Pursuing Dan Uggla would be a mistake
November 15, 2010 at 5:41 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Constructing a roster or part thereof with the sole intention of beating a single team is a foolish endeavor. Letting the emotions associated with a player hitting twenty three home runs against your team over the past five years effect your judgment related to roster decisions is equally foolish. The fact that Dan Uggla is perceived as a ‘Braves killer’ for not entirely rational reasons should not influence the Braves’ decision to pursue him or pass.
Granted, his career .900 OPS against the Braves over 89 games isn’t the only reason fans would like to see him hitting in the middle of Atlanta’s order. The overall career .263/.349/.488 line he’s amassed while playing his home games in a place that depresses offense (career 117 OPS+) or the fact that he’s averaged 31 homers a year or his durability (he’s missed at most 16 games in a single season over his five-year career while averaging 154 a year) are objective and rational reasons to think of Uggla as the solution to the Braves’ biggest problem–the lack of power, specifically right-handed. While having Uggla bat 5th for the 2011 Braves is undeniably a better option than anyone currently in the organization, failing to evaluate further would be ignoring several significant problems and might result in an avoidable mistake.
Problem one has to do with his position. Dan Uggla is a second baseman. The Braves already have a second baseman in Martin Prado, a second basemen who has been nearly as good of a hitter (career 115 OPS+) and a decidedly better fielder than Uggla. Moving the former to make room for the latter–who will cost somewhere between $5 and $8 million more in addition to the prospects shipped out to obtain him–would not improve the team enough to justify the cost if at all. Uggla also played 3B in the minors. The Braves already have a 3rd baseman in Chipper Jones, a third baseman who has been a better hitter than Uggla even over his most recent “down years” (OBP-heavy 118 OPS+ versus Uggla’s 121). Whether or not Uggla is a better defensive 3rd basemen than Chipper is a matter up for debate, but the fact that Chipper Jones is owed $14 million in 2011 and can’t be moved without his permission* makes the point moot; Dan Uggla will not be Atlanta’s 3rd basemen in 2011.
*Hoping Chipper changes his mind about retirement or re-injures himself so Uggla can be pursued is not productive. Furthermore, Chipper retiring or re-injuring himself would in no way be a positive thing for the 2011 Braves, regardless of the implications it may have related to Uggla. Finding a player to replace Chipper’s .400 on base average would be virtually impossible, with or without the $14 million he’s owed in 2011.
The only position Uggla could conceivably play for the 2011 Braves is left field, given it’s one of two places they don’t have a set-in-stone player installed and his immobility prohibits him from playing center field. Speaking of which, Uggla doesn’t move well enough to play an average LF, and seeing as he’s played all of twenty professional games at the position you can safely wager he is capable of providing next-to-zero defensive value as an outfielder.
It may be true that most of the other options aren’t capable of providing any more defensive value in left than Uggla is, but the fact that twenty eight other teams will have an opportunity to send a bag full of prospects to Miami in exchange for Uggla’s services and most will value him as a second basemen presents a problem. A butcher in left field is less valuable than a butcher at second base given the relative difficulty of the positions. Paying the price of acquiring a 3-win player for one that’s more likely to provide two wins on the 2011 Braves’ roster is an inefficient use of resources.
Problem two has to do with his contract. Uggla is under team control in 2011 and a free agent thereafter. He’s eligible for arbitration and will likely receive a salary of around $10 million, more than the Braves would care to spend on their left fielder. The Braves would essentially be trading for a 1-year rental at a price too high for them to stomach. Uggla would presumably be open to signing an extension, but he’s reportedly seeking a 5-year deal and the fact that he’ll want to be paid like a second basemen will only exacerbate the issue described above if said extension is agreed upon.
Problem three has to do with aging effects. Though Uggla has been in the league only five years, he’s not exactly a spring chicken. He’ll be thirty one years old in 2011 and is indisputably on the wrong side of his peak. Furthermore, he’s a player that strikes out in 26 percent of his at-bats, making him a candidate to experience a Richie Sexson-esque evaporation into worthlessness during his early-to-mid 30′s. While this is more of a concern if we’re discussing a potential extension, the possibility of Uggla losing his bat speed and, as a result, his offensive effectiveness next year can’t be ignored.
