Elephant in the room: Chipper Jones
November 29, 2010 at 8:21 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Enough people share this dubious opinion for me to justify writing an entire blog post on the subject.
The reasons people think Chipper Jones should retire fall into two categories: uninformed and irrational. Those that subscribe to the reasons that fall under the former category are worth discussing the issue with, so this article will focus on those.
In the ‘uninformed’ category, there are basically two common fallacies: taking Chipper’s recent performance at face value and failing to understand the relationship between on-field production and financial value.
The first one is a bit more difficult to wrap your brain around. It’s been covered at-length in this space (primarily here), but I’ll re-hash and expound a bit more. A player’s observed level of performance is just a sample of data. As we accumulate more and more data we become more and more confident that the observed level of performance is close to his true talent level. A hitter may go 4/4 with 2 HR in his first game of the season, but he’s not really a 1.000/1.000/2.500 hitter and won’t finish the season with 324 home runs. It takes awhile for the observed level of performance to stabilize into something that resembles his true talent level. The question is, how much? The answer is more than one season. You’re never going to raise your confidence level to 100%, but 1 and 2 season samples don’t get you particularly close, either.
Take Chipper’s .265/.385/.429 line the past two years. Not that there’s anything wrong with having a third baseman whom you can expect to post a 123 wRC+, but there’s a good chance that line doesn’t accurately represent his true talent level for reasons discussed above. Considering he’s a career .306/.405/.536 hitter and hit .350/.446/.590 in 2007-2008, there’s a very good chance he’s a better hitter than his 2009-2010 results would indicate.
Then there’s the whole balls-in-play luck thing. Chipper has been extraordinarily unfortunate in this regard, something that’s less a function of his ability/performance and more a function of entropy. This was discussed in depth in the article linked above, the takeaway being: even if Chipper’s 2009-2010 performance equals his true talent level, we can expect his results to be better due to improved fortunes on balls in play.
Over the last two years Chipper Jones has been worth 5.6 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs. At $4.5 million/win, his services have been worth about $25 million. Guess how much he’s been paid over the last two years? Yep, $25 million. It’s certainly not like 2008 when he was worth around $35 million and paid $11 million, but to call Chipper’s contract a burden on the organization is 100 percent silly. The Braves couldn’t do much better than Chipper on the free agent market for $14 million–that buys you about 3.1 wins. If Chipper is healthy and ready to go in 2011, 3.1 wins is about the least I’d expect him to produce, including any aging, limitations due to the recent ACL injury, and the fact that we can’t expect him to play more than 120 games or so.
If Chipper can’t play, he won’t and the Braves will be able to reallocate the $14 million (they won’t be able to get a player better than Chipper for $14 million without trading prospects). If he can play, we’re looking at having a 3-5 win third baseman. Either way, if the Braves don’t have a successful 2011 season, it probably won’t be because of anything Chipper Jones does or doesn’t do. The list of contracts the Braves have to worry about now and in the future is not headed by Chipper Jones and still won’t be after Kenshin Kawakami is traded.
The best possible scenario for the 2011 Braves involves having a healthy and productive Chipper Jones, it does not involve him retiring. His recovery timetable suggests he’ll be ready for the start of spring training and barring any setback he should be in store for a (by his standards) healthy 2011 season. That’s what I’m hoping for, because that’s what gives the Braves the best chance of making the playoffs. They’re a better team with him than without him, because despite the fact that he probably won’t hit 20 homers ever again, he’s still really, really good at baseball.
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Great analysis of quality stats & facts. Batting average is over rated and while Chipper may not play more than 120 games each season he will still be a positive influence in the club house.
Assuming Chipper, Hudson and Lowe all play out their 2 years balance on the current contracts, does this mean the Braves will have a war chest for FAs in 2 years time?
I can’t agree with you more, no one we have can replace the plate discipline in the #3 spot. It just changes the whole dynamic when he isn’t in that lineup. FYI i have to deal with those Zipper haters all the time down here.
Id like to see the actual formula for BABIP as a function of entropy… that would be cool.
