Transaction Analysis: D-Lee
August 18, 2010 at 6:18 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Acquired 1B Derrek Lee and cash considerations from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Robinson Lopez, RHP Tyrelle Harris, and LHP Jeffrey Lorick.
Place Troy Glaus on the 15-day disabled list.
Troy Glaus is a 33 year old right handed hitter with a career 119 OPS+. Derrek Lee is a 34 year old right handed hitter with a career 122 OPS+. Glaus walks a bit more and strikes out a bit more, but they’ve been more or less the same offensive player in terms of value (from a rate standpoint) for their entire careers. Derrek Lee enters today (and he’s not playing today, more on that later) hitting .251/.335/.416. Troy Glaus enters today hitting .239/.343/.406. Considering the park effects, it doesn’t seem like much of an upgrade on the surface. Two mid-30′s first basemen having poor (by their standards and the league’s standards for first basemen) offensive seasons.
However, Derrek Lee has hit much better in the second half than he did in the first half. Through his first 85 games, he hit .233/.329/.366. In 24 games since he’s hit .313/.356/.583. I’m not a fan of arbitrary endpoints, but I think it is noteworthy that he’s been hitting well as of late and hit 4 HR in his last 3 games. Glaus has done the opposite. After hitting .254/.361/.441 in the first half (85 games), he’s hit .196/.294/.301 in 30 second half games. Presumably the Braves have a pretty good idea of which one is closer to the truth, and they obviously think Lee will be an upgrade. I can’t think of any reason they would be wrong, Lee will probably be an upgrade.
But then again, Lee hasn’t played in a few days because of a bulging disk in his back. How, exactly, will he rebound from this injury? Anyone’s guess. It’s quite a gamble from here, but of course I don’t know everything the teams making this deal do. Also, handing the medical staff another project in the middle of a pennant race, since they’ve done such wonderful work with the likes of Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer, and Glaus himself, seems like a very bad idea.
Still, there’s a pretty good chance Lee helps the team down the stretch, more than Eric Hinske, Troy Glaus, Barbaro Canizares, or Freddie Freeman could. The cash simply makes Lee’s contract palatable for the organization’s payroll, and had a lot to do with the quality of the players the Cubs got in return.
Speaking of which, the Cubs get three legitimate prospects. The best of the trio is Robinson Lopez, a 6’2″ right-hander with an extremely live arm and a very projectable frame. His results at class A Rome have been disappointing, but it’s important to remember he’s only 19 years old and this is his first full season. I still hold him in very high regard. The other two are relievers. Lorick, the left hander, was a 20th round pick out of the University of Virginia in last year’s draft. He’s not the typical refined prospect you see from a 4-year college, but he has some late-game potential. Harris was taken one round before Lorick in the same draft. He throws hard and he’s had a successful first full pro season, making it all the way to AA. He’s got a huge frame (6’4″, 235 LB), and like Lorick has some late-game potential.
I think the Cubs did very well to get Lopez and two interesting relief prospects, even if they had to pay some to get them. Still, this deal probably makes the Braves better, and the middle of a pennant race isn’t the time to worry about giving up a lottery ticket and some Carolina League relievers.
One more thing, if the organization had put Troy Glaus on the DL a month ago, they’d probably still have their three prospects and a productive first baseman. Though it’s possibly just a string of bad luck for some otherwise competent people, I have to wonder if the team’s medical staff knows what the hell they’re doing after several significant screw ups the past few years.
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Lee’s injury is the only question mark. There is no question about Glaus. He is terrible. May is long gone, and it isn’t coming back. You can dissect his last 2+ months any way you want and they all point to one thing: he can’t help this team. There is simply no pretending that Lee = Glaus.
The strangest thing is this is that Adam LaRoche cleared waivers but the Braves didn’t seem to show any interest there. LaRoche is also on a one year deal like Lee, but Adam is a lefty and actually having a solid year. So why didn’t the Braves explore a trade with the D-Backs?
I’m not outraged by the trade by any means, but I do think we just lost some solid prospects for yet another injury plagued first baseman.
