Transaction Analysis: Dan Uggla
November 16, 2010 at 5:59 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Acquired 2B Dan Uggla for 2B Omar Infante and LHP Michael Dunn.
Forget what I said about acquiring Uggla yesterday. Quite simply this trade is highway robbery.
The Braves get Dan Uggla, a 4-win 2B, for a utility player and a 26-year old lefty reliever with a live arm and command issues–one that might develop into a viable 8th inning option. Uggla will make about $10 million in arbitration, Infante makes $2.5 million in 2011.
It seems like Uggla will play 2B for the Braves in 2011 with Prado in LF (or at 3B if Chipper can’t make it back, which I don’t think is happening). Their infield defense will take a hit, but their offense will be a lot better.
The Braves won’t miss Omar Infante, he’s a utility player. The Braves won’t miss Michael Dunn, they already have two better, MLB-ready, left-handed relievers in Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty with Lee Hyde half a year away.
The Braves will love having Uggla hitting in the middle of their line-up. They will score a lot more runs with Uggla than they would’ve without him. The Marlins will regret making this move.
Braves fans: rejoice. This trade is a steal.
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Err.. *Mike Stanton.
I would be fine with the Braves trading Jeff Porter to the Marlins for Mike Stanton or Mike Stanford.
so, if mark bowman was correct and the braves had approx. 15 million dollars to play with after estimated arbitration raises, then there’s probably about 7 million left (and hopefully 10 after the braves find a japan team for kawakami). so, here’s my best guess on locks for the roster:
1. brian mccann 2. freddie freeman 3. alex gonzalez 4. chipper jones 5. dan uggla 6. martin prado 7. nate mclouth 8. jason heyward 9. joe mather 10. brooks conrad 11. david ross 12. tim hudson 13. derek lowe 14. tommy hanson 15. jair jurrjens 16. brandon beachy 17. mike minor 18. eric o’flaherty 19. jonny venters 20. craig kimbrel 21. peter moylan
so, that leaves us with 4 roster spots and some change to spend. what we’ll need:
1. backup ss 2. rh reliever 3. outfielder 4. reliever
in-house solutions:
1. diory hernandez: a non-solution if you ask me. he does nothing well.
2. barbaro canizares: with the lineup being lefty heavy, i’d love to see the big guy get a shot off the bench.
3. matty young: can play adequate OF defense and has become a much better baserunner
4. scott proctor: had some good years with NY but also looks like a non-solution (and the most puzzling move of the year by wren).
5. stephen marek: really had a breakout season as a reliever this year increasing his k/9 and decreasing his bb/9. he was lights out for mississippi and gwinnett for 63.1 innings.
6. cristhian martinez: not a real eye opener here, but put up good numbers last year. kind of a repetitive choice with beachy probably already a lock one way or another.
free agent solutions
1. clint barmes: has never gotten on base at a great clip and has atrocious home/road splits, but could be a decent backup for alex.
2. andruw jones: a slimmer andruw would be an ideal candidate to platoon with nate in CF. he didnt play much center field last year on account of rios, but i’m sure he can still handle it.
3. edgar renteria: edgar’s stock probably rose a bit after the world series, but he could still probably be had for 2-3 million.
Love the trade! I have wanted Uggla for the past two years but not many people seemingly saw him the way I did. Uggla has average defensive skills but he mashes at the plate and he said he really put it all together this past year with a decent average, power, and play. This was what we have needed for the past few years, someone who can hit for power and has the numbers to prove it. Uggla has it. It is always hard to see someone like Infante go but this is great for us Braves fans!!!
So alomost all agree this is a steal. The dark lining in this cloud besides defense is that he wanted 5 years and $71million from the Marlins. I hope the Braves can extend him for something closer to 4 years for $48, which may be possible because I don’t see him him hitting 30 home runs again playing half his games at “the Ted”.
To much to soon, everything is done there wont be any braves news from now til march sho is gone make for a long boring winter. Good trade though do it some more Frank; get one of them Upton Boys.
Great deal for a great player, don’t like saying “I told you so”, but screw it, TOLD YOU SO… looking forward to the 2011 season.
Who did you tell what?
