On The Postseason Roster
October 4, 2010 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
The Braves will carry 11 pitchers and 14 position players on their post season roster. Some of the spots are obvious, the three main starting pitchers (Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson), the eight starting position players (Brian McCann, Derrek Lee, Brooks Conrad, Alex Gonzalez, Omar Infante, Nate McLouth, Rick Ankiel, Jason Heyward), and the five big relievers (Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan).
This leaves six bench spots and three pitching staff roles up in the air. Diory Hernandez has to make the roster because he’s the only back-up infielder on the roster. David Ross makes the roster as the back-up catcher. Matt Diaz will be on the roster to bolster the line-up against left-handed pitching. Eric Hinske will make the roster as a pinch-hitting threat, possible DH, four-corners insurance, and proverbial ‘good luck charm’. There are three candidates for the final two bench spots: Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, and Freddie Freeman. With Hinske and Diaz already in the fold, the team could opt to go with two more pinch-hitters in Freeman and Glaus–and that’s what I would do. Freeman could also be used as a late-innings defensive replacement. They’d like to have Troy Glaus as a right-handed power threat off the bench, I’d think. But then again Bobby seems to like having Melky around, so I don’t know if they’d prefer to have him, rather than Glaus or Freeman, on the roster. With how infrequently they’ve been inclined to use Glaus as of late, he may be the odd man out. Or given Freeman’s lack of experience and the presence of a LH-pinch-hitter and back-up first baseman in Hinske, he may be the odd man out. But I’m guessing they’ll roll with Glaus and Freeman so they can pinch-hit early and showcase their impressive relief corps, rather than carrying a sixth (read: unnecessary) outfielder whose really a useless player.
It seems like Eric O’Flaherty won’t be fit to pitch in the postseason, at least not the NLDS, so they’ll use Michael Dunn as their third lefthander out of the bullpen. That leaves seven candidates for the final pair of roster spots:
Christhian Martinez
Kyle Farnsworth
Scott Proctor
Brandon Beachy
Jair Jurrjens
Kenshin Kawakami
Mike Minor
You can go ahead and cross Kenshin Kawakami, Mike Minor, and Scott Proctor off the list, they’re not making the postseason roster. If Jurrjens is healthy enough to pitch, he’ll make the roster as the ‘emergency NLDS starter’ and 4th starter if they make it past the NLDS. If not, Brandon Beachy will get the call. But either way, there’s a great chance Beachy will make the roster as the seventh reliever, the long man so to speak. Kyle Farnsworth has pitched well enough on a fielding-independent basis (25 K’s, 7 BB’s, 2 HR in 20 IP), but his 5.40 ERA and the memories of 2005 likely mean he doesn’t make the cut. The story is much the same for Christhian Martinez, whose 22-to-6 K/BB ratio and 1.0 HR/9 in 26 innings make him a serviceable option, but his 4.85 ERA and lack of MLB experience is probably enough to keep him off the roster. Regardless, it’s nice to know two somewhat competent options are waiting in the wings should a pitcher injure himself.
Here’s my roster prediction:
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It would be beyond wonderful to see Melky missing from the roster, but I can’t see that happening. The Melkman has postseason experience, after all.
I don’t see Melky being left off either. Or Glaus for that matter. I think Freeman is the odd man out and that’s ok.
Interesting analysis and agree with the main points, but I’m not sure whether this is what you hope the roster to be or what you really “predict” would happen. Because in the real world, where Bobby Cox is making the post-season roster, I can’t see Melky not making the team.
1. He’s been with major league team all season. Hell, he’s still a platoon starter.
2. He can switch-hit, giving possibility of being used in any type of pinch hit situation (or so Bobby would convince himself).
3. He has the “experience” of being on a winning team.
4. He’s got very good rapport with the Latin players. (remember how much chemistry is important in Bobby Cox teams)
Does it really make sense to take 5 full-time outfielders (especially with Hinske’s ability to play corner outfield positions)? Absolutely no. But, then again I just don’t see how Bobby drops Melky.
I would guess the one being dropped would be Freeman. Since, Bobby would figure he’d be the one who’ll take the news most easily. And plus, he hasn’t been anything special during his time on the extended roster. (4 hits in 24 ABs)
As for the bullpen roles, I don’t know if Bobby takes both Jurrjens and Beachy, although I do know Beachy did pitch out of the bullpen for part of the year in AA, so I guess he could be a possibility for long relief. Although, for a 5-game series, I don’t know if there’s really a need for a long relief pitcher, and Bobby may be concerned about Saito’s health enough to feel the need for Farnsworth.
Personally, I think Jurrjens will not be on the roster for NLDS. He may be added for NLCS. So I would say Beachy as the spot starter/long relief and Farnsworth taking the left-over spot.
