Derek Lowe is the right one
October 6, 2010 at 11:12 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Because of the fact that–rather than coasting into the tournament–the Braves had to deploy every available resource to earn their postseason berth, there wasn’t much of a choice to make regarding their game one starter. Derek Lowe is the only one of their front three with postseason experience and available to start on regular rest, making the decision automatic. But even if they hadn’t started Tim Hudson last weekend and Tommy Hanson had made a pair of dominant postseason starts last year, Derek Lowe is the correct choice to start game one.
In five September starts, Derek Lowe was phenomenal, posting a 1.17 ERA in 30 and 2/3 innings. Normally when something like this happens (pitcher goes on an incredible run during September after 61 consecutive mediocre starts), it’s nothing more than an illusion, usually with unsustainably good fortune on balls in play being the primary culprit. Such is not the case. In fact, Derek Lowe’s BABIP is .322 in September, meaning you could reasonably expect him to give up fewer hits given another thirty innings of identical performance. Hit luck is not what’s at play here.
Over his 30 and 2/3 September innings, Lowe struck out 29 batters and walked 3, which represents several phenomenal ratios. But that’s not the only outstanding peripheral Lowe can boast for for his September performance. When batters put the ball in play off of Lowe, they hit ground balls sixty eight percent of the time, which is equally phenomenal. Line drives were struck only thirteen percent of the time, and batters lifted the ball into the air just short of nineteen percent of the time. Furthermore, when they did manage to hit a fly ball, it didn’t make it out of the infield twelve percent of the time.
His September FIP was 1.90, his xFIP was 2.24, his batted-ball FIP was 1.66, his SIERA was 2.17. Pick any ERA estimator you like, but you’ll come to pretty much the same conclusion: he pitched about as well–that is, incredibly well–as his ERA would indicate.
Now that we’ve established that Lowe pitched as brilliantly as his results in September, a bit on what’s responsible for his miraculous turn-around. The answer is quite simple: the slider. From opening day to August 29th, Lowe threw his fastball (sinker) approximately 73% of the time, his slider 14% of the time, and his change-up 13% of the time. From September 8th through season’s end, Lowe more than doubled his slider usage, throwing it around 33% of the time. In fact, his pitch usage pattern in September is nearly identical to his usage pattern in 2008. If you’ll recall, in 2008 Lowe was a 5-win pitcher, posting a 3.24 ERA (and a nearly identical 3.26 FIP and 3.35 xFIP; his ERA was not a fluke) over 211 innings and the ace of a Dodgers’ staff that made it to the NLCS.
In September, batters swung-and-missed at Lowe’s slider 19% of the time–about 30 percent more than the MLB average. He generated nearly as many strikeouts as he allowed hits with the pitch. Using the slider more is almost exclusively responsible for Lowe’s miraculous turn-around. In 2008, Lowe’s slider was responsible for nearly three wins by itself*. It’s his best pitch when he has it working, and when he has command of it the more he throws it the better (within reason). Right now he has it working beautifully, and as a result he’s distinguished himself as the clear-cut best option to start game one.
*With all the usual game theory assumptions applied.
Lowe’s Atlanta career has been an up-and-down experience, mostly down, but he’s figured out how to maximize his talents at the correct time. His contract deserves to be revisited in an entirely different post (and it will be over the Winter), but that’s not particularly high on the list of organizational priorities at the moment. Front and center is winning playoff games, and as well as Lowe has thrown the ball in September he gives the team the best chance of winning them.
When you look around at the other seven game one starters: Edinson Volquez, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Francisco Liriano, David Price, Cliff Lee, and Lowe’s game one opponent Tim Lincecum, you’d think Derek Lowe is a strong candidate for the worst of the group. But given how well he’s pitched as of late, it’s not clear to me at all that any one of them is a better option than Derek Lowe right now. I say this with all the sincerity in the world and without a hint of homerism, and if Derek Lowe maintains his September approach and command tomorrow, he’ll be the better pitcher on the field and he’ll give the Braves an excellent chance to win.
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Let the right one in.
I’m a big Lowe fan. Go Lowe.
I completely agree. Love the way Lowe has modified his approach and the results it has produced. Interesting how 2 “former” top of the rotation starters in the NL east have sort of reinvented themselves by using one pitch more frequently (the other would be Oswalt and his new found changeup) with outstanding results.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: Derek Lowe is the right one (or, you better be pumped about the game tomorrow) — http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3110 [...]