It seems that when players begin to decline that fans think they’ve become useless. No, he’s not as valuable as he used to be, but that does not mean he’s not valuable at all. His production has a long way to fall, and though he’s declining from stardom, he’s still an excellent player.
Good article. I’ve argued this in a less technical manner with those in the irrational column who thought Chipper would destroy the team by being forced into the three hole despite his low average and HR totals, as if that’s all there is. However, I do have a concern about Chipper that I think is legitimate, and that is health. He’s starting to have more nagging old man (relatively) injuries. But I think Uggla makes me feel better, since Prado can play 3rd. Still, the hole in the lineup is without Chipper, not with him.
Would it be worth to consider switching Chipper with Prado in left field? Would Prado have a better defensive upgrade at 3rd with Chipper in LF or the current way? I’ve always heard those surgeries reduce a step in a players defense mobility in the infield.
By the same token they reduce the player’s mobility in the outfield, a place where mobility is much more important. You’d be improving the infield defense by about 5-10 runs at the expense of the outfield defense (by at least 10 runs), as well as putting the older, more injury-prone, and recently operated on player in a more difficult situation. It would be a bad idea.
I understand the point you are trying to make CAC, but I have to disagree. You are betting on him doing at least as well as he has the past 2 seasons. Right now he appears to be on a very steady decline in both health and ability. I do not see how the Braves could not add a FA for $14 million that would not be an improvement. Even if that involved moving Prado to 3rd and spending the money on a LF. Now I do not think Chipper retiring is something that has to happen and I would love to see him healthy and contributing, but all signs point to the exact opposite.
Doug G/8,
His results the past two seasons do not = his ability. BIP luck, BIP luck, BIP luck.
A healthy Chipper season is what, 120 or 130 games? Even without an extended DL stint, he’ll need plenty of time off. Because of that, I really hope we get a CF who can force McLouth into the LF when Prado’s at 3rd/4th OF/LH bat off the bench role. And acquiring a CF will take either an increased willingness to part with a young arm or arms, or some payroll gymnastics, or another unexpected steal of a deal.
There seems to be a massive misinterpretation about our 2010, and likely 2011-2012 third baseman’s capacity for offensive production. This is probably due to his decline from being one of the top 3 third baseman in the game for nearly a decade, to now being just “well above average.” The misinterpretation is further fueled by our ex-manager’s insistence on batting Chipper 3rd no matter what.
For 2010, this is how Chipper ranked offensively amount NL third basemen (min. 300 PAs):
wOBA – .358 (4th, behind David Wright and ahead of Chris Johnson, Martin Prado)
wRC+ – 126 (4th)
ISO – .161 (10th, behind Chris Johnson, ahead of Casey Blake, Martin Prado)
Chipper is still one of the most productive 3B around, even if a lot of his production comes from his ability to get on base. This ability is incredibly valuable to the team, obviously, as it avoids making outs, but isn’t as dynamic as hitting 400 foot bombs. Fans tend to miss the little things like this and only focus on the negatives — but to say that Chipper Jones was STILL one of the most productive 3B in the league, at age 38, is pretty impressive.
In my book Chipper has always been a long-term bargain in terms of contributions versus price tag. He could have made so much more money somewhere else, and yet he chose to stay in Atlanta.
People say they hate the mercenary aspects of ballplayers, and yet turn around and want to run Chipper out of baseball the second he hangs a .250 average over four months. What gives?
If there’s one guy on the Braves who deserves every opportunity to prove he can still play, it’s Chipper Jones.
Do we know anything about this guy Costanza we invited to spring training? Possible cheap speed 4th OF? Good obp in triple a. Anything more?
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jon Byars, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: In which I tell you if you want Chipper Jones to retire you want the Braves to be a worse team in 2011 — http://is.gd/hY7bB [...]
12/teamlittleguy,
Not to mention, he could have made more money even with the Braves.
Also, I think people tend to forget 2004. He hit .248 in 137 games that year, battling injuries. So it’s not like he hasn’t battled adversity on the field before. At 38, a jump back to the .330′s he ripped off in the years following that 2004 slump year is unlikely, but I definitely feel he can approach .300 again with 15 homers and a high OBP. Sounds very valuable to me.
