Brandon Beachy Scouting Report
August 29, 2010 at 6:00 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to find a more interesting story in all of minor league baseball than that of Brandon Beachy. Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Indiana Wesleyan University in 2008, Beachy spent the first two years of his professional career splitting time between starting and relieving, largely flying under the radar due to a non-existent pedigree and middling strikeout rates in the lower minors. He got a call up to AA at the end of 2009 with an eye on 2010, but only pitched 1 inning for the Mississippi Braves that year. This year he started the year out of the Mississippi bullpen, where he posted a 2.54 FIP (49 K’s, 14 BB’s, 1 HR) in 40 innings. At that point, the blogosphere started to notice, and almost on cue he was moved to the Mississippi rotation, where in 6 starts he was even more dominant, posting a 2.14 FIP (51 K’s, 8 BB’s, 2 HR) in 35 and 1/3 innings. His all around excellence at Mississippi–specifically in the rotation–earned him a call up to class AAA Gwinnett, where he’d posted a 2.67 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio entering today’s game (being used as a starter). So a non-drafted free agent reliever convert becomes a dominant starter at AAA after just a bit more than two years of professional baseball, you probably wouldn’t find a story like this anywhere but with the Braves.
In this regard, the reliever convert, out of nowhere aspect of his story, he reminds me a lot of Kris Medlen. Physically, he couldn’t be any more different than Medlen. Listed at 6’3″, 215 LB, Beachy looks more like an Olympic swimmer than a baseball player. The best word I can use to describe him would be ‘strong’, the best two would be ‘incredibly strong’. With ripped biceps and forearms, broad shoulders, and slim hips, his physicality is somewhat reminiscent of current Brave Kyle Farnsworth. He has very little body fat and he’s one of the more impressive physical specimens I’ve seen.
His upper body strength allows him to generate plus velocity without sacrificing movement or utilizing much hip/shoulder separation. His fastball sat 89-90 in the first inning, then 91-93–touching 94 when he needed to–for the rest of the outing. His fastball had some sink and fade, but it wasn’t a true sinker by any means. It wasn’t a terribly hot day, but he did a very good job of holding his velocity and movement throughout his six frames. His best pitch is his fastball, but his repertoire also includes a solid-average change up and a fringe-average curve ball.
The change up featured pristine fastball separation at 81-84 MPH and had some fade. He had no trouble spotting it and used it as an effective out pitch both in the zone and below the knees. He generated several swing-and-misses with the change and relied on it heavily during the middle innings when his fastball/curve ball weren’t all there.
His curve ball comes in at 76-79. He threw two versions of the pitch, one featuring heavy bite that he used almost exclusively as a chase pitch, and one that didn’t move nearly as much but he was able to command much better. The hitters were mostly able to pick up on the 12-6 version of his curve. He uses a lot of hand/wrist action to generate the break, and I wonder if it will be a useful weapon against major leaguers. The other one featured a good amount of deception, but lacked the type of bite or velocity that would typically characterize a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch.
Regarding his mechanics, I don’t like them one bit. His delivery is, in a word, inefficient. It features a long initial stride (good), but beyond that he generates almost all of his velocity from his arm, rather than properly rotating his hips and shoulders in sequence. There’s little separation between the phases of his delivery, which means he has to use a lot of arm effort to throw as hard as he does. The arm strength is definitely there, but it doesn’t have to be this way. By more profoundly separating the phases of his delivery he could throw just as hard–if not harder–and decrease his risk of arm injuries. Still, there’s nothing in his delivery that will prohibit him from being successful in the major leagues. Many players have had extremely successful careers with inefficient deliveries like Beachy’s.
His command was generally good and he did a good job of throwing strikes all day, despite being squeezed some of the time and being victimized by awful defense (Luis Bolivar being the primary culprit). He’s a fly ball pitcher, but not overly so, and he helped his cause a lot today by inducing several pop ups. He worked quickly and maintained an intimidating presence on the mound, never letting the shoddy defense or a bad pitch get to him.
