Gonzalez, not Beltre
February 17, 2010 at 10:14 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
I suppose I’ll have to write this article at some point, so I might as well go ahead and do it now.
Unless something goes horribly wrong in Kansas City and Billy Butler is made available, or the same happens in Cincinnati and Joey Votto is made available, or some similar situation occurs with another team, Adrian Gonzalez is extremely likely to be not only the best first baseman or position player, but generally the best player and the most favorable contract available on the trade market this season. If Adrian Gonzalez gets moved it will probably be the biggest trade of the year and immediately goes into the conversation for the top trades of the still very young decade. Given the Braves position on the win curve, the way their current roster is constructed, and the fact that there’s a good chance first base help will be the club’s top priority if they’re looking to upgrade mid-season, Adrian Gonzalez is the logical starting point–no matter how much we like it or not.
First, let me talk briefly about each of the previous parameters I mentioned. Their position on the win curve makes adding a few wins immensely valuable. Making the playoffs is worth, on average, about $40 million to a franchise, and the Braves are at the point on the win curve in which adding a few more wins makes them disproportionately more likely to make the post season. The difference between a 69 win team and a 71 win team is nothing, the difference between an 86 win team and an 88 win team is often the difference between making the post season tournament and not. Most everyone reading this is familiar with this concept, though don’t feel bad if you aren’t. I talked about the way they’ve set up their roster here and I have nothing more to add.
The third one there’s not much of a theoretical or mathematical basis for, it’s just common sense based on the way the roster is set up. The Braves have an elite player at SS, 3B, and C. If one of those guys goes down long term, it’s probably stupid to try to chase a playoff berth. They have steady above-average regulars at 2B and, by mid season, probably all three outfield positions, assuming Schafer and Heyward are with the club or aren’t too far away from making it. The only non-negligible injury risk of the group is Chipper Jones, and there’s inherent depth at that position. If Chipper goes down long term, I think the team is better off with Troy Glaus at 3B than 1B, given it’s a lot more likely he’ll hit as much or more than the average 3B than the average 1B and he’s good enough defensively there.
I’ve already brought up Glaus and sort of alluded to my point. Point number one, there’s a non-zero chance Glaus injures himself or turns into Richie Sexson, who hit .211/.306/.392 in 818 PA’s during his age 32 and 33 seasons (Troy Glaus is 33 years old next season). If that happens, the organization is left with Eric Hinske as their every day 1B, which is very bad. Point number two, there’s a non-zero, and perhaps much greater, chance that Glause turns into David Ortiz, who hit .238/.332/.462 in 627 PA’s (wow, Francona might be an idiot) last season. That’s not particularly useful at 1B, but in 2009 the average NL third baseman hit .261/.333/.419/, so Glaus is still more than useful if he turns into David Ortiz, as perhaps a platoon option at 1B, the reserve third baseman, a pinch hitter, and the ever valuable Chipper insurance. Even if he hits a ton, something like .270/.360/.490, and Chipper gets injured, I think it’s still a lot more logical to play Glaus at 3B and do something about 1B.
So, basically, unless Chipper and Glaus both stay completely healthy and plenty productive, the organization stands to gain quite a bit by upgrading 1B. I can’t envision a scenario in which the outfield is a higher priority, nor can I envision one in which 2B, SS, C, or 3B is a higher priority and the Braves are still remotely close to in the race. That’s not to say one won’t arise, but when considering the probability of it all, every time I look at this thing I get to first base or nothing.
The pitching staff figures to be rock solid, and I figure if a starter or two goes down, the organization probably stands to gain more by bringing John Smoltz or Pedro Martinez on than trading prospects for a starter. Relievers are fungible and there’s plenty of organizational depth there, mostly comprised of legit prospects rather than AAA veterans.
So, if the team wants to get better at the deadline and first base is the most logical position to upgrade and the best player presumably available at the trade deadline happens to be a first baseman, well, if I’m Frank Wren, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least look into it. Even if it’s just due diligence, said diligence is due. And, since this website is dedicated mostly to discussing everything that goes on upstairs at 755 Hank Aaron Drive, it makes sense for me to go ahead and write this article. To my knowledge, this topic hasn’t been examined from a Braves point of view. I intend to completely exhaust the subject.