Wonder what kind of uproar you’d get if this was placed on the AJC or elsewhere, CAC. Some of the guys who are on the AJC blog have been yelling for Chipper’s head since the middle of May.
I’ve always thought that Chipper was the cornerstone and the face of the current franchise. Getting rid of him, or even making him just a coach with the team, wouldn’t be a smart move for anybody who wishes good fortunes on the Braves, as a team and a business. I think that Chipper means as much to me as Jeter means to a Yankees fan.
I’m not a proponent of the “Chipper needs to retire” position, but I find it interesting that no one seems to remember that Chipper himself was a proponent of that position early in 2010. If he has another wretched start, will CAC send Chipper this column?
@Adam/11, “our ex-manager’s insistence on batting Chipper 3rd no matter what” – not sure if that is accurate or whether CJ is the insistent one – part of what concern I do have over Chipper is related to whether he is willing to do whatever is best for the team (re: playing time, spot in the order, etc.) or whether he feels he has to be in the lineup batting third every day to be “respected”.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/06/15/chipper-jones-has-more-pride-than-to-sit-back-collect-checks/
^PeteFalcone
I just wanted to look it up because I remember reading about Chipper wanting to retire as well.
An aside though, I know that shortly after he talked about that, he went on a decent tear bringing his batting average up a lot before he went down with that knee injury.
I can’t see him not wanting to fight back and not doing a lot better hitting the ball next year.
16/Pete
Chipper said publicly several times that he argued with Bobby to move him OUT of the 3 hole and Bobby insisted on keeping him there. Which I am fine with considering he is still the best hitter on the team (Heyward may surpass him this year).
Bobby knew his “true talent level”. Chipper is still one of the elite on base guys in all of baseball. His power has dwindled with age but when it comes to the two, I take OBP all day long. With a little more normal BABIP luck this year Hoss will again get on base at a .400 clip.
It would be different if we had a high avg/high slugging guy to put in that 3 hole, but we don’t.
Roger @1
I doubt we’ll be in store for a war chest of FA’s because we’ll be starting to pony up for JJ, Hanson, and getting ready to pony up for Heyward at that point.
I see us adding maybe on big time guy…but thats about it.
CAC,
I love Chipper and definitely want him to come back and continue to be a cog in the lineup.
I have to say that I don’t FULLY agree with the BABIP/Balls-in-Play-Luck thing, though. BABIP is, in large part, driven by line drive percentage, since line drives are typically base hits 75% of the time. Chipper’s line drive percentages, AVG, and BABIP since 2002 are listed below:
AVG BABIP LD%
2002 .327 .349 25.7
2003 .305 .315 23.0
2004 .248 .246 14.9
2005 .296 .300 23.0
2006 .324 .339 19.3
2007 .337 .348 19.2
2008 .364 .383 24.1
2009 .264 .287 20.0
2010 .265 .281 18.3
For the most part, there’s a distinct coorelation between line drive percentage and AVG. A high line drive percentage, like in 2008, produces a high BABIP, and thus a high AVG. Conversely, a low line drive percentage (note 2004 and 2010) produces a low BABIP and AVG.
I realize there is a LOT of luck involved in hitting for a high average, but a fair percentage of that “luck” can be assigned to how hard a guy is hitting the ball, wouldn’t you say?
I certainly don’t think Chipper Jones should retire, at least not based on performance. However, I am very skeptical of his ability to remain healthy. How much is that surgically repaired knee going to need rest as the season goes on? Given his past history, is he going to have trouble with hamstring or groin pulls? I think that expecting Chipper to play 120-130 games is a very optimistic assessment.
20/Chris,
According to what you’ve listed, Chipper’s 06/07 LD%s are almost equal to his 09/10 LD%s (if you average the two years). Yet he hit over .320 in both 06 and 07, while only .264 in 09/10. So by your terms, he hit the ball just as hard in 09/10, yet batted 60 points less.
