Offseason Primer
October 27, 2010 at 4:47 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
2010 in review
The Braves battled adversity all year, eventually limping into the playoffs where they were eliminated in the first round in 4 games by a combined score of 11-9. By late September they were using a line-up that included two utility infielders that had no business playing every day and a grab bag of center fielders and left fielders that were more or less replacement-level. Braves left fielders ended the year with a .242/.302/.385 line and their center fielders hit .232/.329/.339. The emergence of Jason Heyward made the unproductive outfield spots easier to swallow, and despite the poor production from LF and CF for the entire year and two utility players playing every day down the stretch, the Braves were, overall, a good offensive team in 2010. They finished 5th in the league in runs per game and 3rd in OPS+. The primary reason for their success was their ability to take ball 4, they led the league in walks and on base average. Even after swapping a hitter who strikes out about as much as he walks for Alex Gonzalez (who has some of the poorest plate discipline in the majors) and replacing one of the most patient hitters in the game with Omar Infante (whose about as patient as Jeff Francoeur) the Braves fielded a very patient team.
The starting pitching was again solid, though unlike 2009 the team had no true “ace” on the staff. Derek Lowe had a nice bounce-back year, posting a 4.00 ERA in 193 and 2/3 innings and losing games 1 and 4 of the postseason despite pitching very well. Tommy Hanson had a strong first half, but his strikeout rate took a major turn south in the second half. It didn’t matter then because a) his walk rate also fell drastically and b) he was fortunate on balls in play, allowing him to finish the year with a 3.33 ERA in 202 and 2/3 innings. Tim Hudson returned from surgery to anchor the staff and led the major leagues in ground ball percentage, allowing him to post a 2.83 ERA in 228 and 2/3 innings despite a 1.88 K/BB ratio. He’ll need to improve the latter to sustain the former, but there’s a lot to like about Hudson’s comeback player of the year award winning campaign.
Beyond those three the staff was a bloody mess. Injuries limited Jair Jurrjens to 116 and 1/3 inning, in which he posted a 4.64 ERA. Kenshin Kawakami made only 16 starts before Bobby Cox irrationally decided he didn’t want to let him pitch anymore, bumping him from the rotation rather than Kris Medlen when Jair Jurrjens returned from his second series of injuries. Medlen was good in his 14 starts, but apparently he was not built to pitch in a rotation (we sort of knew this, his frame isn’t ideal for starting) and went down with a torn UCL. He’s out nearly all of 2011 on account of it and it didn’t have to be this way, but whatever. Mike Minor was summoned to take his place in the rotation, and he was good at first, but then he hit a wall and finished with a 5.98 ERA in 8 starts and 1 mop up appearance. When Jair Jurrjens went down again, Brandon Beachy took his/Minor’s spot for three solid starts down the stretch.
The bullpen was fantastic all year. Billy Wagner proved to be worth every penny of the $7 million he was paid, pitching 69 and 1/3 innings with a 1.43 ERA, a 0.865 WHIP, and a 104-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was absolutely brilliant all year and it’s a shame he’s so emphatic about retiring. Jonny Venters emerged as a top set-up man, posting a 1.95 ERA, a 1.205 WHIP, and a 93-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 innings. Takashi Saito was solid when he pitched, but only appeared in 56 games. Still, the 2.83 ERA in 54 innings is probably more than Atlanta bargained for when they signed him. Eric O’Flaherty was again effective in a lefty-specialist role, posting a 2.45 ERA in 44 innings. The Braves got several shots in the arm late in the season from Gwinnett, including Michael Dunn who appeared in 25 games and posted a 1.89 ERA and Craig Kimbrel, who appeared in 21 games and posted a 0.44 ERA. Christhian Martinez spent a lot of the year as the long-man in the bullpen and managed a 4.85 ERA in 26 innings. Jesse Chavez was terrible, and traded mid-season for Kyle Farnsworth, who was only slightly better.