All things considered, I think we’re looking at a #4 starter, here. If the curve ball improves, he could probably be a #3 or a #2, but right now the sum of his abilities gives him a great shot at being a productive back-end starter despite the lack of a true swing-and-miss offering. He’s the type of player fans will like a lot, in that he won’t beat himself and seems like a hard worker with excellent make up. Much like Medlen, he hasn’t worked up to 200 innings a season yet. He’s currently at 113 and 1/3 on the year, which shatters his pro career high. If he can’t build up his stamina enough to go for 200 innings a year, he’ll probably have to settle for a middle-relief role, because he doesn’t have late-game stuff at the moment. I don’t think durability will be as much of a problem for Beachy as it has been for Kris Medlen, because Beachy has a significant advantage in both size and strength. Regardless, Beachy is a great story and another illustration of the Braves’ miracle-working player development department, they certainly deserve a standing round of applause for this one.
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Thanks. Great stuff. He really has popped up on the prospect radar this year.
Quick rant: Before last night’s dominating start by Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe had the lowest xFIP on the team at 3.93. Any metric that rates Derek Lowe as the “best” starter on the Braves, can no longer be taken seriously.
xFIP hates Tommy Hanson (4.10). My understanding is that this metric is based on K’s, BB’s and home run/fly ball percentage. Tommy’s K/BB is almost double that of Lowe and his HR/FB is about half.
So the xFIP conclusion is: Since Hanson doesn’t throw a lot of mistake pitches and Lowe throws that piece of shit “sinker” up in the zone that gets crushed, Lowe’s actually performed better this season than Hanson…
The question is: If the Braves make the postseason, is Derek Lowe one of the four starters? I believe a lot of us might agree that he shouldn’t be…but what will the organization do?
xFIP hates Tommy Hanson (4.10). My understanding is that this metric is based on K’s, BB’s and home run/fly ball percentage. Tommy’s K/BB is almost double that of Lowe and his HR/FB is about half.
No, xFIP is like FIP (K’s, BB’s, HR’s), except it normalizes the ‘HR’ term to make the pitcher’s HR/FB = league average HR/FB. If a player is benefiting from a low HR/FB rate, his xFIP will be higher than his FIP. Part of the reason I don’t like xFIP in large samples is because it treats HR/FB as 100% luck/park, I don’t think it is.
Largely, overshadowed in today’s miracalous comback was Martinez’s work. Now I now he wasn’t facing the most dynamic offense in the league but he was more successful than Lowe today. Do you think Martinez can be a valuable piece to a bullpen going foward? Also, would it work in the Braves favor (and Lowe’s) if he is not pitched right after Tim Hudson? They are use a sinker and Hudson’s is way more effective than Lowe’s is.
Couple questions:
1) Is Beachy trade bait (selling high) or AAA depth for next year until the trade deadline, when Teheran might as well be ready?
2) In regard to the FIP-xFIP debate, can you explain the pros/cons to the debate a bit more (maybe a post idea)? I favor xFIP because it does normalize HR/FB%, unless guys play in unusual parks or show a history of being different (Jurrjens). I’m guessing HR/FB% is less of a rule than BABiP for pitchers, but I don’t know if there’s something else to it. For instance, I believe more in Livan Hernandez’s 4.80 xFIP than his 3.93 FIP because that 5.3 HR/FB% is way below normal.
Lane,
Yeah Martinez can be a productive reliever. He throws strikes, and players that throw strikes can usually be successful in short stints. I have never seen a scientific study that suggests throwing 2 pitchers with similar repertoires on consecutive days hurts either one nor do I believe it is true.
Mark,
I would not be surprised at all if Beachy were traded. If he isn’t I bet he’ll be called up as a reliever.
Just got a comment suggesting ‘the only statistics that matter are ERA and W/L record’ and Bobby is responsible for Beachy’s delivery.
The only stats that matter are heart and hustle.
And David Eckstein-ism.
And the degree to which one dirties their uni.
I’m curious about the different take you have on Beachy’s curveball(s). I’ve seen it described by Baseball America and elsewhere as plus, and it has been referred to as his best pitch by some of those same sources. Did you watch Beachy multiple games? Do you think he might have simply not had much feel for his curve when you saw him? What do you think creates a discrepancy of opinion on this pitch as big as the gap from “fringe-average” to “plus”?
