Braves 2011 Top Prospects: 1-10
October 26, 2010 at 1:43 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Number 10: Carlos Perez – LHP (19) 6’2″ 195 LB. Last Year’s Rank: Unranked.
Carlos Perez was a July 2, 2008 sign out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. He was the recipient of the biggest bonus the Braves handed an international player that year ($600,000). He skipped the Dominican Summer League entirely, making his professional debut stateside in the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year old last year. This year the Braves sent him to Danville to start the year and promoted him to Class A Rome after six starts. Unfortunately a cracked rib limited Perez to two starts in Rome. He finished the year with a 1.62 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP, and a 31-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 innings. Perez throws a power sinker that sits 90-92 MPH, a plus curve, and a developing change up. With his size and stuff, Perez has top of the rotation potential. His much-anticipated full-season debut will take place next year, and don’t be surprised if he shows enough to end up near the top of the 2012 version of this list.
Number 9: Brandon Beachy – RHP (24) 6’4″ 220 LB. Last Year’s Rank: Unranked.
Brandon Beachy was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2008 out of Indiana Wesleyan University in Marion, Indiana. He hardly pitched in college, but he caught the eye of a Braves scout pitching in a summer league following his junior year. The Braves signed him to a $20,000 bonus and he rocketed through their system thereafter, making it to AA during his second professional season. This year Beachy started the year in the Class AA Mississippi bullpen, but was so successful the organization moved him to the Mississippi rotation. It didn’t slow him down one bit, and after six spectacular starts he was promoted to Class AAA Gwinnett. He finished the year with a minor league-leading 1.73 ERA (that and $4 will get you a cup of coffee), a 1.014 WHIP, and a 148-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio, allowing 5 homers in 119 and 1/3 innings. He wasn’t done though, because when Jair Jurrjens went down with a knee injury the Braves called on Beachy to make his MLB debut. He made three starts, pitching 15 innings with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.533 WHIP, and a 15-to-4 strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio, allowing no homers. Beachy’s repertoire features a fastball that sits 91-93, a solid-average change up, and a fringe-average curveball. His command and control are outstanding–he walked only 2.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues–and he is very much a pitcher, rather than a thrower. He’s a finished product who profiles as a mid-rotation starter and would begin the 2011 season in most team’s rotations. Due to the depth the Braves possess, Beachy might begin the year at Class AAA Gwinnett, but if the Braves need a sixth starter, he’ll be the first man to get the call.
Number 8: Matt Lipka – SS/2B/CF (19) 6’1″ 190 LB. Last Year’s Rank: Draftee. 2010 in review.
Matt Lipka was drafted in the first supplemental round (35th overall) of the 2010 draft. He signed quickly for slot ($800,000) and hit the ground running in the GCL before a 4-game promotion to Danville. He finished the year with a combined .288/.344/.380 line in 228 PA’s while stealing 21 bases in 24 attempts. Lipka has legitimate 80 speed and enough arm to stick at SS, but his motions in the field leave much to be desired. His speed will allow him to play somewhere up the middle, but he might have to settle for second base or–more likely–center field. Lipka won’t ever hit for a ton of power, but he should provide enough primary offense at a premium position to hold down a regular job. Outstanding work ethic and makeup round out his assets, and the Braves did very well to get Lipka at 35th overall.
Number 7: Christian Bethancourt – C (19) 6’2″ 175 LB. Last Year’s Rank: 4. 2010 in review.
Christian Bethancourt was officially signed on July 2, 2008 out of Panama for $600,000, though an agreement had been reached prior to the July 2 opening. He spent time in the DSL in 2008, the GCL and Appy League in 2009, and played a full season in Class A Rome in 2010. He finished 2010 with a rather disappointing .251/.276/.331 line with 11 SB’s in 14 attempts over 420 PA’s. Though the results leave much to be desired, Bethancourt’s tools are phenomenal. With an 80 arm and great agility behind the plate, he has the makings of a future gold-glove winning (and actually deserving) catcher. At the plate his mechanics are terrible, but he generates outstanding bat speed and has the tools to hit for average and plus power at the next level. He’s an above-average runner and figures to be more than just a pick-a-spot base stealer. Though there’s still a lot of development necessary, he’s already come a long way and has limitless potential.
Number 6: Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (20) 6’0″ 190 LB. Last Year’s Rank: Unranked.
