Addressing the needs: 4th OF’er
October 31, 2010 at 10:04 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
The defensive deficiencies of the Atlanta Braves have been blatantly apparent to the observant fan and well-documented by nearly everyone with a typewriter and an active telephone line as of late, so I won’t spend too much time discussing the fact that they need to improve defensively. Things in the universe more apparent could be counted using the digits of a typical human. The organization took the first step in that regard shortly after they were eliminated from the playoffs by naming Terry Pendleton their 1B/Fielding Coach. The fact that he was removed from his hitting coach position doesn’t seem significant to me (I’m with Mac), but the fact that Chino Cadahia won’t be responsible for fielding instruction or defensive alignments does. In his playing career Pendleton was a much better fielder than hitter outside of ’91 and ’92 (career dWAR – 7.9, career oWAR – 6.5; 1991 and 1992 excluded) and I’ve always thought he’d be best used as a fielding coach. Not that I think he did a poor job as hitting coach or that he’s responsible for the team’s somewhat deservedly perceived offensive ineptitude the past few years–I don’t–just that letting him instruct players about the thing at which he truly excelled at would be a better allocation of resources. Maybe it will be, maybe not, but from here it’s a reasonable decision and calls for as big a dose of cautious optimism as a coaching staff change could possibly merit.
Though coaches can coach, the players have to play, and the decision to use Pendleton as the fielding instructor has to be augmented with some player personnel changes that improve the team’s defense. It’s going to be difficult to do this. The team’s entire starting infield–along with their right-fielder–is set in stone and they’re likely stuck with a bad defensive CF’er. The only starting spot for which the Braves likely don’t already have a player they’re committed to in 2011 is left field. Good defensive left-fielders don’t have a ton of impact. Further muting their opportunity for improvement is the fact that the team desperately needs an offensive threat to play left field and probably doesn’t have the resources to acquire a complete player (because they either don’t have the money to sign the Crawford/Werth types or won’t part with their top pitching prospects for a Kemp/Rasmus type).
There are two ways we can reasonably expect the Braves to improve defensively in 2010 that don’t involve individual players taking massive steps forward (something we shouldn’t rule out). One is by replacing Troy Glaus/Derrek Lee with Freddie Freeman. Just like replacing Francoeur/Church with Heyward in 2010 improved the team’s defense, Freeman should give the right-side of the field another shot of youth and, more importantly, plus fielding ability. Freeman has soft hands and great receiving skills, good mobility for a 1B, and a strong arm. He could be one of the better first basemen in the league next year and will certainly be an above-average defender in 2011.
The other is by replacing Matt Diaz with an elite defensive OF’er to a) be leveraged in the late innings as a defensive replacement and b) improve the team’s defense on days in which Nate McLouth, Jason Heyward, or Atlanta’s left fielder to be named later don’t play. Coupling the move with getting McLouth more instruction on and reads in left field would greatly improve the team’s chances of holding leads late. Imagine the team’s outfield defense if McLouth were accustomed to playing left such that he’s at least a league-average defender there along with Heyward in right and a +15 center fielder in the middle. You’re looking at a ~+20-to-+30 defensive outfield.
The problem is finding elite defensive center fielders that can hit is nearly impossible–you have to develop them yourself–so this type of alignment can’t be employed most of the time if the Braves plan to score enough runs. Therefore, the solution is to find the best defensive OF’er you can get for under $2.5 million (regardless of his probably non-existent ability to hit) and maximize his ratio of defensive innings to plate appearances. After their left-fielder gets his 3rd or 4th PA of the game, the elite defender comes in to finish it out with McLouth in left, rinse, and repeat.
But even if they can’t hit, these guys aren’t easy to find and I can only think of two respectable options and a few more back-up plans. And they are:
Carlos Gomez — Gomez can’t hit at all, but he’s a legitimate 70 fielder. With excellent speed, a good arm, and great instincts, he’s one of the two most ideal players in the game for the role I’m talking about. The Brewers will use Lorenzo Cain as their primary center fielder in 2011 and may elect to keep Chris Dickerson as their 4th OF’er and dispose of Gomez. Gomez is eligible for arbitration, but won’t get much of a raise on account of his inability to hit and is looking at a sub-$2 million salary in 2011 if the Brewers offer him arbitration. It’s up in the air whether or not they do, but even if he isn’t non-tendered he should be available via trade (Moylan for Gomez?).