Problem four has to do with trading stars within the division. It was painful to watch the Rangers make a deep postseason run with a SS and closer the Braves originally signed. It would have been ten times as painful to watch a division rival steal Atlanta’s playoff spot on the strength of talent Atlanta developed. Refusing to ever trade with division rivals is a bad policy, but refusing to help them reload for the future is not, and not because of said pain. Making life harder for yourself in the future is a quick way to irrelevance.
If the Braves were to trade for Uggla, they’d be giving up significantly more value than they’d receive from Uggla due to market demand and the inability to take advantage of the optimal use of his defensive abilities. They’d be trading for either an expensive, 1-year rental or a player they’ll have to pay more than market rate to retain beyond 2011. They’d be getting a player possibly susceptible to rapid, precipitous decline. And they’d be helping a division rival beat them in the future. Sure, Atlanta would have a pretty cool right-handed power bat for their 2011 line-up, but the question isn’t, “is this cool?”; the question is, “is it worth it?”. The answer is “no”, and Dan Uggla would be a mistake because of it.
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I love the idea of Justin Upton! He would be an ideal fit for the Braves. Plus he’s signed through 2015!
The only thing that scares me is we would have to deal with Kevin Towers. He was a pain to work with when he was with San Diego. But Beachy/Minor and Vizcaino/Delgado should be a nice start to get him in a Braves uniform!
Well Peter id Justin Upton REALLY is available then that HAS to be the guy we get right? I mean all the other pieces out there are “nice” (besides Braun if he is available) but Upton has to be the gem doesn’t he?
J.Upton is probably the one guy that I would truly “break the bank” for. Anyone got an idea of how much it would take to snatch him? I will say to 51/Bobbito…it’s gonna take a lot more than that. I would figure Teheran would have to be in this deal.
Stick either him or J-Hey in CF and that is one hell of an outfield. 5 years of that together and then you probably get to keep 1 of them (Heyward). But still, 5 years of that combo…you better get at LEAST 1 WS from that.
Like everyone else I love the idea of a Braun or an Justin Upton, but am not crazy about the fact that we would likely be giving up four top 15 pitching prospects, maybe even top five to get either of them. I understand why it’s necessary, but you’ll excuse me for having Adam Wainwright/ Neftali Feliz nightmares.
If we could have signed Tex to an extension it probably would have been worth it though.
The difference between Upton and Braun is that Upton has ++ defense to go along with his offensive skills…hence the reason I would literally break a bank to get him.
I’d love to see justin upton roaming around center field at the Ted. Thats a lot of power potential in the outfield with Upton Heyward Mclouth. Truly hoping Nate gets it back because he was a dynamic player in Pittsburgh
Kevin Towers is torturing me with procrastination while I am supposed to be working.
Eric/52,
Yes. Post coming later on the subject.
GoBravos/56,
I imagine Upton would play left with Heyward in right.
Todd/57,
You and me both, man. I probably lost an hour of sleep last night just thinking about how awesome it would be to have Justin Upton on the team.
I figured Upton and Heyward would be competing with each other in the coming years for MVP awards, sure would be nice if they were competing on the same team!!!!!! I’ve now mentally checked out from work as I am thinking about having arguably the 2 most talented outfielders in the league together.
Capitol Avenue Club/58,
Why would we stick Upton’s very good defense in LF and leave McLouth’s remarkably mediocre defense in CF? The reports I’ve heard coming from the team is that the Braves would love to get someone whose defense is good enough that we could move McLouth to LF. Of course, that may be filtered through the sportswriters reporting that information.
I can just see the title of your next post CAC: “Pursuing Justin Upton would be a winner”
Wow, all this Justin Upton talk has me drooling. I’d rather have him over Braun (although its a close race) and if there is any truth to him being anywhere near available we have GOT to find a way to make that happen. Those are the only two players I wouldn’t mind selling quite a bit of the farm to acquire (obviously giving up more for Upton).