I think we have to consider how Chipper’s style of hitting as transformed over the last few years. He’s become much more of a singles hitter, which really started in that monstrous post-ASB 2007 into 2008. I think Chipper changed his style for many reasons, the biggest being that he knew with his aging body that he would be in and out of the lineup frequently, and it would be easier to keep a more consistent swing as a singles type hitter.
As a result, his ISO has dropped dramatically, but he has still been productive. Chipper has been unlucky with his avg over the last two years, but his dropping ISO is a much clearer sign of his age and inevitable decline.
The main thing I hope Fredi realizes that Cox never seemed to understand is that old players need more scheduled time off. Chipper needs 2 days off per week, even if he feels good enough to play.
If Fredi forces Chipper to sit 2 days per week (and there is already one off-day built into most weeks, so he would really only miss one game per week) I bet Chipper puts up a 900 OPS in 130-135 games.
Chris,
Read the article I linked to related to luck on BIP. His BABIP has been well below his xBABIP for the past two years.
I do agree with the conclusion of this article, but the marginal value of that $14 million ought to be considered as well. For instance, if the Braves have $8 million dollars available right now (number purely example) and Chipper’s contract coming off the books allowed Wren to sign Carl Crawford, well, that would be extremely valuable given the Braves position on the win curve and roster construction. That signing probably wouldn’t be feasible with Uggla on the roster anyway, but I don’t think looking at $14 million in a vacuum is thorough.
CAC/25,
I definitely prefer xBABIP over BABIP, as it factors in hit types. The typical line drive has a .739 AVG, ground ball is .240, and fly ball is .223. These must be taken into account when trying to determine “luck”.
I love translating that xBABIP into an x-slash line, like you did in the linked article. Is there any chance you could do that for the Braves’ roster in an upcoming article and compare it to their actual slash lines from 2010 so we can possibly determine which of our hitters we might expect to be better this year and which we might expect to be worse? Thanks for all you do.
Even purely an example of a number, I would think that Crawford could demand up to $25mil per year from the Yankees alone.
No matter what kind of ways the Braves could free up space, I just don’t see a player in the upper echelon of Free Agency coming. Especially not when Wren was being as savvy as he was grabbing Uggla from the Marlins.
Great article, CAC. Thanks for writing it. Seeing this defense of Chipper, however, I wonder why he considered retiring (prior to his injury) last year. He was clearly frustrated at himself, and in part, one can assume he didn’t think it was entirely because of bad luck. I imagine he understands that aspect of the game. Now, he clearly had a significant change of heart, but no one understands Chipper’s game better than himself, and it concerns me that even prior to a significant injury, he was questioning whether he still “had it.”
Josh/29,
When a player’s batting avg drops 100 points from one season to the next, he is definitely going to question himself and his abilities and at least entertain the R word. The media blew it out of proportion — tough to really say how serious Chipper actually considered retirement.
I think by August Chipper had really forgotten about the R word and was ready to send #6 out on top…and then disaster hit. But because he had regained his confidence, he flat out said that he would be rehabbing and showing up for ST. Would have been interesting if he had gotten hurt a couple of months earlier.
Even if chipper decided to retire wouldn’t still be on the hook for part of his $13 mil this year. When he was talking about retiring I remember hearing about him and Wren talking about reaching a settlement that would essentially buyout the last years of the contract. I guess what I’m saying is even though it wouldn’t be part of the payroll the organization would still be paying him a large amount of money to retire.
CAC, Am I right by assuming this?
TCQ/26,
I wrote about this some here.
Signing free agents at market rate does not create surplus value in the long run. When you’re dealing with players getting 6+ year deals, there’s some surplus value in the in years and a deficit in the out years. Or, the economic cost in the in-years is greater than the player’s salary.
Frank Wren isn’t too much into mortgaging the future for current gains (I don’t blame him), and it’s not something the team is in much of a position to do, anyway.
Josh,
I have no idea.
CAC, The Chipper xBABIP article you linked to was fantastic, cleared up the concept for me. It seems like most of the misunderstanding in the comments of this blog derives from a lack of knowledge about the fundamental insights of sabermetric analysis. Would it make your job easier to simply preempt the frustration with explicit links to articles like these on your site?