Defensively the team was awful. They finished close to the bottom of the pack in UZR, and that’s with Yunel Escobar for half a season. The bench was particularly bad in the field, with Melky Cabrera, Brooks Conrad, Eric Hinske, and Matt Diaz all providing zero defensive value. Troy Glaus was a bad defensive first baseman and the team’s center fielders didn’t produce in the field. It wasn’t all bad, Martin Prado was about average at 2nd base, Chipper Jones improved on his bad defensive campaign in 2009, and Jason Heyward was a plus defender in right field.
Again the Braves cost themselves runs on the basepaths, though they were closer to league average in 2010 than 2009–when they finished 29th in EqBRR. While it’s nice to have a good baserunning team, it’s insignificant when compared to hitting, pitching, and defense, and not worth worrying a whole lot about.
What They’ve Got
The Braves have seven players under a guaranteed contract for 2011–Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Brian McCann, Nate McLouth, Chipper Jones, and David Ross. They hold club options for the 2011 services of Kyle Farnsworth, Alex Gonzalez, Omar Infante. Rick Ankiel has a mutual option for 2011 and he’s almost guaranteed to exercise his portion of it, so the Braves basically have a club option there. The Braves control six players that are eligible for salary arbitration, Matt Diaz, Peter Moylan, Scott Proctor, Jair Jurrjens, Eric O’Flaherty, and Martin Prado. They also controlled Melky Cabrera, but he was mercifully released, thank god. The club has three players eligible for free agency, Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, and Eric Hinske.
Going position-by-position, at first base they’re set with Freddie Freeman making league minimum. At second base, Martin Prado will be the primary second baseman. Alex Gonzalez’s club option is affordable, only $2.5 million, and they’re going to pick it up and use him as their every-day SS. Chipper Jones will be ready to play at the start of Spring Training and is the club’s every-day third baseman. Brian McCann is their catcher. They’re set in the infield. Jason Heyward will look to build on his ROY-deserving campaign, hopefully with his thumb fully healed, as the club’s every-day right fielder. Beyond that the outfield is up in the air. Nate McLouth makes $6.5 million in 2011 plus a $1.25 million buyout on his 2012 club option, so the Braves would have a tough time moving him. Though just because he’s staying put doesn’t mean he’s their every-day center fielder. McLouth showed glimpses of his former self in September, and there’s not a better option in the organization right now. Still, they may bring someone in to play CF. The club has no acceptable every-day left fielder, and they’ll have to go shopping this winter.
In the rotation, the Braves control seven players capable of filling a rotation spot, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami will not return to the big club in 2011, he’ll be traded elsewhere. It’s been reported that multiple Japanese teams are interested in Kenshin and willing to assume as much as $3 million of his salary, and if trading him to Japan for nothing and eating only $3.67 million is the worst-case scenario that’s going to happen. The first four mentioned are virtually guaranteed spots in the rotation unless they’re moved (unlikely), and Minor or Beachy will fill the 5th spot, the other going back to AAA and serving as the emergency starter.
The Braves have a lot of flexibility in the bullpen, which is especially nice considering they also have lots of cheap, effective options. Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters will most likely be penciled into the 8th and 9th inning roles. Michael Dunn has probably done enough to earn a role in the 2011 bullpen as well. Peter Moylan and Eric O’Flaherty won’t receive huge arbitration raises and have both been effective for awhile. I would caution the team against bringing Peter Moylan back, though. His walk rate has increased each of his past three healthy seasons, culminating in a completely unacceptable 5.2 BB/9 in 2010. I’m very skeptical of his ability to be an effective reliever in the future. O’Flaherty has been a rock-solid lefty-specialist for two years and most likely can be retained for less than $1 million. The Venters, Dunn, O’Flaherty trio should give the Braves a potent trio of lefties capable of shutting down opposing left-handed hitters. Stephen Marek did enough last year to earn a spot in the 2011 bullpen, and if he’s in shape and pitching well he should get one. With Kimbrel, Marek, Venters, Dunn, and O’Flaherty in the fold, they have two roles unsettled–long-man and high-leverage right-hander. There are a slew of options for the former, Christhian Martinez being the frontrunner, while there’s not much to work with in-house regarding the latter role.
