TLR’d
September 7, 2010 at 12:24 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
You might have heard about the rift between Tony LaRussa and Colby Rasmus resulting in Rasmus requesting a trade from St. Louis. I won’t comment on the Cardinals’ management of the situation. However, this piece of news is certainly relevant to the Braves if the Cardinals do decide to trade Rasmus. If you haven’t noticed, Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Melky Cabrera aren’t good enough to play center field every day, and the Braves will most likely be shopping for a CF’er this Winter after they decline Ankiel’s option, non-tender Melky Cabrera, and fruitlessly try to trade Nate McLouth (who will most likely be retained as a reserve).
Enter Colby Rasmus, who will easily be the best available center fielder if the Cardinals will trade him. Rasmus is a 23-year-old Columbus, GA native. He hits and throws left handed. His best tool is his power, which he’s currently showing off in bunches with 19 homers in 367 AB’s and a .232 ISO. He strikes out a lot (about 26% of his MLB AB’s and 23% of his MiLB AB’s), but he walks a lot as well (about 9% of his MLB PA’s and 11% of his MiLB PA’s). He stole 74 bases in 3 full seasons-worth of AB’s in his minor league career and was caught only 17 times, but he’s only 13-for-20 in his MLB career. Regardless, he does run well–plenty well enough to be at least an average defender in CF with a plus arm to boot–and he has enough speed to be more than just a pick-a-spot base stealer. In short, he’s an impact player with plus tools across the board.
But arguably the biggest asset Rasmus possesses isn’t his tools, but his contract, which pays him around league minimum in 2011 and arbitration salaries in 2012-2014. Cost-controlled talent is the holy grail for sub-New-York-market teams, they spend countless resources to develop it. The opportunity to acquire it is rare, especially before the player reaches his first arbitration year.
Along those lines, it would take quite a bit to acquire Rasmus. In an effort to quantify exactly how much, Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory was kind enough to provide me with the ZiPS projected on-base average and slugging average for Colby Rasmus in 2011-2014:
As we all know, projection systems are far from perfect, but they do give us a decent proxy for future value, and they’re certainly better than just guessing.
Once we have OBA and SLG%, we can easily convert them to wOBA using the method detailed here, which we can then convert to runs and–with the assistance of a few fielding numbers and some playing time guesses–wins. Using the projections and 600 PA’s per season (aka best-case scenario WRT playing-time) leads us to about 4.1 wins per season, which for a player making league minimum in 2011 and arbitration-eligible 2012-2014 makes him a ~$48 million asset.
It may be true that Rasmus is likely to exceed his projected OBA and SLG% in the future. It’s also unlikely that he’ll stay healthy enough to accumulate around 2,400 PA’s between 2011 and 2014, meaning the 4.1 win figure is a fairly good estimate of his true talent level going forward.
As for any trade involving the Braves, the package naturally starts with pitching. In the case of acquiring an elite player like Rasmus, it starts with a MLB-ready pitcher. Assuming Tommy Hanson is off the table (though the two may be more or less the same in terms of value), Mike Minor, Jair Jurrjens, and Jonny Venters are the acceptable starting points.
Beyond that it’s a matter of adding prospects to the package to bring the value up to around $48 million. I suspect Randall Delgado would have to be involved, along with a couple of the more middling types. It’s an extremely steep price to pay–a starter or relief ace, plus a top-50 pitching prospect and others–but it’s also quite a blow for the Cardinals to part with a young, cost-controlled, elite player.
We don’t know what opportunities will be available during the off season, so this is nothing more than something to keep an eye on. But going into 2011 with a starting OF that includes Colby Rasmus and Jason Heyward is a pretty enticing proposition from here, and if Rasmus is in fact available, the Braves should consider it.
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Wow, that sounds like a hard call to make. I’d love to have him in CF though. Like you said, that’d be one intimidating outfield.
Couple of questions on Rasmus. LaRussa seems to be down on him for trying to pull and pop up too much. Can you crunch the numbers on that to see if it’s based on reality or just LaRussa fabricating a reason to not like the kid? Also, while his speed makes him acceptable for CF, just how natural is he there? Is he another McLouth, Ankiel, Matt Kemp type that can play CF but only because of physical tools since they take bad routes and routinely misplay balls?