Here’s hoping that Lee is better than the rally killer that is Troy Glaus.
Do you really think the Braves’ medical staff is that bad? Is it worse than other teams in recent years (Twins, Mets, Phillies, to name a few)?
We know it’s not reasonable to expect all our young arms to work out, but as long as some combination of Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Kimbrell, Venters, Minor and Medlen pan out over the long haul, Lopez will never be missed.
More marginal improvement. But winning the division by a game could be that margin at this point.
Oh my god, Glaus is going to work at third base at AAA, that’s comically stupid. I really hope that isn’t true
Michael, agree whole-heartedly.
Dan, also agree whole-heartedly.
Lopez wasn’t going to help us get to the WS this year, Derrek Lee just might. Haha, the guys on 790 said “Lee hasn’t grounded into any double plays this month, which is 5 less than Troy Glaus has.”
CAC, please explain your last paragraph. Are you saying we would have traded for a 1B earlier or are you saying that with some rest on the DL, Glaus would still be productive?
If Derrek Lee is healthy, he is an upgrade over the Troy Glaus of the last two months. I think Wren is not stupid enough to give 3 prospects for a guy as hurt as Glaus is now. I hope at least.
7,
The latter.
One thing CAC didn’t analyze:
Lee is +4 with the glove in 2010 according to DRS (Career +13), 2.3 according to UZR (Career +7.6) and a career -1.3 according to TZL. So, minimum he is an average 1st baseman.
Glaus in 2010 -8 (DRS) and -8.1 (UZR).
The upgrade is both with the bat and the glove.
I like the deal except for the fact that Lee is banged up currently. After seeing how Glaus has been so badly affected by injuries, it doesn’t give me a good feeling about Lee’s effectiveness going forward if he just had to have an epidural.
Wren may not be the most tactful GM in treating aging vets, but I have to give him credit for being creative and working within the team’s payroll constraints.
Bottom line is that the pre-Lee team wasn’t going anywhere, if it was able to somehow make the playoffs. Assuming his back holds up (yes, it’s always scary when the word “epidural” comes up), we have a RH 3-hole hitter that provides solid defense. Or will we keep Prado at 3 and make Lee the cleanup hitter?
Let’s hope he’s McGriff 2.0…
CAC – do you foresee any other waive trades? Another RH OF would be nice, though I don’t know who’s out there that another team won’t cock-block.
CAC – What do you think Derek Lee would get in arbitration? Would the Braves be able to him arbitration without fear of being stuck if he accepted it? If he is a type B FA, a supplemental pick might lessen the sting of the prospects we just gave up, no?
10,
Yeah, Lee is most def. a defensive upgrade, great glove at 1B.
12,
I doubt it, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
I think Lee would make about $13 million in arbitration. They wouldn’t be stuck with him, just might have to eat a few million to trade him. It’s worth the risk.
I wonder why the Braves never went after Adam Dunn?
He bats left handed and the Nationals were asking too much for him.
So I guess the big question is if Omar Infante is headed back to the bench? Last night was a nice preview of how that lineup would perform with Infante and Prado together. I think you put Lee in the 3-spot after those two guys and then McCann and other teams are in big trouble.
I would be really disappointed to see Glaus come back and take 3B and put Infante back on the bench.
As much as I have liked Lee since when he was a Marlin, I just extremely dislike the concept of getting what is basically and old declining power hitter who has back issues. If it where just the declining thing, I’d be less hesitant because of his history and the dramatic decline this year. It’s the back injury which has me wary because that can stop him dead in his track even if this were five years ago.
I don’t think the Glaus at 3B thing is going to work. If I’m Omar Infante, I’m feeling pretty secure about my job.
Hey Peter, what do you go to school for? And if you have a job, what is it? Just curious. You seem like a computer science or accounting major, to me, but could also be something opposite like PoliSci.
Close, Chemical Engineering.
As a Cubs fan, Lee was really heating up before he hurt this back this week. He’s also got great D at 1B and can catch a lot of bad balls thrown his way.