Arodys Vizcaino was signed by the New York Yankees on July 2, 2007 out of Yaguate, Dominican Republic for $800,000. The Braves acquired him from New York in the 2010 pre season in the trade that sent Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the Yankees and Melky Cabrera and Michael Dunn to Atlanta. Vizcaino was sent to Class A Rome in 2010 for his full-season debut and made 12 impressive starts before he was promoted to Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach. Unfortunately, elbow soreness–later diagnosed as a partial tear of his UCL–limited him to three starts at the Beach. However, Vizcaino avoided surgery and returned to professional baseball at the end of the year, tossing 2 and 1/3 innings for Rome in late August and early September. When he did pitch the results were fantastic, he posted a combined 2.74 ERA, a 1.066 WHIP, and a 79-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 85 and 1/3 innings while allowing 2 home runs. Vizcaino has incredible arm strength, effortlessly sitting 93-95 MPH and throws plus curveball. Though the stuff is impressive, there isn’t much room for projection in his 6’0″ frame and his unconventional delivery plus injury history may force him to settle into a relief role. Whatever role he’s used in, he’ll be very good (either a top of the rotation starter or elite closer).
Number 5: Mike Minor – LHP (23) 6’3″ 210 LB. Last Year’s Rank: 13. 2010 in review.
Mike Minor was drafted by the Braves in the first round (7th overall) of the 2009 draft and signed for a club record $2.42 million bonus. After a successful, if brief, professional debut in Class A Rome and a stint in the Arizona Fall League, Minor was assigned to Class AA Mississippi to open the 2010 season. He stayed there for 15 starts before the Braves promoted him to Class AAA. Then, when Kris Medlen went down with a torn UCL on August 4th, Minor was summoned to the big club to take his spot in the rotation. He made 8 starts and 1 mop-up appearance for the big club down the stretch. Minor finished the minor-league season with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.155 WHIP, and a 146-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120 and 1/3 innings while allowing 9 home runs. His major-league numbers aren’t as good, having posted a 5.98 ERA, a 1.574 WHIP, and a 43-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 and 2/3 innings, allowing 6 home runs. Minor was visibly tired for much of his major-league stint, which is understandable for players making their full-season debut, and overall there’s more to like about what he did with the big club than there is to dislike. His repertoire features a 89-93 MPH fastball, a plus change up, and an average curveball. If the uptick in velocity he exhibited in for most of the season is here to stay and Minor’s curve improves, he could be a top of the rotation starter. More likely he settles in as a durable, mid-rotation guy. He’s slated to break camp with the big club in 2011 and unless his Spring goes horribly wrong or Brandon Beachy pitches like an ace, he’s probably in the majors to stay.
Number 4: Edward Salcedo – 3B/OF (19) 6’3″ 195 LB. Last Year’s Rank: Unranked.
Edward Salcedo was signed by the Braves on February 23, 2010 out of La Vega, Dominican Republic for a $1.6 million bonus. He was 18 years old at the time. In 2007 he reportedly agreed to sign with the Cleveland Indians for over $1 million more than he received from Atlanta, but MLB’s investigation of his identity and age halted the process. After a two-year layoff, the Braves commissioned another investigation of Salcedo’s age, confirming he was in fact born on July 30, 1991 and guilty of no misrepresentation. Once he signed Salcedo got his feet wet in 23 successful Dominican Summer League games before the organization brought him stateside to finish the year. His first taste of baseball in the USA was a disaster, he hit only .197/.239/.295 with 56 strikeouts in 193 AB’s for Class A Rome. That type of production is tough to swallow, but Salcedo’s phenomenal tools combined with the fact that 2010 was his professional debut make it easy to look past. The organization currently has Salcedo playing SS, but he doesn’t move well enough to stick there. He does have soft hands, good instincts, and an above-average arm, which leads many to believe he’ll find his home at the hot corner. Salcedo is one of the best offensive players to come out of the Dominican Republic in awhile. He’s extremely strong for his age with ripped forearms and broad shoulders, he has the typical power-hitter’s frame plus an athletic build. He generates lots of bat speed and leverage and figures to be an isolated power monster while hitting for average. He’ll probably return to Rome for the 2011 season; don’t be surprised if he takes off and becomes a five-star prospect.
Number 3: Randall Delgado – RHP (21) 6’3″ 175 LB. Last Year’s Rank: 6. 2010 in review.
The Braves signed Randall Delgado out of Las Tablas, Panama in 2006 for a $50,000 bonus. He’s since become one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues. He began 2010 at Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach and was promoted to Class AA Mississippi after 20 starts. He finished the year with a combined 3.30 ERA, a 1.099 WHIP, and a 162-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 161 innings, allowing 9 home runs. Delgado’s repertoire features a power sinker that sits 92-94 MPH, plus slider, change up, and curveball. The in-game use of his slider has been forbidden by the organization thus far, and once he begins to use it he’s a candidate to fly through the upper minors. Delgado’s command is fantastic and his 3-pitch mix (without the slider) has been more than enough to get by thus far. He’s only about a year away and has top of the rotation potential, though he might end up being more of a mid-rotation guy.