55 AtLol:
The Marlins offered him 4 years, $48 million, and he declined. Sources say he wants a fifth year guaranteed, so the Braves, if they extend him, will probably go around 5 years, $70 million. Maybe have progressive increases as the years go on, as Chipper comes off the books in a couple of years.
Sure there are negatives to almost every trade (see everything on the farm for Texeria rental) but this is overwhelmingly a good trade, just look at all the positive posts. Braves and their fans are starved for a legitimate outfielder with power and have been for years. Uggla is no outfielder but he definitely has the power. Now are we still going to pursue that outfielder or do we feel good enough sending Prado to LF with Heyward in RF and sub par Nate in CF? IMO, Nate needs to be the 4th and we need a CF. Shoot me if you want but I had rather see Francouer in the outfield than Nate. At least Jeff has a gun and is better at the plate and is considerably cheaper.
Would a Prado + Jurrjens + Beachy package be enough to land Justin Upton? I’d still like to see a legit OF playing in left. I know this deal would leave the middle infield quite thin after Gonzalez and Uggla depart after 2011, but we’re talking about grabbing a guy like Justin Upton.
I certainly wouldn’t want to see Jeff on the field with a gun. That presents a significant security risk to the other players.
Grace13– no to Francouer, but another fallen former Brave might be a good option– Andruw Jones. Andruw put up a 119 OPS+ vs Jeff’s 85 last year, and he made just 500,000 vs Jeff’s 5 million. Andruw’s an affordable righty bat that the Braves could platoon with McClouth for a big power upgrade (19 hr last year)– now that they have spent most of their money on Uggla he looks like a good option to me for the outfield.
60-They aren’t going to deal Prado.
I like this deal for this price, if they can get him to sign long term for what the Marlins offered it might be a decent idea also. Especially because Prado had a 60% chance of being the everyday third baseman in 2012.
If uggla wanted 5/71 from the fish, why would he take 4/48 from the braves? He wouldn’t. The only hope of retaining him is to sign him to a backloaded deal where the “big” money kicks in once Lowe and chipper are off the books.
Giving a 31-year old who strikes out in 26% of his AB’s a 4+ year deal seems like a great way to add an awful contract to the books.
61 – No.
Justin Upton is a young star and I would think they’d want one in return.
I don’t see the Braves signing Uggla to a long term deal unless they get a good price, or he does absolutely redunkulous this year and convinces them otherwise.
I do think they are more likely to do the game they have done for years where they get some form of useful commodity, offer arbitration and take the draft picks. It has bitten them in the ass a couple times, but it is definitely more in line with what they do.
I still hope the get an OF who can potentially be a starer in case Chipper isn’t back on time, suffers a set back or Freeman completely tanks.
I am torn on Prado because he’s a great hitter and can play around the field to help with injuries and what not, but I also kind of want him to get traded because he has value and without a position I’m not sure how much higher it could be than now. Also it kind of sucks for him always be moving around.
CAC: agreed. It is worth discussing whether or not the braves should even try to keep uggla….
My dream scenario right now has the Yankees panicking after missing out on Lee and signing Crawford, then trading Gardner to us for Jurrjens straight up. Gardner is the best defensive OF in the game right now, he makes contact on >90% of his swings, he saw the most pitches per AB in the AL last year, and his OBP last year was .383. He’s also from Georgia. Here’s my fantasy lineup:
Gardner CF
Prado LF
Heyward RF
Uggla 2B
McCann C
Jones 3B
Freeman 1B
Gonzalez SS
That is a scary scary lineup. Balanced too.
I think one more blockbuster deal to bolster our outfield would put us over the hump as possible favorites to win the NL pennant. What type of blockbuster deal, you ask? Here are a few scenarios I believe would suffice; any one of these would do:
Option 1: Jurrjens, Vizcaino, C. Martinez & Schafer & cash to Arizona for Justin Upton.
Option 2: Jurrjens, Matt Diaz, Conrad, Schafer & Delgado to L.A. Dodgers for Matt Kemp.
Option 3: Jurrjens, Beachy, Moylan & Schafer to Tampa Bay for B.J. Upton & Andy Sonnanstine.
Option 4: Prado, Jurrjens, Beachy, Vizcaino & Matt Diaz to Milwaukee for Ryan Braun & Carlos Villanueva.
