Braves Add a Future HOF’er
December 2, 2009 at 12:58 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Updated 12/02/2009. See table and bottom.
Transaction Analysis Blog: Atlanta Braves
Signed Billy Wagner to a 1-year, $7 million contract with a vesting option worth $6.5 million for 2011.
Attempting to off-set the practically imminent departure of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez has clearly been one of Frank Wren’s priorities from the onset of the off-season. However, I didn’t expect him to bring in the greatest left-handed reliever of all time before the Winter Meetings. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports (confirmed by David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), the Braves have agreed with Billy Wagner on a 1-year, $7 million contract with a $6.5 million vesting option for 2011. Wagner is flying to Atlanta as I write to take his physical, the final step before an official announcement is made. Of course, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors notes: “The move is pending a physical, which could be more than a formality in this case.” Wagner had a rehab-themed season last year, logging only 15 and 2/3 innings, as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, so the risk of a physical ailment presenting issues at his physical is perhaps greater than said risk involving a fully healthy free agent.
First impression, $7 million is a lot of money to spend on a reliever, and it also comes with the price of the Braves #20 overall selection in the 2010 draft attached. Additionally Billy Wagner will be 38 years old next season and is a mere 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Then again, we’re not talking about a normal reliever, we’re talking about Billy Wagner, one of the greatest relievers of all time. In his career, Wagner has pitched in 782 games (0 starts) and logged 833 and 2/3 innings with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.009 WHIP, and a 1092-to-278 strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.93 K/BB).
Billy Wagner was one of 5 Type A classified relievers to receive an arbitration offer, along with Jose Valverde, Rafael Betancourt, and our own Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. The other 4 are most probably going to get multi-year deals worth more than $13.5 million. The Braves pitted Wagner’s draft-pick demands, age, and injury history against the upside and wound up with what could be a very good value, should he return to form and stay healthy. If Wagner weren’t a Type A compensated free agent, he’d probably be looking at getting a deal closer to the one Kerry Wood got last off-season (2 years, $20.5 million, plus a $11 million vesting/club option for 2011). The Braves, seeing as they have two of their own Type A’s departing, were willing to sacrifice the draft pick in order to sign a closer to a more team-friendly contract, paying a reduced market rate rather than full market rate.
As much as I hate to lose such a high draft pick and spend so much money on a reliever, it’s impossible to ignore the upside here. Having a shut-down left-hander at the back end of your bullpen is a very desirable proposition, and no player better fits that description better than Billy Wagner.
Wagner will likely handle the closing duties, and will join a bullpen that already includes Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen, and Eric O’Flaherty. I imagine we’ll see at least 4-5 months of Scott Proctor, as well. Craig Kimbrel, Boone Logan, and Manny Acosta could also be options for the 2010 bullpen, though I have a feeling Frank Wren isn’t finished acquiring relievers. Adding another set-up man could make the bullpen one of the best in the league. As it stands right now, this is what the Braves active roster is shaping up to look like (Updated: 12/02/2009):
| Pos: | Name: | 2010 Salary |
| SP - | Javier Vazquez | $11,500,000 |
| SP - | Tim Hudson | $9,000,000 |
| SP - | Jair Jurrjens | $400,000 |
| SP - | Tommy Hanson | $400,000 |
| SP - | Derek Lowe | $15,000,000 |
| SP - | Kenshin Kawakami | $6,666,666 |
| RP - | Billy Wagner | $7,000,000 |
| RP - | Peter Moylan | $1,500,000 |
| RP - | Eric O’Flaherty | $400,000 |
| RP - | Kris Medlen | $400,000 |
| RP - | Scott Proctor | $750,000 |
| RP - | ||
| RP - | ||
| C - | Brian McCann | $5,666,666 |
| 1B - | ||
| 2B - | Martin Prado | $400,000 |
| SS - | Yunel Escobar | $400,000 |
| 3B - | Chipper Jones | $14,000,000 |
| LF - | Matt Diaz | $3,000,000 |
| CF - | Nate McLouth | $4,500,000 |
| RF - | ||
| BC - | David Ross | $1,600,000 |
| UT - | Omar Infante | $1,850,000 |
| UT - | ||
| OF - | ||
| OF - | ||
| Total | $84,433,332 |
Adding 2 relievers, 3 bench spots, a 1B, a pair of relievers, and deciding what to do with both the starting pitching surplus and Schafer and Heyward are what Frank Wren has left to accomplish this off-season, along with any extensions and other normal off-season business, and Frank Wren has $12 million to accomplish this, plus whatever money he saves by parting with a starter. He’s in a pretty good position.