On the bench, Omar Infante’s $2.5 million club option is a lock to be exercised while David Ross will serve as the club’s back-up catcher. Despite Brooks Conrad’s terrible defense, he’s cheap and an effective pinch-hitter and should be retained. There are two roles the Braves don’t have players to fill. One is a 4th outfielder. Yes, Matt Diaz is in the fold, but if he’s brought back the offseason was a failure. The team needs to get better defensively and the 4th outfielder spot is one of the most obvious places to do that, they need a true center fielder in that spot. Additionally, there isn’t an opportunity to get Diaz semi-regular PA’s on a properly constructed 2011 roster. Jason Heyward is the team’s every-day right fielder and left field represents the only opportunity for the team to add a power-hitting right-handed bat, which they can’t platoon with Matt Diaz for obvious reasons. The other unsettled bench role is the proverbial left-handed bench bat. Eric Hinske was very good in that role last year and the team should try their best to retain him.
What They Need
As previously mentioned, the team needs a right-handed power-hitting left fielder. They’ve needed this for three years, actually. Troy Glaus and Derrek Lee provided some of the bat part of this last year, but Freddie Freeman–a left-handed hitter–is slated to take over the every-day 1B job in 2011. To balance the line-up and fix the systematic power issue, they have to acquire a right-handed power bat who can play left field.
They also need one more right-handed reliever, capable of pitching the 8th inning. These kind of players are had for $2-4 million every off-season and there’s no need to spend big on it. They just need a strike-throwing righty who can miss a few bats. Preferably he’d also have ground-ball tendencies, because Marek, Kimbrel, Dunn, and O’Flaherty are all fly-ball pitchers.
They need a good, preferably elite, defensive outfielder to occupy a bench spot. It’s hard to find these guys, granted, but they desperately need one and should make it one of their top priorities. There are exactly two places I see the defense improving in 2011. One is at first base where Freeman is an excellent defender, the other is at the 4th OF’er spot. Bad defense has plagued this team for three straight years, fixing the systematic weakness would do a lot to help the pitching staff.
Finally, they need a left-handed bench bat. They probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs without a competent pinch-hitter in Eric Hinske, and even if they don’t retain him they need someone who can do what he does.
What They Don’t Need
The Braves do not need a lead-off hitter. Speed is nice but isn’t integral to success, and the team has several players capable of leading off, including Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Chipper Jones. The only thing that’s crucial to success WRT the lead-off spot is the ability to get on base, and the Braves have plenty of players that can do that.
The Braves do not need for Omar Infante to play every day. No, no, no, no, no. This guy is a utility player for a reason, he is not good enough to play every day. His batting average with Atlanta is an illusion, he doesn’t hit for power, and he walks less than JEFF F’N FRANCOEUR. No, absolutely not. Please keep him on the bench.
The Braves do not need a first baseman, they have one in Freddie Freeman.
The Braves do not need a third baseman, Chipper Jones is going to be ready to play and he’s one of the best offensive third basemen in the game.
The Braves do not need Matt Diaz for reasons previously mentioned.
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Arbitration
Matt Diaz – Non-tender. I love the guy, but it has to be done unless they can trade him for something of value after tendering him a contract.
Peter Moylan – If you can trade him, tender him a contract. He’d be a good starting point for acquiring the aforementioned defensive specialist bench OF’er. Otherwise, non-tender.
Scott Proctor – Hell no, non-tender. He was awful in the minors and majors.
Jair Jurrjens – Very obviously tender him a contract.
Eric O’Flaherty – Tender. He’s effective and won’t cost a whole lot.
