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A Home Grown Closer
By Capitol Avenue Club | May 6, 2010
Introduction: His Place in Prospect History
Looking back at the list of historic Braves relief prospects, Craig Kimbrel is probably the best to come through the system in 18 years. The last reliever with late game stuff to graduate the system was Joey Devine, but his stuff/ceiling/numbers were never as good as Kimbrel’s. Before that, John Rocker comes to mind. However, Rocker was used mostly as a starter in the minor leagues–he didn’t make a relief appearance until his third professional season and made only 24 total relief appearances before being called up in 1998. You have to go all the way back to 1992 when Mark Wohlers was ranked the 13th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America to find arguably a better relief prospect in the team’s history. Wohlers was used mostly as a starter during his first two professional seasons, but from 1990 on he was used almost exclusively as a reliever.
Wohlers inherited the MLB team’s closer role in 1995 and over the next three years he pitched 211 and 1/3 innings with a 2.90 ERA, a 1.240 WHIP, and a 282-to-83 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to collecting 97 saves in 3 years. After that, a case of Steve Blass disease made quick work of him, and he struggled for the rest of his professional career, pitching only 188 MLB innings from 1998-2002.
Before Wohlers, Mike Stanton was the best relief prospect the system had ever seen, rated as the #18 prospect in all of baseball in the 1990 pre season by Baseball America. Stanton wasn’t too successful with the Braves, though, pitching 289 and 2/3 innings from 1989-1995 with a 4.01 ERA, an 1.350 WHIP, and a 223-to-114 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I’m not sure there is a relief prospect in the franchise’s history worth discussing before Stanton. There are very few relievers in the hall of fame for a reason–they’re not as good as good as starting pitchers. Relievers are relievers because either they couldn’t make it as a starter or their physique/mechanics won’t allow them to pitch 6+ innings every fifth day. Because of this, relief prospects–especially pure relief prospects–are rarely so highly regarded. For instance, 2010′s top relief prospect per Baseball America is Tanner Scheppers, ranked #42 overall. 17 starting pitchers are in the top 41 overall.
Plus, the concept of a relief prospect is rather new. Bullpen usage has changed a lot in the past thirty years, and players weren’t bred to be specialists like they are now. So, I really don’t think there’s a relief prospect in the team’s history before Mike Stanton worth discussing.
How you want to rank Craig Kimbrel, Mike Stanton, and Mark Wohlers is up to you. I’d probably go Wohlers, Kimbrel, Stanton, but it’s not particularly important. What is important is the fact that Kimbrel is in the conversation, and he has a chance to be better than them all, perhaps even good enough to take the “greatest closer in the franchise’s history” label away from John Smoltz.
I only mention this to give you an idea of just what kind of talent we’re talking about, here. The type not typically seen in relief prospects–otherwise they’d probably be starting pitchers. The thing about Kimbrel is, he’s 5’11″ 205 LB–his frame probably couldn’t handle starting. It’s the perfect storm of supply and demand. He has to relieve, and he brings a lot of talent to a position that rarely has a lot of talent.
The Story of Craig Kimbrel
Drafted in the third round of the 2008 MLB Rule IV Draft out of Wallace State Community College, Kimbrel made it all the way to high A during his first professional season–pitching 35 and 1/3 innings with a 0.51 ERA, a 0.877 WHIP, and a 56-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio across three levels along the way. Last year he started in high A and was a disaster, resulting in a demotion to Rome. After the demotion he took off and flew through the system, reaching AAA by the end of the year. Across four levels in 2009, he pitched a total of 60 innings with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.250 WHIP, and a 103-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He participated in the AFL last year and stuck around until the bitter end of Spring Training in March. Before his call up yesterday, he had pitched 15 innings with a 1.20 ERA, a 0.800 WHIP, and a 21-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio at class AAA Gwinnett.
Scouting Report
Few would guess Kimbrel is a closer just by looking at him while he’s not pitching. At 5’11″ 205 LB, he’s neither athletic nor physically intimidating. Then again, that’s part of the reason he’s a relief pitcher and not a starter. Working exclusively from the stretch, Kimbrel’s delivery features a high leg kick and a low 3/4 arm slot. As he plants his glove-side foot, he bends his back knee down and drives towards home plate. Once the foot is planted, his shoulders and hips violently rotate about 110 degrees during his release. His momentum carries his back foot all the way to the front of the mound as he pops up from his delivery and by the end of it, he’s facing first base. The 3/4 arm slot and the violent hip rotation allows him to throw hard with plenty of movement. His fastball sits 95-98 MPH, occasionally touching triple digits, and he also throws a high-80′s slider with good depth and tilt that grades as a 60 at the least.