And I also wonder, especially as far as price tag, if the dispute has gone to Pujols. His recent comments of the kid has to go, is a lot more damning than any beef with LaRussa. LaRussa may or may not be back, but the Cardinals will do everything in their power to keep their franchise happy, especially with him being able to hit the open market soon. If Pujols says he has to go, I have to imagine that drops the price tag considerably. JJ for Rasmus straight seems about even value to me. I’d love if they’d take a Medlen or Beachy, plus one or two others. They need middle IF help (Infante, among others?), bullpen help (EOF or Kimbrel, among others?), and help on the back end of their rotation (Beachy, Diamond, Medlen, perhaps KK or Lowe if we cover an enormous amount of salary?). Plus they seem a bit lacking in the minors, and with so much of their future payroll likely tied to Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, and Molina, they really need to improve their system to have some cheap, quality players to fill in around those 4.
If Pujols wants Rasmus gone (which I think is what matters, not LaRussa), I think we’d make for a great trade partner with the Cards.
I agree Rasmus would probably make a good acquisition (Isn’t there a relation to the Braves pitching prospect?). But I look at non-tender candidate Cody Ross as an obvious poor-man’s alternative. Ross would almost certainly under produce Rasmus, but could be obtained for much less.
Trevor, I agree that Cody Ross would be a good short-term solution for the Braves in CF. If they were to pursue Rasmus, I think it would be viewed as a fairly long-term solution (he’d still be cost controlled for 4 more years).
Also, I believe that Colby is the older brother of Braves pitching prospect Cory Rasmus.
Cody Ross
Colby Rasmus
Cory Rasmus
This discussion is going to get very confusing I’m afraid.
Mr. Sanchez,
I had that fear as well. Then every Cardinals fan I know responded with inordinate anger at Pujols for saying that. Then I read Passan’s article.
But I think Craig said it best:
“I’ve still yet to hear any explanation for why Rasmus’ playing time has been so wonky (one that makes any sense, anyway). Likewise, I’d be curious to know who leaked word that Rasmus had asked for a trade earlier this season, because the only person whose cause that helps to have out there is La Russa’s (i.e. Rasmus being difficult gives La Russa cover for jerking him around).
Rasmus may not understand that his best move is always to keep quiet, play well and let things sort themselves out until his power to control his own destiny increases with service time. But it seems to me that La Russa has a lot of run-ins with players that go public, and that reflects more poorly on La Russa than Rasmus’ immaturity reflects on him.”
I think it’s just another case of Tony LaRussa being the stubborn moron he is. How everyone views him as a great manager is beyond me. He sucks at managing off the field and his in-game strategies couldn’t possibly be worse.
IF we were to trade for Rasmus I wonder how much JJ would be the center piece. The way he has outperformed his numbers and the (biggest probably) fact that Boras is his agent might have something to do with it. Hanson would seem to be safe as he looks to produce greater upside than JJ and Minor is a lefty that shows great upside as well. Both Hanson and Minor have had their service time clocks started later than JJ and that might slide into the long term plans for the Braves better. Just spit balling. What do you think?
I’ll buy that line of thinking 100%, Eric.
Jurrjens is going to get expensive starting next year.
Oh, regarding the pull everything thing. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Colby Rasmus’s approach right now if he’s hitting .266/.352/.496. Trying to change it or telling him he’s wrong is wrong.
So it would take Minor / Jurrjens / Venters?
That’s a little rough. I would think that 2 of them would be enough.
Jair doesn’t get much love from the saber crowd, but i have a soft spot for him. He does enter arbitration in 2011.
I don’t know about you guys, but i would be thrilled if that happens. No more Melky/Ankiel… priceless.
…
Is Teheran unmovable for someone like Rasmus?
Pulling Everything: See Jones, Andruw. Or Bautista, Jose. I’ll take a .350+ OBP with .500 SLG, at any position, regardless of spray patterns. But from CF? Unquestionably worth premium talent.
Have to think this would be a painful trade for both sides to make, but if they really do think that he’s a knucklehead and want to move him, and would be willing to for Jurrjens, Delgado and pieces, I’d make that deal.
5-ish years of pre-FreeAgent control of CF, RF, 1B and at least one SP (minor), together with very friendly catcher contract, really allows the Braves to get away with a few other wonky contracts to fill out the other positions. You can afford premium bats at 3B or LF, you can afford over-pay contracts to some rotations spots if you think you’re going to get reliable innings or high ceilings, you can afford to play chicken with your arb-eligible young stars. It would be great.
I get a little more nervous about there moving Minor, with KK and Lowe unmovable for the next year at least and Medlen on the shelf, just b/c he gives them more flexibility and throws with the wrong hand. But you don’t get a chance to acquire a talen like Rasmus often. Gotta think everybody but Teheran and Salcedo is on the table, including Freeman (though hard to picture a scenario in which they let Pujols leave at this point in his career).
