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Braves offer Arbitration to Soriano, Gonzalez
By Capitol Avenue Club | December 1, 2009
According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves have offered arbitration to two type A FA’s Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. They declined to offer arbitration to type B FA’s Adam LaRoche and (implicitly) Garret Anderson.
What can Braves fans expect? Well, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have until December 7th to accept or decline the offer. If they accept, they’re under contract with the Braves for the 2010 season at a salary to be determined later, either by mutual agreement or by a salary arbitrator. If Mike Gonzalez accepts (extremely unlikely) I estimate he’d make $5.5-$6.5 million in arbitration. If Rafael Soriano accepts (also extremely unlikely) I estimate he’d make $8-$9 million in arbitration. Both of them will probably be looking to get (and will get) multi-year deals worth more than their estimated arbitration salaries.
If they decline, they become Free Agents and are free to sign with any team. Seeing as they’re classified as Type A FA’s, the Braves offered them arbitration, and they declined, the Braves will net two draft picks for each of them. Two of the picks will be during the first supplemental round. There are 32 picks in the first round of the 2010 draft (one extra for the Rangers failing to sign Matt Purke and one extra for the Rays failing to sign LeVon Washington). The order that the compensation round proceeds in is the order of their Elias ranking. Mike Gonzalez is ranked 5th, behind Matt Holliday, Jose Valverde, Jason Bay, and Johnny Damon, and Rafael Soriano is ranked 7th behind the aforementioned 5 and John Lackey. There’s little question whether or not the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Angels will offer arbitration to this winter’s big 3, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and John Lackey, respectively. We learned earlier today that the Astros have offered Jose Valverde arbitration and that the Yankees declined to offer Johnny Damon arbitration. That makes Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano at worst* in line to net the Braves overall pick number 36 and overall pick number 38 in the 2010 draft.
*Of course, if Jason Bay re-signs with the Red Sox, Matt Holliday re-signs with the Cardinals, Jose Valverde re-signs with the Astros, and John Lackey re-signs with the Angels, the Braves could net the overall pick number 33 and the overall pick number 34.
Additionally, the Braves will net a draft pick directly from the team that signs Soriano or Gonzalez. Where that pick comes in the draft is a function of two variables. Number one is the other type A free agents their new team signs. In the case that a team signs multiple type A free agents, the order of their Elias Ranking determines which teams have priority for the draft pick compensation. For instance, if the Rays sign only one type A FA, Rafael Soriano, the Braves get their #17 overall pick. However, if they sign Matt Holliday, John Lackey, and Rafael Soriano, the Braves get their #16 pick in the third round. The second thing that determines where the pick comes is the new team’s 2010 draft order. The top 15 selections (plus the one the Rangers get for signing Matt Purke) are protected and can’t be given away as free agent compensation. For instance, last year the Braves signed Derek Lowe, a type A free agent who had been offered arbitration by his previous club (the Dodgers). However, the Braves picked 7th overall in the 2009 draft thanks to their poor finish (72-90) in 2008, which was a protected selection, so the Dodgers received the Braves’ 2nd round pick instead.
We’ll know more about the draft picks the Braves will receive (if Gonzo/Soriano sign elsewhere, which is almost a given at this point) as the off-season progresses, but I’ll say this, this upcoming draft is a very important one. With (likely) four additional top-60 picks, the Braves will be in a great position to add a few quality prospects.
It’s curious that the Braves didn’t offer Adam LaRoche arbitration. It seemed unlikely that he’d accept and I didn’t think the Braves would mind having LaRoche back on a 1 year, $9-$10 million contract. Perhaps Frank Wren is thinking bigger, perhaps they’re in a worse financial position than they’re letting on. No way of knowing.
A few other arb notes:
Though Jose Valverde was offered arbitration, LaTroy Hawkins wasn’t (see above link re: Valverde), so he could be a bullpen option. Kevin Gregg was also not offered arbitration, though I don’t really like him for the Braves. Octavio Dotel also joins the ranks of uncompensated Type A’s. He could certainly be an option for the Braves.
It seems likely that Billy Wagner will be offered arbitration. We learned earlier today that the Rockies have offered arbitration to Rafael Betancourt. Both of these relievers would cost the Braves their first round pick to sign and now look much less appealing. The only other Type A reliever we’re unsure of is Darren Oliver, though I doubt the Braves are interested in him in the first place.
There are no Type A 1B’s, and there are only 4 Type A OF’s. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will undoubtedly be offered arbitration, Johnny Damon was not offered arbitration, and it was no surprise to learn that Jermaine Dye was not offered arbitration (linked above re: Dotel).
Feel free to discuss various arbitration-related (or not) things.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 5 Comments »
December 1st, 2009 at 8:20 PM
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December 1st, 2009 at 11:09 PM
I happen to think monarch butterflys are the prettiest – and the deadliest…
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:14 AM
First post here. I’m an rss subscriber, thanks for the great reading…
I didn’t expect the braves to offer LaRoche arbitration. The show he put on when returning to Atlanta would surely win him an arbitration case. I think it was a risk Wren didn’t want to take. Ideally they lure him in with a 3 year deal and trade him 1.5yrs into the contract. Obviously LaRoche knows that would be his fate, so I’m not sure he’s gonna sign.
Garret who?
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:24 AM
Thanks for subscribing to the rss, eric.
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:30 AM
First blush, I’m surprised that they didn’t offer LaRoche arb either. Would think that with the needs of other clubs like the Mets and Giants at 1B and the weak FA class that he’d be nearly or more likely to secure a multi-year deal as Soriano. But I suppose they ultimately decided a 9 mil-ish gamble to net a sandwich round pick wasn’t worth it, but a similar gamble for a sandwich and a first, from Soriano, was. I can live with that.
Buster Olney had a blurb today about an NL East team asking Mark DeRosa about playing OF full time next year. Def’ly not the Phillies, probably not the Nats, probably not the Marlins…