Roster Rounding & The Rest
March 29, 2010 at 4:35 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
The Braves have basically filled 22 roster spots with their 5 starting pitchers (Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Lowe, Kawakami), 5 relievers (Wagner, Saito, Moylan, O’Flaherty, Medlen), 8 starting position players (McCann, Glaus, Prado, Yunel, Chipper, Heyward, Melky/Diaz, McLouth), and 4 bench players (Ross, Diaz/Melky, Hinske, Infante). In keeping with the traditional Braves’ roster construction, the final three roster spots will probably go to two relievers and an infielder. Hinske, Diaz/Melky, and Infante provide the Braves all the OF bench depth they need, but the only guy on the bench that can play middle infield is Infante, they usually like to carry two bench guys that can play middle infield. Right now, Wagner and O’Flaherty are the only left handers in the bullpen. The Braves have gone with a 2-lefty (one being the closer) scheme before, but I think they’d prefer to have a third lefty in there.
There are two remaining candidates for the left handed reliever spot–Jo-Jo Reyes and Jonny Venters. Personally, I’d prefer Reyes to Venters, given he’s probably a better pitcher at this point, but I can see why the thought of Jo-Jo Reyes on the active roster would give some people (including some in the organization) nightmares. It could go either way. Reyes probably has the advantage at this point.
The fourth right hander in the bullpen will be one of Scott Proctor, Craig Kimbrel, Jesse Chavez, and Luis Valdez. I’ve detailed why it’s ill-advised to break camp with Proctor on the active roster, though the Braves don’t seem to share the sentiment. Craig Kimbrel is not ready, but given Luis Valdez’s Visa issues and Jesse Chavez’s horrific spring thus far, if Proctor isn’t healthy the Braves may opt to give Kimbrel the job. Like Proctor, Kimbrel isn’t on the active roster. I really liked Valdez to win the job going into camp, but as I alluded to, he missed a large portion of camp while stuck in the Dominican Republic trying to sort out his Visa issues. Even if he’s ready to go, I don’t see him making the roster, though I do believe we’ll see him in 2010. Right now I’m guessing the order of % chance they make the team (descending) is Proctor, Chavez, Kimbrel, Valdez, but I really don’t have much of an idea.
The stage has been set for a Joe Thurston vs. Brooks Conrad showdown all Spring. It was basically thought that the pair would do battle for the final bench spot, but, quietly, Brandon Hicks is still in camp. This could mean absolutely nothing, but Hicks is by far the best defender of the three and my personal preference. I looked at spring training stats for like the third time all year today. Brandon Hicks is 7-for-34 (.206 AVG) with 3 extra base hits (2 2B, 1 HR, .353 SLG%, .147 ISO) and five walks (.308 on base average, .294 secondary average) against eight strikeouts (.240 BABIP). I’ve only watched one spring game, but during it Hicks made an extremely rangy play to his right and delivered a solid throw to first on a grounder that would’ve gotten through the 5-6 hole even against some of the better MLB SS’s. The tools seem to be there, and he’s probably good enough to contribute on the bench of a big league team right now. I’ll even go so far as to say that right now, he’s more useful to the Braves than Joe Thurston or Brooks Conrad.
There’s two sides to this coin, though, and Brandon Hicks’ path to the big leagues this spring comes with two significant obstacles. One, Hicks is still (at least nominally) a prospect. There’s at least a chance he develops into an average regular. Until he proves he can’t do that, the Braves have plenty of incentive to keep him off the MLB team’s bench and in the minor leagues–where he can get regular playing time as opposed to a spot start here and there and a pinch running appearance a week. It’s better for his development, and if Brandon Hicks does turn into the player we want him to, we’ll be happy the Braves went with one of the older guys. Obstacle number two is the fact that Brandon Hicks isn’t on the 40-man roster. Then again, neither is Joe Thurston, and I can’t really decide which of Joe Thurston and Brooks Conrad is the better player (I lean towards Conrad), so I’d say fan favorite and picture of grission Brooks Conrad is probably the favorite to win that job, by merit of already being on the 40-man rather than competence. I’m really not too familiar with the organization’s thinking on this or any of the final roster spots, though. Don’t really care.
There has been some chatter about who will lead off. Seeing as I don’t expect the Braves to take my line up optimization piece to heart, the basic formula for the batting order will be something like:
1. Nate McLouth* – CF
2. Martin Prado – 2B
3. Chipper Jones# – 3B
4. Troy Glaus – 1B
5. Brian McCann* – C
6. Yunel Escobar – SS
7. Jason Heyward* – RF
8. Malky Caiz(#) – LF
9. Pitcher
Personally, I really don’t care if Heyward or Diaz or Melky or Escobar or Prado or McLouth leads off, I really don’t. In the long term, that spot belongs to Jordan Schafer and I’m anxious to see him, not one of the guys that’s going to make the team out of camp, lead off. In the mean time, I don’t really care. It’s an over rated role anyway, all six guys I mentioned seem more or less equally qualified, and line up optimization can only have so much impact (little). What I don’t like is when the organization sticks a below average hitter or two at the top of the order and stashes above-average ones at the bottom of the order. As long as the theme of better hitters hitting higher in the order is loosely adhered to (within reason, no .300 ISO guy leading off, obviously), I really couldn’t care less how they choose to arrange it. It’s a silly thing to get worked up over when you have eight presumably at least average hitters in your line up.
