Addressing the needs: 4th OF’er
October 31, 2010 at 10:04 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
The defensive deficiencies of the Atlanta Braves have been blatantly apparent to the observant fan and well-documented by nearly everyone with a typewriter and an active telephone line as of late, so I won’t spend too much time discussing the fact that they need to improve defensively. Things in the universe more apparent could be counted using the digits of a typical human. The organization took the first step in that regard shortly after they were eliminated from the playoffs by naming Terry Pendleton their 1B/Fielding Coach. The fact that he was removed from his hitting coach position doesn’t seem significant to me (I’m with Mac), but the fact that Chino Cadahia won’t be responsible for fielding instruction or defensive alignments does. In his playing career Pendleton was a much better fielder than hitter outside of ’91 and ’92 (career dWAR – 7.9, career oWAR – 6.5; 1991 and 1992 excluded) and I’ve always thought he’d be best used as a fielding coach. Not that I think he did a poor job as hitting coach or that he’s responsible for the team’s somewhat deservedly perceived offensive ineptitude the past few years–I don’t–just that letting him instruct players about the thing at which he truly excelled at would be a better allocation of resources. Maybe it will be, maybe not, but from here it’s a reasonable decision and calls for as big a dose of cautious optimism as a coaching staff change could possibly merit.
Though coaches can coach, the players have to play, and the decision to use Pendleton as the fielding instructor has to be augmented with some player personnel changes that improve the team’s defense. It’s going to be difficult to do this. The team’s entire starting infield–along with their right-fielder–is set in stone and they’re likely stuck with a bad defensive CF’er. The only starting spot for which the Braves likely don’t already have a player they’re committed to in 2011 is left field. Good defensive left-fielders don’t have a ton of impact. Further muting their opportunity for improvement is the fact that the team desperately needs an offensive threat to play left field and probably doesn’t have the resources to acquire a complete player (because they either don’t have the money to sign the Crawford/Werth types or won’t part with their top pitching prospects for a Kemp/Rasmus type).
There are two ways we can reasonably expect the Braves to improve defensively in 2010 that don’t involve individual players taking massive steps forward (something we shouldn’t rule out). One is by replacing Troy Glaus/Derrek Lee with Freddie Freeman. Just like replacing Francoeur/Church with Heyward in 2010 improved the team’s defense, Freeman should give the right-side of the field another shot of youth and, more importantly, plus fielding ability. Freeman has soft hands and great receiving skills, good mobility for a 1B, and a strong arm. He could be one of the better first basemen in the league next year and will certainly be an above-average defender in 2011.
The other is by replacing Matt Diaz with an elite defensive OF’er to a) be leveraged in the late innings as a defensive replacement and b) improve the team’s defense on days in which Nate McLouth, Jason Heyward, or Atlanta’s left fielder to be named later don’t play. Coupling the move with getting McLouth more instruction on and reads in left field would greatly improve the team’s chances of holding leads late. Imagine the team’s outfield defense if McLouth were accustomed to playing left such that he’s at least a league-average defender there along with Heyward in right and a +15 center fielder in the middle. You’re looking at a ~+20-to-+30 defensive outfield.
The problem is finding elite defensive center fielders that can hit is nearly impossible–you have to develop them yourself–so this type of alignment can’t be employed most of the time if the Braves plan to score enough runs. Therefore, the solution is to find the best defensive OF’er you can get for under $2.5 million (regardless of his probably non-existent ability to hit) and maximize his ratio of defensive innings to plate appearances. After their left-fielder gets his 3rd or 4th PA of the game, the elite defender comes in to finish it out with McLouth in left, rinse, and repeat.
But even if they can’t hit, these guys aren’t easy to find and I can only think of two respectable options and a few more back-up plans. And they are:
Carlos Gomez — Gomez can’t hit at all, but he’s a legitimate 70 fielder. With excellent speed, a good arm, and great instincts, he’s one of the two most ideal players in the game for the role I’m talking about. The Brewers will use Lorenzo Cain as their primary center fielder in 2011 and may elect to keep Chris Dickerson as their 4th OF’er and dispose of Gomez. Gomez is eligible for arbitration, but won’t get much of a raise on account of his inability to hit and is looking at a sub-$2 million salary in 2011 if the Brewers offer him arbitration. It’s up in the air whether or not they do, but even if he isn’t non-tendered he should be available via trade (Moylan for Gomez?).
Tony Gwynn Jr. — Gwynn made some offensive progress in 2010 that didn’t show up because his batting average on balls in play fell to .236 and he hit only .204/.304/.287. He’s not much of a hitter, but his true talent level is probably closer to his career .244/.323/.314 line than his 2010 campaign would indicate. That’s not why he’s a fit for Atlanta, though. He’s an elite defender in center with burner speed and an average arm; having saved 22 runs in just over 1500 innings over the past two years according to +/-. Like Gomez, he’s one of the two most ideal players in the game for the team’s defensive specialist role and like Gomez he may be non-tendered in the offseason. This is Gwynn’s first time being eligible for arbitration and the Padres may elect to cut him lose and go with a Ludwick/Venable/Blanks/Cunningham/Durango rotation rather than giving him a sizable raise via arbitration. Even if they don’t non-tender him, he would probably be available in a trade.