Here are my thoughts.
Sounds like another Teixeira trade.
How similar these two players are, in terms of value, heading into their last two pre-FA seasons, is rather frightening. It doesn’t just sound like another Teixeira trade, it is another Teixeira trade. First of all, the similarities between the two.
- They’re elite first basemen with two years of club control left.
- They’re both relatively young (the year Teixeira was dealt he was 27 years old, Adrian Gonzalez will be 28 years old in May).
- They both have at least solid defensive reputations.
- They both have elite plate discipline.
- They both have tremendous power.
They don’t match up especially well on B-R’s comps (based on similarity scores by Bill James), but in terms of value, they’re extremely close. Here’s a chart of their +/-, wOBA, and pWAR (WAR based on +/- rather than UZR), I apologize for the lack of readability here:
You can play around with the numbers, but every time we get basically the same result–too close to call. So, it’s only natural to think of this in terms of the Teixeira trade. Given Beau Jones is basically worthless and Ron Mahay provided very little value, I’m going to refer to the trade and evaluate it as Mark Teixeira for Neftali Feliz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, and Neftali Feliz Elvis Andrus.
If you don’t study the past, you’ll make the same mistakes again, so let’s take a look back to July of 2007. The Braves acquired two months of Mark Teixeira in 2007 at the price of $3 million, plus six months of Mark Teixeira in 2008 at a salary to be determined later via salary arbitration rules (Teixeira and the Braves eventually agreed to a $12.5 million salary). Over those two months in 2007, Teixeira produced 2.1 wins. Over his 6 months with the Braves and Angels in 2008, he produced 6.8 wins. I’ve got a thing for that, but first we need to tweak the parameters a little bit.
First of all, this trade took place in 2007, not 2010, when teams still paid closer to $4.5 million per win and economists penciled in a twelve per cent rate of return automatically. Now, ignoring what happened after the trade (the next trade, etc.) and thinking of this only as a swap of Mark Teixeira’s surplus value over the life of his contract for the four prospects, here’s the quantification of the resources swapped:
It’s easy to say the Braves over paid here, but it’s hardly out of character for teams to over pay for premium talent on the trade market, given the demand is so incredibly high and the supply is so low. The Teixeira trade was a blunder because it was made while the Braves could have done a lot more by adding a starting pitcher rather than a first baseman, not because the Braves over paid. Which they did, don’t get me wrong, but not by as much as some would have you think.
Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez do have their differences, Gonzalez is owed only $10.25 million over the next two years, whereas Teixeira was paid a combined $21.5 million in 2007 and 2008. Teixeira was a year younger and arguably had more upside. There are many other factors, but like I said, they’re basically the same in terms of value. Here’s basically what Adrian Gonzalez’s trade value would be if he was on the market at the same time as Teixeira was when he was dealt to the Braves and had accomplished everything he has as of Feb 17, 2010:
I bring this up only to again highlight the similarities between the players. In this light, I think the formula we basically have to go by is that of the Teixeira trade. A 26-50 prospect, a 51-75 prospect, a 76-100 prospect, and a lottery ticket. I have a feeling that the Padres will demand something they can use right now, something close to or on the 40-man roster, presumably in the form of one of the three 26-100 prospects.
Scanning the 40-man roster and prospects in the upper minors, the group of good, young players that are also useful close to now is comprised of Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Craig Kimbrel, and Jair Jurrjens. Lee Hyde, Michael Dunn, and Jose Ortegano are also considered useful close to now, though certainly don’t possess the value of a top 26-100 prospect. Obviously the Braves aren’t going to trade Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, or Jair Jurrjens. I’d hope they think the same about Jordan Schafer. Though I’d rather trade Craig Kimbrel than Kris Medlen, given Medlen’s higher floor and potential use as a starter, I figure the Padres would require Medlen, rather than Kimbrel, in a hypothetical Adrian Gonzalez trade. Medlen seems more like a Hoyer-ish player, anyway. So, it’s appropriate to look at Kris Medlen’s trade value to the Padres and Braves (if he’s traded mid-season, we’re using mid-season as our reference point, by the way). To the Padres:
And to the Braves:
He’s basically the equivalent of Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the Teixeira trade. He’d be close to that valuable under the $4.5 M/W paradigm.