If we were to trade JJ along with minor leaguers this offseason then we’d be looking at
1) Hudson
2) Hanson
3) Lowe
4) Minor
5) Kawakami
For the vast majority (if not all, which I anticipate) of next season. Now I agree that adding Rasmus in this scenario looks good and would certainly add value in wins to our team, but what about SP depth? We’ve got to keep some SP arms around for the short term, or consider signing a long-relief/SP type in the offseason. That said, make this happen. The contract is really what’s amazing.
cameron – But they’d be able to afford, probably, to replace one of those from the market, and there are good reasons to think that someone like Parr, Redmond, Beachey or Teheran may be able to contribute by the second half of ’11, and in’12 Kawakami would come off the books, Medlen would be back, and there are good reasons to think that he, Beachey, Teheran and Vizcaino would be competing for the back two spots with Lowe, behind Hudson, Hanson Minor. Even Hoover appears to have righted his ship a bit (at the best pitchers park in MiLB…)
Yes, creates other holes. But a 4.5 starter is easier to replace than a premium CF. If Schafer gets it together, could use him to replace some of that.
I guess my point is that rasmus is a legitimate long term solution at a place where the Braves lack one, since Schafer’s derailed a bit. And there are lots of good ways to construct a team when you have manageable contracts, deep MiLB pitching and a premier development system.
Delgado should be untouchable. Jurrjens, Minor and Venters are the most expendable IMO. The Braves would be selling high with Venters. Jurrjens will not be signing with the Braves long term anyway. Minor, while nice, will probably max out as a #3 starter.
Guillermo/9,
I meant one of Jurrjens, Minor, and Venters. Not two or three. Maybe Venters plus one of the starters, but if that’s the case the Braves shouldn’t part with additional prospects.
CAC, many people think KK’s contract is unmoveable, what do you think?
They would have to eat some money, but not all of it. Between 1 and 4 million.
Peter/15:
Gotcha. Thanks.
i’d be most willing to get rid of jurjjens, but delgado and freeman should be off limits. i think we should sell high on brandon beachy as well.
Nevin- I agree absolutely. My only thought is that we don’t really know what we have in Minor for a full season and basically by definition don’t think Parr, Redmond, Beachy, are better than Lowe/KK, which makes our 3-5 positions potential liabilities, which I think Wren should keep an eye on. Longterm this deal makes way, way, too much sense not to do it. Trading JJ and a prospect or two for Rasmus is a no brainer since nearly all these problems disappear starting in 2012, but that is really only sure if we hold onto Teheran, Vizcaino, and potentially Delgado.
2012:
1) Hudson
2) Hanson
3) Medlen
4) Minor
5a) Lowe
5b) Teheran
6) Delgado
7 Vizcaino
I’ll write about this at length later, but I wouldn’t count on Vizcaino making it to the majors as a starter, I see him as a future closer.
I tend to agree with micah that there’s probably no need to include Delgado in this deal, and Jurrjens is far and away the best option. I think he’s the centerpiece if Wren approaches Mozeliak. No Venters, Minor, Freeman or Delgado would wind up in the deal imo, though they will probably be discussed at length. Something like Jurrjens + Beachy + other “B” prospects. The Cardinals would have a tough time turning down a deal with JJ in it, as he makes their rotation amazingly good and deep. I actually think this deal could go down. Like, for realzies.
Slightly off topic but it’s a damn shame Medlen got hurt, as the Braves would have definitely traded Kawakami (eating say $2m) and had a better rotation with Medlen over KK. Oh well.
I’m kinda growing attached to Venters listening to the games on the radio. “Every Day Johnny” he’s affectionately called. But I highly doubt that the Cardinals will be willing to take Jurrjens, and a potentially big contract to sign, especially when they already have two big contracts in Wainwright and Carpenter. Now, I don’t know about their long term, but thinking right here right now, I am not necessarily of the opinion that Jurrjens could take the place of either of those pitchers if one of them happens to come off the books. I don’t even know if I’d want to if I were the Cardinals even if Carpenter is getting older.
To think of 3 pitchers and 3 position players taking up almost all of your payroll, you’d be like the Miami Heat but quite worse off because you’re handcuffing yourself by being unable to keep any other players who happen to be worth much more than you’re willing or able to pay.
They can go year-to-year with Jurrjens.
