What Now?
November 18, 2010 at 8:00 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Acquiring Dan Uggla probably represents the last significant move the Braves make this winter, depending on the health of Chipper Jones and your definition of “significant”. David O’Brien says: “Having already made their big move in a trade for Dan Uggla, Wren and his assistants look to strengthen the depth of the bullpen and the bench.” Makes perfect sense to me. They’ve got their line-up and rotation set.
Acquiring Dan Uggla did open up two holes. One in the bullpen and one on the bench. They’ll need to find a replacement for Omar Infante, and I suspect they’ll look to spend a bit of coin on it rather than handing the spot to Brooks Conrad, Diory Hernandez, or Brandon Hicks. They were already in need of a pinch-hitter and 4th OF’er whose value is tied to his glove and the acquisition of Dan Uggla doesn’t change that. With Dunn gone they’re down to 5 relievers (Kimbrel, Venters, Proctor, O’Flaherty, Marek) plus the possibility of a Peter Moylan return. The proposition of Moylan returning isn’t something I’m thrilled about, but given the financial ramifications of the Uggla move I don’t know that they could do any better in the free agent market. The 7th bullpen spot seems like it’ll either be an external option or an undesirable right-hander in the organization (Christhian Martinez, Luis Valdez, etc), with Lee Hyde being a long shot. I imagine they’d like to fill that 7th spot with a 3rd lefty, but they probably won’t be looking to spend much more than the league minimum on it, so look for them to target 6-year free agent lefthanders that are capable of matching up with left-handed hitters in MLB. They could also look to acquire one in the Rule V draft, on waivers (like they acquired Eric O’Flaherty), or among the group of non-tenders. If they can’t find one, rolling with 2 lefties and 5 righties won’t be the worst thing in the world.
What the roster currently looks like:
Assuming the Braves save $3 million by trading Kenshin Kawakami and the payroll is around $88 million, the Braves will have about $7.5 million to acquire the aforementioned five role players. My guess is the 3rd lefty will cost only league minimum, giving them ~$7 million for 4 pieces. I look for about $1.5 million of that to be allocated to a pinch-hitter (preferably Eric Hinske) and $1 million for a 4th OF’er. If they could then get a guy like Cristian Guzman for $1.5 million or so, they’d have $3 million to grab a reliever. Peter Moylan wouldn’t cost that much, but saving for a potential mid-season deal isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Again, I’d prefer a reliever who hasn’t walked 4.7 batters per nine innings over the past two years, but if he’ll have to do I’m sure the Braves will be fine.
Most importantly they’ve built a good* and balanced line-up with Prado, Heyward, Chipper, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Gonzalez, and McLouth and they didn’t have to trade a starting pitcher or a single prospect to get it. The proposition of opening the season with Nate McLouth as the starting center fielder is unappealing, but they can afford to find out if McLouth is in store for a bounce-back year or not. If he is, great. He’s been an above-average player before and he’s in the midst of his theoretical prime, so he might end up being an above-average player again in 2011. If not, the line-up should be good enough for them to be able to soldier on without getting anything from him for awhile. Since they didn’t trade any prospects this winter they’ll have ammunition to address the situation mid-season.
*Seriously, no hyperbole, that line-up is very, very good.
Frank Wren has generally excelled at building a strong bullpen and bench and this off season should be no different. With a decent defense and a well above-average offense and starting staff, Braves fans have to like the way the roster is shaping up and in turn the team’s chances in 2011. It looks like for the first time in awhile they’ll be fielding an opening day roster capable of challenging the Phillies for the division title. Keep an eye on how the organization attempts to strengthen the bench and bullpen, but with the major pieces in place and a track record for finding useful role players, there’s not a whole lot to fret over anymore. The 2011 Braves will be very good.
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The thought of adding Christian Guzman is really interesting to me. A few years ago when he hovered around the Mendoza like with the Nats, I was shocked. I’ve always seen him as a solid player and he could be a huge piece for us off the bench.
