Rotationgate 2010
June 23, 2010 at 12:33 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
The Braves seemingly have a decision to make fairly soon regarding their rotation. The team has used six starters this year, the five they broke camp with (Hanson, Hudson, Jurrjens, Lowe, and Kawakami) and Kris Medlen. Tomorrow night Jair Jurrjens is scheduled to make his third and final rehab start, meaning he will be ready to re-join the rotation on June 29th. This gives the Braves six healthy starters–something’s gotta give.
The usual course of action would be to remove the guy who replaced Jair Jurrjens from the rotation. But that guy (Kris Medlen) has pitched well, and it’s not an accident. On February 2, 2010 I wrote, “If [a starter] is injured, Medlen will assume a starting role, where I suspect he’ll pitch well enough for the Braves to think twice about putting him back in the bullpen.” We’re now on the ‘thinking twice’ part.
First of all, let me say I don’t think it’s a given Jair Jurrjens should be handed a spot in the rotation. Injured or not, his performance and results were god awful before he hit the DL, and he’s been knocked around in his two rehab starts. Plus, his peripherals haven’t been particularly good throughout his major league career (K/BB < 2!), which indicates he’s due for some bad regression. I’m not saying he shouldn’t re-join the rotation, just that I’m not as sure as everyone else seems to be. Of course, I haven’t seen either of his rehab starts, and I ultimately trust the Braves to make the correct decision. Plus a good start tomorrow night would probably change my mind.
But let’s assume the Braves do promote Jair Jurrjens to the rotation, as they almost certainly will and probably for good reasons. Who do they remove?
Let’s take a look at what we’ve got. These metrics were calculated using data from 2010:
*as projected by ZiPS, RoS = rest of season. Also, FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, BBFIP = Batted Ball FIP, SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA.
Regarding decisions like this one, fundamentally I don’t care about the past–especially past results. Past performance can be used to project future performance and results, and so I care about past performance in that it can help me estimate future performance. But fundamentally, what happened in the past is the past and only what will happen matters.
Tommy Hanson is the best pitcher in the rotation and it would be downright silly to remove him. It would be almost as silly to remove Tim Hudson, despite his mediocre K/BB ratio. Which leaves Medlen, Kawakami, and Lowe.
The issue with Kris Medlen is his innings, his career high is 120 and 1/3 and he only threw 105 and 1/3 last year. There could be increased injury risks involved with letting Kris Medlen pitch in the rotation for the rest of the season. Especially considering his 5’9″, 190 LB frame. Now, I don’t know the Braves’ what thinking on this issue is, I’m not pretending to know. But his innings are largely disregarded when the subject is discussed. It’s an extremely important piece of the puzzle. You can not make a proper decision without considering the long-term implications. I know I’m probably preaching to the choir, here, but it’s amazing to me that even published columnists ignore this, effectively assuming anyone that picks up a cylindrical object is physically capable of being a MLB starting pitcher. It’s tough work, and I’m not sure Medlen’s ready for a full year of it.
I think if they decide Medlen is fit to stay in the rotation, he stays and Kawakami or Lowe goes. I expect Medlen to perform better than Kawakami or Lowe going forward. I don’t think it’s particularly important which one you pick to oust. Kawakami has been slightly worse, projects to be slightly worse, and isn’t as durable, so he seems like the logical candidate.
I’m anything but sure of the correct decision. Like I said, I’m not even sure Jair Jurrjens belongs in the rotation. There are too many things at play and too many untested variables to know. The only people qualified to make this decision are the people that have intensely evaluated the players in question for the past few years, aka the Braves.
When the Braves make their decision you’ll probably see lots of drivel about how the Braves screwed up, but don’t buy it. Without lots of professional evaluation, the best we can do is guess.
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I’ve been thinking about it a lot lately as well, and once I do more research I’ll have exact numbers. The innings limit absolutely matters and I highly doubt the Braves let him go past 170 at the most, despite letting Hanson and Jurrjens throw substantially more innings in their first seasons with Atlanta.
I think the possibility of skipping over a few Medlen starts, ala Hughes in New York, is a feasible option. Like I said once I do more research I will have exact information on how many starts he would need to have skipped to not go over that mark with an average innings per start ratio included.
One thing that is also to be considered is if one of these starters gets hurt, and Medlen has to assume the role again. How strict would the innings limit be? Would the dare start another pitcher while they are in a playoff hunt to keep his innings down? It’s big in baseball, but it is not something we have seen out of the Braves organization. They aren’t really telling their hand yet, despite Kawakami’s comments. It’s a very interesting subject overall.
That’s another thing about a starter getting hurt again. If Medlen spends a month or two in the bullpen and that happens, they could potentially let him go without having to worry about him throwing more than ~150 or so, which would be ideal.
I’m generally not a fan of skipping starters in the rotation, but I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping Medlen in the rotation and skipping him every now and then. This is a good reason to do it.
