Top Prospects Year In Review: 1-10
October 15, 2010 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Final installment of the year in review series WRT last year’s top-40. I’ll pick up tomorrow with the 2010 draftees.
Number 10: Cole Rohrbough – LHP (23) 6’3″ 205 LB. 2009 Rank: 8.
Injuries limited Rohrbough to 22 and 2/3 innings and he wasn’t effective when he pitched. There’s not a whole lot to say about Rohrbough, he desperately needed to have a healthy and effective 2010, and he didn’t at all.
Number 9: Adam Milligan – OF (22) 6’3″ 210 LB. 2009 Rank: Unranked.
Milligan was limited by injuries to 21 games, and his performance in those 21 games was terrible, including 35 strikeouts in 85 AB’s (41.2% K/AB), a .176 ISO, and a .277 on-base average. The physical tools remain impressive, but he’ll have to stay healthy and make some mental and mechanical adjustments in order to make it out of the lower minors.
Number 8: J. J. Hoover – RHP (22) 6’3″ 215 LB. 2009 Rank: 40.
Hoover had a pretty incredible year. He made 24 starts for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans where he posted a 8.0 K/9, a 2.4 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 over 132 and 2/3 innings, then was promoted to AA for 4 starts, where he posted a 14.8 K/9, a 6.5 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 over 20 and 2/3 innings. He exhibited an uptick in velocity, making him a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect. He’s stayed healthy and durable for two straight seasons and is a great bet to make it to the big leagues.
Number 7: Zeke Spruill – RHP (20) 6’4″ 184 LB. 2009 Rank: 11.
Spruill is a prime example of why make-up is important when evaluating players. In 2009 he was sent to the GCL (from Rome) for a month because of repeated team infractions. In 2010 he did something stupid–it’s not entirely clear what, presumably he punched a wall–and broke his hand, which limited him to 68 innings on the year. 65 of those happened at Myrtle Beach–where he should have been for a full season–and in those 65 innings he posted a 5.43 ERA, a 1.477 WHIP, and a 41-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio with 4 HR. The performance was better than the results, for sure, but losing half a year of development hurts his prospect status.
Number 6: Randall Delgado – RHP (20) 6’3″ 165 LB. 2009 Rank: 6.
Delgado is progressing exactly as the Braves would have hoped. In his second full season he made it to AA after dominating the Carolina League over 20 starts to the tune of a 2.76 ERA, a 1.031 WHIP, and a 120-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 7 homers in 117 and 1/3 innings. He slowed a bit in AA, walking 20 batters in 43 and 2/3 innings, but he struck out 42 and only allowed 2 homers. What Delgado has done is pretty incredible, especially for a 20-year-old.
Number 5: Craig Kimbrel – RHP (22) 5’11″ 205 LB. 2009 Rank: 19.
In 2010 he pulled the same trick he always does. He was basically too good for the minor leagues, striking out 83 batters in 55 and 2/3 innings at Class AAA Gwinnett while allowing only 28 hits (three of them home runs), but he walked 35 batters. He also pitched 20 and 2/3 innings with the A-Braves, striking out 40 batters and allowing only 9 hits (no homers), but walked 16 batters. It grows tiresome, the utter dominance with poor control, but that’s what he is and we might as well get used to it. He’ll reportedly be the A-Braves’ closer in 2011.
Number 4: Christian Bethancourt – C (18) 6’2″ 175 LB. 2009 Rank: Unrakned.
Bethancourt didn’t hit in his first taste of full-season ball, finishing the year with a .251/.276/.331 line in 420 PA’s. He drew only 13 unintentional walks all year which is completely unacceptable. Defensively he made great strides–not that he really needed to, his defensive game is incredible–throwing out 39% of attempted base-stealers and generally displaying impressive agility. He’s Jeff Francoeur at this point–really impressive tools but he has no idea how to use them. He was only 18 years old, so he gets a pass, but you’d like to see him get his mechanical issues worked out (his swing is ugly).
Number 3: Freddie Freeman – 1B (20) 6’5″ 220 LB. 2009 Rank: 3.
Freddie Freeman was aggressively assigned to AAA, where he was one of the youngest players in the league, but he didn’t disappoint. He hit .319/.378/.521 in 519 PA’s before earning a September call-up. He continues to be an outstanding defensive first baseman. He’s slated to begin 2011 as the team’s every-day first baseman. The only knock on him is his approach. It did improve a lot this year, but he still only drew 40 unintentional walks in 519 PA’s, which, for a first baseman, borders on intolerable.
Number 2: Julio Teheran – RHP (19) 6’2″ 150 LB. 2009 Rank: 5.
Teheran blew through the lower minors in his first full season, making it all the way to AA. He finished the year with a 2.59 ERA, 1.037 WHIP, and a 159-to-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio, allowing 9 home runs, over 142 and 2/3 innings across three levels. He got better as the year progressed before tiring towards the end of the year as most prospects do in their first full season. His great performance won’t go unnoticed, and he’s liable to be ranked the best pitching prospect in the minors when those things come out. Went 2-for-6 with a walk and a sacrifice at the plate in AA.
Number 1: Jason Heyward – RF (20) 6’4″ 200 LB. 2009 Rank: 1.