Overall, I don’t hate this move as much as I normally hate signing FA relievers, but I do realize that, even with all the implicit discounts the Braves received, $7 million is a lot of money for a reliever. Pit the health and aging risks and draft pick lost against the upside and the financial discount (though it’s still a fairly high price. Instead of buying a new Bentley, the Braves bought a refurbished one, that comes with some risk of break-down, but doesn’t cost as much as a new Bentley. Still, it costs a great deal more than a Nissan Maxima, which probably gets the job done well enough), and I think it’s a fairly decent signing. JC Bradbury of Sabernomics has Wagner valued at $8 million/season on an average team, so there’s at least a chance the Braves get full return on their investment, which is all you can really hope for when you’re dealing with free agent relievers.
From a purely baseball standpoint, this is a great move. If Billy Wagner is healthy and experiences no aging effects, the Braves have one hell of a reliever on their squad.
I don’t think this move will prevent Frank Wren from accomplishing anything else he needs to this off-season. I’d like it a lot less if this weren’t the case. I’ve always said that bullpen comes last, but when you have an opportunity to get a guy as talented as Wagner at a financial discount, you’re probably best served to go ahead and do it.
Wagner has been linked to the Braves for awhile now and it’s always made a great deal of sense. He’s a southerner and has always wanted to play for Bobby Cox, the Braves are parting ways with two dominant relievers and need to fill the void.
Perhaps Frank Wren could’ve built a better bullpen and spent less money by signing a few buy-low types, but it sure is nice to have the closer taken care of. And even though spending $7 million on a closer isn’t exactly the smartest thing a mid-market team could do, it’s at least nice to know that the Braves won’t be doing something incredibly stupid like signing Jose Valverde to a 3 year, $30 million contract.
Update: Mark Bowman tweets that Billy Wagner passed his physical and the Braves have scheduled a press conference. All but official now.
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[...] http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=1463Still, it costs a great deal more than a Nissan Maxima, which probably gets the job done well enough), and I think it’s a fairly decent signing. JC Bradbury of Sabernomics has Wagner valued at $8 million/season on an average team, … [...]
I think some of your salaries are a little bit off. I have Kawakami at $6.667 million (his bonus was paid up front), Chipper at $14 million (accounting for his bonus), and Infante at $2.225+ million. On Hudson, I don’t know whether or not the Braves had to pay him that $1 million buyout under the previous deal.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Capitol Avenue Club. Capitol Avenue Club said: Billy Wagner signing analysis RT @bravesbuzztap Capital Avenue Club >> Braves Add a Future HOF’er http://bit.ly/4Ejdmy [...]
here’s a 2007 billy wagner memory i have from a trip to turner field. he loaded the bases with nobody out and still didnt give up a run. pretty scary but in the end impressive.
so about that first round draft pick–how many end up working out anyway? i’m no expert but isn’t it true that the real treasures come from the lower rounds where having great scouting and player development separate the good teams from the bad…like marlins vs pirates etc?
Stu,
You’re right about the salaries. I have a spreadsheet with all of these salaries saved and I had some errors therein when I originally made it. I keep going to the wrong numbers out of habit. I’ll fix them.
Mike,
The ole Houdini? That’s pretty awesome. I love to see a good Houdini.
Mike,
The average value, in baseball terms, of a high draft pick is much, much higher than a lower draft pick. Now, you’re right in that the good systems distinguish themselves by getting much better value from the lower picks than the bad systems do, but pretty much everybody gets good value from high picks.
Does that make sense?
According to Sky, the average value for a 20th overall pick is ~4.4 Wins Above Replacement. Subtract slot, salaries, etc.. and it comes out to about $10 million in excess value, 2009 dollars.
No way Moylan only makes 1.5M next year…
Why?
Peter, on BeavesJournal you proffered Jake Fox as a replacement idea for Lee if we were to trade for him.
Made me go look.
Fox is a better hitter than i realised.
His OPS went up every year in the minors: .787, .801, .813, .864, .921, 1.336 (in 45 AAA games), .779 in Chicago this year. Heading into age 27 season.