This is the first time I’ve seen him pitch and it’s certainly possible that he just didn’t have it today.
I don’t know what the scout at BA saw that made him label it as ‘plus’, but it was absolutely his 3rd best pitch yesterday. Again, not saying they’re wrong and I’m right, just not what I saw.
Should be expect Teharan in the bigs next season? And Delgado 2012?
I wouldn’t expect either one t be in the bigs next year, I think June of 2012 is the most realistic over/under for both of them, but it’s certainly possible either one is in the big leagues in 2011.
Beachy’s best pitch is his curve. Maybe you didn’t see it today. In fact, his last couple of outings, it hasn’t been there. Which must tell you how good he is in commanding the zone and not walking guys while having a 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts. That is pitching…no hard breaker, but throwing well. This guy is a keeper.
I don’t like his mechanics very well, either…he opens his front side and land foot if you ask me. BUT, he is on line, throws through the ball, and finishes down. It is effective.
Also, I have seen guys that have beautiful mechanics and a lively mid 90s fastball and hard slider that look unhittable at times. But, they don’t compete or get rattled between the ears. This kid is as steady as they come.
I would point to his make up as the reason he has sky rocketed. He was a kid who had some tools at a small university and never thought he would get a chance. He gets signed, and now he won’t let anything stop him from excelling. Watch him too, WHEN he makes it, he won’t be a flash in the pan…he will stick. He is too good a character guy.
How can a kid with his arm and ability not end up at a major D-1 in Indiana? Indiana Wesleyan? What level is that, NAIA? D-3?
I think it’s because he didn’t pitch very much before (or even during) college.
I find it amazing how the Braves farm system continuously produces decent pitching prospects out of nowhere. See Chuck James, Charlie Morton, Kris Medlen, and now Brandon Beachy. Not saying they all turn out to be success stories (see half of above list) – but almost every year somebody comes out from the depths to become a legitimate ML-caliber pitcher.
I still think Morton can be an above-average major league starting pitcher, too.
I saw though where Beachy was a power hitting 3B and all-state player in Indiana. Plus, he won a Mental Attitude award. What D-1 wouldn’t want a power hitting 6’3″ 215 lb. kid with a cannon across the diamond?
I hope he gets a September call up. It is a great story.
Thanks for the report.
Maybe the grades weren’t there or there was some reason he needed to stay close to home?
I get a Kyle Davies vibe. And let’s remember that Davies was lining up to be good before the wheels came off. Shut out the Red Sox at Fenway for 6 innings in his debut. Had better numbers at AA than Beachey. Also was a 6’2 September-born RHP with a 91 – 93 fastball that could tick up, very good change, a curve and show-me / chase secondary breaking pitch (a slider instead of a second different curveball).
The Braves used Davies in trade to try and fill a real void with a pedigreed risk-bearing high ceiling veteran (Octavio Dotel). Didn’t work, but a decent enough way to spend a low cost low to medium ceiling contract like Davies’. Maybe we’ll see something similar with Beachey.
But with Lowe, Kawakami and Minor essentially competing for 2 rotation spots and the long-reliever for 2011 while Medlen rehabs, wouldn’t be surprised if they hold onto him for a bit.
No chance Beachy was a grades issue when going to college! He has too much character and calmness under pressure. Stupid people fall apart under stress, whether in life or on a ball field!
If Beachy gets dealt, good for him. We have such a deep organization, there is a lot of competition. With another club, he could catch on as a back end starter or consistent bullpen guy.
If he were with the Pirates, Cubs, Orioles, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Mets, Brewers, etc. right now, he would have already gotten a cup of coffee!
To me, he has solid bullpen arm written all over him when he solidifies himself in the bigs.
Also, Wren has said, “We are not going to trade Minor, Tehran, or Beachy!” I think he is safe for now.
what do you think would happen with Beachey if he improved his lower body within his mechanics? It sounds like he should have plenty of lower body strength as it is, but what do you think happens when everything connects between the upper and lower half? Is this even possible for this guy?