Some other guys:
Matt Young — I figure I’d mention the lone internal option. He’s a better defensive outfielder than anyone the Braves have on their roster, but he’s far from spectacular with the glove. They could do worse. They could do better, too.
Dewayne Wise — His perfect game-saving catch with the White Sox in 2009 was no fluke, he’s an elite defender in center. He’ll provide even less value with the bat than the other guys mentioned, but if leveraged properly Wise could be an asset on a team needing to improve their outfield defense.
Josh Anderson — Our old friend hasn’t hit enough to latch on as a regular since being traded to Detroit during 2009 spring training, but he was never ticketed to be an offensive star anyway. He could be useful if leveraged exclusively as a defensive replacement, though. While he could be had for nothing, his defensive skills aren’t particularly refined and gets by on the field exclusively on his speed. They’d probably do just as well to use Matt Young.
Alfredo Amezaga — Another one of those he can’t hit but he can run types, Amezaga can play nearly anywhere on the field. He’s been a plus defender in center and at SS who could be leveraged all over the place. Unfortunately he’s 33 years old next year and played all of 1 pro game at AA last year, and there’s not much of a way to know how much he’s got left.
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While the Braves are skimping on free agent signings, what about recently-released Micah Owings who could be had for a song.
He has more home runspe at-bats than anyone in Turner Field and has always been used as a pinch hitter.
If McDowell cannot teach him command, then convert him to an outfielder. He would be way ahead offensively of Ankiel and is not too slow to palay either corner OF spot.
Why not go after a decent Cf and in the trade get a backup OF like going after Adam Jones Kemp or anyone of the Upton brother and in the trade ask for someone like Felix Pie (bal) Ryan Church (ari) justin ruggianio (tb) reed Johnson or Trent Oeltjen (LAD)
i still think we need to make a deal for a power bat well its a Cf or a firstbaseman and then sign Hinske to be our 4th OF’er
if we dont add any powerbats next season will end like this season
The phillies are rumored to be persuing Aaron Rowand. If they get him then the Phillies may consider trading Victorino. We could use a guy like him!
hinske isnt a 4th outfielder..we need defense! the braves nearly led the league in errors(they actually might have led it). hinske isnt going to cut it for us-yea, hes a great pinch hitter but hes sooo slow! and melky, and diaz..get rid of them all! the only one i might consider keeping of those guys is diaz and thats only because hes a hustler and he’s by far the quickest of the 3
im not sure how probable this is- but what about a trade for franklin gutierrez? i wouldnt really know who to send their way but i really like that guy! and talk about a plus fielder –>he didnt make an error this year!
but of the guys mentioned up there…i like gwynn jr..then maybe gwynn sr. can be our new hitting coach!!! haha
the braves need to give up good prospects to get good players if your going to trade good prospects might as well get a left/center feilder that can hit, i would like to see matt Kemp as a brave he gives speed,power, and importantly defence.
Despite his age, Bill Hall should be considered. He can be your fourth outfielder, your fifth infielder, and your best pinch-hitter.
Would the Braves consider dealing Infante for an outfielder. Don’t get me wrong, I know he’s extremely great off the bench, but isn’t it possible a team might overpay him as a starter after last year.
Would Atlanta maybe try to make a blockbuster trade for Ryan Braun. Something like Matt Diaz, Mike Minor and 1 or 2 high pitching prospects for Braun. The Brewers need pitching badly, plus if they trade Braun they might could afford to keep Fielder.
Also, could though make a run at a Matt Holliday, the Cardinals need to shed payroll to prepare to resign Pujols next offseason.
And what about Vernon Wells, Curtis Granderson or Nick Markakais. Just some thoughts.
The Braves won’t be able to acquire Braun without including Hanson and a bunch of prospects. This is one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.
Phillip, Vernon Wells makes over $60MM the next three years. I deffinatly don’t want that. Markakis is due something like $54MM the next four years and was essentially 85% of Jason Heyward, again way to pricey. Holiday isn’t going anywhere soon. If the Yankees go against their word (shockingly) and pursue a Crawford/Werth then Granderson may be available, but .215/.274/.346/.621 is his line against lefties and $18MM is alot to pay for a platoon bat.
Braun’s the man. But not for Tommy. Why are we discussing a 4th outfielder? I want an impact player or two.
It’s barely worth mentioning, but both the Brewers and Pirates are in need of pitching and we have several guys who could be moved Beachy, Marek, Moylan, Proctor to name a few that we could deal for Lorenzo Cain or Jose Tabata and either of them could be a starter at least eventually. The only reason they would make a move like that is pitching desperation, but we could reap the benefits of their misfortune. The Brewers would rather move Carlos Gomez, but Cain would be a fit, with above average defense.
with the Reds not bringing him back, Nix would seem to be a good fit as the 4th OF and late-inning defensive replacement
What about the possibility of signing Andruw Jones for a 4th?