Tony Gwynn Jr. — Gwynn made some offensive progress in 2010 that didn’t show up because his batting average on balls in play fell to .236 and he hit only .204/.304/.287. He’s not much of a hitter, but his true talent level is probably closer to his career .244/.323/.314 line than his 2010 campaign would indicate. That’s not why he’s a fit for Atlanta, though. He’s an elite defender in center with burner speed and an average arm; having saved 22 runs in just over 1500 innings over the past two years according to +/-. Like Gomez, he’s one of the two most ideal players in the game for the team’s defensive specialist role and like Gomez he may be non-tendered in the offseason. This is Gwynn’s first time being eligible for arbitration and the Padres may elect to cut him lose and go with a Ludwick/Venable/Blanks/Cunningham/Durango rotation rather than giving him a sizable raise via arbitration. Even if they don’t non-tender him, he would probably be available in a trade.
Some other guys:
Matt Young — I figure I’d mention the lone internal option. He’s a better defensive outfielder than anyone the Braves have on their roster, but he’s far from spectacular with the glove. They could do worse. They could do better, too.
Dewayne Wise — His perfect game-saving catch with the White Sox in 2009 was no fluke, he’s an elite defender in center. He’ll provide even less value with the bat than the other guys mentioned, but if leveraged properly Wise could be an asset on a team needing to improve their outfield defense.
Josh Anderson — Our old friend hasn’t hit enough to latch on as a regular since being traded to Detroit during 2009 spring training, but he was never ticketed to be an offensive star anyway. He could be useful if leveraged exclusively as a defensive replacement, though. While he could be had for nothing, his defensive skills aren’t particularly refined and gets by on the field exclusively on his speed. They’d probably do just as well to use Matt Young.
Alfredo Amezaga — Another one of those he can’t hit but he can run types, Amezaga can play nearly anywhere on the field. He’s been a plus defender in center and at SS who could be leveraged all over the place. Unfortunately he’s 33 years old next year and played all of 1 pro game at AA last year, and there’s not much of a way to know how much he’s got left.
Loading ...
I was gonna say I’d rather take Gomez over Gwynn since he’s a righty but then I saw that his splits are virtually identical, so I’d like to have Gwynn. Gwynn could probably be a real asset if he hit at his 2009 level
Would it be worth it to look at bringing langerhans back into the fold? I seem to recall him being quite good with the glove, and Seattle is supposed to non-tender him….
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: Addressing the needs: 4th OF'er — http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3214 [...]
Gomez is intriguing to me, if he could find a way to capture the form that made him a high end prospect at one time he could be a very good surprise. Heck, if he could figure out how to hit .260 he’d probably be a starting CF.
If he hit 260 his obp would still be under 300
If you want to focus on defense, Nate McLouth cannot be part of the equation.
Anyway, it’s really hard to pinpoint who your 4th OF should be until you know who makes up your starting OF.
If Schaefer can show the wrist is healthy in the spring wouldn’t he be the cheapest/best fit for this role?
I’d be ready to give up on “developing” him to get some value in the role you’ve laid out.
What about bringing our old friend Willie Harris in as a 4th OF, defensive replacement and pinch-runner? An ATL native and clubhouse favorite, he could probably be signed through FA for ~1M.
Willie Harris is a Cairo, GA native, which is most decidedly not Atlanta.
Semantics, geographically.
I meant native to “ATL Braves ‘Country’” as he said in his 2007 tenure that he always grew up wanting to be a Brave and loves the area. He has a ring IIRC, so can also bring some level of veteran-ship to the club.
He can also play SS, 3B, and 2B in a pinch in addition to all three OF positions.
You acknowledged my post to correct what you saw to be an error, but ignored the question of the post itself. Do you see him as a possible option to fill that need? Or is his left-handedness that big of a deciding factor?
@ Chris
Don’t think left-handedness would be a factor in choosing a defensive outfielder. He would be there to cover ground, catch a ball, and throw it in. I think the issue would be if he is considered ‘enough’ of a defensive replacement. Fangraphs has his fielding stats all over the map over the last few years (though generally above-average). This is probably due to his limited appearances/plays.
Plus at 33 years of age, I’d imagine he is more on the decline of production.
Otherwise, I like Willie Harris, I live in DC and always cheer for the guy when hes playing. As long as the Braves don’t over-pay him, there are worse 4th OF options.
I really think that if we’re going to make that 4th OF a defensive guy, then we need to look real close at Schaefer. If he is physically ready to go in the spring, maybe a new set of eyes in Parrish can get him straightened out. He would also bring speed and some potential upside.
I would still rather see a Chris Young, Upton, Rasmus type out in CF, even if costs us a couple of young pitchers.
If we have a legit defensive CF, then that 4th guy doesn’t have to D only. I never liked those type guys, more of an AL thing with the DH. I just think we have to get away from pitching non OF in LF and mediocre guys in CF. Diaz is a dh, Hinske is a dh, Infante is a 2b, Melkie was fat and Nate was lost. If we don’t have those guys out there, I think we can try to get a more well-rounded 4th guy and not just a potential Gold Glove, tin bat type of guy
Cairo’s basically a South Georgia railroad lumberyard stop. It is not Atlanta. Its not even Calhoun. It is almost Gulf Coast Pineola territory.