Number 2: Freddie Freeman – 1B (21) 6’5″ 225 LB. Last Year’s Rank: 3. 2010 in review.
Freddie Freeman was drafted by the Braves in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft out of El Modena High School in Orange, California and received a $409,500 signing bonus. He was promoted through the system in-tandem with his good friend Jason Heyward for most of his career. In 2009 a wrist injury limited his playing time and production, eventually shutting down his AFL campaign. In 2010 he was aggressively assigned to Class AAA Gwinnett to start the season, but it didn’t slow him down and he finished the season with a .319/.378/.521 line with 18 home runs in 519 PA’s. With an eye on Freeman taking over the big club’s every day first base job in 2011, he was given a proverbial cup of coffee in September. Though he hit only .167/.167/.333 in 24 PA’s, the performance was better than the results, and a pinch-hit home run off of Roy Halladay was a glimpse of what’s to come. Freeman is an excellent contact hitter with plus power to all fields, projecting as a yearly 25+ homer bat with a .300+ average. He’s a fantastic defensive first baseman with surprising mobility for his size, good receiving skills, and a plus arm (he pitched in high school). The only thing holding him back is his approach, but even that made tons of progress in 2010. If he’s healthy he’ll start most of the team’s games at 1B in 2011 and I don’t expect him to disappoint.
Number 1: Julio Teheran – RHP (20) 6’2″ 160 LB. Last Year’s Rank: 2. 2010 in review.
Julio Teheran was signed by the Braves on July 2, 2007 out of Cartagena, Colombia for $850,000. He was the top pitcher on the market and would’ve signed for a lot more money had his cousin not been employed by the Braves as a scout. He skipped the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League entirely, making his professional debut in the Appalachian League in 2008, though shoulder soreness limited him to 15 innings. The following year he returned to Danville for seven starts before the organization promoted him to Class A Rome for another seven starts. In 2010 he returned to Class A Rome for his much-anticipated full-season debut and surpassed all expectations, making it all the way to AA without slowing down at all and cementing his status as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He finished the year with a combined 2.59 ERA, a 1.037 WHIP, and a 159-to-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 142 and 2/3 innings while allowing 9 home runs across three levels. Teheran throws an overpowering 94-97 MPH fastball, an 11-5 curveball, and a plus change up. He generates tons of swings and misses and ground balls. He has good control and there’s really nothing not to like about his game. His mechanics are a bit herky-jerky, but that’s not much of a concern. He’ll likely be sent back to Class AA Mississippi after big-league camp to start the 2011 season, but he’ll almost certainly be promoted at some point in the season, and don’t be surprised if it’s to Atlanta. He’s a future ace waiting for an opportunity, and provided he stays healthy he’ll be very good for a long time.
Programming note: the ‘Top Prospects’ page has been updated to reflect the 2011 list and the 2010 list has been archived. Both can be accessed at any time by clicking on ‘Top Prospects’ on the pages bar at the top of the site or by clicking here.
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Wow. It’s great to see all the high level pitching prospects near the top of the list. Makes me wonder how the braves are going to re-incorporate a post tommy john version of Kris Medlen.
In summary it seems to me as if the minor league system took a major step forward from last year. Is that your opinion as well? Thanks for the fantastic write ups!
CAC…
impressive work, many thanks..
please define ‘approach’ in the context you use it i.e. re FF..
A couple of questions:
1. How does Teheran’s potential compare to say, Hanson’s?
2. In the case of Salcedo, is it wise to just write off his line in Rome because he would have had a lot of adjusting to do to life off the field as well?
This is a crazy good top 10 that is only rivaled by the Royals probably. And that’s only because of their big 3 hitters because I think we have more depth in the top 10. Teheran, Freeman, Minor, Beachy, and Delgado flat out took off this year. Vizcaino and Perez were well on their way before minor late season injuries. Then the other 3 guys on this list (Salcedo, Bethancourt, and Lipka) easily have the tools to make it up to #1 at some point. Great top 40. Thanks for the writeup!
Assuming that Hanson, Hudson and Lowe are guaranteed starters, that leaves two spots for Beachy Jurrjens Minor and Kawakami.
How Likely is it that Kawakami is sent off AND the team keeps all of the other three?
How do you tear a UCL and avoid surgery?
CAC,
Out of curiosity, why won’t the organization let Delgado throw his slider in-game? Is it because of injury risk or is because it’s still a work-in-progress?