Melky shall be there. Melky shall play. Melky shall err!
I would love to see Freeman make the roster over Cabrera, but it’s just not happening… If bobby has the confidence to bat him 5th, and run him out there as much as he did, I just don’t see him being the odd man out.
I also don’t know if I see Jurjjens making this roster. I think they would have liked to have seen him pitch at least an inning or two over the weekend to justify his inclusion on the roster. We also haven’t heard much about his injury status recently…
At first I didn’t remember they changed the rules first about player injury… and was about to write how you excluded the obligatory useless third catcher spot.
I wonder how many games the braves lost over the years by having a useless third catcher off the bench? I remember JS tried to compromize with bobby by trading for guys who COULD play catcher in a pinch, but didn’t…
Bobby’s penchant for vets has me agreeing with Nick above.
And I just don’t see Jurrjens as healthy enough, at least not for the NLDS. That leaves Farnsworth back in the fold (we have to prove the trade wasn’t worthless right?) In addition to the health reason leaving Jurrjens off, the NLDS itself gives another reason. Why not let him keep resting and rehabbing that knee (independent of if you think our medical people can properly assess and rehab the injury), and then hopefully be closer to full strength for a possible NLCS start. If you want work against live bats, he can head down to instructs in Orlando for a few days and face the kids there. But there is no reason we can’t go Lowe, Hanson, Hudson, and if games 4 and 5 become necessary there’s Lowe (short rest in 4) and Hanson (normal rest in game 5).
Some questions:
1. Do you think Bobby will plan to use only 3 SP? In our series, the Game 1 starter would be on short rest for Game 4.
2. Do the Braves get to “reset” the roster before each series? Or once it’s set, do they only get to make changes in case of injury? Morneau is talking like he hopes to be ready for ALCS even though he’s out for the DS, but that could just be injury-related.
3. We know Bobby likes to play the mythical hot hand; does Diaz’s 3 hits yesterday, all off righties, get him a start vs RHP? He may be my favorite player, but I don’t think that’s a good idea.
I’d rather have Christhian than Beachy, but I understand the need to have a long-man/mop-up guy.
I also wonder if Glaus’s lack of playing time recently means he’s not in the plans.
I can’t see Bobby leaving Melky off the roster but we can hope
Bobby always liked to carry 3 catchers on the postseason roster, I wonder if he will do that this time too.
Yeah, I gotta believe that Melky makes it over the rookie Freeman. Melks has got the infamous “playoff experience” and between Glaus, Hinske, and Lee…we have plenty of 1Bs. If Freddie was lighting it up, I think it might be a tougher decision, but I think Melky is the choice.
Plus, I think Bobby likes Melky’s “flexibility” in the OF…which would allow him to move Diaz, McLouth, and Ankiel around and pinch-hit/double-switch when necessary.
As for the bullpen, I agree that the Farns is out.
Why does Nate McLouth deserve a spot? Defense?
Last I checked Freeman isn’t postseason elligible UNLESS someone on the 25 man roster gets hurt and the replacement player plays that position. Therefore, either Glaus, Hinske, or DLee has to get hurt. So, that means the final two spots will be occupied by Glaus and Melky. As for the bullpen, I really hope Bobby brings Kimbrel over Farnie..
Agree 100%. Hopefully Melky is the odd man out.
Every player in the organization is eligible for the postseason roster.
Also, I know the chances are probably zero of him being on the roster, but what are the rules on allowing Chipper to have Kirk Gibson-like roster spot/moment? (I’m assuming they’d be the same rules for Morneau playing this postseason)
Do you really think they’ll have Saito on the 25-man given his shaky appearance on Saturday? It’s not clear exactly what kind of pitcher he is at this point…maybe Farnsworth or Martinez would be safer bets.
Brad/15,
They could do that but they lose the flexibility of adding any position player to the roster. Zero chance of that happening anyway.
Hizouse/7,
1) I think so, yes.
2) Yes.
3) I could see it happen, but I think Bobby will know better than to start Diaz at AT&T Park vs. Tim Lincecum.
You’d rather have Christhian than Beachy? I dunno about that. Beachy’s performed very well.
And I think it’s definetly possible that Glaus gets left off.
Lance/11,
He’s one of the three best outfielders we have against right-handed pitching.
rlsmithj/4, that literally made me laugh out loud.
Unfortunately, I agree that Melky will be on the roster. Looking at the choices, Freeman seems like the best option, but I just can’t see Bobby leaving off a guy that’s been with the big club for the whole season. Has he ever done that before? Especially a guy with “postseason experience”? If Freeman had come up and raked, maybe, but he didn’t.