He’s the first person I thought of for this role, really just cause he’s so killed the Braves recently that it would be great to get him (and Cody Ross) away from the plate when the Braves are pitching. He can handle the corners and some infield, and that’s great flexibility, but I think Peter’s point is this defensive OF spot needs to go to a true centerfielder, and so Gwynn, Gomez and some of the other options are better suited.
I wouldn’t cry if they could pry Dickerson away from the Brewers instead of Gomez. Little better with the bat, better OBP, and while not as complete, my memory of him is one of being capable in CF.
Schafer needs to show he’s not absolutely awful with the bat in the minors anymore before he should get a chance at winning a roster spot, the guy was demoted to AA after all
Fourth outfielder? Easy. Matt Young
The Braves already have a center fielder who fits the criteria, Rick Ankiel. Excellent speed, defense and arm. Might surprise at the plate as he settles in. Why not?
Ankiel’s option is too expensive and he’s really not that great in the field. If he wants to sign with Atlanta for less than $2 million and assume a defensive-replacement role, sure. I doubt he’d settle for that though.
CAC,
Curious why you are going “backwards” in needs from less critical and problematic to more critical. it seems as if the 4th Righthander in the bullpen (or possible 1st) and the 4th Outifielder might not need to be addressed until the biggest single need (good offense with at least mediocre defense or great offense with less than tragic defense in left, almost assuredly in light of Freeman, to be a righthanded hitter or switchitter who doesn’t suffer from the right).
I can see this secondarily affecting the “4th outfielder” thing. If we keep McLouth (I agree with you, likely) and get a Magglio, then I would rather spend 2 mill extra to get that player and let Matt Young have 4th OF than try to go get Gwynn or whoever for 2 million.
Gwynn and Gomez will both likely be very cheap, like I doubt they’d even approach 2 mill
cliff,
Because I want to promote discussion about the smaller yet still important parts of the team. If I wrote the left fielder post first most people would pay no attention to the other three and just argue about Pat Burrell vs. Magglio Ordonez for a month straight.
Cairo is also the birthplace of Jackie Robinson for yall’s informtion.
Harrilchak is tearing up the AFL, early at least. Is his defense good enough to consider for this role coming into ST? or would the team prefer to continue developing him even if he seems ready?
I would love to see them give Matt Young a shot and use the extra money on a solid LF. Matt has put together 3 solid seasons. He will probably never be a starting LF, but he would be great off the bench.
Schafer could do just as good a job as either Gwynn or Gomez with the bat and on D so why waste 1-2 mil on a no bat, all defense guy when we already have one who still has potential as well with the bat that would cost only 400+K.
Cory Harrilchak has never played above class A and is not ready at all. He won’t be considered for any MLB role.
Jay212033/24,
Because Schafer needs regular at bats. And he couldn’t do as well as Gwynn or Gomez in 2011. He eventually could be that good in the field, but needs to refine his defensive skills. Impressive defensive tools, but he had no idea what he was doing in the field in his MLB stint in 2009.
I will now consider the Braves and Giants even after this season and the 1993 season.
How about Coco Crisp? Great fielder, decent bat, great speed and cheap.
How about Will Venable? Good fielder, decent bat, nice speed.
Venable is staying with the Padres unless there’s a trade, Crisp will be making 5+ million next year since the A’s are likely to exercise his option
This is slightly off topic,earlier in the season Bill Shanks(sports south) suggested that the Orioles would probably do an Adam Jones for Jiar Jurrgens. I think Bill might be a little out of his depth on this one, but he would be a good fit.
Isn’t Josh Anderson still in our system? I thought that he was resigned around the All Star break and playing for Gwinnett (where he abysmal with the bat).
I’d like to see Gwynn Jr on the bench. I’ve seen that guy in the field and it’s pretty amazing.
No way Baltimore makes that move.
@ 30/31
A Jurrjens for Jones would be an interesting swap, but that being said I’m not sure Adam Jones would be a great fit. Besides playing CF (a more valuable position), he’s basically been Francoeur with more power over the last two years.
Jones (K%) 2010 : 20%
Frenchy (K%) 2010: 18%
Jones (BB%) 2010 : 4%
Frenchy (BB%) 2010: 6%
I’m not saying I wouldn’t mind Jones at CF over McLouth, obviously I would.
Remember, Jones goes into his first round of arbitration in 2011 as does Jurrjens.
I’d think a trade would probably be a wash for both teams as far as value is concerned. Jones seems to be less valuable (according to fgWAR), but Jurrjen’s now has an injury risk.