I linked to his minor-league B-R page for the sake of consistency, but he didn’t see a single pitch in the minors, spending all of 2010 on the MLB roster or disabled list. When he was healthy he played like an MVP, when he foolishly tried to play through injuries he played like Gregor Blanco. Overall he finished 2010 with a .277/.393/.456 line. It would have been a lot better had he not hurt his thumb. Finished 4th in the NL in walks and on-base average. Here’s a list of most similar batters through age 20:
1. Sam Crawford (968) *
2. Ken Griffey (930)
3. Cesar Cedeno (930)
4. Andruw Jones (919)
5. Claudell Washington (915)
6. Eddie Mathews (915) *
7. Vada Pinson (914)
8. Sherry Magee (914)
9. Mickey Mantle (913) *
10. Tony Conigliaro (911)
* – Signifies Hall of Famer
He’s going to be really good for a long time if he stays healthy. As impressive as his 2010 was, it’s just the tip of the iceberg.
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Where’s Vizcaino?
This is his review of his top prospects after last season, Vizcaino wasn’t with the team yet so wasn’t on the list.
You don’t paint a very encouraging picture offensively. Unless the composition of this lists changes when you update it, trading pitching for hitting seems unavoidable. Regarding Delgado and Teheran, if they continue their good work, will they see a promotion to Gwinnett around midseason?
Michael/3
The composition should change with the additions of Matt Lipka, Joe Leonard, Edward Salcedo, Tyler Pastornicky, Phil Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Cunningham, Rohm, etc, and also the improvement of internal guys like Elmer Reyes, Cory Harrilchak, and even Jesus Sucre (who while not a top prospect, hit well enough in AA to potentially become a bench option)
I think its important that we don’t lose any picks for signing free agents this offseason. I think the scouts have done a good job, but we need to continue to stockpile. Looking back at the Tex deals, we lost out on both ends. There is no guarantee we would have picked Mike Trout, but who wouldn’t take those two picks over Kotchmann and Marek. Marek might be a piece in the bullpen or a trade in the offseason, but I still don’t understand taking Kotchmann over Morales. Kotchmann’s upside was Sid Bream and he may not reach that.
When will you be forthcoming with this year’s Top 40. I will interested to see how many position players make the Top 10, maybe Freeman, Christian, Jones and Lipka
What’s the parenthetical number to the right of the list of players comparable to Jason Heyward?
As for Kimbrel, did you see Verducci’s note that Craig may not be as wild as we think. Apparently, his minor league wildness might be due more to minor league umpire’s not understanding that his fastball doesn’t drop than due to him missing the zone. That argument would make sense when you look at his second half and playoff numbers (when he was more settled on the big league club) compared to his minor league numbers.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/10/13/five.cuts/index.html
Don/5,
Salcedo will be in the top 10, he’s the 2nd best position player prospect in the system for me. Lipka, Bethancourt, and Jones are borderline top-10′s. Freeman will be #2.
Brad/6,
Their 2010 age.
CAC, No, I meant next to Griffey and those guys, but I figured it out. It’s their BR Similarity Score.
Ah, my bad.
Also on Kimbrel’s wildness, his last 10 games or so at AAA really showed a dramatic drop in walk rate. It was only 10 games or so, but it was significant.
Was thinking to myself…Griffey isn’t 930 years old…
Hey CAC, I was wanting to check out some old polls and noticed that your “Polls Archive” link is broken. Just want to make you aware of it.
Does anyone else really have to fight nausea when watching Elvis Andrus play? How much better would we be with him? I know we shipped him out because we had Yunel but… well… hello, Alex Gonzalez.
@atlrod: This comment on TBS made me rather mad.
“Ron Washington was so complimentary of the Braves’ farm system that, when they got Elvis Andrus in a trade, all they had to do was give Andrus the opportunity to play.”
Thanks Jon. I’m working on fixing it right now, though I’m not sure how.
atlrod, I suspect that if you watched Andrus play 162 games that you would quickly get frustrated at how bad a hitter he is. And I am not sure if the speed and defense make up for it.
I was really suprised when the Braves sent Freeman to start the year in AAA. I thought he would need at least two full years in the minor before coming to the majors, but he proved me wrong. Even though he started off slow, he had a great year. Teheran, Delgado, and Hoover had a great year. Our pitching depth is one of the best and I continue to look forward as they progress through the system.
I was listening to XM radio the other day and Phil Rogers from the Chicago Tribune was on there and he was talking out of his ass about Jason Heyward. Said that Braves fans should be worried because he wasn’t getting on base like he did in spring training. Mind you this was three days ago that he was on there saying this stuff after Heyward finished 7th in the league in OBP. I know Heyward was awful in the post season but I didn’t think 4 games was enough to completely write off a guy and say that at 21 he will never progress any further. The most annoying thing about baseball is the idiots who get paid to cover the game.
Well, baseball reporting has often been the Village Idiots Full Employment Act.
You mean to tell me with all this prospect we cant trade for a decent Power hitting cf/lf/1b with all these talented players so the braves are thinking bout trading JJ why not add one of these players and i bet they can get someone like Fielder Kemp or someone.
i think they will trade for Colby or Kemp, and sign Mags