Next, add a pair of top-100 prospects and a lottery ticket. A table with the Braves prospects and their value (based on Victor Wang’s work, summarized here, adjusted for the current economic conditions):
They’re obviously not trading Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman. One of Arodys Vizcaino and Julio Teheran has to go. It’s not particularly important which one, personally I’d rather keep Teheran than Vizcaino, but they’re equally valuable. The only player that matches Matt Harrison in the 76-100 prospect department is Randall Delgado, but I think the Braves could get around including him by including a fairly good lottery ticket, an B pitcher, and something else useful close to now–presumably one of the relievers. Again, it doesn’t much matter which lottery ticket they include, either Tyler Stovall, Andy Otero, Cole Rohrbough, Robinson Lopez, or Brett DeVall, from the Braves perspective. Lopez, Stovall, and Otero provide more upside, and Lopez is probably the best of the trio, and considering the lottery ticket portion of the package is one of the places I’m most flexible, I’d be willing to include Robinson Lopez. Between Zeke Spruill, Christian Bethancourt, Mike Minor, and Craig Kimbrel, Spruill seems like the best fit for this package. I wouldn’t give Bethancourt away just yet, and I believe the Padres would pick Spruill over Kimbrel or Minor–who isn’t eligible to be traded until some point in August and I don’t believe the Braves would trade, anyway.
Finally, for the last piece of the package, Scott Diamond, Jose Ortegano, Michael Dunn, Lee Hyde, and Brandon Hicks all make at least some sense. I’m putting Lee Hyde down, but, again, it’s not particularly important. The type of player and the value they bring to the franchise is.
And, so, this is what the package looks like:
That’s basically what the organization is going to have to give up to get Adrian Gonzalez. It’s no small price, five legitimate pitching prospects (well, four, but Medlen is close enough to being a prospect). Such a move would knock the Braves’ farm system’s value ranking from 3rd overall to 13th overall, between that of the Royals and the Mets, in addition to stripping away a young, cheap, solid-above-average starter off the active roster. That’s the price teams pay for premium talent, though, and this is an illustration of the value of that elite player:
I did not write this article with the intent of coming to a conclusion, it’s simply an exploratory exercise to determine how much it would cost. It’s impossible to tell right now whether or not it will be a good decision four or five months from now, but if the Braves are in the playoff hunt at that point and their 1B or 3B production leaves something to desired, they’ll all but have to at least consider making a play Adrian Gonzalez. So, knowing about how much it’s going to take to get him is going to be useful information, at some point.
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In my ‘oblivious to rational judgement or influenced by reasoning’ view, even if the Braves had won the series in 2007, it would still pinch me every time Elvis got a hit or Felix struck a guy out. I’m the type of person that would give up a couple of championships in the next few years to see the Braves win three or four in the 2040′s. Also, I don’t know how to explain it, but part of me just becomes emotionally invested in a player, regardless of returns in trades or payroll clearance- seeing Yunel and Jair traded for, say, even Pujols would still sting a little inside.
But I’m probably an idiot.
Great write-up, as usual and as expected, P.W. Gotta find a way to bring more traffic to this blog- your analysis and perception is almost starting to beat the strong value of the community over there at Braves Journal.
I think the Braves trade for Texeira marks sort of a “high water mark” in value of prospects put out for proven pre FA talent. That is, look at the other deals just before and all of the deals after. I think you overestimate the likely cost of acquring A. Gon.
All markets are ultimately driven by demand and supply. Realistically, the Red Sox had a good match up for a trade with San Diego to get A. Gon. Almost nobody else (other than the Braves) does. Yankees have too many 1B / DH types at big salaries in their system. Lots of teams are on the wrong end of rebuilding efforts (Nats, Pirates, Astros, Royals [other than the Pirates, do any of these even have any decent prospects?]). Some are obsessed with low cost and wouldn’t swap the low cost of bunches of near ML players for a player under control for 2 years (A’s, Marlins). And, right now, the Red Sox are overloaded a little until they move or release Lowell (which might be the Braves move if they get the problem you described. If Lowell is doing o.k. then the Braves might get him for a song).