I think any of these options would give us an elite outfield and allow us to overtake the Phillies as the NL’s most feared offensive powerhouse. Furthermore, I think all options are fair trades, financially balanced/feasible, we would not lose any somewhat easily replaceable assets, we would retain at least 4 more-than-capable starting pitchers which would be enough with this fantasy offense, and we would retain the majority of our top pitching prospects, including Teheran and hopefully one of either Delgado/Vizcaino. Just speculating. Thoughts?
Any feedback, comments, or opinions on these possible trade scenarios?
This is a can’t pass up deal for this year. I am not a huge fan of 1 year rentals, but when rent is this low, you have to move in fast before someone else takes it, especially when it is exactly what you need. Worry about next year after the deal is done and it’s your problem to worry about. Personally, though, I would maybe consider 4/48. I would run from 5/71. But a good year makes him a definite to turn down arb and two high picks sounds nice.
Todd, a clarification from the other thread. I meant Prado + 2 top pitchers plus some more minor pieces for BOTH Uggla and Rasmus thinking 1 of those pitchers would be needed for Uggla and the other + Prado for Rasmus…Clearly, though, I was overvaluing at least one of those players. Who knows. Maybe I’m overvaluing Rasmus as well and we could pick him up for Kawakami, McLouth, and Porter.
Continued from 70-
Maybe throw in a Matt Lipka and/or Carlos Perez from the ATL prospect pool to sweeten the deal? With such a deep farm system in the Braves organization, I think for either of the Upton brothers, Kemp, or Braun it would be worth it!!!
back loading the deal would be as smart in 4-5 years as everyone says the Chipper extension is now.
Does everyone honestly think that Uggla will be worth his contract in 4-5 years? If we front load the contract, we might be able to trade his upside after 3 years and the contract comes off the books anyway.
Don’t hamstring us.
65-I beg to differ I think he will eventually have to settle for around 48 over 4 or less. Unless he wants to end up in the situation Adam Dunn is in now/was two years ago.
I think it would be stupid to give him that much. I can’t stress this enough: he’s 31 years old and has the type of game that often rapidly deteriorates in the player’s mid-30′s. He’s Richie Sexson waiting to happen.
Frank Wren,
Please don’t ruin the great vibe going on in Atlanta right now by signing Uggla to an extension. And feel free to trade the farm for Justin Upton.
Thanks
“# Capitol Avenue Club Says:
November 16th, 2010 at 11:56 PM
Giving a 31-year old who strikes out in 26% of his AB’s a 4+ year deal seems like a great way to add an awful contract to the books.”
Exactly. Frank Wren made a great trade, acquiring what the Braves most needed, a power hitting right handed middle of the order bat, for a pair of good but replaceable role players.
But let’s not lock ourselves into a long term deal just yet. First let’s actually see how he plays in Atlanta. Maybe he will be great. Or maybe the pressure of a pennant race and playing in front of actual fans will get to him. We’ve acquired players before that didn’t live up to their expectations (Lofton?).
Arizona would Start with Teheran and Jurrjens and go from there. Actually, they’d probably start with Hanson and Teheran. Ain’t gonna happen–give the dream up.
As for extending Uggla, it’d be madness to sign him to a five-year extension. That would almost completely mitigate the benefits of the trade. I love Uggla as a one-year rental; hate the idea of having him play here into his mid-to-late 30s.
I could not be happier. They got one of the best hitting second baseman in baseball without giving up a single prospect. This will go on Wren’s highlight reel.
I have no idea what the Marlins are doing. They said they were going for high on-base % guys. Have they ever seen Infante’s walk rate?
RE: #55 ATLol
The Marlins park is a much worse power-hitter’s park than The Ted. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his power numbers go UP this year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
People are laughing at the Marlins, but what choice did they have? Once Uggla turned down the extension, everyone knew they had to trade him so they had no leverage. They could have waited, I guess, but we don’t know what other deals they were being offered.
But the pitchers better not have too many ground balls hit to second base!
Again, why are people overlooking Brett Gardner? I’d much rather have him than Kemp or BJ Upton, and in all honesty it’s probably a tossup between him and Justin Upton. Braun is obviously better but we’d have to give up half the farm system for him.
Seriously, I bet the Yankees would take Jurrjens plus McLouth for Gardner. Fingers crossed they sign Crawford or Werth.
78/Adam…stop it.