Martin Prado – See Jurrjens, Jair.
Club Options
Kyle Farnsworth – Decline.
Rick Ankiel – Decline.
Omar Infante – Exercise.
Alex Gonzalez – Begrudgingly exercise.
Free Agents
Troy Glaus – Let him go. He was good when he was good, but the 2011 team has no use for him.
Derrek Lee – Like Glaus, the 2011 team has no use for him. Thank him for helping the team get to the playoffs and send him packing.
Eric Hinske – Try to retain him for under $2 million. He’s a great bench-player, but he’s just a bench player.
2011 Roster Blueprint
What I think it should look like:
Italics = arbitration salary.
Bold = acquisition.
Assuming the payroll is around $88 million and the Braves save $3 million by trading Kenshin Kawakami, they’ll have about $16.5 million to add the four pieces they need. That is very, very doable, and if the front office constructs the roster properly in 2011 they should have a team capable of both winning their division and having a successful post season tournament once they’re there.
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Which players (that are available), do you think the Braves should acquire with the potential budget you listed ($16.5 mil.)?
You’re slowly becoming my Jesus of Braves analysis.
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I completely agree with this…We need some power I dont think we had anyone hit 30 homeruns. Jayson Werth I think would be the ideal person here but may be too expensive. I also think that we need some speed on the bases and the outfield. I have no clue who this would be however. I am tired of Atlantas outfield changing daily they need to spend some money and pick up the pieces. I think Lowemight be the last person that the Braves spent some money to sign. They need to stop paying top dollar for old guys such as Lowe and Chipper (yes I realize he had a contract) but I think both of their days are just about over.
nice breakdown CA, i agree with 95% of what is said in this article. It would be nice to sign a big bat, but there isnt an affordable one out there for the Braves. I see us trading some young arms to get our LF bat.
I would think that 14-16 million is more than a fair amount of money to acquire what you discussed. Say we make all the moves you say, then resign Hinske and a RH Reliever for a total of 4.5 million. Then we still have 10-12 million in the bank for two outfielders. Seems to me we can go a route where we spend 8 or so on a LF and the rest on a 4th OF. Or split it more evenly and try and upgrade both LF and CF with McClouth playing 4th. I think elite LFs are two thin to go with the former so I kind of expect the latter (can’t say I’m happy with it.)
I know the wet dream scenario is trading for cost-controlled Rasmus and still having money to sign a significant improvement in LF as well, but from what I can tell Rasmus is either staying put or the price for him is going to be so high that we will sit out the discussion. That said is there another cost-controlled CF who could be a slight upgrade, while allowing us to spend money on LF? That would be a trade worth looking into.
Ellsbury maybe, but I don’t see that happening either and he’s really not that good.
I’m hoping we get Coco Crisp (5.25M option w/ the Athletics). Plus defense, switch hitter (better as RH) and playing for a new contract (any empirical evidence of this mattering)?
I’ve kinda given up on getting an elite outfielder and feel like we’re gonna have to settle for platoons again. I’d rather go after a big free agent next year when more money comes off the books and our young starters will be emerging (Beachy, Hanson, Minor, Teheran, + Hudson).
What do you think about getting Magglio Ordonez? He should be fairly cheap but it’s also because he’s coming off an injury, right now I’m hoping for Ordonez or Burrell though
Also I’ve heard Tony Gwynn might be nontendered, he’d definitely be a good 4th outfielder to have at all, dude can’t hit at all but he’s a great fielder
I see that you’ve changed a bit on the right-handed reliever. A while back, you thought they’d throw $8 million at somebody like JJ Putz, in part so they wouldn’t be forced to start the season with Kimbrel or Venters as the closer and instead ease one of them in. Did Kimbrel’s performance down the stretch sway you? Or was it more analytical, such as the greater availability of guys like that in FA or the limited funds the Braves have to spend?
