Pursuing Dan Uggla would be a mistake
November 15, 2010 at 5:41 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Constructing a roster or part thereof with the sole intention of beating a single team is a foolish endeavor. Letting the emotions associated with a player hitting twenty three home runs against your team over the past five years effect your judgment related to roster decisions is equally foolish. The fact that Dan Uggla is perceived as a ‘Braves killer’ for not entirely rational reasons should not influence the Braves’ decision to pursue him or pass.
Granted, his career .900 OPS against the Braves over 89 games isn’t the only reason fans would like to see him hitting in the middle of Atlanta’s order. The overall career .263/.349/.488 line he’s amassed while playing his home games in a place that depresses offense (career 117 OPS+) or the fact that he’s averaged 31 homers a year or his durability (he’s missed at most 16 games in a single season over his five-year career while averaging 154 a year) are objective and rational reasons to think of Uggla as the solution to the Braves’ biggest problem–the lack of power, specifically right-handed. While having Uggla bat 5th for the 2011 Braves is undeniably a better option than anyone currently in the organization, failing to evaluate further would be ignoring several significant problems and might result in an avoidable mistake.
Problem one has to do with his position. Dan Uggla is a second baseman. The Braves already have a second baseman in Martin Prado, a second basemen who has been nearly as good of a hitter (career 115 OPS+) and a decidedly better fielder than Uggla. Moving the former to make room for the latter–who will cost somewhere between $5 and $8 million more in addition to the prospects shipped out to obtain him–would not improve the team enough to justify the cost if at all. Uggla also played 3B in the minors. The Braves already have a 3rd baseman in Chipper Jones, a third baseman who has been a better hitter than Uggla even over his most recent “down years” (OBP-heavy 118 OPS+ versus Uggla’s 121). Whether or not Uggla is a better defensive 3rd basemen than Chipper is a matter up for debate, but the fact that Chipper Jones is owed $14 million in 2011 and can’t be moved without his permission* makes the point moot; Dan Uggla will not be Atlanta’s 3rd basemen in 2011.
*Hoping Chipper changes his mind about retirement or re-injures himself so Uggla can be pursued is not productive. Furthermore, Chipper retiring or re-injuring himself would in no way be a positive thing for the 2011 Braves, regardless of the implications it may have related to Uggla. Finding a player to replace Chipper’s .400 on base average would be virtually impossible, with or without the $14 million he’s owed in 2011.
The only position Uggla could conceivably play for the 2011 Braves is left field, given it’s one of two places they don’t have a set-in-stone player installed and his immobility prohibits him from playing center field. Speaking of which, Uggla doesn’t move well enough to play an average LF, and seeing as he’s played all of twenty professional games at the position you can safely wager he is capable of providing next-to-zero defensive value as an outfielder.
It may be true that most of the other options aren’t capable of providing any more defensive value in left than Uggla is, but the fact that twenty eight other teams will have an opportunity to send a bag full of prospects to Miami in exchange for Uggla’s services and most will value him as a second basemen presents a problem. A butcher in left field is less valuable than a butcher at second base given the relative difficulty of the positions. Paying the price of acquiring a 3-win player for one that’s more likely to provide two wins on the 2011 Braves’ roster is an inefficient use of resources.
Problem two has to do with his contract. Uggla is under team control in 2011 and a free agent thereafter. He’s eligible for arbitration and will likely receive a salary of around $10 million, more than the Braves would care to spend on their left fielder. The Braves would essentially be trading for a 1-year rental at a price too high for them to stomach. Uggla would presumably be open to signing an extension, but he’s reportedly seeking a 5-year deal and the fact that he’ll want to be paid like a second basemen will only exacerbate the issue described above if said extension is agreed upon.
Problem three has to do with aging effects. Though Uggla has been in the league only five years, he’s not exactly a spring chicken. He’ll be thirty one years old in 2011 and is indisputably on the wrong side of his peak. Furthermore, he’s a player that strikes out in 26 percent of his at-bats, making him a candidate to experience a Richie Sexson-esque evaporation into worthlessness during his early-to-mid 30′s. While this is more of a concern if we’re discussing a potential extension, the possibility of Uggla losing his bat speed and, as a result, his offensive effectiveness next year can’t be ignored.