I’d rather keep Jurrjens, according to UZR Jones is a below average fielder and although McLouth was horrific in the field this year I think he’ll bounce back and put up an 800 ops and probably be around his average fielding level he was at in 09
Schafer is done. He has been ever since he quit taking steriods. That is why he is in such a decline. The 50 game suspension, plus no more drugs = about what I can do.
Schafer never took steroids, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
I am with Don why not use some of our young pitchers and go after someone like Kemp Either Upton or Young and sign Gomez and use him in Lf. I mean if it means giving up Minor Dunn Beachy Tehran or anyone along with maybe Infante or Mclouth i say do it.
Get Gregor Blanco . Hes a 300 hitter has good speed and defense above average arm, and we should have never traded him to begin with.
@ 37
The Braves aren’t going to pursue Gomez to have him play LF. LF is suppose to be a power position. Gomez would be an option to be the 4th OF only. His bat isn’t good enough to play at CF let alone LF.
Also the Braves are going to have to pay someone to take McLouth off their hands. He doesn’t have any positive value right now.
They’re probably just going to keep him, rather than paying someone to take him off their hands.
He had a bad year, he’s still a decent player. Decent players have bad years sometimes.
Gregor Blanco is not a .300 hitter.
McClouth would be of far more value if he would learn the role of the leadoff hitter and use his speed. Drop lots of bunts, keep the infield honest and leg some out. McClouth is not and never was a power hitter, why has noone pointed that out to him yet?! The Braves need a CF that will use his speed to spark the team and get on base!
Don’t take it the wrong way, I’m not for giving Teheran or Minor up. But a combination from the rest of them, even if it meant giving up Venters or Kimbrell for the right young controllable bat. With guys like Delgado, Beachy and even Jurrjens, it had better be someone that is fairly cheap, under control and a good upside, like the Twins getting Young for Garza a couple of years ago.
I still think that Ben Zobrist would be a good fit, but then I would like to see a better defensive option in CF, at least as a platoon with McLouth. If the Red Sox were willing to eat most of Mike Cameron’s salary, maybe we could give them an Ortegano type prospect.
Don’t take it the wrong way, I’m not for giving Teheran or Minor up. But a combination from the rest of them, even if it meant giving up Venters or Kimbrell for the right young controllable bat. With guys like Delgado, Beachy and even Jurrjens, it had better be someone that is fairly cheap, under control and a good upside, like the Twins getting Young for Garza a couple of years ago.
I still think that Ben Zobrist would be a good fit, but then I would like to see a better defensive option in CF, at least as a platoon with McLouth. If the Red Sox were willing to eat most of Mike Cameron’s salary, maybe we could give them an Ortegano type prospect.
As far as guys not on the radar, anyone interested in Michael Morse or Fernando Martinez.
A couple of comments to the post and some of the comments:
1. The A’s have already exercised Coco Crisp’s option, so he is not available, at least not as a free agent.
2. There is no evidence that Schafer took steroids, but that does not mean we can flat out say that he never did. The only issue with Schafer was HGH, and even there the evidence was sketchy. Still, he probably deserved the suspension if for nothing more than being stupid enough to be caught being around HGH.
3. Matt Young is a decent defensive outfielder. However, in the blog post, you state “He’s a better defensive outfielder than anyone the Braves have on their roster.” This is just not true. And you don’t want to slight they guy who is better—he’s really young, really really good, and he is huge. If you don’t take it back, he is liable to break your car windows with baseballs.
Strange that nothing is ever mentioned about how terrible McLouth’s arm is, he’s shown me since he’s been with the Braves that he doesn’t even trust his noodle arm (not making throws that MIGHT have been close) I don’t doubt his range but I want a CF who isn’t afraid to launch the ball to 2nd, 3rd or home if need be. No matter what happens if we only end up getting one legit OF I say McLouth goes to left field.
Cavebird, I’m not so sure Heyward is that great with the glove. He moves well and has a +arm, but his ability to go back on the ball, particulary timing his jump and catch balls, needs much improvement.
There were countless doubles and homers that went off his glove this year — very catchable balls for someone touted as a 5 tool player.
He has the ability to dominate defensively, but I don’t think he’s there yet.
Is Joe Mather that guy? I don’t the Braves making a priority out of the 4th OF spot, what with not having three OFs at the moment. Is Mather organizational fodder, or are they hoping he returns to the defensive abilities of 2008?
Why not mention a Matt Kemp trade? or did I miss it above.
Joe Mather is not that guy.
Please keep the discussion on-topic. This is a post about 4th outfielders. Matt Kemp isn’t a 4th OF’er (yet).
Cavebird,
You’re wrong about Young. I don’t love the guy, but he’s capable of playing an average-to-slightly-below-average MLB CF, which is a lot more than any outfielder on the active roster can say.