I think San Diego has misplayed its hand. They should have announced they were taking offers in the offseason. Then, teams wouldn’t have been working their rosters around in ways that make the move to get A. Gon unreasonable. Even though I agree that events could snowball into this being a good move for the Braves, there were lots of teams looking for 1B’s in the offseason who will not be looking for them at mid season.
Also, the Braves do have another option. If Freeman goes to AA or AAA until July 15 and does a 280 / 360 / 480 or so, then they would call him up to cover for a Chipper or Glaus injury or non performance.
Also, because of Freeman, shouldn’t the Braves be trying to be in (may have burned bridges earlier when he was in the organization one or both ways) on Russell Branyan? Indians are offering playing time and that might kill any interest. However, he could be the back up at first and the “bat” off the bench.
Our long term need is worse at 3B than at 1B (although I am having difficulty coming up with a proven player that matches up at third and certainly no one as good as A. Gon.) But, given Freeman in the org, I would try to cover a Glaus / Chipper problem at 3rd, if at all practical. Also, our bat needs to be righthanded. Now, A. Gon is plenty good enough to avoid making that distinction, BUT ALL OTHER THINGS EQUAL, this team needs a long term righthanded or switch hitting bat of note (lefties McCann, Heyward, Schafer, McLouth, Freeman). Brandon Hicks and Cody Johnson are the only possible guys within 2 years of ML with seemingly any chance to hit from the right side well. And, even at “ceiling” neither of those guys is a “5 win player.”
I don’t think left is the problem that needs a trade fix. Two of Diaz / Melky / McLouth for this year and one more, even with arb going up, is probably about as good as what you can find in FA or by trade (unless you “gut the system”).
cliff your point is well made. i think cody johnson is a lefty also which makes it even more true
Very fun, you guys! Makes me want to buy the place. And congrats on gentitg to use the word “neophyte” in conversation. Can’t wait to watch the new house go up. I might even be compelled to pick a tool or two.
Thanks for the great article; these are exactly my favorite kinds of hypothetical’s to think about. I think there’s another way that the Braves could use a trade to try to contend in the short term. They could target a player in his last year of arbitration or last year of a contract. I think this becomes even more likely if the organization feels they need to avoid a repeat of the Teixeira trade at all costs. This would allow the team to target a player with star level impact without “selling the farm.” Here are a few big names that come to mind—provided their respective clubs are out of contention and willing to deal by the trade deadline—Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, Carl Crawford (if the outfield doesn’t work itself out in a satisfactory manner), Ben Sheets (if Jurrjens or another starter goes down and Medlen doesn’t cut it). Of course any of these players would cost a significant amount more than Gonzalez next year, so that would be another factor to consider.
This is all daydreaming, because…
a) The Braves don’t need AG.
They have a first baseman in Glauss, and another one waiting in Freeman.
b) The Braves don’t want AG.
That’s because of a), right? If they had any interest in him, why would they wait until midseason to get those 2 extra wins?? They could have offered your package during the offseason. Instead, they signed Glauss.
c) The Padres would never make that trade.
They will ask for MUCH more than Medlen and a couple of longshots. Two words: Jake Peavy!
Peter,
First of all… great article.
Trying to be a little pessimistic / realistic on the win curve… Where are the braves now in 2010 Vs. where were the braves in the Tex trade?
I believe, when doing i trade like this, you have to be extremely honest with the risk that you are taking. I know that certain risks are a necessity for any winning team, but some appear more logical than others.
Are the 2010 braves ready to compete for a playoff spot without any other upgrades? What is the “window” of opportunity for this team?
I don’t know the answer to the 1st question… a lot of projections have the braves at the 84 – 88 win plateau. Is that enough? I don’t know.
The 2nd question depends on Chipper’s health, Heyward’s development, Hanson’s development, Yunel’s progression, Brian’s vision, etc.