Problem four has to do with trading stars within the division. It was painful to watch the Rangers make a deep postseason run with a SS and closer the Braves originally signed. It would have been ten times as painful to watch a division rival steal Atlanta’s playoff spot on the strength of talent Atlanta developed. Refusing to ever trade with division rivals is a bad policy, but refusing to help them reload for the future is not, and not because of said pain. Making life harder for yourself in the future is a quick way to irrelevance.
If the Braves were to trade for Uggla, they’d be giving up significantly more value than they’d receive from Uggla due to market demand and the inability to take advantage of the optimal use of his defensive abilities. They’d be trading for either an expensive, 1-year rental or a player they’ll have to pay more than market rate to retain beyond 2011. They’d be getting a player possibly susceptible to rapid, precipitous decline. And they’d be helping a division rival beat them in the future. Sure, Atlanta would have a pretty cool right-handed power bat for their 2011 line-up, but the question isn’t, “is this cool?”; the question is, “is it worth it?”. The answer is “no”, and Dan Uggla would be a mistake because of it.
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That makes sense. Good point about the high potential for declining skills with Uggla.
Is the organization actually considering this? I want no part of Dan Uggla.
purely on the fact that Uggla is not an OF’er, I’d not want to take him
Let me see if I get this right.
Magglio had an option that was declined and if the Tigers offer him arb they will probably pay 12 for him (no way). So, they don’t offer him arb. He may bring 8 over 1 or 12 over 2.
Burrell had an 8 mill contract and if the Giants offer arb it is probably 6 to 8. Maybe they do (some chance). If they don’t, he will bring maybe 12 over 2 or 8 over 1 (or maybe not).
Ludwick would get 8 or so in arb, but San Diego is unlikely to offer that. If he is non tendered, he is looking at somewhere around 3 years 18 to 2 years 14 (maybe less).
So, the odds are that all 3 of those guys will be available and without giving draft picks.
And if the Marlins GIVE (as in no prospects) Uggla to us, he isn’t any better fielder in Left (and certainly not as good as Ludwick) than any of these guys and he will cost 10 million. What?
This is a silly rumor that has no basis (UNLESS Wren is or was looking for a multi player deal and, if he was, Maybin was probably a piece and the trade of Maybin to the Padres killed any Braves interest in Uggla).
Agreed Cliff. I meant to squeeze in something to the effect of “they could do just as well on the FA market for less money and no prospects” but I never got around to it.
Agreed all of above! Now how ’bout Upton from the Rays? Maybe the Braves help him grow up and tap his talent. What would he cost in dollars? Is he too much of a head case? Poison the lockeroom? Of can we take a chance that the “Braves” brand can turn him into “something” special or at least very good?
There is a rumor going around here in the New York area that the Mets will try to trade Beltran and that he would be willing to waive his no trade clause. Also he would be open to playing LF or RF. The Mets also realize that they would have to eat part of his 18 million dollar salary for next year. Here is a thought, the Braves send KK and his 7 million dollar salary to the Mets for Beltran and the mets pick up another 3 million, we also send a couple of mid-level prospects such as JJ Hover and Cabera
I’d be just as excited as the next guy to get rid of KK, but there’s no way that the Mets are going to take that kind of deal, Peric. I just can’t see that happening at all.
why is it not taken into consideration that uggla will probably be a type A free agent after 2010, therefore providing 2 first round draft picks?
also, uggla had a 5.1 WAR this year. that would have ranked him 2nd on the braves this year only behind brian mccann’s 5.3.
one complete unknown would obviously be uggla, or presumably, prado’s left field defense. it’s apparent that neither prado or uggla are stellar with the glove at 2nd (however, prado has improving with years), but would their defense be any worse than, say magglio ordonez? i obviously dont know, but i cant imagine that it would be.
so, my conclusion: 10 million dollars + top prospect other than teheran for uggla with, presumably, 2 first rounders coming back in 2011, and prado moving to left field. i’m in!