I detest Tony LaRussa and am no fan of Pujols, but this Rasmus seems like a piece of work as well. They deserve one another. I don’t blame LaRussa for chafing at dealing with a helicopter parent. How about we raise our standards and look for a man to play CF? We don’t need boys.
anybody still like that Ankiel deal?
You’ll probably like Marchman’s take, Chris.
Thanks for the link, Peter. I do like Marchman’s take on the situation. There’s another young CF who has fallen out of favor who plays in Boston. I’d rather have that guy. He won’t cost as much, either.
I like Ellsbury fine. He’s Rasmus without the power.
Remember how everyone was so high on McLouth? How’d that turn out so far? No way I’d give up Jurrjens, some of the other guys, sure. Have at ‘em.
The moment I read this story on ESPN I started dreaming of the Braves trading for Rasmus. Wow, what would it be like watching the Braves with them actually having 2 legitimate MLB players in the outfield? I’m tired of them having the worst outfield in the league every year.
I really think JJ would be the centerpiece of a deal for Rasmus. And the Cards will deal him, as someone said, since he’s gotten on Albert’s bad side.
That said, TLR lost a lot of cred with me when he forced Ozzie Smith to compete with Royce Clayton for a job at the end of Ozzie’s career.
Sorry I’m not really interested in Colby Rasmus, the Braves already have the exact player in Nate McLouth. Take away 2010 and McLouth and Rasmus are the same player!
McLouth
2005-2009 (Per 162 games) .260 .342 .454 21HR 67RBI 22SB
Rasmus 2009-10 (Per 162 games) .262 .331 .455 22HR 67RBI 8SB
McLouth and Rasmus have had identical numbers if you take away this season for McLouth which has been a throw away year anyway. Why not just give McLouth another chance rather than trade the farm away for a player that doesn’t seem like much of an upgrade?
I’d LOVE to see Rasmus in a Braves uni, but that would make the starting lineup VERY lefthanded: Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Rasmus, McLouth (you know he’s going to end up in LF because no one will take him and the Braves are too stubborn to eat his contract and cut him). The Bravos would be better off pursuing a RH option in CF.
RGB,
Except Rasmus is 5 years younger and way more talented. This is a great example of what you’ve done does not = what you’re going to do.
Rasmus would be a great addition to the Braves,I could see basing a package of a few prospects specifically starting with Teheran,Delgado or Vizcaino.I see both Teheran & Delgado as front of the rotation starters in the future,Vizcaino I think will become a closer (think someone mentioned it above) & he really really reminds me of Rafael Soriano.That being said I would rather deal Delgado or Teheran with the pitching depth the Braves have.I know a lot of people are saying to trade Jurrjens but with the current situation the Braves are in (playoff contenders),it doesn’t make sense to deal a proven,reliable starter when you can deal a promising prospect who hasn’t pitched a full year at Double AA yet regardless of the money situation.I know a lot of people are prospect-crazy with all these young talented pitchers on the farm but I would rather have a proven 24 year old #2 starter whos been in the bigs for a few years then a 20 year old future ace pitching at Double AA.Getting Rasmus without dealing Jurrjens puts the Braves in a great position with two top outfielders & a great pitching staff while they will still have some good prospects down on the farm.
If the Braves even CONSIDER trading Jurrjens, Minor, or Venters, they will be me making a MAJOR mistake. The first two are sure rotation members for 2011 and beyond, while Venters has a good chance to become the closer (with Billy Wagner retired). Much more likely to be dealt is Kenshin Kawakami, maybe a couple of minor-league prospects, and another outfielder, maybe Matt Diaz or Melky Cabrera. Pitching is the backbone of the Braves and much harder to find than a solid centerfielder. And Nate McLouth has shown much improvement since his return from Triple-A anyhow. P.S. The Braves need RIGHTHANDED power.
Danny/36,
What does it mean, “proven”? I’ve never understood this. I don’t need Teheran, Delgado, or Vizcaino to prove anything, I know what they’re going to do if they stay healthy (same risk for MLB players). The Braves don’t need them to prove anything, they’ve done their homework. If whatever team we’re trading with has evaluated properly, they don’t need the players to prove anything, either.
The Braves won’t trade Teheran. It’s a good thing too, because he’s way better than any player on the Braves roster this side of Jason Heyward. Teheran and Heyward are this team’s ticket out of the ‘don’t have any star power’ cellar.