What is your mindset?… do you think the time to take a big risk is now?
Cliff,
I do see your point about Teixeira’s cost being a high water mark, but I did account for that somewhat. For instance, the package I proposed is theoretically only worth about thirty per cent more than the surplus value of Adrian Gonzalez’s contract, whereas the package for Teixeira was closer to forty five per cent more valuable. Also, the Braves traded 3 top-100 prospects for Teixeira, this package includes only two (and that’s counting Medlen as a top-100 prospect).
Additionally, the Red Sox have an elite farm system, and if both the Sox and Braves are squarely in the bidding, I could see Adrian Gonzalez going for even more than I’ve allocated.
Really, if the Sox/Braves get into a bidding war, it’s going to come down to what the Padres want. If they’re interested in pitching prospects, the Braves can throw five legit pitching prospects their way and not see their depth completely evaporate. If they’re interested in position player prospects, the Braves have no chance of matching up with the Red Sox without including Yunel or Heyward.
Guillermo/7,
We’ll know more in June/July, obviously, but I don’t have a very good answer for you.
Frank/6,
a) Yeah, but what are the chances Glaus and Chipper are both healthy and productive (for their position) all year? I don’t know, not nearly as high as I’d like. And I doubt Freeman is ready to contribute to a MLB team in 2010.
b) That’s a silly thing to say. Nearly every team wants Gonzalez. It’s just a matter of cost. Also, the package I suggested was for a mid-season trade. Adrian Gonzalez is more valuable if you’re getting him for two complete years, thus requires more prospect value. Third, whose to say they didn’t? Fourth, whose to say he was even available this off season? We have no way of knowing these things if we don’t work in the industry. Just because we haven’t heard about a team’s interest doesn’t mean they aren’t interested.
c) Why not? It makes good economic and baseball sense for them.
desert/1,
I’ll always be a huge fan of the Braves Journal community. I can’t replace that, and I don’t intend to. There’s a need for both, I think.
Cliff/2,
Also, yeah, I think the Padres over played their hand as well. The thing is, if you’re looking at trading a guy like that because he’s so good you can’t afford him, it’s usually always beneficial to do it immediately–go ahead and take the best package. Because, realistically, when do packages ever get better with time? They don’t. They get worse because the other team gets less service out of the player.
As for the #3, I don’t know that Branyan is much of an upgrade over Hinske.
harrison/5,
Yeah, that’s true. I’m certainly not married to the idea or even in support of or an Adrian Gonzalez trade, just starting the conversation.
Frank,
As to your c): The Padres have changed GM’s since the Peavy thing. Hoyer is very clued in to value measures similar to Peter’s. By July 1 it will be plainly evident that the 2 wins (they have Blanks to move and assuming they can get 1 win in OF from somewhere cheap) they will gain mihgt make the difference between 67 wins and 69 wins and that they need to make a move.
Peter,
I am assuming that if the Red Sox are “all in” that the Braves are out. We can’t afford to do what it will take to make it happen. And, I agree that we don’t have many position players at all and recognize that Freeman is almost useless to them (with one of the reasons for the Padres to move A. Gon being that Blanks can mvoe there and otherwise they have to let him lumber in the outfield). To me, Schafer looked like a “good fit” player for them.
Also, who is out there in baseball land that plays third that might fit?
One thing about the Red Sox prospects in a hypothetical Adrian Gonzalez deal. They’re obviously not giving away Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, or Jose Iglesias and the rest of their top position players are OF/1B/DH types–Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Reddick, Reymond Fuentes, etc.. And they can’t match the elite pitching prospects the Braves have, so maybe that’s an advantage.
But I basically agree. If the Red Sox say, you can have anyone but Kelly, Westmoreland, or Iglesias, I don’t think the Braves could match/top them. And even if they could, I probably wouldn’t want them to.
We, obviously, don’t know the mindset of the padres Management… But, it’s silly to think that they wouldn’t demand a top tier mlb ready everyday player.