I agree that the line up is now very solid assuming Freeman can have a Heyward type year. I think he can if he can stay healthy. The OBP won’t be there, but I think he can put up those type of power, average, and RBI numbers with the types of horses he has in front of him.
Another thing it allows is for McCann to be a much more patient hitter. There were times last year when, if the lineup got through Mac, it was slim pickings. Well if he hits cleanup…He’ll have Uggla, Freeman, Gonzo, and McLouth back there to pick it up.
The balance is great. Just need to get the right guys to flesh out the rest of the roster. HINSKE!!!!!
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The odds of Freeman putting up a “Heyward like year” are astronomically low.
First, at age (and Freeman WILL be 1 year older than Heyward was last year) only about 6 or 8 Major Leaguers, almost all of whom are either in or headed to the Hall or had tragedy (Tony Conigliaro). Freeman just isn’t that good.
I expect Freeman to do around 850 OPS against righthanders and 720 against lefthanders for a combined 800 or so. A slightly below average first baseman offensively and slightly or more above defensively.
In a few years, Freeman may be more like 950 against righthanders and 850 against lefthanders. But that would be his “career year”, probably.
Heyward’s “career year” might look something like this:
340 / 440 / 600 (AND plus 20 runs saved defensively).
Hopefully, the braves can still acquire a useful righty reliever such as Chad Qualls or the like over Peter Moylan to provide insurance for Kimbrel and Venters. (Neither have played a full season.) I don’t think Hinske will sign for as low as $1.5 million, but I hope I’m wrong.
Someone like Tony Gwynn Jr is even more vital on the bench to provide defensive help for Prado who will be in the outfield. I also think they’ll have to settle for in house replacements on the bench like Conrad and Diory, but they are both pretty good for bench guys. Last year, it was nice to see the braves have such a talented bench. This year, the bench won’t be as good but the lineup will be better and the braves are going to be a better team than in 2010.
I would not go labeling Lee Hyde as longshot to making the club, particularly since ATL would only need to pay him league minimum salary and he would already be an in-house solution to being a left-handed specialist. That being said, I def. see him w/ the club sometime this season at some point.
I think Hinske will be resigned and will be the primary pinch hitter.
Guzman would be a good sign. I also wouldn’t mind seeing us sign Eckstein to take on a Rafael Belliard style role.
4th OF: Tony Gwynn, Carlos Gomez, or Andruw
I’ve got to second Cliff’s concerns. Sorry to be a pessimist, but I’m surprised at the general consensus that Freeman will step right in and provide adequate production at 1B. I don’t believe we’ve seen anything yet to warrant such an assumption. I know he projects well, but I won’t feel good about it until it happens. It’s a difficult situation – there’s really no way around it – but if he has to go down in a couple months, e.g. Jordan Schafer, it’s going to be a huge problem.
4/Pete
I don’t see it as a “huge” problem. It would certainly suck…but that’s why it’s great to still have Martin’s flexibility to step in at 1B.
This is my expectation of Freddie’s first year: great defense, .275/18/75
With the great defense, that will be a VERY solid year.
Three pretty significant question marks in the lineup:
Can Chipper stay healthy and be productive?
Can Freeman step in at 21 years old and play to the level being anticipated?
And will McLouth be at least adequate, both with the bat and in the field?
If all three are “yes’, we’re in great shape. If 2 are “yes” we’re probably still okay. But if we crap out on all three, Frank’s gonna have to scramble at the deadline to add some pieces. (Prado can step in at 3B or 1B, but of course that leaves a hole in LF).
I’m not predicting gloom and doom – not betting against any of those guys. But they are all legitimate question marks, IMO.
Comparing Freeman to Schaefer is not apples to apples. Freeman has EXCELLED at Triple A for an extended period of time, whereas Jordan did not. And I think that most of us expect Freeman to take his lumps and struggle at times. However, his defensive skills will help offset any lack of productivity which we got out of 1B this year. If Freeman hit .265/.335 with close to 20 home runs that would be enough.
Peter,
Are you giving up on the possibility of an impact defensive CF being signed and moving Nate to the 4th OF spot? Or is Wren slowplaying everyone, waiting until the major free agents sign and the dust settles?