“why is it not taken into consideration that uggla will probably be a type A free agent after 2010, therefore providing 2 first round draft picks?”
should have read “after 2011″.
Nice analysis, and good point by cliff/4.
For reference, here are projected wOBA and wRC+ by BJ:
.372 136 Magglio
.362 128 Uggla
.351 120 Pat the Bat
.344 115 Ludwick
I’m not sure whether those projections are park and league specific. wRC+ is supposed to be adjusted for park and league, but it could be, for example, that BJ projected the FA in a neutral park but fangraphs plugged in factors for their team last year to get to wRC+.
At any rate, I’d rather have Uggla than Burrell (they’re pretty similar hitters, and I’ll take Uggla’s youth over any minimal defensive edge Burrell might have)–but I wouldn’t be willing to pay that much more for him.
I have an emotional reason not to sign Uggla. He went out on a date with a friend of mine. She assured him that though he was a well regarded athlete there would be no sex on the first date. After dinner they went back to her place for a night cap. Now at this point being at her place Uggla might have thought she’d go back on her word. So what does he do? As soon as she leaves the room for a moment he striped down naked and posed with his ugly stick awaiting her return. She came back to find him in all his glory and promptly threw him out. Bad Baserunning indeed. Now I know the aforementioned story has little place here unless there are any SaberMetrics that reference success rates of the Naked Man. Dan Uggla, just say no.
ryan c,
Because any team that acquired him gets the draft picks. They and the Marlins know this, which brings his price up accordingly.
Uggla has averaged around 3.8 fWAR in his career, but he’d have to play way over his head to be a 4-win LF’er. And if you move Prado to left you just decrease Prado’s value. The difference between Prado’s value as a 2B and Prado’s value as a LF has to be subtracted from Uggla’s when the Braves decide what to bid on him. They’d be bidding for a net 2-3-win player against teams that see him as a 4-win player. It’d be stupid.
Left Bench,
I have a similar story about a former Rome Brave that I’m not going to disclose, but I feel ya.
@7
I have to say… if we could ditch KK AND pick up Carlos Beltran (who would hopefully stay healthy)… I’d be ecstatic. A declining Beltran is far, far better than alot of options, in my view.
best case scenario in my opinion would be:
Trade for B.J. Upton
Sign Ryan Ludwick (if non-tendered)
Lineup:
1. Martin Prado (2b)
2. B.J. Upton (CF)
3. Jason Heyward (RF)
4. Chipper Jones (3b)
5. Ryan Ludwick (LF)
6. Brian McCann (C)
7. Alex Gonzalez (SS)
8. Freddie Freeman (1b)
9. Pitcher
I agree, getting Uggla would be a mistake, seeing how the Braves already have a 2b and a 3b. And of course, they could put him in left, but it wouldn’t be as hard to find a LF that can hit like Uggla for one year. However, I don’t know that Jones is going to have a .400 OBP next year. His Bill James projection is .401/.481, but both of those seem quite optimistic to me. But he’s under contract, and the Braves would be better suited finding a semi-cheap quality utility infielder — which is already what they seem to have in Infante. Did they exercise his option?
I feel ya CAC. I got a story about a Rome brave too.
@13
i completely disagree.
you dont know the marlins asking price and there’s also no real reason to believe that prado decreases his value as a left fielder. in a vacuum, if the braves were to have moved prado to LF last year and he put up his exact offensive and defensive numbers, he’s probably 5th overall for LFers, where he was 6th as a 2nd baseman.
prado, inserted into LF on opening day would be a top 5-6 offensive left fielder if he posted his career norms, which is really no different than his standing at 2nd. if the braves were to get a 8.5-9 WAR together from uggla and prado, how could that be considered a mistake?
@17
name one left fielder that can put up this line, that’s not a serious health risk or has a chance for a complete collapse (burrell), that the braves have a chance at getting.
32 hr 97 rbi .837 ops
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: New at CAC: Pursuing Dan Uggla would be a mistake — http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3249 [...]