Lee suddenly looks more realistic a target.
But i’d hope that we’d aim to get more for any pitching asset, even if the return in year 1 isn’t the equivalent of Lee.
According to Cots Baseball Contracts(http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tujElf32-2d237jk3IzWLsg&output=html)
Moylan isn’t arbitration eligible until 2011. So I’d assume he’d still be below a million. Could be wrong though.
The spreadsheet indicates Moylan is arbitration eligible for the 2nd time in 2011 (arb 2). They’ve left the 2010 salaries blank but Moylan is, in fact, eligible for arbitration in 2010.
Damn it, These Cot’s Contracts thing is bullhockey!
Sorry Peter
Haha it’s alright man. Those spreadsheets are confusing.
They’re not as confusing as much as they are wrong…
In 2007, The Braves won 84 games. As a result the ownership granted a $102,365,683 payroll. This season they won 86 games and have more potential to win in the future than they did in 2007.
Is it fair to hope that Liberty grants a $100M+ payroll?
Different economic conditions. The only reason they bumped payroll in 2008 was to account for Teixeira’s massive salary. Wren had to do things like ship Joey Devine for Kotsay and most of his salary that off-season as a result (another reason the Tex trade is far worse than people think), because they didn’t have the money to sign Mike Cameron. 2008 was also a year where a couple of bad contracts really caught up with the Braves. Mike Hampton’s $15 million salary was particularly bad, along with Smoltz, Hudson, and the ill-advised Glavine signing taking up a large portion of the payroll. Not all of this the Braves paid, a lot of it was insurance.
I think I’ve decided that I’d be pissed if the Braves signed any other reliever on the market to this deal, save Gonzalez/Soriano. And Soriano/Gonzalez are going to get better deals. Like I said, perhaps Wren could’ve been patient and found a few diamonds in the rough, but having this taken care of–and taken care of with a relatively predictable commodity. We’re talking relievers here, you’re not going to find the next Hank Aaron or Cal Ripken–already is probably worth any potential upside you sacrifice.
I think trading a starting pitcher comes next. I think it’ll be Lowe, for nothing of value, or Magglio Ordonez.
Sadly, we haven’t heard progress in the Lowe – Maggs talk, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t. Do you think Matt Diaz makes closer to 2 mil or 3 mil? Never the less, the payroll should be increased by at least 5%. I think the next move is acquiring a 1B, through market or trade. Also, your roster has 26 players on it.
The Lowe market has probably been hurt by the number of starters not offered arb. Randy Wolf, Garland, Marquis. IF they had draft picks hanging around their necks, then Lowe (EVEN WITH THE FULL CONTRACT) is probably the second best option after Lackey (not assuming Halladay or some other potential trade). Now, I think you have to pay to get rid of him (and I REALLY don’t think the Braves will do that) or take back a bad contract.
But Lowe for Magglio doesn’t really make sense. Why would the Tigers want Lowe? I guess in that bad idvision, even with them shedding payroll, Lowe might be enough to get them in the postseason.
I still think if Derrek Lee would waive no trade that Lowe for Derrek Lee and Bradley and 5 million would make sense for both sides. Cubs could slot Fox at first. They probably need a 2-3 type starter anyway and are going to pay 10 a year for 3 years or more anyway and they could make up the offense in another signing.
The Tigers had 12 pitchers make a start for them in 2010. They need some sort of rotation stability behind Verlander/Jackson/Porcell, be it Lowe or whoever.
I don’t think the arbitration decisions have much impact on Lowe’s market. Lowe’s still a great deal better than Wolf, Garland, and Marquis, even given his down year.
Agree on Lowe’s value.
I was all for us geting Games Bradley last year, but i’ve realised just how terribly wrong I was. I can’t imagine us agreeing to take him. That’s a young skipper move.
I don’t think Maggli makes us appreciably better. Even if he does just fill in around the OF and/or 1B. But I haven’t looked at him closely enough to be sure, who knows, maybe he’d be better in the weaker league?
I’d rather we trade Kawakami to the Dodgers for a reliever, maybe an MiLB piece to go with it. Maybe Sherrill, even. They seem broke and need innings, Kawakami won’t make that much more than Sherrill.
Ugh. Now we sign Saito?
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/
Saito Tranny blog is up.