Calling the Braves’ defense next year “decent” is surely an exaggeration, but they did win 91 games with poor defense this year. A good pitching staff makes up for a lot of errors… during the regular season.
I just wanted to get my two cents in on how I see Wren could fill out our roster. I think we should re-sign Hinske. This givess us a power LH bat who can play the corner positions (LF,RF,1B,3B). Then we sign Nick Punto to be our switch hitting utility infielder as a good glove with speed guy. Next, Randy Winn fills our 4th OF need as he can play all the spots and still has a good glove even though his offense is minimal. These three can all be signed to 1 yr/$1 mil contracts leaving us about 4 mil to go get JJ Putz nd JC Romero to solidify a rock solid bullpen. What do you guys think?
I appreciate CAC’s payroll recap. In my head, I thought that if we cleared 3 mill on K K we had a good bit more room.
The silly little issue of Proctor comes back in here. His $750,000 looks a lot bigger now.
I can still see a way to get some more insurance on this year’s offense and the plan won’t cost that much money “in the long run” (probably would only require a 2 million or so payroll increase even as the other needs are met as long as we don’t try to go get a 3 million top line proven right handed set up / back up closer guy).
Say Ludwick is non tendered. My feeling is he will get around 3 years 18 mill, maybe 2 years 14 million (maybe less, would be interested to see how CAC estimates that). If the Braves got Ludwick, signed Hinske, put Prado at first (or better defensively, Uggla to first Prado at 2nd), and sent Freeman down until All Star break, THEN, If we don’t have a bad injury early (tha makes us bring Freeman up):
1. We have closed our left handed pitcher weakness. And, if we detect one going the other way as to righties, we can let Hinske start 1/2 of the games at first and spell Prado, Ludwick and Uggla a game or two here or there.
2. We don’t have to come back next year and once again chase a left fielder.
3. Particularly if it is Prado at 2nd, the defensive upgrade with Ludwick also adds more than just the offensive lift from Uggla.
4. If you don’t have a bounce back from McLouth, Matt Young is enough to cover with the rest of these guys in the lineup.
5. You swap 1/2 of Freeman’s age 21 season (the first half of this year) for his age 27 season and his “surplus value” THEN should be almost as much as the cost of Ludwick for this year.
6. For 2012, you are set everywhere except center (with Young and Schaffer as possibilities that could make sense and do so cheaply) unless Chipper retires and then you have his and Uggla’s and Kawakami’s and McLouth’s salaries off the books and you can spend some money to solve the problem.
As Dave O’Brien has pointed out, with Frank Wren, expect the unexpected. Since the Braves had to surrender relatively little to land a slugger, they are in a position to make another significant move. FW is too smart to overpay, but he is also too opportunistic to pass up a good deal. Aside from bullpen and bench, they really need a viable alternative to Nate McLouth. Its fine to hope for a rebound, but I sure wouldn’t want to bet on it.
His name is Jordan Schafer. I’m amazed at how many different ways I have seen people spell it on both this and other Braves blogs. Not that it really matters.
Oh and I’m still dreaming for a Justin Upton Christmas.
I know that we’re probably not going to get a CF by trade and are probably “stuck” with letting Nate lose the job by underperforming, or showing that he’s actually capable of not sucking. I understand the argument about not wanting to pay 7mil for Nate to ride the pine either. But hear me out on this.
We know that FW is a master of making the deals that we didn’t see coming. We were all surprised at the package we gave up for Uggla. If you’d be willing to pay ~10mil combined for your CF and 4th OF, would it matter which one was the starter and which was on the bench, if the 7mil player was already on the roster? I know that Tampa doesn’t want to give up BJ supposedly, since they’re already losing Crawford, but who knows what package might tempt them to make the change. My reasoning to NOT totally close the door on this option, is what if Chipper doesn’t come back right away, or at all. I’m not going to even bring into consideration the financial ramifications of his retirement. Based purely on supposed payroll flexibility that we have left, we should be able to handle the 3mil that is owed to BJ this year (he’ll be arb eligible again in 2012 before becoming FA). Then if/when Chipper has issues, we can put Prado at 3B, McOut in LF and BJ in CF. When Chipper is healthy, we put Prado in LF, BJ in CF and McOut is our 4th OF.