Thanks in advance
What do you think the chances are of Wren getting creative and offering a backloaded deal for Werth that pays him most of his money after Lowe and Chipper come off the books? There’s also the chance that someone besides Liberty Media would own the Braves at that point as well and his contract might be even more palatable if the new owner decides to increase payroll.
I’m not really convinced that Medlen’s frame is incapable of pitching that many innings. Lincecum’s about the same size and he’s held up just fine. Not to mention Strasburg needed Tommy John after 68 innings and he’s basically got the prototypical pitcher’s body. I think it’s more likely that it’s simple bad luck that landed Medlen on the DL. His future role is probably in the bullpen anyways, due to the starting pitching surplus we have, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be an above average starter.
I was just taking a look at the 2011 Outfield Free Agents… What do you guys think about Marcus Thames as a very cheap option. Career stats: 107 OPS+, 0.248/0.311/0.491. 162 game average of 30 HR’s. Also, Andruw Jones posted a 119 OPS+ this year in 330 PA’s after posting a 100 OPS+ in the same number of PA’s in 2009. But wow… it’s looking prettttttty, pretty thin (to quote Larry David) in the outfield FA market.
Andruw’s someone I’ve wanted back for a while now, he’d be great to platoon with McLouth (eventually taking over if McLouth continues to struggle) and iirc he can still field pretty well, but he might be a bit expensive if the Braves end up getting Burrell or Ordonez
tim in mpls/8,
Nah, there’s no evidence that players perform better in their contract year.
grafe/9,
Magglio is squarely on the list.
10,
YES! Gwinn is a perfect fit.
Jason/11,
Just came to the realization that they’re letting Kimbrel close.
DowneasterJC/12,
Zero, forget Werth.
James/13,
Strasburg’s delivery is extremely inefficient, he’s all arm, no separation; which is what I attribute to his UCL injury. I’m not 100% convinced Medlen is incapable of being a starter, but the evidence is starting to mount.
Absolutely what I was hoping to read: smart, thorough analysis. Ya never disappoint.
Do you think getting rid of Kawakami is priority one? Seems like it would give them a more definite idea of what they can afford to do.
I would argue that lincecum hasn’t held up all that well. His fastball velocity has declined quite a bit….
Ordonez wouldn’t come cheap because he fills a lot of teams’ needs. I think we’d also have to commit to at least a second year, and we’d probably need to prepare for him only playing 120 games a season.
On Matt Diaz, I wonder if he could play 1st. If I’m not mistaken he was the backup to David Ross in catching should anything happen. Freeman will need some time off against tough lefties at least. In the second half, after having the splinter removed (seriously though, you have a splinter in your thumb and the offseason lasts 5 months. Get it done then!), he was back above his career line.
Get 6 guys for the bench and 6 relievers. If the ones we have get tired, rotate the back end of the pen with guys in the minors.
I’d LOVE to see Andruw come back, I know he may not be the greatest fit but thats just do to him being my favorite player growing up.
Under the radar guy Atlanta could look at IMO- Bill Hall
I’d take a shot on Kerry Wood for the righthander.
I personally prefer Pat Burrel to Magglio, regardless of his defensive incompetence. And price wise I think he’d be better.
Peter Moylan is the Right handed Reliever you spoke of. Matt Diaz returned to form destroying left handers after hand surgery in june, he’s still a great platoon bat. Why make a meaningless trade for a defensive outfielder when you can use Corey Harrilchak for the same purpose (plus side he’d be a good pinch runner). Making moves for the sake of making moves would put us back to the same spot we were in last time Bobby Cox left the braves.
This is the type of dreck that makes me want to stop allowing comments.
But then what would we have to laugh at?
Joaquin Benoit, Frank Fransisco, and JJ Putz would be good additions to an already strong bullpen. And as far as the free agent market for right handed outfielders, surely 1 of Pat Burrel, Magglio Ordonez, Austin Kearns, Marcus Thames, Bill Hall or Xavier Nady could be attained. Just some thoughts.