Control, or a complete lack thereof, has been Kimbrel’s biggest and arguably only problem thus far. In his minor league career, he allowed fewer hits than he’s issued free passes, which tells us something about both how dominant he is and how bad the control problems have been. His delivery is complicated and unique and requires about as much athleticism as Kimbrel will ever have, so he’ll have to stay in top physical condition to remain effective.
Scouting Report Video Supplement
Craig Kimbrel vs. Chase D’Arnaud (AFL) | Youtube.com
Outlook
Walks have always been a problem for Kimbrel, and he’ll probably always walk a few more guys than you’d like, but he more than makes up for it by generating tons of swings and misses and plenty of ground balls–he can still be an effective closer with a high walk rate. The question isn’t whether or not he’ll get the opportunity to close games, it’s when and for how long. That will largely be determined by how well he repeats his mechanics and how physically fit he stays. If he continues to improve in both facets, he may be the team’s closer for a very long time.
Right now Kimbrel is probably the second best relief pitcher in the organization, and if he continues to pitch as well as he has been in AAA this year, he’ll be closing games in 2011. I think Bobby and the Braves will ease him into a late innings role this season. I wouldn’t expect him to be used in high leverage situations immediately, but wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the club’s top set up man by the end of the season. He was recalled to take the place of the injured Jair Jurrjens, and when Jurrjens is healthy again, Kris Medlen will likely be moved back to the bullpen–creating a log jam. Another stint in AAA could be in the cards. Sending Kimbrel to the minors for another month would save the Braves a few million dollars down the road, but like I said, if Kimbrel continues to pitch as well as he has this season, it’s going to be very difficult to take him out of the bullpen.
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 13 Comments »
May 6th, 2010 at 8:39 AM
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May 6th, 2010 at 8:49 AM
A great review.
You do a great job of mixing APPROPRIATE AND SENSIBLE scouting concepts and jargon with statistical analysis. This piece certainly shows that.
I have been impressed at Kimbrel’s walk rate improvement so far this year. If he can hold BB:9 of 3, then he is the real deal. Do any of your scouting connections give any credit to any particular roving instructors or Gwinett staff guys? (Sain used to be phenomenal when he was systemwide instructor).
May 6th, 2010 at 9:04 AM
The biggest thing I’ve heard is he’s finding his arm slot a lot more consistently this year, which has largely eliminated the 0.1 IP, 3 BB innings he used to have. The only name I’ve heard is Derek Botelho, the AAA pitching coach who was given lots of praise for his work w/ Tommy Hanson. Dave Wallace, the new minor league pitching coordinator, most likely has something to do with it too.
But overall I think it’s just a matter of staying in shape and repeating mechanics.
May 6th, 2010 at 11:53 AM
Was Kimbrel already on the 40-man? He obviously is now, but I didn’t think he was, and I don’t see any transaction where the Braves removed someone else.
The problem with the bullpen as currently constituted is that only Venters can go much more than an inning. I guess Chavez can go two, but it made me sleep easier knowing that if we needed him, Medlen could bail us out.
Fun fact I didn’t know until looking at the active roster just now: Medlen is a switch-hitter. How did I miss that?
May 6th, 2010 at 12:11 PM
There was at least 1 open spot on the 40-man before yesterday.
May 6th, 2010 at 12:29 PM
Thanks.
Also, that was a timely Chipper post the other day.
May 6th, 2010 at 12:51 PM
Ha, yeah, he was looking tough yesterday.
May 6th, 2010 at 1:39 PM
Why do you say his physique couldn’t handle starting? Is it because he is stocky?
May 6th, 2010 at 1:46 PM
On Chipper and the “left handed power fade” question.
I looked at his last few years splits and it looks like 09 was clearly not to the norm of previous years when his iso was (a) usually 200 to 250 or so and (b) usually higher than RH iso.
In every other hitting stat, 09 and 2010 seem consistent with Chipper’s long term production (in fact, a little too consistent considering that the aging curve should have knocked them down). Mainly the aggregate change is mostly the result of the drop in LH iso.
I am thinking some time last year he got an impingement / tear / damage in his oblique / rib / lat area that, so far, is not going away. If he doesn’t get better, I bet the retirement announcement will mention something like that.
May 6th, 2010 at 1:46 PM
It’s not just his physique (that is a huge obstacle and has a lot to do with his frame/stocky-ness), but his delivery, too. Everything about him screams, “he’s got to relieve”.
May 6th, 2010 at 3:18 PM
Is Kimbrel’s physique that much different than Medlen’s? Any chance Medlen stays in he rotation after Jair comes back? KK to the bullpen maybe?
May 6th, 2010 at 3:37 PM
Yes, Kimbrel’s physique is completely different than Medlen’s. Medlen is a superb athlete, Kimbrel is a 5’11″ fat guy.
I hope Medlen remains in the rotation, we’ll see.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:05 PM
Ignoring that double, Kimbrel looked sharp. I’m pretty excited about him… though from whats been said, he might be sent down.