Keep in mind it’s just a rental for the rest of the year.
D-Lee is also very close to becoming a Type A free agent so I think they will offer him arb. I mean if we got Jesse Chavez for Soriano, I think we could get something for D-Lee.
Thanks Fro, I appreciate it.
Lane, exactly.
I do wonder about the Braves medical staff sometimes. I cannot remember what player it was, but someone a few years ago seemed obviously hurt. They kept having MRIs done and they always showed up negative. Finally, they did a “new” kind of MRI and it showed up positive, confirming the player was injured. With the money they’re investing in these ballplayers, they should always use the best diagnostic tools available.
On the trade, if Glaus can recuperate his knee and play a serviceable third base, I like the idea of putting Infante in left with a healthy Glaus and a healthy Lee in the lineup.
It was Rafael Soriano. He had a nerve issue in his elbow. They had to do exploratory surgery to diagnose–MRI’s couldn’t detect it.
CAC – yes, that fits the bill but I was thinking about Mike Gonzalez.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070525&content_id=1985217&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
Regardless, I am sympathetic with your concerns about the medical staff. Why does it take so long to properly diagnose and DL these guys when everyone with a TV can tell they’re not performing to their usual? I understand the player’s impulse to play, but really, this should not be the player’s decision if their condition is affecting the team and their long-term health.
Also, I should add that I really like your blog and the thoughtful commentary it generates.
CAC, I seem to recall Dave O’Brien saying that, at the time of Soriano’s injury (two years ago, I believe), many of his fellow Brav-ohs thought that he was dogging it after signing his two-year contract. Soriano may be an exception, but I can’t imagine that it’s very helpful to the medical staff when all of the players are constantly insisting that they’re fine, even when they’re clearly not (see Glaus, Troy and Schaefer, Jordan).
Yeah, the players don’t help anything, but that’s no excuse. The medical staff, coaching staff, and front office should know better. We all know a player would rather jeopardize their team’s chances and their own careers than admit they’re injured, the FO/coaches/team doctors should know this too and act accordingly.
Did anyone else hear Chipper essentially say he disagreed with the way TP is handling Heyward?
#32, I heard that. I wonder if TP tinkers with these young guys too much.
Lee slashed .306/.393/.579 last year (.412wOBA). Anything remotely close to that would be a much-needed middle-of-the-order hitter the Braves need, and from the right side, from an excellent defender.
That said, he’s not hit anything close to that this year, he’s got a bulging disc (which probably explains his 2010 production), and Robinson Lopez was intriguing. It’s a gamble and I hope it works out, but I’ll give it a 50-50 shot if I’m being objective.
It’s hard to imagine Glaus playing a passable 3B, but maybe 2+ weeks of rest will do the trick. I’d call that a long shot.
Final thought: anyone who says Lee isn’t an improvement over Glaus hasn’t looked at defense.
I like this trade but wish we didn’t have to give up Lopez.
Me too.
Love this blog and the Braves. When I first heard the news, I immediately recoiled at giving up three solid pitching prospects. I still haven’t recovered from the Teixiera fiasco, and know that we have one of the best, if not THE best farm league out there.
That being said- Lee is a much needed just shot in the arm, bulging disc aside. We’re actually in it this year. And we’re in mid August to say the least. All of us hardcore Bravo fans, probably have a decent amount of insecurity when it comes to having a good regular season team, and then gaffing it in the playoffs, but I think it was the right move. Our young pitching prospects are performing the last two seasons in the bigs, and we have a contender once again (finally) for the post-season.
Lee was worth the stretch. Especially in light of the very depressing news of Chipper’s knee. I was down this whole last week, until now. Our pitching staff is as solid as it’s been in years. One of the best in the bigs actually.
This was the right move in light of Glaus and the Chipper news. We can do this! Especially in light of this being Bobby’s swan song. Here’s to another October Tomahawk Chop!!
