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The ’10 Braves — Relievers
By Capitol Avenue Club | January 30, 2010
Many fans feared for the state of the 2010 bullpen early in the off season, given the all but certain departures of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano and all the subsequent uncertainty. However, Frank Wren clearly made this a top priority for his off-season, acquiring four relievers over its course, including two via trade (Jesse Chavez and Michael Dunn) and two via free agency (Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito). He imported more than he lost (Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Boone Logan), and the new additions along with the promising and fully healthy core (Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen, and Eric O’Flaherty), should make for an even better bullpen in 2010.
People always say, “it’s good to have a hall of famer on your team”. I don’t know that that’s true, necessarily, however the Braves certainly have one, Chipper Jones, and they’re extremely lucky to have him. They probably added another this off season in Billy Wagner (whose merits for the hall of fame are up to debate and I don’t do hall of fame debates). He brings that sort of hall of fame worth pedigree to your team, sure, but he also happens to be really good at what he does–pitch mostly short relief in high leverage situations (or just period). Some are concerned about his health, given he had a rehab themed season in 2009. However, he’s already returned to action and by the time pitchers and catchers report he’ll be eighteen months removed from his tommy john surgery. I mentioned he’s returned to action, and in case you missed it, he pitched extremely well. During his time with the Mets and the Red Sox during the 2009 regular season he faced sixty three total batters. Twenty six of them struck out, eight walked, eight managed a hit, one was hit by a pitch, two sacrificed, and eighteen recorded an out on a ball in play. His average fastball velocity was 94.2 miles per hour and his slider was worth 2.8 runs above average in only 15 and 2/3 innings. I think it’s safe to say he’s back and fully healthy, having not missed a beat. Actually, I see the fact that he hasn’t pitched but just short of sixteen innings in the past year as a tremendous advantage. I’m a believer in the cumulative-reset theory of injury and steep decline, I guess.
Takashi Saito might be the one that concerns me the most. He had a 2.43 ERA in 2009 with Boston, but that ERA was somewhat of a delusion. His 52-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio is poor for a late innings reliever in itself, and batters managed fifty hits in 55 and 2/3 innings and a .701 OPS off of him in 2009 on account of twelve extra base hits, including six homers. Best explanation for his 2.43 ERA is the absurd 89.4 left on base percentage. That’s not a repeatable skill, that’s luck, and unless Takashi Saito gets fundamentally better or lucky again, he’s not going to post a 2.43 ERA. He allowed a lot more fly balls in 2009 than he traditionally had and his slider wasn’t as effective as it had been for his career to that point. I’d expect regression, but he did have a sort of rehab themed season in 2009, so it’s possible that he’s just now fully healthy and will fundamentally improve in 2010. I don’t know how likely that is for a forty year old, though. I didn’t watch him pitch in 2009, but the fact that his average leverage index in 2009 was 0.67 suggests the Red Sox trusted him about as much as I do–that is, not at all. The Braves are expecting Saito to be a viable late innings option. I don’t think they can really count on him for that. I’m also worried about Bobby’s usage patterns and Saito. A forty year old with recent injury history probably won’t be able to stand the kind of abuse Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano endured last year.
Peter Moylan came back from tommy john surgery at least a month ahead of schedule in 2009 and made the team out of spring training, something that was virtually unprecedented. He struggled a bit early on, but during July, August, September, and October, he posted a 1.80 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 36-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42 and 2/3 innings. He’s been labeled a ground ball specialist, something he certainly excels at, having posted a career 1.66 GB/FB ratio, but that label is usually reserved for someone who doesn’t do much else well, and Moylan is certainly not that person. Left handers have always hit him (.263/.375/.355) better than right handers (.210/.269/.300), so the Braves will probably use him as a set up man, but I still think he’s good enough to be a closer for someone some day.
If there’s another guy in the bullpen that worries me, it’s Eric O’Flaherty. Not just because of what he can and can’t do, but because of what the organization may expect him to do–pitch complete innings. Eric O’Flaherty was claimed off waivers last winter in hopes that his previous major league results were an aberration due to injury. He pitched well for the Braves in 2010, posting a 3.04 ERA, a 1.243 WHIP, and a 39-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, he was used primarily as a left-handed specialist, seeing nearly fifty per cent (116 of 236) of the batters he faced hit left-handed. He was extremely effective against them, posting a 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but much less effective against right handers, posting a 15-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He throws a sinker, a slider with good tilt and little depth, and a change-up–which he threw more than any other time in his career in 2009. Posted the highest GB/FB ratio of his career in 2009–1.22. He’s plenty good enough to be a late innings left handed specialist, but probably not good enough against right handers to be an otherwise viable set up man.