I don’t think pitching prospects will be enough for them. The braves would have to give up Schafer, and then some…
You may be right. I don’t know, the package makes sense to me, value-wise. Medlen’s no slouch.
This is probably not a good idea.
The Braves would not resign A-Gon at the kind of $$ he’ll be looking for, thus it would be a 1.5 year rental for a huge package of prospects. Remember the Red Sox already have put Buckholtz and two of their top prospects on the block for A-Gon, which probably makes sense for them because they have the money to sign him to a 180M contract extension. If he’s traded he’s going to the Red Sox.
There is a huge hole in the logic. SD don’t see Kris Medlen has that kind of value. Nobody considers him as a key trade bait. SD would ask top 2~4 (vizcaino, teheran and freeman) and more in Gonzo deal.
Peter, the padres are gonna ask for an unimaginable number of prospects in return. To what I understand right now, they only wanted a short term fix at 1B for Freddie Freeman not to be blocked. And after the Texeria trade turned out to be so disastrous I doubt they’d be willing to do it again unless they sign Adrian long term to assure he won’t leave. And given the Braves limited resources I seriously doubt they’d be able to do that. Adrian will look for a Texeira type contract.
Freeman is a good prospect, probably a year away. He is an excellent defender, and could very well hit 300 with 30 homers and a 100 RBI’s. If Chipper gets injured which he didn’t do last year, then Glaus, Prado, Infante, and Hinske should be enough backup.
You accidentally said Feliz twice instead of Andrus when recapping the Tex trade.
Very good and thorough breakdown of the possibility. My biggest question is whether the Padres would do a trade in which all the return is pitching; that part seems unrealistic to me. The quality and quantity of pitching in your potential package would be hard to turn down, but I can’t imagine Hoyer not insisting upon at least one highly to well-regarded position player position prospect.
Although this wasn’t the focus of your article, I also wonder if the eventual lack of return on Teixeira will make the Braves more hesitant to do an A-Gon trade. The easy answer is that one situation does not influence the other, not to mention a different organizational structure. But it’s probably naive to believe such thoughts wouldn’t enter their minds.
You’re trade proposal is good, but consider that all of them are pitchers. I’d bet they’d be looking for position players. They’d at least ask for Schafer.
Kris Medlen 18.2
Jordan Schafer 15(guessing)
Aroldys Vizcaino 12.4
TOTAL 45.6
for
Adrian Gonzalez 28.9
If the Red Sox feel the need for Gonzalez, I imagine that they would part with one of Iglesias, Kelly or Westmoreland. They have a huge advantage over the Braves in that they carry a high enough payroll that they don’t need their farm system to be as productive to remain competitive. Therefore, they can afford to trade away better pieces. When it comes down to it, if Gonzalez is available and the Red Sox really want him, I don’t think that the Braves will be able to beat their offer.
I don’t think this is the end of the world, however. If Chipper or Glaus goes down, but the D-Backs are out of it, we can always do what we did last year–and get a half-season Adam LaRoche rental. He’s no Adrian Gonzalez, but second-half LaRoche is a pretty good player. And he would cost far less in prospects.
The braves would trade freeman in a heartbeat if it got them gonzalez. Absolute best case scenario has Freeman living up to all of his potential, and he still would not come close to Agon’s numbers. Especially if Gonzalez is willing to sign long term, Freeman will be gone.
Cheaper idea that probably won’t happen, unless Pena makes it clear to the Rays that he intends to hit the open market: three team deal with the Rays and Padres where the Rays get Gonzalez, Braves get Carlos Pena.
I don’t hate the Teixeira trade as much as most.
We were in it to win it, had a real chance, with what looked like a window closing soon.
Salty was movable b/c we had McCann, w/ Flowers coming (what a Catcher pipeline they had! Javy, McCann, Max Ramirez, Salty, Flowers. Makes me think Bethancourt is going to have a big year this year).
Andrus was movable because we liked Escobar’s glove enough and bat more.
Jones was a bauble.
Feliz was live but young and slight.
Harrison they seemed to rate highly, wouldn’t include him in the Hudson trade, but don’t the Braves seem to have like 5 – 7 similar pitchers in the mid minors now?
