cheap pitching, and Jurrjens provides just that. The Braves, on the other hand, have more than enough pitching but need a slugging first baseman.