I do blame Medlen’s injury on Bobby, though I don’t think it’s because we kept him in the rotation, but rather because we for some reason tried to limit his innings, & by doing so once again changed his routine up. He was finally completely stretched out as a SP (2 months or so worth of starts) & then we put him in the pen around the ASB, even pitching on back to back days once (2 innings the 2nd day), then was used out of the pen in that extra inning game against the Padres, a game we didn’t want to use him in because he was set to start just 3 days later, then went out & made his next start, on just the 3 days rest. He was never effective again in the 3 starts he had thereafter & blew his arm out 2.5 weeks later.
“Assuming the payroll is around $88 million and the Braves save $3 million by trading Kenshin Kawakami, they’ll have about $16.5 million to add the four pieces they need.”
I think it’s more around 15 million if they get rid of Kawakami and save 3 mill, but that’s just splitting hairs. Really great write up, man. I can’t stress how well you hit on all of these points. Couple things:
1. I think Moylan will be tendered a contract. They’ll use some excuse of experience, toughness, etc. If that’s the case, I could see around 2 million in arbitration.
2. We probably are looking at a Pat Burrell or Magglio Ordonez type. But if not, and Wren does decide to go the trade route, I think going after Carlos Quentin would make a lot of sense. Kenny Williams is always looking to shake things up, and if they resign Konerko, maybe they deem Quentin expendable and we can get him for on eof our bullpen arms and additional prospects.
I’ve got the 21 players plus the 3.67 million they’ll eat to move Kawakami at $71,490,666.
Oh & I want neither Matt Diaz or Peter Moylan anywhere near our roster in 2011. I consider non-tendering/trading them as important to our success as important as removing Faily last year & Melky this year. Matt Diaz serves no purpose besides forcing you to have a 5th OF on your roster & Peter Moylan sucks at the one thing you want somebody in his spot (your RH groundball/strikeout guy) to do, strand inherited base runners.
I hope we either go out & get a true cleanup hitting RH LF, in which case we could leave McLouth in CF & get the defensive CF/4th OF you speak of, or that we go out & get 2 consistent guys to play LF/CF (at least one being RH) & use McLouth as our 4th OF.
I am tired of Wren overpaying for veterans that do little to help the team.
Peter, fantastic write-up as always. I only disagree with you about the OF.
Pat Burrell, Magglio Ordonez, Austin Kearns, Marcus Thames, Bill Hall or Xavier Nady are NOT significantly above replacement level. If the Braves go into next year with any of those players penciled into the Opening Day lineup, they will once again have the worst defensive and offensive outfield in the NL. If Werth is certainly out of the picture, then the Braves’ best bet is probably McLouth in LF and a real CF who can actually play that position.
What about using Jordan Schafer as the 4th outfielder? Do you think the braves still view him as a prospect?
What do you think of promoting Matt Young. He could be beneficial to this team. Spend what you can to acquire a bat like Ordonez. If you don’t get a big RH bat then you have to acquire two productive OF and make Nate your 4 OF. Trade for one and then find one via FA.
Burrell and Ordonez are at least league average players.
Hey CAC, I know that you and I have had some back and forth regarding Infante in the past. I certainly do not have any ties to him, but do believe that he could do just as well given the chance to play in a starter’s role. With that being said, do you think we’d be able to give him a contract and turn around shop him as a sell-high candidate?
I think he’d be a decent piece in a trade that could land us a bat that we’d like to have.
Also, I am curious to know, would that potential RH batter hit in the 5th spot behind Prado-Heyward-Chipper-Mac? Then with the possibility of Gonzalez hitting 6th and Freeman 7th? Despite the cost of McLouth, (People need to learn how to spell his name) I don’t think he’d be bad hitting 8th.
CAC, I was wondering if you possibly saw a “window” for the Braves. Like which upcoming year would be your bet for a World Championship. Does the “window” for the Braves ever “close” with such a strong farm system?