Would Uggla’s value increase if there was a second move that hinged on Prado being traded?Just rampant speculation I’ve seen floating around cyber space, but what if Uggla allowed Braves to pull trigger on a trade for Rasmus centered around Prado?
Would the loss of Prado + probably 2 top pitching prospects (Not Teheran) + a few lower level prospects be worth the gain of Uggla and Rasmus. Clearly a here and now offensive gain, but curious what a more rational mind would think of the big picture of such a hypothetical.
(Although you had me opposed to the deal at the thought of Feliz and Andrus in our division. Made me throw up in my mouth a little).
Good point indeed, losing prospects to sign Uggla would be a mistake if a long term contract is not the goal, however, watching the man play, how he hustles, how he almost never misses a game, I have a hard time believing he’s slowing down. Can we anticipate the rate of decline of a player? sadly we cannot either. What I think will happen is the Braves will pass on all the “good options” due to money (which is getting sadder and sadder every year), we’ll end up signing someone like Xavier Nady for a million five hoping he’ll “regain the magic” of his one good year, and the Marlins are going to wait till mid-season to have a fire sale of all the remaining veterans to teams outside the division (see Cody Ross to the Giants after the braves had a hard-on for the guy for months). I sure hope I’m wrong!
Besides in this space, I haven’t heard anything about the Braves having interest in Uggla…and I hope that I never hear anything to that effect unless they are going to give him to us for next to nothing and he suddenly decides he doesn’t want to get paid.
@ ryan c
There is no way Prado plays just as good of defense in left field as he does at second. The positions involve completely different skill sets. That being said, selling the farm system for what would essentially be a rental player won’t work. We tried it with Tex and just ended up trading him for very little compared to what we paid for him. If it didn’t work with a player of Tex’s quality it won’t work with Uggla.
21/Scott K,
Here ya go,
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/braves-pursuit-of-a-hitter-could-heat-up-next-week.html
@25
that’s also pure speculation. prado plays outfield every winter. alfonso soriano played outfield pretty well after transition.
ryan c/19,
you dont know the marlins asking price
I know a lot about how baseball economics work, and I roughly know what the Marlins would be asking. So, yes. I do.
and there’s also no real reason to believe that prado decreases his value as a left fielder.
Uhhhhhh, yeah, yeah there is. It’s a lot harder to find a player capable of playing 2B than one capable of playing LF. Moving him to LF doesn’t help him hit more and he doesn’t move well enough to be a huge asset there, defensively. You gain nothing by moving him there and lose a ton of positional value. Yes, there is a very real reason to believe that Prado is less valuable in left. It’s just a fact.
in a vacuum, if the braves were to have moved prado to LF last year and he put up his exact offensive and defensive numbers, he’s probably 5th overall for LFers, where he was 6th as a 2nd baseman.
I don’t completely understand what you’re saying here, but if it’s what I think it is I don’t care. The average 2B posts around a .720 OPS, the average corner OF’er posts around a .775 OPS.
prado, inserted into LF on opening day would be a top 5-6 offensive left fielder if he posted his career norms, which is really no different than his standing at 2nd.
Again, yes it is.
if the braves were to get a 8.5-9 WAR together from uggla and prado, how could that be considered a mistake?
They wouldn’t.
ryan c/20,
RBI’s? OK, enough.
Micah/22,
I was waiting for someone to go there. It’s actually the only scenario I see that makes acquiring Uggla worth it.
Micah,
Rasmus would not cost Prado + 2 top pitching prospects + even more prospects. That would be 10 times worse than the Tex deal.
I don’t want us to get Uggla. We don’t need another 2B/3B for 2011 and we won’t be able to hold onto Uggla past 2011, so there’s no point (hopefully) in talking about this at all.
Bottom line:
Wren wants to build around our strength, which is pitching. He’s said he doesn’t want to trade from our strength. Not a bad strategy, but in order for that to work we have to have a very solid defensive infield. No matter how you slice it, our power is going to have to come from the outfield. If Uggla’s going to join our lineup he has to be left. I’m not advocating trading for the guy, but I am saying that trading away Prado and replacing him with Uggla would be a mistake. While Prado’s no defensive wizard, he’s good enough to be a part of our 2011 infield.