Sure, thye gave up a lot, but I think that proves Peter’s point, that the value of moving up a few wins high on the curve is worth what might, in a vacuum, seem to be overpaying. And all of the players the Braves gave for Teixeira were from areas they could afford to weaken.
Plus I just love that they decided to go for it. Recognized they opportunity, took their shot, came up short, so be it.
At least they ponied up for the best player available at the time and gave themselves a chance. Encourages me that they might do so again and actually be in the AG discussion come late May.
Best thing we can hope for is a fast start from the Red Sox and a slow one from the Yankees.
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It could be our answer is Yunel at 3rd and bring up Hicks to play short. That’s if Chipper goes down or retires. This is for the future not right now.
David/19,
Thanks. I’ll update that now.
bill,
You’re seriously saying the Padres’ won’t consider a package that doesn’t include Heyward or Hanson? Are you a moron? (Yes.)
Of all the MLBTR comments that include people making definitive statements about things they clearly know nothing about, this one takes the cake as dumbest. Good job, asshole.
And guess what, you don’t get to insult me or my writing on my own fucking website, so your comment is deleted.
adam/22,
Adrian Gonzalez is a better player, no doubt, but he’s under team control for two more years and Freeman is under team control for six plus. If the Braves see Freeman as a long term solution at 1B, and I think they do, they’re probably not going to deal him for a stop gap.
Nevin&Cavebird,
Good points, thanks.
Peter,
Not sure about what Bill said (and the tone was probably out of bounds) but there appear to be a few teams that take the view (including San Diego last year under another GM) that “our best player only moves for your best prospect or bet player” and are almost insulted if the other team values the individual players more exactly by projection system type analysis.
You have come up with a core framework that could make sense for both parties (after much work). The response to a Padres assertion that they won’t trade unless Heyward is in the deal is to ask them to cal back if they decide to return to rationality.
Mahay did provide solid value…He netted us a sandwich pick (Brett Devall)
Peter,
Thanks for responding(29)! Its great to see your opinion on these comments. I would have to believe if the Braves were to trade for Gonzalez, they would only do so with the intention of keeping him long term. After being forced to deal Teixeira when he refused to sign an extension, the Braves would not want to face a similar situation. When the Braves first traded for Teixeira they had every intention of keeping him around. I believe they would want to do the same with Gonzalez. That is why I believe Freeman could be included in a possible deal.
Adam (and everybody else on this).
Of all of the Braves minor league pretty good players the one with THE LEAST POSSIBLE VALUE TO THEM is Freddie Freeman. The reason an A. Gon trade really won’t kill the Padres is they have Kyle Blanks ready to play first and he is playing a poor left field now (and either 5 or 6 cost controlled years left).
So, IF the Braves get A. Gon, Freeman may be traded. But it almost certainly will not be to the Padres.
Salient argument, Peter. Although it would be truly heartbreaking to see the Braves’ farm system drop to 13th place, just above the horrid Mets, I must admit that the thought of Agon hitting cleanup for the Braves down the stretch this year (just as Jason Heyward and perhaps Jordan Schafer start to really shine) has got to excite any Braves fan.
Final point: fangraphs is indicating that Agon isn’t very good defensively. He posted negative UZRs in 2007 and 2008, and posted a positive 3.8 last year. So he’s ok, but he’s no Tex. In which case maybe we can give up only 4 of those prospects?
(Maybe this point is invalidated if you’re of the belief that UZR is inadequate for measuring 1B’s.)
Yeah, I’ve never been impressed with advanced metrics WRT 1B. I always think a good ole fashioned scout’s eye is the best way to evaluate defense, but that’s especially true at 1B.
Dave/35,
UZR isn’t very high on Teixeira though, either. 1.7 RAA per 150.
Although I tend to agree that first base defense is really tough to quantify with a metric, at least as of yet – some big strides have been made in judging scooping throws and such, but they haven’t been incorporated into any major defensive measures that I’ve seen.
Peter and TCQ,
Thanks for the responses. I guess we’ll just stick with the scouts’ takes on AGon’s D, which range from very solid to excellent.
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