I’m guessing that the Braves primary LH PH will be Brooks and that the 4th OF will be LH, but that last spot will go to a RH that can play 1b so that the Braves can sit Freeman against the tougher lefties. Not saying this scenario is better than yours just that it seems like the “Braves” thing to do. My 1st guess would be Conor Jackson for that last spot.
Although, I suppose the Braves could just go with the best bench bat available (probably Hinske) and when said tough lefties are on the mound, slide Prado to 1st and put Infante at 2nd.
Here’s the team I’d like to see.
Trade Jair Jurrjens, Arodys Vizcaino and Stephen Marek to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus.
Sign Maggilo Ordonez – 2 yr/ 12 mil contact.
Sign Conor Jackson – 2 yr/ 4 mil contract.(Pending Non-Tender by the A’s)
Lineup:
Prado – 2B
Heyward – RF
Jones – 3B
Ordonez – LF
McCann – C
Rasmus – CF
Gonzalez – SS
Freeman – 1B
Bench:
Ross – C
Infante – Super Utility
Jackson – 1B/OF/3B
McLouth – OF
Conrad – IF
Rotation:
Hudson – RHP
Hanson – RHP
Lowe – RHP
Minor – LHP
Beachy – RHP
Bullpen:
Kawakami – LRP(hopefully the Braves can dump him)
Martinez – LRP
Dunn – LOOGY
Moylan – MRP/SUP
O’Flaherty – MRP/SUP
Venters – SUP
Kimbrel – CP
“I’ve got the 21 players plus the 3.67 million they’ll eat to move Kawakami at $71,490,666.”
Did you account for Chipper’s pro rated signing bonus over the length of his contract? That would mean he’s at 14 million. Also, if Nate McLouth has that 1.25 million dollar buyout for 2012, shouldn’t that factor in for 2011′s dollar value? My guess is that is paid with 2011 salary since in 2012 he will be making a salary elsewhere. So we may looking at something around 14.25m or 11.25m, depending on Kawakami. That’s the way Liberty/Braves management uses the BS accounting rules on salary.
In response to the comments suggesting Jordan Schafer or Michael Young as the 4th (defensive) outfielder. I’d imagine the Braves haven’t given up on Schafer being able to be a productive regular yet. For Young, while I really like the guy, he doesn’t he fits the bill for an ‘elite’ defensive outfielder. A blast from the past might be Ryan Langerhans.
Given the lack of impact talent in the free agent market, the Braves will probably pursue something via trade. Perhaps a Hunter Pence-esque acquisition (or buy low on Josh Willingham).
Or maybe us fans can get lucky and get Jermaine Dye. He should be fresh.
Thank you so much for offering Braves commentary with brains. Great post.
I will say that in my view, Chipper — long my favorite professional athlete — can no longer be productive. The best part of his 2010 offensive campaign was OBP, and that will decline as pitchers stop pitching around him and he can’t take as many walks. His defense will obviously be below league average, and he will be injury prone. So in 2011, Chipper is most likely to provide subpar defense, offensive production at or below the average 3B, and a high injury risk. For that player the Braves will pay $13m. I like Chipper Jones, but it’s hard to be objectively optimistic about his 2011 campaign. The best thing for the Braves, and for Chipper’s remembrances of his career, would be retirement.
I couldn’t agree more with axing Diaz. Seems like a great guy, but a bad defensive outfielder with no patience who can only hit lefties (and isn’t even all that good at hitting lefties) just isn’t useful. Moylan’s case is clear too, with an ascending walk rate and descending velocity.
That’s not the point, though. We know Diaz & Moylan need to go. The question is are the Braves willing to non-tender those guys? I’m afraid we’ll see both of them back.
This is probably all moot for me, though. I don’t think I’ll be able to live through a full season of Alex Gonzalez ABs. My brain is due to explode by around the All Star Break.