The “long man” is what Kris Medlen’s title will presumably be, though he’s probably a better pitcher than any of the late innings group apart from Billy Wagner. Medlen reminds me a lot of Javier Vazquez–a generally hittable control pitcher who racks up a ton of K’s and issues few free passes. The generally hittable part seems to irritate people in general, but it’s still immensely valuable. Many would make a pretty good argument that he belongs in the rotation. I can’t really disagree, but that doesn’t seem like an option. His ’09 stats aren’t the prettiest in the world, but he was very good as a reliever and posted a higher strikeout rate than Tommy Hanson in ’09. His change up is his best pitch, he also throws a low-90′s fastball, a slider, and a curveball. He’s a future starter and will step in if any of the starters succumb to injury or shitty performance, but for now, he’ll be in the bullpen. Seems like the type that can step in and pick up a twelve out save or something. The quality 6th starter is the biggest utility he brings to the Braves, but I’m confident he could flourish as a late innings reliever.
I must confess that I know little about Jesse Chavez. That’s what happens when you stick a fairly unremarkable reliever in Pittsburgh for seven years. He’ll be twenty six years old next season and still has little MLB experience, only 82 and 1/3 innings. His AAA stats are good and his stuff is decent at worst. He throws hard, averaging around 94-95 MPH with his fastball, and he throws a plus slider and a change up that can be above average at times. His fastball moves, well, not at all, so people tend to predict lots of fly balls and, thus, lots of home runs from him. He should strike out enough batters to warrant a roster spot. His game needs to improve to become anything more than a junk innings guy, but the Braves have a need there, and it’s better to use a guy with some upside in that role than the other alternatives.
The seventh spot in the bullpen is mostly up for grabs. Some candidates:
Jo Jo Reyes – You know about him, but I’m not ready to give up on him, and neither is the organization.
Manny Acosta – I’m not ready to give up on him, either. Filthy stuff.
Michael Dunn – Hard throwing lefty, not a lot of mileage on his arm, walks way too many batters.
Craig Kimbrel – The right-handed Billy Wagner according to Frank Wren. His control doesn’t even exist, I don’t think. Plus Plus stuff.
Lee Hyde – Good enough to pitch out of a bullpen right now. Throws a fastball with plus velocity and a knuckle curve. There’s a solid, if unremarkable, future for this kid.
Luis Valdez – He’ll be twenty six next season, but he’s kicked ass as a reliever at AA and AAA for the past two seasons. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see him in the bigs.
Todd Redmond – The proverbial “junk innings and emergency starter if Medlen is forced to join the rotation full time” guy. I can’t imagine a scenario in which Todd Redmond joins the team and makes it better.
Scott Proctor – The one I always forget and almost did just now. Had success with the Yankees. He’ll be 33 years old next season, coming off a year which he missed entirely due to injury. Anything the Braves get from Proctor is gravy, but he’s a nice upside play.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 2 Comments »
February 1st, 2010 at 12:28 PM
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February 3rd, 2010 at 9:53 AM
I agree whole heartedly about Saito. Wagner was a good signing for an acceptable cost, but I wasn’t crazy to see the Saito move. I watched several Boston games where he pitched, and he seemed like a poster boy for the “better lucky than good” slogan. He could surprise me, but given his age and recent peripherals, he seems like a strong candidate to break down and/or underperform. And while I was a fan of grabbing Wagner, pairing him with Saito means that the top two late innings guys will be 39 and 40 by mid summer.
Luckily, if disaster does strike, the Braves have Peter Moylan. I’m not sure there’s a team in the league that wouldn’t enjoy the luxury of having Moylan start the season third-in-line for saves.
Will Proctor be healthy going into Spring Training? I’m intrigued to get a look at Chavez. I think this is a make-or-break year for Acosta, if he’s going to become a contributor of any significance. Reyes is one I have my eye on, yet again. Ideally, the bullpen could use another lefty besides O’Flaherty (with Wagner closing, obviously). Reyes would seem preferable to Dunn, though the latter might have the inside edge early on. Hyde will also surely get his shot sometime this year.
Right now, I’d say it’s a solidly good bullpen overall. Like most things on this Braves team, it could be great with the right breaks, or struggle with the wrong ones.