I think KK’s gone for whatever they can get for him.
Nick: Teheran so far has surpassed Hanson at every level. His body isn’t as prototypical as Hanson’s, but that’s hardly a sure thing.
Yes, its wise to discount Salcedo’s disappointing results. From February to September as an 18 year old kid he became a millionaire, signed his immediate future away to a foreign corporation, spent a few weeks beating up on some village teams there, and then moved to a new country where he probably had some language problems, was missing home and friends, and jumped mid-season into competition with other solid players who have been honing their craft against each other for at least a year, sometimes 3. Alot going on, mentally and spiritually, and it takes time to flush that out and just get back to playing ball.
I wouldn’t be disappointed if Vizcaino turned into a young Rafael Soriano.
How ’bout that ’08 international FA class, though, eh? Lotta good signs!
Ryan/2,
I think he’s a reliever from here on out. It’s good that the organization tried him as a starter, but with his frame we knew there was a decent chance it wouldn’t work.
Ty/3,
Without a doubt.
blazon/4,
Swinging at too many pitches he can’t drive.
NickC/5,
1) Teheran’s is higher because of the ground balls and his command is better meaning more efficiency. I consider Hanson a borderline #2/#1 starter and Teheran a true ace.
2) Yes, also he’s only 19 years old.
Zach/6,
I don’t agree that the Braves’ farm has more depth than the Royals, but it is very good.
Jeff/7,
I think keeping Hanson, Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Minor, & Beachy while trading Kawakami is the most likely scenario.
TradeAndruw/8,
Vizcaino’s injury was only a partial tear and it apparently fixed itself with rehab.
Brad/9,
Health reasons. Also they want him to learn how to pitch without his slider. Similar to the way they didn’t let Hanson throw the slider until AA and won’t let Masters throw his palmball.
Nevin/10,
The 2008 international FA class is even better than this list lets on. Amable Nin, Freddy Gamboa, Meng Tsai, Wei Huang, and Fernando De Los Santos all didn’t make the list, but they definitely could next year.
Has it been determined that Arodys Vizcaino will be a reliever? I know of his health concerns, but I’m not sure we should be discounting his chances to start just yet. Height is an overplayed card when projecting whether a pitcher is a starter or reliever. I think the Braves keep starting him in the minors as long as they can. More valuable that way.
If I were farm director he’d never start another game, I don’t see his delivery holding up in a starting role. But the Braves are probably going to keep starting him.
Great work, CAC. It’s been a lot of fun to read and I wish there were more prospects to analyze! Also, you go into more depth than most prospect sites which I appreciate.
Keep it up.
CAC,
First off, great write ups on all the prospects.
I’m curious where you get some of your info on all the prospects, obviously the stats, draft position, signing bonuses etc, can be found online but when you talk about a guys delivery are you getting this from some scouting website or have you in fact been able to watch all of this prospects in person? ( which I find hard to believe) Or is there online video where you have been able to look at them? and if so where?
Again, great write up and great blog.
Brian/15,
Mostly seeing them in person. Believe it or not; I don’t care.
The guys I haven’t seen I’ve spoken with several pro scouts about. The ones on my top-40 I haven’t seen play: Matt Lipka, David Filak, Andrelton Simmons, Tyler Pastornicky, Edward Saldeno, Joe Leonard, Amilcar Gaxiola, Yoshinori Yamarin, Joseph Terdoslavich, and Abraham Espinosa.
Thanks Peter. Out of curiosity, where would Robinson Lopez be on this list?
Great list. Thanks.
Robinson Lopez would be in the 8-10 range.
CAC, if you had to bet, do Salcedo or Bethancourt make it to the bigs? Can Bethancourt become a pitcher if he can’t make it behind the dish?
Bethancourt has the arm strength to be a pitcher, but has has so much upside as a catcher they’ll exhaust the possibility before moving him to the mound. My money is on both Salcedo and Bethancourt making it.
Has Salcedo been in the winter leagues? If so, how has he done. Hopefully he has that breakout year; us Braves fans are higher on him than most others.
Salcedo is currently in the instructs. They don’t make statistics from the instructs publicly available, so I don’t know how he’s doing.
Great write-ups and I really enjoy reading them. The future looks good.
I was clicking though the history of your top prospect lists and saw that Johnny Venters never made it to it. Can you say why? Was it because he was projected as a starter and wasn’t all that good. He seemed pretty filthy as a reliever this year. If you had to take a flier on anyone outside of the top 40 making the roster next year who would it be?
Venters was horrible in the minor leagues because they kept using him as a starter. I knew nothing about him. Never bothered to go see him start.