Oh, and if you’ll forgive some grammatical nitpicking, the last sentence of the first paragraph should read “who’s less patient” not “whose.”
A few more names to consider:
Swisher (better as a RHB, fine defense for corner OF, Cashman and Wren have traded before)
AlSoriano (but we’d need about $40M cash in the deal)
RyRaburn (but why would the Tigers trade?)
Alex Rios (again, we’d need a lot of cash)
BJ Upton (pipe dream)
Cuddyer (versatile; would Twins like to get his 10.5M off the books after a subpar year, when Mauer’s big salary kicks in next year?)
Ludwick (I’m afraid he may be the answer, though not really a solution)
In short, Wren is going to have be really creative to find an affordable solution.
If Bobby were coming back, I’d wager a ton on Moylan getting tendered. At least he is fun to watch, as that frisbee slider can make batters look foolish. And he is the easy, if not the best, solution to needing a ground-baller, as Peter notes we do (fun fact: Venters and Moylan were 1-2 among all MLB relievers in GB%).
I also wonder how much Diaz’s success against the Marlins will influence Fredi.
Dream land possible, but I’ve read on MLB trade rumors, that the Royals are shopping Grienke, and the Rays are shopping B.J. Upton.
Braves swing a deal with the Royals, and get Grienke, for their good prospects.
Then trade off Jair Jurrens to the Rays, for B.J. Upton, the Rays have to cut cost, and this is one place they will go to cut their cost.
Just an idea.
Then Nate, Diaz could play the platoon role in LF, and Upton would be the everyday CF. I think this makes the team so much stronger. The rotation would be much better and the lineup would be much stronger.
1) Upton CF
2) Prado 2B
3) Chipper 3B
4) McCann C
5) Heyward RF
6) Freeman 1B
7) Gonzalez SS
8) Nate/Diaz LF
Rotation
1) Grienke
2) Hudson
3) Lowe
4) Hanson
5) Beachy/ Minor
6) Medlen returns after Tommy John
If they could teach Diaz to play first then I think that he would be great to keep around otherwise let him go. As for left field what is the status of Cody Ross? He is someone Wren should have gone after last year. I also like the idea of getting Kerry Wood but I read that the Yanks want to bring him back, the Braves aren’t going to be able to compete against them.
NEBravesfan33/39,
I didn’t account for Chipper’s signing bonus, which I should have. I didn’t account for Nate’s buyout, either, but that goes on the 2012 books.
If Burrell and Ordonez are league average, what is gained by signing them?
Seriously?
OK, I’m going to pretend you actually don’t know the answer to this question, just to humor you.
Signing a league average player to play left field would add between 2 and 3 wins because the team has gotten sub-replacement level production out of the spot for a few years and doesn’t have a better internal option. The effect might even be greater because as right-handed power hitters they balance the line-up, taking away the opportunity for the opposing manager to use lefty-specialists all the way through the middle of the order, and fix the team’s biggest systematic weakness–the lack of power, specifically right-handed power.
On trading Jurrjens….
I think you do it if you can get full value, because you may not be able to get that a year from now. But I don’t think anyone will do that after his multiple (three?) injuries this past year. The problem is we have a logjam in 2012, but if you trade KK to Japan, and trade away Jurrjens, then there’s nothing to fall back on in case of injury in 2011. Beachy is probably the guy left out in both 2011 and 2012, AND you’d be selling high on him right now, so he’s the clear trade option.
Peter,
Great analysis, as always.
But I think you overstate the probability that Chipper will be healthy next year. I think they will need someone to spell and also replace Chipper when he inevitably goes on the DL.
Shouldn’t the Braves try to find a back up 3rd baseman (someone preferably who can spell Freeman at 1b as well)? Or do you think the Prado at 3rd, Infante at 2nd is a better solution?
This is my big concern, b/c I don’t really see any affordable options about that would be able to fill those roles w/o being a terrible hitter, fielder, or (likely) both.