Should the Braves include future expectations in their analysis? I would guess Kenshin is not back next year and that Medlen would be seriously considered for next year’s rotation. If the Braves think Medlen is a starter long term I think they should keep him in the rotation. I am no expert, but would expect that this would help him develop as a starting pitcher.
Kenshin’s contract is three years. I was thinking it was two for some reason, so obviously he will be around in some fashion next year.
I think everyone’s gut says KK (including Kenshin’s) but you raise some very interesting issues. Since Medlen assumed the starter’s role the Braves have had a hole in the long relief department, although in large part because of Medlen they have not really had to call on that spot.
I think any of the options (I’m taking Lowe out of the equation) have varying positives and negatives, but I think JJ has to be put into the mix initially to see if he can return to 08-09 form. While not eye popping that is a better option than Kawakami is giving us every 5th day.
This would leave Medlen in the 5th spot and in that circumstance I agree with the idea of giving him a day off when the schedule allows.
It helps until he injures himself. Finding that balance of preparing him for use as a starter and not ruining his arm is what we’re after. Something like 150 innings is appropriate I think.
Despite Kenshin’s problems, Medlen needs to go to the pen for use as a 2 ining guy every 3 days or so for now. As accurately pointed out above, if he can sty in that role for 2 months and then somebody goes down, you can shift Medlen back to the rotation and not have to worry about it.
This ties into Peter’s post preceding this one by two. That is, where are the roster holes and how can you fill them.
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Interesting note: Medlen has thrown exactly as many innings this year as he did at the MLB level last year (67.2).
Here’s my 2 cents. Let Medlen pitch for now. Slow Minor down a little (maybe 5 innings/start), and let him pitch in September. Otherwise, why can’t KK go to the bullpen for now, work out the kinks, and come back in September? It saves his obviously fragile arm. I’d rather make sure to get 150-160 innings from Medlen than put him back in the bullpen and maybe get get 120 from him.
I’d let Medlen go now that we’ve got him stretched out, and when the time comes, bring Minor up or let KK back in the rotation.
I’m not sure I would say one really bad start out of the four (before he was hurt) is god awful. He also had a 9 strikeout game against the Rockies in that four game stretch. And Tom Glavine had exactly 7 seasons out of 21 with a K/BB ratio over 2 with a high of 2.78. I realize that the past performance of one player does not prove anything in regards to projecting Jair’s performance going forward, but maybe it does point to possible gaps in understanding how to project and/or evaluate pitchers with different pitching approaches and skill sets.
Tom Glavine’s average ERA+ among the 7 seasons he struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked is 131.7. His career ERA+ is 118. He performed a lot better in the years that his K/BB ratio was higher.
Glavine had a good recipe for success, few homers, few walks, few strikeouts. Ideally, you’d allow few homers, few walks, and get a ton of strikeouts, that’s the best recipe for success, but there are others.
Glavine is a freak, though. Jurrjens is a regular dude, a mere mortal. His repertoire is OK, it’d be a lot better if he could throw the slider with any consistency. His command is OK. His K rate is OK. His batted ball profiles are OK. There’s no exceptional tool here and no reason to think that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts–he’s a league average starter.
My problem with a number so low like 150 is that he will be limited again next season. If he throws around 150 now, he’ll be capped at about 185 next year.
Jair’s career ERA+ is 124 including a 159 last year. I know it’s a small sample size but to be 24 years old with two-plus full years under his belt and an ERA+ of 124 seems to indicate he’s more than a league average pitcher.
What does Jair Jurrjens do above average? That doesn’t have anything to do with luck or defense.
Before I say anything more, may I remind everyone that a league-average starter is still quite valuable and exceedingly so at JJ’s price tag? Calm down, no one’s saying he’s crap.
As for what he is, I guess it depends on what you believe. His FIP’s the last two seasons have been around 3.60, which is quite good. His xFIPs, however, are a bit higher (3.98, 4.34). The difference is the HR rate. FIPs give credit for HRs that have and have not happened while xFIP is more theoretical and stabilizes the HR rate around 10.6% (I think). So, if you think JJ actually does something to prevent HR, JJ is an upper-level pitcher. Otherwise, he’s a bit above-average. Can he prevent HR? Probably not as he doesn’t get an excessive amount of pop-ups to counter all the flyballs.
i dont discount your research PW, but i do discount your opinion that the braves would even consider putting lowe in the pen. it’s going to be kawakami or medlen and it will probably be kawakami.
It’s my opinion that it doesn’t matter. I’ve never asserted any position on what the Braves will do.
Jurrjens above average: My eyes tell me his fastball moves more than average, but haven’t looked at PitchF/X to back that up.
Harry at BtB published a nifty resource:
Graph of the Day: Average Pitch Movement | Beyond the Box Score
According to Jair’s Fangraphs Pitch F/X page, his fastball does move slightly more than the average fastball thrown by a right-hander.
Of course, it’s dangerous to draw conclusions about pitches if they’re classified by an algorithm, rather than manually.