Probably not going to happen, but I think the argument has some merit.
Cliff, I like your posts and bear with me because I am sick as a dog and I feel like I am drunk while reading this so maybe I’m just off today, but what????
I agree with a lot of what you say in principle, but a lot of this is just “if this, then this…”
And from everything I’ve been reading, Ludwick will most likely be tendered a contract. Also by all accounts, Uggla and Freeman will be playing 2B and 1B, respectively, on opening day for us next year no matter what.
I don’t mind bringing back Moylan as long as the price is right. And yeah we probably need another Veteran reliever. On the FA front my preference would probably be J.J. Putz, but his price tag will be too high. I assume we will get a reliever via trade etc..
As for the bench, Guzman sounds like a good option but I still want a great defensive backup, I guess Hicks could fill that roll. And if the Padres decide to non-tender Gywnn then I would love to have him over Mather.
It sure is nice to be discussing these minor pieces this early in the offseason and not have to worry about who is going to be our big RH bat.
Is is set that Matt Diaz won’t be back next ear? I just haven’t heard a word about him.
Also, what has anyone heard about putting Beachy in the bullpen? I read an article somewhere that suggested he would have a better career as a reliever, but who knows. I liked what I saw from him.
Is it still a viable option to think the Braves might trade Jair in a straight-up or maybe Jair + a mid-tier prospect for an upper-third percentile hitting OF? Not sure of specific names but initially I thought of Colby Rasmus because their salaries line up. But even if they were to deal for someone making 6 mil and get the other team to eat 1/2… everybody wins.
Is this still a possibility and would you mind letting JJ go with the 3 we have at the top, plus Medlen post-rehab, plus Minor, Beachy, Teheran, et al.
I see the bullpen filled out with Moylan and Beachy (ala Meds last season). My preference for those three bench spots would be Jerry Hairston, Jr., Matt Young, and Hinske.
@ CAC What will happen to Matt Diaz this off-season? Also, has Jordan Schafer come and gone as a solid major league outfielder?
Thanks
I’m with Brian, I know it’s a pipe dream at best, but I’m still hoping that Justin Upton somehow finds his way to ATL. Won’t bring it up again because all signs point to it not happening, but while I agree with everything you say about the current makeup of the team CAC and also think we can be very good next year, I still don’t like having to plug Prado in out in left just because he’s played there in spring ball. Is it asking too much that for just once we have a REAL left fielder who we aren’t forcing the issue on?
I realize acquiring the right handed power hitter we needed meant picking up a guy at a very bargain rate who happens to play the same position as one of our best players, but man, I’m just sick of throwing something at the wall out in left and hoping it sticks.
With that said, I’m done whining and I can’t wait for next season to get underway.
Scott,
If (big IF) we do somehow acquire an Upton, Prado’s status in LF in all likelihood would not change. Between Heyward and an Upton, they would cover CF and RF, leaving you once again asking for a “real” LF.
But Prado is fine in left. Would I rather him play his more natural position? Yes, but I don’t think we are “forcing the issue” here. Prado is a heck of an athlete and knowing that he actually has some experience playing there makes me feel even better about the situation.
The lineup is already significantly better than last year’s, and last year’s team won 91 games and made the playoffs. However, you have to be quite the optimist to expect a great year out of a rookie first baseman like Freeman or even average numbers from McClouth. Re-signing Hinske should be the top priority now, he is perfect as a bench bat and Freeman backup.
Hey Peter, offtrack question but do you go to Georgia Tech? If so what are you studying? Either way keep up the great work
Yellow Jacket
4) PeteFalcone
“It’s a difficult situation – there’s really no way around it – but if [Freeman] has to go down in a couple months, e.g. Jordan Schafer, it’s going to be a huge problem.”