30–It’s a pretty bad strategy if you can deal from strength and still retain your strength. The Braves don’t have to make a choice between very good pitching and mediocre offense, or mediocre pitching and good offense. They actually can deal pitching for offense and still have good pitching.
Wren, for all of his virtues, continues to baffle me in terms of his inability to construct a decent outfield. There has been some bad luck, like with McLouth’s decline, but there has also been some unimaginative roster creation.
Just read from Rosenthal that Weeks would be available for a pitcher. Possible JJ move there. If he really is available how do we not make that move? Granted he plays 2b but it is a huge step forward. Also he is more affordable than Uggla.
No thanks to Uggla. If the Braves are going to shoehorn an expensive guy into left field for the sake of increased power, then they should try and sign Adam Dunn and move him there rather than trade a ton of talent to a division rival for a player they will only control for a year.
And trading a lot of talent for Uggla and then trading Prado plus even more talent for a left fielder doesn’t make sense to me either. Too expensive in terms of payroll and talent.
Weeks could probably play a passable center field, and certainly a passable corner OF.
I doubt Atlanta an get him for Jurrjens straight up, though.
I agree not for straight up. Would have to sweeten the pot. But with a front line guy like JJ being the centerpiece the Braves wouldn’t necessarily have to part with too much more. Maybe Moylan and a middle level prospect with a minor league bat or OF def. option coming back?
Weeks would be VERY affordable and play a very passable LF. I just got to think that the Braves would perfer this option and let Toronto get Uggla.
Buster Olney just tweeted the following:
some clubs “perceive the Marlins are absolutely intent on moving Uggla ASAP, and they are not asking for a high rate of return — a couple of decent guys, no A-plus prospects necessary.”
If the Braves end up not giving up a top ten prospect in their system, does it change your mind?
Isn’t Weeks a free agent after 2011? Is Jurrjens value that low that 3 years of his control isn’t enough for 1 year of Weeks?
#37
No I don’t think his value is that low. I just think the Brewers wold be asking for more if they could. So it might be an opportunity to dump Moylan and get the def. OF we need.
Of course I am not sure what the Brewers may have in the minors (or on their roster) that might fit the bill of the OF bench guy.
Just spitballing.
NEBravesfan33 – That’s one of the problems I have with the JJ trade theory. Coming off a injury-plagued year in which he struggled, unless this year was a sign of things to come, aren’t the Braves inevitably selling low by trading him now?
My other concern being I’m not completely sold on a rotation of Hudson, Lowe, Hanson, Minor and Beachy for next season given Huddy likely will have a slight decline from last year, Lowe has been inconsistent and hasn’t even averaged 6 IP/start, and Beachy and Minor’s lack of experience. Plus, who fills in if Beachy or Minor struggles, or if someone gets hurt?
yes, peter. my basis of argument was rbi’s….give me a break. my reason for the “simple stats” is that the braves havent had a 30/100 rbi man for quite some time and a rh hitting guy fitting that description would be great.
look at WAR this year and tell me where prado, if he’d been a left fielder, would have ranked. it’s about 5th or 6th which is no different than where he ranks as a 2nd baseman. an average 2nd baseman may have a lower ops than an average left fielder, but the top 5-6 2nd basemen outproduced the top 5-6 left fielders this year.
#6 WAR for LF: Raul Ibanez
#6 WAR for 2b: Martin Prado
who do you think had a better season? martin, if playing left field, would have been ranked ahead of ibanez.
First time commenting, long-time reader here,——(g)
I think B.J. Upton could be a worthwhile risk for ATL but I just don’t see ATL as that suitable of trading partners. Both teams need some power in 2011. Both are deep with young starting pitch depth/prospects (Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Medlen, Hellickson, Davis, McGee, etc.) Both will need to fill holes in the bullpen with the losses of Wagner, Soriano, et al. Plenty of middle-infielders/utility guys (Prado, Infante, Bartlett, Brignac, Rodriguez, Zobrist). This is assuming Friedman and company are seriously thinking of dealing Upton away. Given Crawford’s departure and the unknown re Desmond Jennings and Upton’s value not being the highest, and his contract/control—-he is likely more valuable to TB than he would be to other teams considerign what they’d have to give up to assume his risk despite his potential.