First off I love this website found it on mlbtraderumors.com. But i am of the opinion that you do stick JJ in the rotation but i would like to have him showcased for the trade deadline. I think he is a useful trade piece as i believe he is more of an average to slighlty above average pitcher based his k/bb WHIP and such but maybe some gm has fallen in love with him and will give up a useful piece maybe a premier outfielder for JJ and venters combo
Lowe can’t be removed. He eats up too many innings. I think Medlen should go to the bullpen because of his innings limit but try to pitch a few innings at a time to stay stretched out unless Jair or Kawa struggle.
I’m glad you pointed out Jair’s peripherals. Analysts have been predicting a regression since his rookie year and it looked like he finally was hitting it earlier this year. Hopefully he’s just one of those pitchers who survives while not striking out many batters.
Regarding Medlen’s innings, he’s pitched the same number as last year, but he’s faced 25 fewer batters and thrown 100 fewer pitches.
Not sure what picking up a cylindrical object has to do with pitching…seems more like that would be hitting. A spherical object would make more sense for a pitcher.
I would love to see Medlen stay in the rotation. He’s fun to watch pitch and doesn’t give me the uneasy feeling KK does every time he takes the mound.
My guess is that last night nailed down a spot for Medlen.
No, it didn’t.
If they were exclusively concerned with performance, they would’ve made their decision a long time ago, and last night doesn’t change the fact that he’s got a frail frame and he’s never pitched more than 120 innings.
I like the way that Medlen pitches, but there is one issue that I’ve heard come up a few times in the past. In the past, pitchers have thrown twice as much or even thrice as much as the pitchers do today. Today you see very few pitchers even able to go into the 7th and 8th innings and when you see some pitchers do that, you hardly ever see them do it again.
What makes pitchers of the past more consistent, in regards to quality starts? And what makes pitchers today less consistent, in regards to few, if any, quality starts?
I know that I heard a few stories from the Rangers trying to bring back an old philosophy of pitching, and trying to make sure that pitchers are better for the long haul, instead of for the here and now? At what point does consistency and location get out played by power pitching?
It’s just a few questions that I have about pitching, in regards to the “sore arm” or the “breakdown” of pitchers after so many innings.
What makes pitchers of the past more consistent, in regards to quality starts? And what makes pitchers today less consistent, in regards to few, if any, quality starts?
I don’t know if that’s actually true or not without looking it up, but if it is true I have no idea why.
I know that I heard a few stories from the Rangers trying to bring back an old philosophy of pitching, and trying to make sure that pitchers are better for the long haul, instead of for the here and now?
I don’t really understand the question.
At what point does consistency and location get out played by power pitching?
It’s difficult to say because you’re talking about several moving parts. No two recipes for success are identical.
As I said in Talking Chop. There is no evidence to suggest Medlen will break down after 150 innings. If he averages 6 innings per start until the end of the season, he’ll pitch 175 innings.
175 innings are not that many innings to be concerned about.
I don’t think we can pretend to know how his arm will respond. The Braves have a better idea than we do.
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I know that I heard a few stories from the Rangers trying to bring back an old philosophy of pitching, and trying to make sure that pitchers are better for the long haul, instead of for the here and now?
Unsure why I didn’t complete this thought. I remember some pitchers reminiscing about the pitching regimes that they used in order to be ready from start to start. Some pitchers would throw a ton more pitches off the mound. Yet, I heard some pitching coaches and managers alike now wanting to “save a pitchers arm” by not allowing them to throw so many innings and regulating how many pitches thrown.
What makes the pitchers in the past different than the pitchers today and why is there this protection now when the past seems like it worked?
I don’t really know, nobody seems to know anything on the subject. I’ve seen little convincing evidence that one way is better than the other. I know this, the way pitchers are handled hasn’t made injuries go away. That doesn’t necessarily make it wrong, like I said, I’m yet to see a single piece of convincing evidence that one method of handling pitchers is better than another.
Someone just left a comment that does the usual ‘you probably never played baseball I was a pro!’ trope, predictably with several misspelled words, and calls me ignorant because, quote:
“I have played both college and in the minor league and noticed that in both instances the team goes with the one who gives them the best chance to win. [...] so who ever they pick it will be the one who gives the club the best chance to win.”
Did he notice that college and minor leagues aren’t a fucking hundred-billion dollar industry? And that good, pre-arb players are multi-million dollar assets? And that MLB teams (mostly) aren’t run by morons and will consider how their decisions impact the future?
If you have a $6 million house with a $5 million mortgage, you don’t have a $6 million asset, you have a $1 million asset. If you gain one win now but lose three wins in the future, you didn’t gain one win, you lost three.
As to the mentioning of Medlen’s “frail frame”????Kris has been a position player his whole life. Played hard, and still went in to close out as the pitcher for the last
1-2 inings. He may be wirey, but he is anything but Frail. I would rather have a “shorter” pitcher in there than a string bean 6′+.
Kris’s movement is very fluid, not jerky, and he has never had a problem with his throwing/pitching arm.