Given Jurrjens’ performance and health issues, I find myself hoping for Beachy/Farnsworth rather than Jurrjens/Beachy. And I also think Saito is potentially still up in the air….though I hope not. If he’s healthy, he is lights out.
I will say that Freeman’s performance was better than his results.
Really hope Melky is left off and Glaus is taken. I don’t love the way Glaus is swinging these days, but he’s much more useful to the Braves than Melky Worst case of needing an extra outfielder: Glaus to 3B, Infante to the outfield.
I actually like a rotation of Lowe-Hanson-Hudson-Lowe-Hanson best at this point, with Hudson lined up to start NLCS if they make it. If they get that far, don’t relish the mental image of flyball Beachy pitching in either bandbox @Cincy or @Philly. Would rather see them give Jurrjens the Division Series to rest up, maybe a tuneup, and plug him in as needed.
Also would love to see then use Wagner in earlier high-leverage situations than the 9th.
But won’t hold my breath.
Nevin/20,
Great point about Beachy in the tough parks. Although he’ll probably only get 1 NLDS start if they make it, and it might come at Turner Field.
14/CAC,
I thought there are postseason eligibility rules. You have to be on the 25 man roster as of August 31st (or disabled list). That’s why they brought up McLouth and Freeman on that day…
Why is rick ankiel on the team? I’m assuming its the defense but I’d rather have a guy that can make the routine plays and be a much bigger offensive threat (Hinske or Diaz even vs the righties). McClouth can play CF (or Melkey) I’m confused by all the hate for Melkey but nobody says anything about Rick “I can’t do anything but strikeout” Ankiel?
I think that Glaus playing through his injury, instead of shutting it down and trying to recuperate, has played to his downfall this season. It’s basically the Kawakami effect. You play so badly for so long that you find your place on the bench and you don’t move.
That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bobby leaves him off, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he brought Glaus in.
-In the end, if this is all you read of my post, I’d take Freeman’s upside (and potential failure) over Glaus/DLee’s bad *insert body part here* (and potential upside).
Also, just want to point out something from the AJC. Apparently the Braves have used 109 different lineups this year.
That just blows my mind, I didn’t think it was that many different changes.
Jon Says:
October 4th, 2010 at 1:28 PM
Also, just want to point out something from the AJC. Apparently the Braves have used 109 different lineups this year.
That just blows my mind, I didn’t think it was that many different changes.
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Keep in mind that the many combinations multiply when you throw in all of the different starting pitchers.
No way Melky is left off of the roster. Melky has been in the lineup regularly all year, is well liked in the clubhouse, has playoff experience, and can provide versaility in late innings. Glaus seems like the odd man out here, Bobby didn’t seem to want to use him at all.
[...] have until Thursday to finalize their 25-man postseason roster, but until then, check out the projected playoff roster over at the great Capitol Avenue Club [...]
Thomas/22,
The playoff eligibility rules are:
1) Must be on the active roster on August 31st.
OR
2) Must be in the organization on August 31st and replacing an injured player at the same position (just pitcher-for-pitcher and position player-for-position player).
With Chipper and Medlen on the 60-day DL they can use any player in the organization on their postseason roster.
Seriously guys….do ya’ll really think Ankiel should be in the starting lineup? It really does seem like he strikes out 3 or 4 times a game. With the exception of the game at Wrigley he strikes out in every big at bat. Id rather have a pitcher batting than him with a runner on third and less than 2 outs.
Thomas/22: to add just a bit to CAC/29: bringing up McLouth August 31 means that the Braves don’t have to use Chipper’s or Medlen’s (or Prado’s, I guess) spot to include him on the post-season roster. McLouth took Kawakami’s roster spot that day, which meant the Braves figured McLouth was more likely to make the postseason roster than Kawakami.
Freeman was brought up September 1, so they’d have to use one of the DL slots to put him on the post-season roster.
I seriously would not waste a relief pitcher spot by putting Jurrjens on the roster in the NLDS. JJ is not going to start and if he is coming in relief, then there are issues w/ the score of that particular game. He is not a RH specialist, and if they needed a “spot” starter for another game, then I think Beachy can hold his own, considering he has the same amount of playoff experience as JJ. Therefore I would leave off JJ and, yes, add Farnsworth as a hard-throwing RHP in relief.
31/Hizouse:
So wouldn’t that mean they can’t have Beachy, Kimbrel, and Dunn since all were September callups? Is it 1:1 injured player:replacement?
Dunn will take O’Flaherty’s spot, Beachy will take Medlen’s. I think Kimbrel was on the active roster in time.
Is it set in stone that they are going to go with 11 pitchers? I think that in a five game series with S.F that they should go with only 10. Four starters and 6 relievers, I would leave JJ off and include Melky even thought he is a waste.
