My best estimate.
Roster By Year
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Forgive me my ignorance: Teheran and Vizcaino are supposed to be better prospects (obviously, I know TINSTAAPP) than Hanson?
How likely do you think it is that Kris Medlen gets a serious shot at the rotation at some point in that five year plan?
Obviously, Hanson is already in the show, and Teheran and Vizcaino are in the Sally league. In terms of upside, Teheran and Vizcaino (and R. Delgado, really) surpass Hanson. However, I didn’t mean for their positioning on the chart to indicate anything, those spaces just happened to be open. Don’t read anything into the order in which the starters or relievers are listed.
I think it’s extremely likely, given the chances everyone stays healthy for five years are practically non existent. The organization seems to be following my recommendation of getting Medlen more innings than a typical reliever in 2010 with an eye at moving him to the rotation at some point.
1. Obviously you disagree with Mr. McGuirk’s assertion that payroll hasn’t dropped, right? I know I disagree.
2. Do you really think they are going to squeeze down payroll or is this just a “based on who is in the system now this is how it could stack up” exercise.
3. If you really think they are going to squeeze payroll down, do you think MLB and the tax man will let them do that?
The two biggest surprises for me in this post were the payroll, as Cliff alluded to above, and the fact that you didn’t have Jordan Schafer up in The Show until 2012.
You really think they will let Mac walk after 2013? Seems like he, along with Hanson and Heyward, would be ones that the Braves would lock up for their careers…
1) Like I’ve said before, I have no way of knowing for sure.
2) The latter. There’s no way all of these prospects are going to pan out (well, it’s very unlikely), and they’re going to have to spend money on the free agent market to offset the shortcomings of the farm system–there will be plenty. This is sort of like the player development department’s best case scenario.
I think they’ll get rid of some outfielders mid season or during the off season to make room for Schafer, and he’ll be up before 2012. I’ll address this more when discussing the 2011 roster.
For one, I don’t think McCann is going to stay a catcher much past 2013. But, yeah, it’s a possibility he gets locked up. It depends on Bethancourt’s development (I’m not convinced he’ll hit) and what else the Braves have in the system at the time.
Very interesting post first of all. Would like to see this updated with pertinent news releases over time.
I’m curious as to why you don’t think Yunel will be with the Braves post-2013. Is Brandon Hicks projected to be on par with Yunel? Or simply a monetary issue?
I just didn’t include any decisions on extensions and such–letting everyone walk as a FA–for the purposes of this exercise.
By the time 2014 rolls around, Yunel Escobar will be 31 years old (If you believe he’s only 27 right now, and since he’s from Cuba, who knows), and I question whether or not he’ll be able to stick at SS that long.
Anyway, I wasn’t trying to rule out any extensions, just showing what could happen if they let everyone walk.
Isn’t Heyward a super 2 and will be arbitration eligible before 2012? I expect a rich 8 yr $100 million deal after this season.
That’s not correct. He’s not a super 2. If the Braves had waited until two days ago to call him up, he’d be a super two, and have four arbitration years (2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016). Right now, he’s got three league minimum years (2010, 2011, and 2012) and three arbitration years (2013, 2014, and 2105).
Delgado definitely does not have higher upside than Hanson, just going to throw that out there. Probably Vizcanio too. An argument can be made for Teheran but I’d say those two are pretty even.
As far as Heyward, I’m pretty sure he will have super two status. According to your last comment, if he had less service time he would have gotten super two status but that doesn’t make sense. As it stands now, I’m pretty sure he’s got four arbitration-eligible years.
No, you’re completely wrong about everything in that comment.
As it stands right now, Jason Heyward will have 1.0 years of service after 2010, 2.0 after 2011, 3.0 after 2012, making him arbitration eligible for the first time in 2013, after which he’ll have 4.0 years of service, 5.0 after 2014 (his 2nd arb year), and 6.0 after 2015 (his 3rd arb year). After a player has 6.0 years of service time, he’s eligible for FA, so right now he’s got 3 slave years and 3 arb years.
If the Braves had waited 2 weeks, he’d have 0.99 years of service after 2010, 1.99 after 2011, 2.99 after 2012, making him arbitration eligible as a super 2 for the first time in 2013, after which he’d have 3.99 years of service, 4.99 after 2014 (his second arb year), 5.99 years of service after 2015 (his his third arb year), and he’d remain under team control as an arb-eligible in 2016 (his 4th arb year), seeing as he’d have less than 6.0 years of service (5.99). If they’d waited two weeks, he’d have 2.99 slave years and 4 arb years.
Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado all have very similar upside, in slightly descending order, and all three are higher than that of Hanson.
I can’t help but think the Braves weren’t too concerned about Heyward starting the season in Atlanta with regard to his arb clock and free agency because I’m pretty sure they’ll move at some point to buy out those arb years (and some of his free agent years too)
But, you’re wrong about the super two thing, CAC. Heyward will be arb eligible after 2011.
NO I AM NOT GOD DAMN WRONG HE WILL NOT BE ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE UNTIL 2013.
Super two players are the top 17% (in terms of MLB service) of those players with less than 3 but more than 2 years of service.
Otherwise, players become arbitration eligible after three years.
After 2010, he’ll have 1.0 years of service. Not arb eligible.
After 2011, he’ll have 2.0 years of service. NOT ARB ELIGIBLE.
After 2012, he’ll have 3.0 years of service, making him arbitration eligible for his 2013 salary based on the 3+ year rule, not the super 2 rule.
Regardless of whether or not the Braves lock up Heyward, the long term the gains of keeping him down for 2 weeks or 2 months are the same. See: http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=2145
I’m going to close comments on this entry.
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