81/Marc,
They had the choice of taking 2 draft picks after 2011, and they most certainly had a choice of getting better return than what they got.
72/Micah
Yeah that makes more sense now.
What is all of this talk about Justin Upton? Are the DBacks listening to offers for him or something? I would also hate to see us trade JJ. I’ve got some serious man love for him, but I suppose we do have quite a number of good starting pitchers
Marc Schneider/82,
Well, I think the draft picks alone are worth more than Infante/Dunn. Some people are saying they can’t afford to keep Uggla in 2011, but a) they were trying to sign him long-term and b) if they can afford to guarantee Buck and Infante $8.5 million they can afford to keep Uggla around.
They probably could have gotten something worth more than 2 draft picks for Uggla, but I don’t think they did, here.
Ben S./83,
Because he’s neither not known to be available nor a logical candidate to be moved.
Greg/86,
Yeah, Upton is available. I recommend checking MLB Trade Rumors (Braves-specific rumors) regularly, BTW.
This somehow makes that Len Barker pill a little bit easier to swallow. Let’s go Bravos!
53/ryan c
Conrad, Moylan, Beachy, and Minor are not locks for the roster. The team has yet to tender a contract to Moylan so while it’s likely he’ll return it isn’t guaranteed yet. Conrad will only make the cut if we don’t re-sign Hinske or find a better LH pinch hitter. Minor and Beachy will battle for the 5th rotation spot in Spring Training, so unless we sign someone else one of them will likely make the team with the other getting innings at AAA. We may choose to use the odd one out as the long man, but that’s not a lock.
What we need are a veteran RH RP, a defensive whiz OF, and a LH pinch hitter. Hernandez is fine as the backup SS if we can fill the other needs. Upgrading him would be gravy.
83/Ben S
No way the Yankees move him. He fits them perfectly–high OBP, good defense in spacious CF, takes tons of pitches. And with all of the huge contracts there they need at least SOME wage slaves.
Yeah, the Yankees aren’t idiots. They won’t trade Gardner. Though if they did for some reason, I’d be all over it.
Now, obviously we’re probably set, but I really think going after BJ Upton is the move to make.
Justin Upton looks like he’ll cost too much, but his brother can play great CF, has power and speed and is at the bottom of his value.
Who else wishes Jurrjens last two years had been the other way around? His perceived value would be way higher coming off an injury plagued year to rebounded to a sub 3.00 ERA. I think trading him now gives us low value and so we probably shouldn’t do it.
In a strange way of thinking, can this be trade be an extension of the Vanzquez to Yankees trade? For all those that bashed that trade we now have Uggla because we had Dunn to move AND we have one of the best young arms in the minors? Am I reading too much into it because I was bitter over all the haters of that trade? (I liked that trade btw)
The Yankees might move Gardner if they picked up Crawford or Werth. Otherwise that’s a no go, especially if they sign Lee.
Also on the BJ or Justin Upton thing. Of course it would be nice to have Justin, and BJ would be acceptable because of yesterday’s trade, but I wonder if they wont make that trade because of BJ’s personality. He is the same guy that basically quit a few times this past year and fought with Longoria in the dugout in the middle of a game. I wonder if they would make the move knowing all that with mentality the Braves have now with their clubhouse. Remember they moved Escobar because he was a “cancer”.
Peter,
Do you have any insight on Saito? He is a type “A” free agent.
I don’t see a lot of teams willing to surrender those draft picks for him.
Could the braves get him at a discount?
Also, I read on mlbtraderumors that “An exec speculated that Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done” for the Marlins to get Justin Upton. Seriously? That’s all this guy thinks it will take?
I don’t know if the Braves can offer him arbitration and collect picks or not since they released him at the end of the season per a stipulation in his contract. I’ll ask some people that might know.
The Uggla deal was undoubtedly something pushed by Freddi as well. Uggla is a tough guy and well liked by most ppl not named Hanley. Great move and a steal.
Now that Uggla is ours, its the emotional reasons that now rise to the top for me personally. Not only do we no longer have to face his bat, but soon more than a few of Buckhead’s best talent are due for a visit from the Naked Man and his Uggla stick! Thank you professionally athletics for providing putrid loathing for a man to be whisked away the moment he dons the local flag. Three cheers to the former Son of a Bitch who is now instantly my favorite player.