You mean if he breaks his wrist during the 4th game of the season, doesn’t tell anyone, and hits .180 in the process? Luckily Freddie seems like he might be less of an idiot than Jordan.
*meant to be “7)”
Todd, yeah I completely forgot that would probably mean Heyward shifts to center and Upton goes to right. That pretty much nullifies what I said….so ignore it
One season doesn’t make a player a hall of famer, but it certainly does seem likely that it can sink said player. Nate McLouth, by all means, should be in line to step into the starting CF job. He is not, and should not be, as bad as he was this past year. I’m not ready to call him dead until I see Spring Training come and go with him doing as terrible as he did last year.
Also, the Proctor signing was quite a stretch, and I don’t think I would have thought to even bring this question up had someone here not said anything about him. How well does he have to do to be worth the $750,000 salary that he is given? Don’t go hyperbole on me. Would a sub-4.00 ERA, a 1.2-1.5 WHIP be good enough?
Finally, @CAC, is Christian Martinez not good enough to step into a long reliever position? Or perhaps something more so? He didn’t do poorly and, in my opinion, I’m unsure if he should automatically lose his, albeit shaky, bullpen spot that he had last year.
McLouth has always sucked against lefties and his defense has generally been no better than average. Last year, it was horrendous.
Alex Gonzalez had one of his better seasons last year with the bat, and he was a 3-4 win player. But keep in mind that he is on average a 1-2 win player for his career. To me, that leaves the Braves with three big Ifs: if Gonzalez regresses, and if McLouth fails to regress, and if Freeman does not adapt well to major league pitching, then the Braves will have a decent, but not great, lineup.
On the other hand, if even one of those “Ifs” don’t come true, then the Braves should be fine with the bats. And they’ll have to be, because their defense isn’t going to be good at all.
20 and 24: Diaz probably will not be tendered per speculation here and also per DOB. He’s a useful player, but the Braves can’t afford to give him a roster spot and pay him $2.5M if he’s not at least starting vs LHP–which he wouldn’t be, if Chipper is healthy.
Cliff/14: per mlbtr the other day, Ludwick is likely to get tendered.
YJ/28: Peter is or has gone to GT. Hard to believe someone who writes as well as he does is a Jacket, isn’t it?
Anyone care to put odds on whether Chipper is ready by opening day?
Regarding Freeman, I think he’ll hit around .290/.340/.480 or so, .820 OPS, about as good against lefties as righties.
LawDawg/11,
No, not at all, I think acquiring a glove-first 4th OF is the next step.
Ron E./12,
The team was about 20th in defensive efficiency last year. They’re replacing Melky/Diaz with Prado (upgrade), Glaus with Freeman (huge upgrade), and Prado with Uggla (downgrade). They’ll be decent.
J.R./13,
Randy Winn, ugh. I don’t think they’ll pursue J.C. Romero because he’s left-handed and he pretty much sucks. J.J. Putz will price himself out of Atlanta, unfortunately.
Sam/20,
Pretty much.
Sam/21,
I think the Braves like Beachy as a starter and they’ll send him to AAA to keep him stretched out if he isn’t on the opening day active roster.
Stender/24,
Schafer just needs to play and Matt Diaz will be non-tendered because they’ve replaced his production for $2 million less with Joe Mather.
YellowJacket/28,
Yes, ChemE.
Jon/32,
Martinez is absolutely good enough to step into the long reliever spot. Unfortunately they idiotically gave Scott Proctor $750,00 to (hopefully) do that.
YJ, Peter,
To Hell With Georgia.
The Braves need to focus on getting another solid outfielder. Chipper (at the most) will play 130 games, and I’m guessing it’s more like 110 or 120. When Prado moves to 3rd, we’re looking at a Heyward/McLouth/Hinske outfield assuming your scenario comes true.
We HAVE to improve this.
The CF plan as i see it goes like this:
Plan A = McLouth
Plan B = Platoon w/ RH 4th OF
Plan C = Schafer
Plan D = midseason trade
McLouth would have to be horrible (which he was last year) for them to eat his salary. But the later it gets in the season the less they’ll care about the salary left.