If he could separate the lower and upper phases of his delivery he’d be able to either a) throw harder, b) reduce the risk of injury, or c) both.
So Beachy was a 3B? And Andrelton Simmons was a SS. Wasn’t Medlen a position player too? Someone in the Braves scouting department really has a good eye on position players throwing the ball around the diamond.
Yeah Medlen was a SS and Closer at whatever CC/Juco he went to. I think they saw Beachy relieving after the 2008 draft and signed him after seeing him only twice. BA had some video interview of him earlier that was pretty good, conducted by an attractive woman.
Since the resason that the Braves cannot trade either Lowe/KK is because of their contracts, is it possible that they could swap one of them to a team who needs pitching for an equally bad contract at a position that the Braves actually need? Like Carlos Lee, for instance, although I am not advocating for Carlos Lee. But Houston signed him to a bad contract, like Lowe, and a swap would encumber neither team more than it already is but it would provide each team with something it could use. Probaby such an ideal scenario does not exist.
So, you don’t like the call to bring up Freeman when the rosters expand?
No. It makes no sense. He’s not ready to play every day and there’s no point in bringing him up to pinch-hit and be a defensive replacement. Waste of resources, waste of time, unnecessary distraction.
Thanks for the report.
The Beachy interview is on youtube, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dafw0dNNsbI for anyone who hasn’t seen it.
Yeah, I feel just about the same way. I think they could find a productive platoon out Lee/Glaus/Barbaro/Hinske. I feel this may have been a freak out move after the 4 game sweep at Colorado and the horrible first game against the Marlins along with the struggles of D-Lee. Wouldn’t this also start his arbitration clock? However on the bright side, he can at least serve as a defensive replacement and just add to the multiple, good pinch-hitting options late in games.
It sounds like Beachy could be a useful, low-cost bullpen arm. We’ll need to replace a good chunk of the ‘pen next year (Wagner, Saito, Farnseworth at least). The worst thing that happens is that Beachy flames out and gets sent back down.
Looks like the Braves have found another Diamond in the rough, that is Scott Diamond what are your thoughts on him?
I haven’t seen him pitch since his tour of the Sally League in 2008. Didn’t think he was anything more than an org guy then. He currently has a 6.9 K/9 in the upper minors this year. I’m not impressed, despite the excellent results last night.
Look forward to seeing “The Beach” in The Show
This guys story is amazing. After college, my friend Kory Hollensteiner was playing in a league out east. He asked the coaches to take a look at Brandon as a favor. Brandon made the team and caught the eye of some scouts and got signed. Kory is a children’s minister now and Brandon is a stud. God has a plan for each of us.
Will anyone see the AFL action? Then we can follow Beachey7s progress. I am an x-swimmer :-) and it sounds a bit funny to imagine one of those kind of guys becoming a MLB pitcher. But hey I had the shoulders ;-)
I know several people that will be there.
Goldstein on Beachy (subscription required, ESPN Insider):
“Brandon Beachy, RHP, Atlanta Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett)
It’s likely that very few people would have picked Beachy to be the overall minor league ERA leader. Converted to starting at midseason, Beachy needed some innings in his final start, and he got them, firing six scoreless frames, with eight strikeouts, on his 24th birthday to leave him with a 1.73 ERA mark across Double- and Triple-A. Undrafted in 2008 out of tiny Indiana Wesleyan, Beachy is not some kind of fluke, as he’s a big, athletic right-hander with a low-90s fastball — that’s touched 94 mph at times — to go with a solid curve/change combination for secondary pitches. Not crazy stuff, but what makes him interesting is plus-plus command and control, as evidenced by his 48-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45 2/3 Triple-A innings. He’ll get a long look next spring, and might have to begin his big league career in a relief role, but plenty of scouts see a solid No. 4 or No. 5 starting job in his future.”
Good stuff as always Peter.
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[...] Philly, but it’s who the Braves have after Jair Jurrjens pulled up lame with a sore knee. Capitol Avenue reports that Beachy’s minor league record is just peachy (48-6 K/BB ratio) but that’s the thing [...]
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