Unrelated–
Back of the envelope slash line for Heyward, minus the thumb-injury June:
.324/.440/.534
Now, I know we’ve gone over the leaving-out-outlier-stats debate, but I think when we have such a clear causal story as the thumb injury, I think it is fair to leave out that data, given that what I am looking for (right now) is the true talent of a healthy Heyward.
For comparison:
Joey Votto: .324/.424/.600
Albert Pujols: .312/.414/.596
In short, Heyward’s healthy performance this year would have led the majors in OBP, and combined with his elite defense in RF, made him a legitimate short-list MVP candidate.
Conclusion: Man, the future looks pretty damn good.
Nathan/4,
Yes.
If Heyward stays healthy, he is going to win multiple MVP awards, lead the league in OBP, SLG%, OPS, and wOBA plenty of times. He’ll win a batting title or two, and he’ll make it to the HoF. He’s the most talented player the Braves have developed since John Smoltz. The key is keeping him healthy, because injuries are quite literally the only thing wrong with him.
“The key is keeping him healthy, because injuries are quite literally the only thing wrong with him.”
Well then teach him to slide feet-first. Prado too while you’re at it. A head-first slide by each of them might have cost us first place and very nearly cost us the wild card.
Sliding feet-first is literally no safer than sliding head-first according to Will Carrol. He says sliding head-first results in more serious injuries, but sliding feet-first results in injuries occurring more frequently, such that overall there’s no overall diffence in using the head-first slide more frequently. His basis for this opinion is supposedly empirical.
I may be making a mistake in taking his opinion at face value, but he’s as informed a person on sports injuries as I’ve ever known of and doesn’t seem like the type to bullshit.
The bigger question is why did Lowe get away from his slider to begin with? And why did no one notice or bother to point this out to him and correct it?
I think that early last season, he lost the ability to throw his slider consistently for strikes. To the naked eye, it looks like it has more break on it now as well.
CAC at 5,
Most talented player developed since Smoltz? I am questioning what you mean by talented. Chipper Jones is definitely “since Smoltz” and I think the volume of Chipper’s career is better overall than Smoltz (that may be where we disagree). Maybe by “talented” you mean “at his best for a moderate sustained time, how good was he.” And, even by that latter test, I would have probably said Andruw Jones. Late 90′s his pretty good but not elite offense combined with possibly the best fielding of all time in Major League history was a pretty good overall sustained run.
Interested in your thoughts on this.
at 9 I meant the best fielding BY A CENTERFIELDER in major league history.
I’m loving the way DLowe’s been throwing lately, but look at the teams he faced: the Nats twice, and the pirates from what I can remember. Both of these teams are strikeout prone. Still, amazing numbers.
@4 Jason is a beast, but do we really think .440 OBP is a reasonable expectation going forward?
@7 I slid into a bag (not counting the plate) literally once my whole life, on a triple and couldn’t drive a ball the rest of the year, my wrist hurt so bad. A few hundred feet first slides never got me anything more than an uncomfortable strawberry.
I feel very confident with Lowe taking the bump in game one. Of course, with our bats against Linecum and horrid defense the second half, I probably shouldn’t feel too confident.
Not to mention Derek Lowe has been a big-game pitcher throughout his career. I’m not one to overly weight things like “experience” but I think with starting pitchers moreso than anyone, the feeling of “I’ve done this before” has a strong effect. Lowe has typically pitched well for us in big games; ie. Season openers, big road games, down the stretch in September.
I still would have preferred not having to pitch Huddy in #162 and have him start game 1, but I have no qualms about starting Lowe. And it means we save possibly our best pitcher for game 2 or 3, when we possibly have a better chance to win anyways considering the opposing starters.
Kind of a different topic, but has there ever been any kind of study, or any thoughts about mixing your rotation up so that your #1 doesn’t face the other teams’ #1, basically conceding the first game. This would only be done in the case where the other teams’ #1 is the vastly better pitcher and your #’s 2 and below are stronger than the other teams’.