It is set in stone because their roster on August 31st included 11 pitchers and 14 position players.
Sighs….how is Melky a waste and Ankiel isnt? Any discrepancy with the glove is more than made up for by the bat (and that is saying a lot considering Melky is an average, at best, hitter). Seriously don’t understand how Ankiel makes a living with a bat in his hands.
CAC,
The problem with leaving off Melky Cabrera is that the Braves leave themselves vulnerable to a left handed starter. Do you want Ankiel and/or McLouth (both hitting under .200 against lefties) making automatic outs against Barry Zito or Jonathan Sanchez (or Cole Hamels if we got that far) as the CF, when Melky would give you a better chance (hitting .233 against them)? Melky hits better against lefties AND righties than McLouth.
Personally I see NO reason to keep McLouth over Melky. Despite what perceptions there are, McLouth is not any better defensively than Melky, particularly in LF. Ankiel has definite defensive abilities beyond the other two and he hits righties way better than the other two, so he has value as the left handed CF. But I think you do better to use Melky as the right handed CF and left handed LF. Unless Bobby wants to let Hinske play LF, which based on the past few weeks I don’t think he does. He wants to keep Hinske in his pocket so he can deploy him at a critical situation to maximize what he can do.
Kevin,
Agreed they are both wastes, and Joe I would take Mclouth over Melky both in the field and at the plate any day of the week.
Kevin/37,
Ankiel is a decidedly better hitter than Melky and he’s actually an asset in the field, rather than a liability.
Joe/38,
I don’t think McLouth’s statistics this year are indicative of his true talent level at all.
The rumor here in New York is that the reason that Robinson Cano had a breakout year was that they got Melky out of town.
Capitol Avenue Club Says:
October 4th, 2010 at 4:39 PM
Kevin/37,
Ankiel is a decidedly better hitter than Melky and he’s actually an asset in the field, rather than a liability.
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Waatt??? Melky has 20 points higher avg. Neither have good OBP or SLG (though Ankiel is insignificanly/marginally ahead). Ankiel strikes out literally 3x as much (I swear half of which was less than 2 outs and runner at third).
Ankiel was a former pitcher and continues to hit like one. Granted, he is above avg. with a glove but there are a hundred guys in the minors that cant play a good CF and be that awful at the plate.
KC take him off my hands and give me back Gregor.
Kevin/42
Wait, I’m new to baseball, Kevin. After reading your comment I now understand that batting average is a really super important statistic. So like, if the Cardinals offered us Albert Pujols for Omar Infante we should totally turn them down, because Omar has a higher batting average this year. Okay, now I’m getting the hang of this.
So even though Rick Ankiel’s career OPS is 50 points higher, we should use Melky since his batting average is higher.
God damnit, go to a bookstore and by BASEBALL BETWEEN THE NUMBERS. Don’t comment on this site until you’ve read the fucking book.
excuse me buy*
Thomas/42
LOL @ mistaking Ankiel for a power hitter. Your argument would hold water if there is a MEANINGFUL difference in their power numbers.
Like comparing Hudson’s power numbers at the plate to Hanson. Hell, Hudson has hit a home run this year and Hanson has not, so he obviously has a lot more power at the plate.
I’m just saying that Melky would have driven in several of those runs that Ankiel leaves on third after striking out. He had one stretch of like 11 of 13 ABs with strikeouts. He literally has struck out 3x (per PA) than Melky.
And forget “career” numbers, lets look at this year. I mean hell, are you saying we should get Hank Aaron out of retirement to play in the post season (if it were allowed)? He has the best career #s of any of em.
I don’t know why, but I love Ankiel and his huge hacks. I don’t care if he connects 10 percent of the time. We need at least a little defense in the outfield.
Has there been new info on if Jurrjens is getting any better or he still just a crippled mass?
I mean hell, are you saying we should get Hank Aaron out of retirement to play in the post season (if it were allowed)? He has the best career #s of any of em.
Please.
Jeff/47,
Last I heard he was ”available to pitch in relief during the Phillies’ series”. So, I have no idea.
There is a new thread, BTW.
Capitol Avenue Club Says:
October 4th, 2010 at 5:55 PM
I mean hell, are you saying we should get Hank Aaron out of retirement to play in the post season (if it were allowed)? He has the best career #s of any of em.
Please.
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Obviously my point is: is it even possible for career statistics to be any more irrelevant in a time like this? NO- it is what can you do for me NOW. And right NOW Rick Ankiel is just plain God awful at the plate. #s don’t lie- hell he strikes out once every three at bats (and yes, thats THIS SEASON (not the past week/month/etc.) Most pitchers aren’t that bad at the plate.