This is the very type of out of nowhere trade I was referring to in the original Left Fielder post. Something that sounded impossible weeks ago, but if could somehow happen would have me running through the streets with tears of joy streaming down my face.
Gammons says the upton talk is “due Diligence” only. Here’s hoping it turns into something more…
Rosenthal is reporting the Braves and Marlins are discussing Infante and Dunn for Uggla: http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/4655446954614784
Can this possibly be true?
Todd/61,
The title of the post (which is almost done) is:
“Dr. Upton or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Blockbuster”
I am sensing a plan.
Move Jurrjens (current pitching), Teheran (high ceiling fairly close pitching), Dunn (good ML lefty reliever), and a prospect or two for Upton (is that close on cac’s value? I think you overstate the excess value in the “out years” because if Upton’s recent injury makes him an 800 ops guy, there is no excess value in 14 and 15). Increases payroll a hair over what it would be with Jurrjens for 2010. Rises in the future on Uptons contract are offset by no McLouth, no Kawakami.
Keep Kawakami (we are going to have to eat 4 or more anyway, so that only costs 2 to 3). He is #5 or #6 starter. OR, Ssign Millwood to a 2 mill incentive laden one year deal. Minor is #4. Beachy #5 or #6. Delgado is # 7. Medlen is long / set up relief in August if he is back by then. Medlen replaces Kawakami starting in 2012 or goes to the late inning bullpen role.
Take a flier on Manny. Boras said a “contract similar to Vlad”. That was 1.5 with easy incentives to 6 or so, right?
Go Heyward in center, Upton in right, Manny in left. Use McLouth as 4th outfielder and defensive replacement for Manny (moving Heyward or Upton to left) and occasional starter against righties to rest Manny (20 games) and Upton (10 games). If Manny acts like a piece of fecal matter, cut him. Then use Matt Young as 4th outfielder.
Then, next year, if Schaffer gets it together, he takes center, Heyward goes to right, Upton goes to left. If Schaffer doesn’t get it together in 2011, he probably never will. So, we go get a centerfielder at the end of next season.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/braves-close-to-nearing-deal-for-dan-uggla.html
It sounds like a good deal for the braves a first glance.
The Upton post won’t get finished today because of this Uggla deal.
How many people on here really think Uggla can (1) out hit Magglio Ordonez and (2) out field magglio in left?
How many people think (3) Uggla’s arb salary will be less than what Magglio signs for (or that Magglio gets two years in a contract for more than Uggla’s one arb year)?
If yaou don’t answer yes to all 3 of those, then Uggla is a bad deal UNLESS you make it up in the picks.
I believe the supplemental pick back next year is maybe close to Dunn’s value. Dunn has at least 2 ML minimum years and then either 3 or 4 arb years. The late first round / early second round pick is a big risk of being a 2nd rounder. So MAYBE that is worth the one year of Infante that we have under contract.
That deal must be based on Uggla playing 2nd, Prado playing left for one year (or Prado being traded which I am very much against). I don’t get it.
Infante and Dunn for Uggla is a very good move. That’s not a lot to give up for him.
It’s really not that bad considering that Infante would never have started, and Dunn was one of our 3 lefty relievers. If Prado is in left, then he will have to be Chipper’s backup which means he most likely won’t be traded. I was pretty nervous about that.
Of course this gives us some seriously suspect defense at 2B and 3B.
even if we get Uggla, I still can’t see us ruling out Upton. With salary and not giving up anything for Uggla we would use for Upton it should still be on table in my mind. But I fear Wren will think he is done.
It will be interesting to see what they end up doing with Prado, like making him an interesting utility guy or trading him.
The price they paid is not all that substantial considering what they will probably get in return if he leaves and they get draft picks. I am curious to know if they took Uggla in order to hedge their bets in case Chipper isn’t ready or Freeman is truly awful and they have an easier time filling their gaps.
New thread.