11,
Those are the same Nationals (and Pirates for that matter) that seem to hammer every one of our other pitchers, so I believe you are taking away something from D-Lowe there. Those teams are bad, but they are bad because of their pitching staffs for the most part, not their hitting.
@9,
I thought the same thing about the most talented Brave since Smoltz comment. My first reaction is that Andruw and Chipper would at least be considered on par with Smoltz in terms of either career production or physical talents. It’s definitely nitpicking on a comment, but I’d be curious to see CAC’s explanation for ranking Smoltz above the Joneseses (sp?).
I think Chipper has been more valuable but if Smoltz had stayed healthy enough to make 30 starts every year he’d have been.
Woops my last comment was directed at Dattebayo (12) not 11.
As far as Smoltz goes, and I don’t wanna speak for CAC (but I will anyway ;) ), I think you have to read how CAC words that. He said the best player the Braves have “developed” since Smoltz. When the Braves got him, he was far from a finished product, but he had a lot of raw talent. Chipper was a #1 overall draft pick, and Andruw had so much success at a young age that the Braves didn’t really do a whole lot to develop his game further (probably what led to his demise).
Now I know Heyward was a first round draft pick, but he still has a lot of development to come, which is extremely exciting. I’m not going to put all of the blame of Andruw’s downfall on the Braves, but the Braves will definitely have a much more active hand in ensuring Heyward reaches his potential would be my guess.
Okay, I’ve rambled enough.
Re: feet-first vs. head-first slides
Ricky Henderson said on some MLB Network telecast this season that he slid head first to save his legs from the pounding they would have otherwise taken. Of course, he was running A LOT and this is clearly anecdotal, but is worth thinking about. Nonetheless, I was at Turner Field Saturday and Sunday and cringed when Jason slid head first on Sunday. Was it his triple or when he stole third?
@Harris
Both I believe. And both were pretty unnecessary if I recall – as in no slide at all was needed.
Jason likes to slides head first so much that my cringing muscles have gone numb.
Just remember, it’s not less safe than sliding feet-first!
I don’t think anything of it when Heyward slides head-first. I barely notice it. If the topic hadn’t been brought up here I would have needed to think long and hard had someone asked me if Heyward slides feet-first or head-first.
Regardless of the level of safety of either type of slide, Heyward slides in general more than he should. Of course it is exciting, but I’ve seen way too many injuries come from slides.
And you know all about how awesome the Braves medical staff is with that stuff CAC…
It is probably true that Heyward slides too much
I hadn’t seen that WC says sliding either way is about the same; I’m not sure I trust him on anything remotely related to statistics, like a “study” on injuries from slides would be. But he certainly knows a lot more than I do.
I believe I remember that the Astros use to fine playes for sliding head-first; anyone confirm? Prado also hurt himself sliding headfirst this year, and Utley was another high profile case.
Regardless, one knock on Heyward entering this year was that he gets nicked up too often, and he didn’t do anything to dispel that rumor this season. When people talk above about his true, injury-free talent level, keep in mind that there’s a good chance he will rarely be 100% healthy for prolonged periods of time.
I really hope someone sits him down and tells him to quit sliding so often, and be honest and tell us when you’re hurting.
and fwiw, I’d say that Andruw had as much “talent” as Heyward, and while I hope J-Hey is better, I’d be thrilled to take an Andruw-type career. 68.5 fWAR (59.9 bWAR) in 11+ Atlanta seasons–that’s quite good.
Also, nice article on D-Lowe; it gives me hope, and I hadn’t noticed the increase in sliders.
Just curious, did you write this line – “But given how well he’s pitched as of late, it’s not clear to me at all that any one of them is a better option than Derek Lowe right now” – before or after Halladay’s gem yesterday?
Oh I’d be thrilled with an Andruw type career as well Hizouse, don’t get me wrong. Think about it though, if Andruw was “developed” properly (and if that can be considered a possibility), he could have been the greatest CF of all time. And the Braves might have just held onto him, and we might be looking at an OF with CyborgAndruw and J-Hey….oh the wishes I have…
I wrote it during the Phillies game.
I am commenting on the head-first v feet first sliding issue:
CAC said, “[the statistician] says sliding head-first results in more serious injuries, but sliding feet-first results in injuries occurring more frequently”
That is the answer: You should slide feet first. Jammed or broken little toes, sprained ankles and the like are managable and in many cases one can play through them; dislocated shoulders and elbows, broken wrists, and broken fingers keep you out of the game and can be career threatening. Y
ou cannot hit with these injuries, and on your throwing arm, one cannot throw.
