Stinginess Ranks
June 6, 2009 at 12:50 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Research Studies, Statistical Analysis
I just finished up a little study that I’m calling “Stinginess Ranks”. I got the idea for this study from watching Braves games all season and getting angry when we do stupid things or just incompetent things in general that either a) cost our team outs on the offensive side of the ball or b) give the opposition free outs. Outs are the currency of baseball and recently teams have been shifting towards a philosophy of treating them with more respect than any other thing in the game. Using an out is bad, not using one is good. Making an out on defense is good, not making one is bad. Every out a hitter uses decreases the probability that his team will win (unless of course a run scores, but a non-out run increases the probability more, so in general this statement is true). Every out a defense converts increases the probability that their team will win. Giving them away for free is never a good thing. I wanted to see just how bad my Braves are at giving away free outs.
The formula for this isn’t too complex. It is 1 minus on-base percentage (percent of PA’s that result in outs), plus 1 minus defensive efficiency (percent of balls put in play that a defense fails to convert into outs), plus 1 minus another metric I created, baserunning stinginess. The formula for baserunning stinginess is (Runs plus Runners left on base) divided by (hits plus walks plus intentional walks plus hit batsmen) (the percent of baserunners that aren’t called out on the basepaths for double plays, caught stealing, or other stupid or incompetent errors). Add the 3 up and you have the opposite of stinginess rating. Rank them, subtract their ranks from 31, and you have a ranking of a team’s stinginess. Here’s how it came out:
1. Texas
2. Pittsburgh
3. Milwaukee
4. New York Yankees
5. Philadelphia
6. Tampa Bay
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Minnesota Twins
9. Toronto
10. Cleveland
11. Detroit
12. Chicago Cubs
13. Washington
14. St. Louis
15. Florida
16. Oakland
17. Cincinnati
18. Los Angeles Angels
19. New York Mets
20. Boston
21. San Francisco
22. Colorado
23. San Diego
24. Baltimore
25. Houston
26. Atlanta
27. Chicago White Sox
28. Arizona
29. Kansas City
30. Seattle
I was not at all surprised to see the Braves were near the bottom of the list. We’ve been giving outs away like candy on both sides of the ball all season. Our defensive efficiency has improved greatly, but we’re still not awesome. I’m not surprised by any of the first 9. Boston I figured would be higher because they embody the stingy philosophy. But sometimes your philosophy and execution don’t coincide. Pittsburgh is near the top largely because of their much improved defense.
It is not necessary to be stingy with outs to win. But it is a lot harder. And I hope the Braves learn this. Soon.
UPDATE: Rankings re-calculated 08/11/2009 here.
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I’m a bit surprised by the high ranking of the yanks…mainly because girardi is in love with the bunt and i hate it. but since you didn’t mention bunting i’m not sure that is part of your formula. it is an awful way to give up an out though…
Well every time you bunt for a non-hit you’re giving up an out at the plate which makes your team OBP go down, so it is in the formula. I was a bit surprised by the Yankees high ranking, but they’re playing much better on defense this year and regardless of organizational philosophy, The Yankees have enough really good hitters to sustain a high OBP even if Girardi gives away free outs a lot. And I agree with you that he shouldn’t be doing it. Not with that line-up, not in the AL, and just not in general. But that potent line-up and lack of a pitcher’s spot make a sac bunt particularly stupid.
And they ranked 13th in my baserunning metric. Which never really surprises me when a team is middle of the pack.
You should do this again…
I’ve updated it here.