I like the deal. Sort of reminds of picking up Sid Bream. Not the greatest hitter…zero speed(I think Lee is a little faster, would be hard not to be) good glove at 1st. But more than that I think he will provide some clubhouse stability. Not that the Braves have clubhouse issues, but the more seasoned veterans in there the better. He is definitely an improvement over Glaus at this point. I don’t know how you can have a minor bulging disc, but I’m hoping it will be a non-issue. The Braves had to add this bat, I hate losing the kids, but I think our system will handle the loss.
Enjoyed the read. Well thought out comments by all.
[...] blog Capitol Avenue (motto: "Chipper Jones is not dead") did a thorough deconstruction of the Lee deal. So head there, especially for details of the prospects — 19-year-old right-hander Robinson [...]
As much as I love prospects I want the Atlanta Braves to win now. Lopez is a good prospect but with the Braves and all their pitching he would’ve never saw that rotation. So this is actually a good move for him and his career as a SP. The Braves have several up and coming arms in the DSL and we also just signed a good pitching prospect in July.
Also the Braves have been scouting phenom Luis Heredia, I know the Pirates are rumored to be “in the lead” for his services but money and winning talk so we’ll see there. Maybe the Braves didn’t sign Alvord or Sabol because of this if they were to land this kid we’d forget all about Lopez QUICK lol!
Trey: they wanted a RIGHT handed bat.
Trey @2,
And I don’t see where anybody else said it (may not have paid attention) but LaRoche has another year on his deal and gets a bonus on top of that for being traded. With Freeman being likely to be able to produce from the left side what LaRoche usually does by next year, he would be untradeable dead weight.
Does anyone else think that having Glaus work at 3B for Gwinnett during his DL-time is at least partially designed to help smooth over any potential hard feelings? It’s just hard to imagine he could be effective at 3B given his knee issues. That being said, there really isn’t a downside to letting him try; if it works, a 3-4-5 of Lee – McCann – Glaus might look pretty good down the stretch…
Peter,
Any chance you could add those nifty spreadsheet-type things you usually do in transaction analyses where you project the future wins and dollars to see who got the better end of the stick? I’m curious just how valuable of a future asset Lopez really is.
The Braves are getting a great player in this deal. I’m a Cubs fan and D-Lee has been my favorite Cubs player for several years now and I’m really going to miss him. He’s a great clubhouse guy, a Gold-Glove caliber first-basemen, and although his season stats aren’t that great, he is a good hitter and he was starting to heat up. As recently as just last year, he hit over .300 with 35 homeruns and over 100 RBIs. I think you Braves fans are going to like having D-Lee on your team. He’s been to the playoffs several time, and has won a World Series before. He is definitely an upgrade over Glaus. Enjoy his talents and his persona and good luck the rest of the way!
I got 6 text messages last night from my cubs-fan friends congratulating me on getting DLee. They all seem to know the guy still has a few seasons left, I just hope that it starts this fall.
#37, I’m a little more inclined to believe that the Braves didn’t shell out the money for Alvord or Sabol because they knew they were trying to acquire another hitter for the stretch run. Alvord was rumored to be ready to sign a deal for right around $1M, and keeping Glaus out of the starting lineup the rest of the way will save the Braves $750K (which conveniently enough adds up to the amount of money the Braves will be paying Lee the rest of the way).
Not saying this is a fact or anything, but it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith to assume that the Braves declined to sign Alvord so that they could trade for Lee. So really, from a Braves perspective you would have to look at it as trading away the three pitchers and giving up the option to sign Alvord.
I’d be curious to see if that affects the way anyone views the deal? I personally still like it for all the reasons mentioned above. Lee’s a definitive upgrade over Glaus; and while Lopez is a prospect worth watching, he’s hardly one of the Braves top prospects. A win-now move, but one a team in the position the Braves are in can afford to make.
Dave,
Yeah, I’m doing one later today now that we know how much cash the Cubs sent over ($1.7 million).
[...] in 49.2 innings. Lopez, a 19-year-old RHP who considered by Peter at Capitol Avenue Club to be the best of the three, was 3-8 with a 4.37 ERA in single-A Rome this year. Lorick is a lefty from Duluth and the [...]
Thanks Peter!