A sprained ankle can be hit with ice, anti-inflammatants and therapy and one can be out there in a few days, or at worst a few weeks. Broken toes can be played-throw if you can stand the pain.
I’d fine my players a healthy sum for sliding head first, and a really healthy sum for sliding headfirst into first base on a batted ball, as it is always faster to run through the bag.
My only exception would be diving back head first on a pickoff–I’d still rather see feet-first, but at least you are not running full speed in this case.
The conclusion of the study Will Carrol (who is most decidedly *NOT* a statistician, he is a journalist who focuses on sports injuries) refers to is you’ll miss the same amount of time sliding feet-first as head-first. There is no use in discussing it theoretically, the empirical work has been done.
Diving into first, if done properly (minimal actual “sliding” on the ground before hand hits the base), is faster than running through. But the advantage isn’t worth the risk of injury.
I think the SportScience guy tested it; here’s a link to another summary:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/09/science-stumped/
Lowe was been great last month but my question to you, CAC, can he keep it up? (in the playoffs and next season)
Tonight’s lineup, according to DOB:
1. Infante (3B)
2. Heyward
3. Lee
4. McCann
5. Gonzalez
6. Diaz
7. Conrad (2B)
8. Ankiel
9. Lowe
Diaz with the start. .278 wOBA this year vs RHP (.312 career) … but 3 hits in his last game!
I’m told the reason Diaz is playing is because Nate McLouth is 1-for-6 with a double and 4 K’s against Lincecum. But…… get this, Diaz is 1-for-3 with 1 K against Lincecum. You might as well let a random number generator pick the line-up if you’re going to base it on 6 at-bat samples.
The line-up should be:
1. Nate McLouth* – CF
2. Jason Heyward* – RF
3. Derrek Lee – 1B
4. Brian McCann* – C
5. Brooks Conrad# – 2B
6. Rick Ankiel* – CF
7. Omar Infante – 3B
8. Derek Lowe – P
9. Alex Gonzalez – SS
I’m going back and forth on Conrad 5th and Lee 3rd, but the rest I’m pretty confident about.
Lane/31,
He can. I can’t see into the future so I don’t know if he will or not, though.
I’ve watched Lowe a few times, and I absolutely love the movement on his pitches. He’s got great movement so far in the first inning
I love how the announcers show the replay of Posey like 5 times and don’t even mention he’s clearly out, or even show a slow motion shot. Not that it was hard to tell, I got a freeze-frame with my frickin’ DVR. Are they not allowed to cut on umps or something?
Oy, I don’t know of any replay proposal that would’ve allowed that call to be overturned, but it’s still tough to see a runner score who was out earlier.
Of course, Omar should have made the play and Bobby should have pitched to Panda anyways. Not Lowe’s fault at all.
I’m starting to think we should just put Conrad at 3rd and Infante at 2nd because at least Infante didn’t suck at 2nd
@ 37/TCQ
Clearly out. Here’s your freeze-frame: http://twitpic.com/2vka3k
Thanks, ASN.
If the Braves lose this game 1-0, I’m starting a campaign to spam MLB with this shit. It isn’t even necessarily instant replay(which I’m all for), these umpires haven’t been in proper position to make SB calls at second all year. I mean, live in 1887 if you want, but at least train your umps better if you’re gonna.
Oh-my-fucking-god.
Hey, Buck? The umpire being in such a position that he couldn’t make a proper call IS NOT A DEFENSE. “Well, since Paul Emmel was positioned in south-east Asia, it’s hard for him to see tags that are applied in America. DUH”.
That was what, the 4th absolutely terrible potentially game changing call that was horribly wrong?
The Young check swing, Pena foul tip, the Yankees trap call and now that?
and better still, i don’t know whether it was Smoltzie or ron darling who said the umpires are getting 99 percent of the calls correct.. right?! just keep making shit up as they go along
still can’t really blame the umpires for mac and lee agone(can’t they just play diory?!) swinging at pitches in the dirt, and there goes your middle of the lineup
I didn’t listen to the announcers, thankfully.
The game is recapped.