Having said that—-I think he’d be a good fit in ATL. At worst, he’d play good defense in CF, add some speed to the lineup, and continue to mash lefties in a LH-heavy lineup at the top of the order. Career .269/.375/.435 vs LHP and was even better in 2010 vs a limited sample (.278/.381/.538).
And you cannot disregard the potential for him to realize his 2007/late-2008 form where he looked like he was gonna become an elite player, even hitting with power.
Again though, since we wouldn’t have any MLB/near MLB-ready OF/INF prospects to send in return (other than *Freeman*–), or any they’d want, this doesn’t make that much sense for TB, assuming they didn’t use our pieces or others to make another deal.
I’m totally against getting Uggla though—-unless as mentioned was one step in the process of getting a bigger target. Still, I don’t like the idea of signing him to a LT deal.
ryan c,
You might want to tread a little softer. Peter is making objective (so yes, factual) statements that you are failing to comprehend.
The positional adjustment (Fangraphs WAR) is greater for second basemen than for left fielders. So you cannot directly compare the two positions. If Prado had actually played left field everyday last season, his WAR would be roughly a full win less. As Peter said, LFs with an .800 OPS are far easier to come by than a 2B with an .800 OPS (and other things that are measured in WAR, but I hope the point is taken). Therefore, they are valued differently. What makes Prado so valuable, is that he puts up numbers a good deal better than an average LF at the 2B position. He loses a lot of that value if he is moved.
It just so happened that in 2010, the NL had a shit show of LFs and an elite top 6 2Bs. It doesn’t change the fact that a replacement level LF is calculated to produce more than a replacement level 2B.
you guys are right. i still would like to see uggla a brave no matter if that means prado or him in left field.
Just for the sake of straight comparisons
Soriano was a LFer and had a .353wOBA
Prado a 2nd/3rd had a .352 wOBA
With extremely similar wOBA Soriano is a full win lower at 2.9 to Prado 3.9. The defensive component favors Soriano as well to the extent of almost a full win (Whether ot not you believe it’s correct is different).
But despite being nearly a full win superior defensively an identical offensive, Soriano is a less valuable player than Prado simply because of his position.
Uggla put up about 5w last year and would drop to around 4 assuming he’s even a -10 defender and is able to replicate last years offensive numbers. I do not doubt that Uggla would offensively be superior to other Brave LF options, but is having a 4win player for one year worth the upgrade cost of prospects over having a 2.5-3win player without giving up prospects?
Now I’m really starting to wonder about the validity of these rumors. The Brewers obviously have to move Prince Fielder this offseason (I think it’s fair to assume they’d like more than just two draft picks as compensation for losing him), yet there are rumors that they’re shopping both Braun AND Weaks? That doesn’t pass the smell test to me.
Kawikami sucks
dave/45,
Melvin recently said he’s trying to keep Prince around. If he moves Braun and/or Weeks in order to keep Prince, well that’ll set the franchise back half a decade. I don’t get it, either.
So Justin Upton is supposedly available. **salivation**
An outfield with Upton and Heyward would be incredible, I don’t know if he’s really available though, I imagine they’d have to be really blown away before they’d do it
I really hope this week isn’t a disappointment as it seems there are multiple GMs (Towers in Arizona, Melvin in Milwaukee, and Hill in Florida) willing to trade important pieces and who are looking for bullpen and rotation help. We certainly have plenty of those pieces.
I’m cautiously optimistic and would be willing to trade Teheran+Beachy+Dunn for Justin Upton. Or is that not enough?
It’s not enough. Upton’s a ~$45-$55 million asset. Teheran’s a $22 million asset and the other two pitchers you mentioned are worth about $8 million.