I guess my question is really: Do you envision this blog as instructive, or conversational among people with a shared understanding?
David/34,
Both, really. I focused more on the former when I first started and I’ve been focusing on the latter more as of late.
One: with a given placement on the win curve, win escalation can be extremely valuable, even without traditional (WAR dollar value/year) surplus value.
Two: the point was that the amount of cleared money should be considered in context of best estimated current payroll flexibility and free agent/trade options. Any examples are just that.
Not really, this roster is past the point where adding additional wins is extremely valuable. They’ve got a 93-95-win team right now (assuming they do what we expect them to, sign Hinske or something like him, acquire a good defensive OF, acquire another reliever or two).
Josh/29,
Someone asked Dave O’Brien about it once, and he said he’s never heard the guys in the clubhouse throwing around sabermetric stats. While Chipper surely understands the luck in the game, I doubt he was looking at this kind of statistics to say he was being unlucky. His frustration was probably a mixture of the fact that his traditional stats were not there, and he felt like he wasn’t helping the team, and that he didn’t “feel right” at the plate (a phrase he used when he was considering retirement). Also, the health issues he’s had over the past few years would wear on anyone.
I think the one thing not mentioned in the article is the natural decline most players experience as they age. sometimes it’s gradual and sometime its precipitous. Baseball players don’t age like fine wine. Using career statistics to project future performance only makes sense if talent level is static. But talent is not static. In the twilight of a player’s career there is no great way to project performance because there is just no way to know how quickly he’ll age. As time marches on those statistics from 1999 are in no way reflective of Chipper’s talent level in 2011. If he were still 30 a couple of off years wouldn’t mean much, but at Chipper’s age his gradual loss of power and more precipitous dip in BA should be considered a portent of things to come. When you factor is that he’ll be coming off a major injury the picture becomes cloudier still. The most reasonable expectation for Chipper in 2011 is a small drop from his 2009-2010 performance level. Certainly no one could realistically be expecting Chipper to surpass his 2009-2010 numbers?
I’ll quote myself: “with a given placement on the win curve”.
That doesn’t say “with the Braves current placement on the win curve”. The point, once again, is that your evaluation was mildly misleading in saying – and I’ll continue to quote, as that’s evidently was necessary in this instance (/snide out) – “(they won’t be able to get a player better than Chipper for $14 million without trading prospects)” when the question is what the Braves could get with said $14 million in addition to their current situation.
If you would allow me to rephrase with the benefits of hindsight, can we just throw out the examples, please? They’ve obviously muddied the waters, and that was not my intention.
As a note, because I don’t mean to be an asshole here, I do realize that I said the Braves position on the win curve would be conducive to a free agent signing in my first comment. That wasn’t what you were directly responding to in your last post, but I do stand by it since I’m not quite as optimistic as you on the Braves current roster construction. I also haven’t done sufficient legwork on that subject to make a pissing contest out of it, though, so I’ll just refer back to ‘graph three.
CAC at 32,
Don’t know where I saw it, but I think it was during last year’s offseason (maybe the one before). Somebody that knew his stuff wrote an article about bad free agent contracts. His conclusion was that the best free agent contracts for the team were long and expensive position players. Next, moderately long and expensive starting pitchers (really long contracts for pitchers was the ultimate “no no”). These contracts produced surplus value. Almost like there are so few bidders bidding on the last 1.5 WAR for 6 years that they don’t carry the value that the first 4.0 WAR for 3 years carries.
The least valuable group was 1 year contracts. That is, in trying to buy cheap, teams were frequently buying into declining quality goods. (I do think teams have gotten smarter onthese 1 year deals over the lst few years).
Interestingly, the Braves hit pay dirt on every one year FA deal they let out last year. Glaus, Hinske, Saito, Wagner. All 4 produced above their contract amount. (I don’t think there were any more, were there?)
I know something Bobby would often do with his catchers would be to give them an off day befor the team had a real off day. I think if the Braves did something like that where Chipper usually took they day off befor a team off day or if they had to take a cross country flight it would benefit the team. 120 games of Chipper near 100% is a lot more valuable (and lowers the risk of a DL stint) than trying to grind out 150.