Dan/37,
I don’t agree at all. In fact, I think it would be a mistake to hold on to Jurrjens too long. He’s not staying beyond 2013 and they have an acceptable replacement for him right now in Brandon Beachy. Better to cash in within the next 18 months and get something very valuable, before he gets too expensive.
If you deal crap you’re going to get crap back. Diaz and Melky are non-tenders IMO, and Kawakami ain’t worth his contract. I also don’t think the Braves are going to be comfortable handing a starting spot to Nate McLouth. He’ll probably stay with the team in 2011 (because nobody wants to take on $7.75 million), but I think it’ll be as a reserve.
Regarding right handed power, yeah, they do need some. The thing is, they need a center fielder and a left fielder. I imagine they’ll sign a Pat Burrell type to play LF.
So who remembers who we (the Braves) selected in the 2005 draft?? The answer is Joey Devine. Where is he now? I beleive we selected 24th that year. Who remebers who was selected 27th that year by the Cardinals?? Thats right, Colby Rasmus. I think we botched that one! We could have drafted him and not be in this spot, thinking about trading the farm for someone we could have drafted! Rasmus signed for 1 mil that year. I believe we paid devine like 900k.
CAC
Until Teheran & Delgado prove they can pitch at the major league level they are nothing more then highly ranked minor league prospects.Jurrjens while not the greatest pitcher in the world shows that he can get it done at the major league level,while Teheran & Delgado haven’t yet.Just because they can dominate in the minors,doesnt mean they will do the same in the majors.
Well after trading Wainwright for 1 year of JD Drew, i would be real hesitant to trade away teheran or delgado
I don’t agree with that at all. They’re playing the same game in Pearl, Mississippi that they are in Atlanta, GA. Needing a player to prove something is basically saying ‘I don’t know’. Baseball teams have spent enough resources on evaluation to know for sure (beyond things they can’t control, like injuries).
JJ and DeVall would be enough to get Rasmus from Cardinals grasp. Venters goes nowhere as long as we battle the Phillies every year and they still have Howard and Utley. Anyone allowing Teheran or Delgado to pitch anywhere other than with a Tomahawk on their chest needs to resign from their GM’s job and enter this current job market because they suffer from mush-head syndrome…imo. Does Wainwright ring a bell…we gave him up for 1 year of J “DL” Drew and Eli Marrero? Don’t even get me going about that Rangers deal either!
I hope ‘ole Lowell DeVall ain’t reading this, but Brett DeVall hasn’t hit 88 MPH in over a year and has absolutely no trade value.
Pretty sure Devall reinjured his elbow, will be having TJ surgery and miss 2011.
And on the comment way above, if picking between the two, I think I might prefer Ellsbury to Rasmus. I think he’d cost less in return, plus he’d add the element of speed in leadoff that we’ve lacked since Furcal, allowing us to go Ellsbury, Prado, Heyward 1-2-3 next year, with Chipper, McCann, Freeman, Gonzalez, and probably McLouth filling in behind them. (Maybe we add Cody Ross for around $5m and he can split LF with McLouth).
Although if we do target Rasmus, maybe we can target a bit of a bad deal swap too, Lowe for Lohse to negate the package of younger players we’d have to part with.
I forgot to include Infante in that group. Now that I say that, I’d really want us to make Ellsbury priority #1 this off season. I’m really enticed by that top 3, with Infante able to help at 3B and LF, Chipper at 3rd when healthy, McLouth in LF (maybe Cody Ross?), Gonzalez at SS, McCann and Ross at C, Freeman and maybe Glaus (I can’t see anyone offering him starter money, unless it’s an AL team that thinks he can DH) at 1B.
Compared to Rasmus, I think he’d come much cheaper considering he’s a good bit older, doesn’t have the sexy sizzle of HRs, and has spent the year battling various injury with little to no production while Rasmus has had the best #s of his career.
All of this depends on what Tony LaRussa does. He is telling some of the people that he’s not managing the Cardinals next season (he has his own issues with Cards management, namely the GM) and he’s telling other people he expects to be extended a couple of more seasons. Just because Colby Rasmus’ dad and brother can’t stay off of baseball message boards doesn’t mean LaRussa and Rasmus can’t co-exist. LaRussa may be arrogant and Rasmus may be immature but neither guy is stupid enough to blow up a good baseball situation with one of the sport’s best organizations.
Other than Hudson, Hanson, Teheran, and maybe Minor, none of the Braves pitchers are untouchable to me. They make a fine trading partner for Rasmus. Having a multi tooled CF is worth the price of a proven pitcher and two minor leaguers.