Apart from sorting out those issues, the only thing the Braves have left to do this week is get everyone healthy. Yunel Escobar has missed a few games and Jason Heyward has been resting with shin splints. The line up looks a lot worse with Omar Infante and both Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz playing every day (exposing their weak halves), so getting those guys healthy is probably the most important thing that will happen this week.
It’s been a long spring, everyone is tired, and opening day is less than a week away. The only people more anxious for the players to head north than us fans are the players themselves. It won’t be long before the runs count and the games mean something, and the Braves seem really well positioned to succeed all things considered. Here’s to a healthy and productive roster and another shot at a world championship.
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I just wanted to ad one thing about roster construction that I’m sure you are aware of but didn’t mention. The guys at the top of your order will have the most at bats in a season so you do want your best hitters to get the most at bats.
Right, that’s basically what I’m trying to say with this sentence: “As long as the theme of better hitters hitting higher in the order is loosely adhered to (within reason, no .300 ISO guy leading off, obviously), I really couldn’t care less how they choose to arrange it.”
Yeah, I’m kind of ‘blah’ about both Thurston and Conrad. Is the organization seriously *that* poor in depth in the middle infield? What does it look like at the lower levels?
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Do we really need another middle infielder? I know you probably agree with me (I think I remember reading you saying that in a previous post), but wouldn’t it be better to have a guy like Mitch Jones on the bench? Escobar and Prado aren’t going to need many days off, and Infante can cover when one needs a day off. If one gets hurt enough to be on the DL, Diory or Conrad or whoever is only a car ride away in Gwinnett. It would seem to be a better idea to have a good stick on the bench instead of another glove.
I would’ve liked to see Brent Clevlen make the team, but he didn’t hit much in camp, neither did Jones.
If there were a competent “professional hitter” to stick on the bench, I’d agree, but I don’t think it matters much if the Braves carry Brooks Conrad or Mitch Jones. And Conrad is already on the 40-man, so you might as well just use him.
At the risk of sounding redundant I’ll weigh in that the last spot on the bench heading into Opening Day isn’t a terribly important one.
Barring injury to two guys Thurston or Conrad won’t see the field more than once a week. Even if two guys do get injured you’d think (or hope) that by the time this occurred someone in the minors may separate themselves with a hot bat. Or perhaps if the injury is serious enough the Braves go out and pick someone up.
All of the preceding information means less than zero any time in the year other than the last two weeks before the Season Opener. In September no one will remember who claimed this spot. That isn’t to say that the last guy on the bench isn’t valuable, but the person occupying that spot at the end of the year means more than the person that we go north with now (perhaps it will be one in the same).
If it were up to me I’d have a bunt off to determine who makes it on the roster. Frankly that is where the value of a last-man-on-the-roster lies. If Brooks Conrad can successfully move a runner to third with a clean bunt he’s my guy…
I wasn’t going to comment, so if neither Conrad nor Thurstan would most likely see the light of day, with no one being a SB specialist or anything like that, then why not use it on another RP since Bobby loves to use their arms?
Certainly not the craziest thing I’ve ever heard, Robbie. I generally prefer to have a bigger bench, especially with the platoon mess the Braves’ OF is.
How is Valdez in the mix here? I didn’t think he was in the country yet, which would be kind of important for playing in Atlanta. Add that and the fact that he’d still need to get work in this spring to prepare his arm, I don’t get how he’s even mentioned.
What is it with the constant Jordan Schafer love? The kid is likely to be a 4th outfielder. He has little power and ZERO plate discipline. He’s got speed and range, but that’s it.
Undocorkscrew,
I saw your comment on the subject at Crashburn Alley just yesterday. I addressed it there and I’ll do the same here.
You are wrong. Jordan Schafer does not have zero plate discipline, his plate discipline is above average. Jordan Schafer has at least average power. In fact, there’s not a single tool Schafer can’t boast being at least average at.
When he gets fully healthy and back in the swing of things, he’s going to be the club’s every day center fielder. And that’s the end of the story.
PWH – Long time since I’ve said anything, and I owe you apologies on other fronts, but this is not the place for that.
Totally agree on both Reyes and Chavez for better or worse. Not sure either is ideal, but we can make do with them pitching some, likely, lower leverage innings for us. I’d like to see Thurston win the job, but will understand if the Braves go with Conrad. Conrad’s blue-collar, workman, I don’t wear batting gloves, style never resonated with me as a reason to place stock in him, but I understand if others disagree.
I too believe Schafer has CF/leadoff of the future still written on him. From a nonacademic standpoint I worry about him. The PED scandal/ML flop/wrist injury have me worried about his personal composure at this point. There’s very little to doubt in the skill set, but I don’t like to see a young guy face quite so many adverse scenarios. This is a very big year for him. There’s a very real possibility that he’s our starting CF’er in 2011, and there’s also a very real possibility he’s completely irrelevant come next year. I’d like to see him go .275/15/25 this year at AAA, but who knows.