The question is what does the organization plan to do with CF in 2012? if they plan on filling CF via trade, then why not go ahead and make the deal midseason if it’s there? if they plan on FA, then they need to sign a good enough 4th OF to fill that spot at least decently (Tony Gwynn Jr.!) should McLouth continue to struggle. If that means sacrificing a bullpen arm FA because of payroll restrictions, so be it. CF is more important than one more bullpen arm, and if McLouth recovers form then you can always trade for an extra arm.
Scott C./37,
The Braves do not need to improve that if they get a good glove man to be their 4th OF.
CAC,
You think there’s any chance Schafer becomes our 4th OF? It’s totally unknown if he will ever be able to hit again, but that boy can play some D. We could probably invest a little more in our FA relievers if we stay in-house for our outfielder.
He needs regular reps, both in the field and at the plate, to become a useful major leaguer. As talented as he is, he doesn’t really play CF that well at the moment, he has a lot to learn. He’s not going to develop into a major-leaguer by serving as a defensive replacement, and since defensive replacements are cheap they’d be better off leaving Schafer in the minors.
“Not a whole lot to fret over”–I keep hearing this phrase in my head, over and over, and yet McLouth is still a Brave and presumably the starting center fielder.
He sucked as a pirate (golden glove and all Star as a pirate?? What kind of credentials are those) and he sucks more every day as a Brave.
There is no upside and a team with McLouth as a starting outfielder is simply shooting itself in the foot. And he’s the starting centerfielder??
Sad, sad, sad.
And by the way, “sucks” isn’t necessarily a technical term, but it applies to McLouth. If he was a statistic, he’d be RBI’s.
That just sounds like flat out bashing without a whole lot to back it up, Tom. Go. Learn stats. For all our sakes.
Sorry this is my first post. I have heard some rumblings that against tough lefties Uggla or Prado could move to first to spell Freddie. With this in mind, might it be a good idea to bring back Diaz who owns lefties to play left and PH? I know he doesn’t play great defense and thus would take up a bench spot that the Braves might use for a defensive outfielder. However assuming the Braves need a Defensive OF, INF and PH, they could pencil Matty D in as the PH (*I have no idea about his numbers as a PH) rather than Hinske who does not hit lefties well at all. With Diaz in there the lineup would be scary against lefties.
I’m not sure if I would support this, but it did pop in my head. What are your thoughts?
And for all those that might be interested in the All-Star Nate McLouth, click here
Pretty good stats in my opinion. “sucks” doesn’t come to my mind when I see stuff like that, even if a guy was playing completely out of his mind.
Paul McCrory/44,
Thanks for popping in. I think Joe Mather will be doing the Matt Diaz thing for the 2011 Braves. If they didn’t have him it would make a lot more sense to retain Diaz.
I think that Joe Mather could be really good for the Braves if he can display the power that he did during his healthy seasons. If he’s really as versatile as his metrics indicate(basically average at every OF position 1B and 3B).
Anyone else think that Jon Rauch could be a decent fit for the pen and could probably be affordable?
Jon, I’m sorry but McClouth does suck. I hope he plays well next year but I don’t think it’s even remotely likely. Only once in his career has he been over 2 wins above replacement. I don’t expect him to be negative WAR like he was last year (if he is the Braves should eat his salary and cut him) but that doesn’t mean he’s any good. He strikes me as a Jeff Francoeur redux– someone who has built a career around one good season and isn’t likely to ever repeat it.
SF Braves Fan/48,
I don’t know if there’s anyone quite like Francoeur. McLouth could be serviceable. His BABIP was .221, down from .281 the season before and his career BABIP of .277. I just can’t convince myself a somewhat young player like McLouth can drop his wOBA by about 70 points and never be average again without cause of injury. All his plate discipline numbers line up pretty well with his career numbers, and with years which were much more successful for him. Maybe he needs some kind of sports psychiatrist.
Jeremy is right IMO, both about McLouth and the fact that there’s nobody quite like Frenchy.