Since they solved the problem with Uggla — and are going to use Prado in left. Then they need a 3B. If Chipper retires, it weakens the team, and they will need someone to fill either left, 2nd, or 3rd. His production has dipped, but if he can still get on base like he has, then he will be an above-average player. It isn’t exactly easy to find above-average baseball players.
cliff/41,
Well, Saito and Wags weren’t exactly buying cheap. Those were more betting that they still had at least 1 good year left. And, as long as we gave them sufficient rest, they did.
Not sure what you’re looking for, though. Diaz, Moylan and Proctor were 1-year contracts (avoided arb). AGon and Melky were on 1-year contracts, but those were signed by the teams we got them from. Then there’s a plethora of guys like JJ, Prado, EOF, Hanson and Medlen who were on 1-year contracts, but I assume they would be excluded since they aren’t eligible for FA yet.
GT Alum @ 44,
The arb eligible guys that took one year deals are not what I wa looking at. Of the true free agents that the Braves signed during last offseason, is anybody aware of any other than the 4 in 39 above?
Also, still wondering if CAC has chewed on the “long contract / short contract” best value issue?
When I starting reading this article I was going to go on and on about how right you were and blah blah blah. But I’ll just put this from a purely fan perspective and leave it at that.
I’m 25 years old, so basically from the time I could really figure out what was going on, Chipper Jones has been my favorite player. When this year’s injury ruined his season, that next day when I discovered the injury I basically assumed, that was it, my lifetime favorite Brave was gone and (not to sound too lame or anything) I shed a tear because it officially meant the end to my childhood.
I don’t care what he really does at this point because for me, it’s all about not wanting to let go of my favorite Brave. Seeing him at third means everything is alright in this world. Not having Bobby sitting in the dugout is already going to be weird enough, I’d like to delay having to accept that Chipper is no longer the Braves 3rd baseman for as long as I can.
I do not think that Chipper moving to first and platooning with FF would be a bad idea if we could get a solid 3rd basemen or even an above average 2nd basemen and move uggla to 3rd but I do still think ol’ chipper has some left in the tank and I would hate to see him go out without at least attempting a comeback even if it is in a reduced role
I’m the first to say that too many baseball decisions and opinions are based on too much quantitative data and not enough qualitative data. That’s something I’ve always liked about the Braves’ scouting: management doesn’t simply go by pure statistical analysis, but also takes into consideration the gut feeling–the unquantifiable qualitative experience–of the scouts themselves.
That said, there is a flaw in your logic regarding Chipper. It is true that taking the last two seasons as a sample would not give us a true picture of Chipper Jones’ value as a professional baseball player. But it is equally specious logic to assume that because Chipper has been a very good player over the long-term, the last two years are simply an abberation.
If we were talking about flipping coins and guessing heads or tails, and we’d had two years worth of flips of only tails, then it would be true: we are quite due for many heads to even things out. But that is because each flip is independent of all the others.
Unfortunately, the same is not true for a baseball player. If you review the career statistics of almost any Hall of Fame caliber player, you’ll usually find that a sample at the end of the player’s career does not equal his overall career averages in most statistics. This is of course because of the additional variable which your analysis of Chipper leaves out: time.
While it is true that the last two years are not a representative sample of Chipper’s career-long skills, they likely ARE a representative sample of his end-of-career-skills.
Those who may think the Braves would be better served if Chipper were to retire are essentially saying that while a mid-career Chipper Jones is worth $13m/yr., an end-of-career Chipper Jones is not. I see nothing either uninformed or irrational in this argument.
ps:
Scott K @ 46:
I sympathize. Personally, summers just aren’t the same for me without Skip and Pete…
Cliff,
I’d love to see the article.
MGM/48,
While it is true that the last two years are not a representative sample of Chipper’s career-long skills, they likely ARE a representative sample of his end-of-career-skills.
That’s simply bullshit.
Those who may think the Braves would be better served if Chipper were to retire are essentially saying that while a mid-career Chipper Jones is worth $13m/yr., an end-of-career Chipper Jones is not.
This is also completely wrong.