Regarding a player making the roster not in the top-40, possibly Matt Young.
Wren stated that Salcedo is doing much, much better offensively and defensively in instructs but even with that info I still personally think he’s ranked too high on your list but it is YOUR list.
I’d take anything Wren says with a grain of salt.
Do you think you have Aroyds too high if you only see him being productive as a reliever? Or do you think ceiling is that of a top reliever (~2.5 WAR) and therefore similar to that of a mid-tier starter (i.e. Beachy)?
Do you think Wren would ever begin next year as a starter, knowing that he couldn’t keep it up, and try to trade him while his value is perceived as a potential top end starter? Is Wren smart enough to do that? Is that ethical if Wren knows he is risking injury and can’t physically handle that work load? Do ethics matter?
Just some thoughts.
Well, first of all, I don’t think either commonly accepted version of WAR handles relief pitchers well.
I don’t see the delivery holding up as a starter but a) the delivery could change and b) you never know. If I am right about his ultimate role he’s probably ranked too high, but if he is used exclusively as a reliever from here on, he could be one of the best relievers in the majors late next year. More effective than Kimbrel because his command is so much better.
Trying to trick other teams into buying high on something is nice in theory, but I truly believe it’s almost impossible to do in practice. If a team were looking at acquiring Arodys they’d scout him extensively and figure out what’s going on. Additionally the Braves have always taken pride in their reputation and wouldn’t try to deceive someone like that. If they know he’s not a starter, they’d tell the other team. I think ethics always matter, especially to a team like Atlanta.
CAC / 16,
“Mostly seeing them in person. Believe it or not; I don’t care.”
I wasn’t coming at you or anything, I was just curious and I’m glad you have actually seen them and therefore can offer your own unique assessement of them as opposed to just rehashing some other scouts info.
One more question, I’m curious as to what pitcher, past or present, that Teheran reminds you most of.
Thanks
CAC,
Do you agree with this as far as a ceiling on Vizcaino,
Vizcaino = Feliz as a reliever
Vizcaino = Rich Harden as a starter
Also, do you see Wilken Ramirez as anything more than a AAA roster filler, or could he a late bloomer like Nelson Cruz. His minor league numbers aren’t quite as good as Cruz’s, but I believe Nelson had the benefit of playing in hitter’s leagues for most of his time in the minors. Do you think Ramirez could play himself into a platoon with Nate in LF if we are able to get a bigger bat for CF
CAC,
Based on your and other peoples description of Teheran, I keep thinking of a Brandon Webb type of guy…is that about right?
CAC thanks for the write, really enjoyed reading it!
I am thinking Doc Gooden.
CAC,
You’re probably right about KC having more depth overall. However, it’s worth noting that John Sickels rated 11 Royals prospects at B- or higher and rated 14 Braves prospects at B- or higher.
Brian/30,
I’ve never seen a player pitch like Teheran. He’s very unique, there’s not an obvious comp to me.
DON/31,
Vizcaino’s command is very good, Rich Harden’s is awful. I’d say he’s got Mariano Rivera upside as a reliever and Tommy Hanson upside in the rotation.
Wilkin Ramirez has always had good tools, but his pitch recognition skills are awful. If he gets those straightened out he could have a Cruz-esque emergence. Very slim chance of that happening though.
Jake/32,
I don’t think so. Webb is a ground-ball first, strikeout second type of pitcher. Teheran is a straight power pitcher who happens to be blessed with the ability to get ground balls.
Jake,
Teheran has more swing and miss potential, and thusly a higher ceiling. Fastball is much harder.
The comparison to Harden was less about stuff and more about fragility
There is a new post and a new poll.
Several thoughts here…
Lipka as a CF, if that is ultimately the plan, I’d hope gets out there sooner than later. A lot of MLB CFs play there because of their speed, but take awful jumps on balls. I’d hope Lipka could head out there to learn the position, jumps, footwork, etc. He’ll never be Andruw, but I’d prefer he not be a Kemp, McLouth, Adam Jones, etc, out there.
Vizcaino’s arm injury, you mention the first one. But when he came back for that 2 innings or so, I thought he was removed because of injury. Did it flare up and they were being safe, or did it get more severe? I haven’t seen anything say one way or the other, about reinjuring his arm.
I thought Minor had a slider, in addition to his change and curve.
Oh, and good writeups on all your lists. Enjoyed reading them.
If the Braves have so many bright pitching prospects, why would they keep Kawakami? Are they so hard nosed they will never admit he was an overpaid mistake?
CAC, when you say “11-5 curveball”, do you mean it backs up?
no thats just the term for a sharp curve with a slight amount of tilt.