Roster Update/Rant/Extensions
December 11, 2010 at 6:42 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
With the 2011 roster mostly constructed, the Braves can spend the rest of the offseason planning for the future.
First, a bit on the 2011 roster. Right now the Braves are about $1.4 million over budget with 2 league minimum players filling out the bench (Schafer/Young and Hernandez/one of those 6-year FA’s) assuming an $88 million payroll. This will change once Kenshin Kawakami is dealt. Early in the offseason it was reported that a Japanese club would be willing to provide the Braves with $3 million in salary relief for Kawakami’s rights. Unfortunately MLB contracts aren’t transferable to NPB, so the Braves can’t simply trade Kawakami to a Japanese team. If Kawakami is going to play in Japan next year he’ll have to agree to a contract with a NPB team after his rights are sold, and word is he wants to stay in the United States (thus he won’t agree to a contract with a NPB team). So the Kawakami-to-Japan thing is all but dead and the Braves are going to have to find a stateside trading partner.
I don’t blame Kawakami for wanting to stay in the U.S., he’s perfectly capable of contributing to a MLB team. The Braves have only themselves to blame for the position they’re in with Kawakami. In 2010 he pitched as well as he did in 2009, posting a nearly identical FIP, xFIP, bbFIP, and SIERA both years. Yet his ERA was a run and a third higher due to things he can’t control–defense and sequencing. The Braves should have recognized the quality of his performance was the same and given him an opportunity to rebound a bit. Instead he was exiled to the bullpen and threw 109 total pitches during the season’s final three months. As a result of this irresponsible lack of use Kris Medlen is on the shelf for most of 2011 and the Braves are going to have to eat somewhere between $3 and $6 million of Kawakami’s 2011 salary ($6.67 million) and receive next to nothing in return for a slightly below-average starter. Not to mention the fact that the Braves are going to have a tough time luring other Japanese players in the future, don’t think for one second all of Japan didn’t notice Atlanta’s mistreatment of Kawakami. It was penny wise and pound foolish. The Braves are undoubtedly kicking themselves right now. I only hope they’re kicking themselves for the correct reason: not signing Kawakami to a 3-year, $23 million contract, but squandering an asset. That’s called strip-mining, and it’s how good organizations turn into awful ones. This situation won’t itself ruin the Braves, but the way it was managed is quite frightening.
Back to the roster, here’s what it looks like:
Note: the roster spots occupied by Schafer and Hernandez indicate spring training battles rather than guaranteed spots.
Since Kenshin Kawakami is all but certainly staying in the U.S., I have no idea how much the Braves will have left to spend. In that light, I would be mentally prepared for them to basically break camp with the above 25 on the active roster. There’s nothing wrong with that roster, though another $2 million to acquire a better 4th OF and reserve INF would be very nice.
I’m assuming the Braves will at least discuss locking up some of their players this offseason. Dan Uggla gets talked about a lot because he’s a free agent after 2011, but I would offer a bit of unsolicited advice on that front: DON’T DO IT YET!
From ESPN Stats & Info Blog:
There is one indicator that shows that Uggla’s streak of four straight 30-homer seasons may come to an end in Atlanta.
The right-handed hitting Uggla is a pull power hitter, with all but three of his home runs in 2010 traveling to left field or left center. Since 2006, Uggla has hit 154 home runs, with 114 hit to left field or left center at an average distance of 392 feet, according to HitTrackerOnline.
Uggla’s average home run distance to left or left center dropped in 2010 to 385 feet.
Why is a seven-foot drop significant for Uggla?
Turner Field, Uggla’s new home ballpark, is slightly less friendly to right-handed hitters than Sun Life Stadium (according to the Park Factors available in the Bill James Baseball Handbook).
Also, Turner had an average home run distance of 399 feet to left and left center in 2010, and 400 feet dating back to 2006.
This could suggest that Uggla will have “warning-track power” in Atlanta. Using data from Hittrackeronline.com, we can estimate that of Uggla’s 13 home runs in Florida last season, only eight would have been home runs at Turner Field.
There may be nothing to see here, just a little bit of variance. This may be a sign of a real decline, though, and in that light waiting to see what Uggla’s got would be the smart thing to do. Keith Law also offers: “Uggla’s not a player I want to lock up into his mid-30s”.
Next offseason the Braves will have to find a shortstop, center fielder, and possibly a third baseman or left fielder. If Chipper does retire, retaining Uggla and moving Prado to 3B makes a lot of sense. If Chipper does not retire, I’m not sure retaining Uggla and using Prado in LF is an efficient allocation of resources, considering their payroll and needs.
Other than Uggla, there are five logical candidates to receive contract extensions. Two of them you can pretty much immediately throw out due to their representation (Scott Boras)–Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens. This leaves Jason Heyward, Martin Prado and Brian McCann. Heyward is five years away from free agency and hasn’t been fully healthy for a single professional season. Despite his freakish talent, this is one I’d wait on. Brian McCann and Martin Prado are both scheduled to hit free agency after the 2013 season (assuming Brian McCann’s no-brainer-of-a-$12 million 2013 club option is exercised). Despite their different service time situations, Prado and McCann are the same age! 2014 will be their age 30 seasons, so locking them up for more than two or three years beyond their current deals would probably be a mistake, but at least exploring an extension with both player is appropriate. I’d offer McCann 2-years, $30 million with a $17 million club option for 2016 ($2 million buyout) and Prado a 5-year, $35 million contract and see if either sticks.
Beyond that, the Braves have a crappy draft position next year (28th overall) and didn’t net any picks from departing free agents, so if they’re inclined to add some talent to their system (and they absolutely should be) now would be a good time to go after some of the July 2 leftovers. Cory Harrilchak is currently their best OF prospect, so pursuing some international OF prospects would be very wise, if not downright imperative.
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I don’t think someone as good as McCann would take something as small as a two year offer, it sucks but with how catchers age it wouldn’t destroy me to see him walk after 2013 instead of being locked up to 35 at around 15 mill a year
Right with you on Kawakami except for this:
“As a result of this irresponsible lack of use Kris Medlen is on the shelf for most of 2011…”
Do you really believe there is a cause and effect there?
No need to move at all in the near future on Heyward, Prado, or McCann. I think this is Lowe’s last year on his current contract and it isn’t toofar off to use his 15 mil per year to extend Jair and Hanson. Medlin will be fine (hopefully) to return next year. We will need to replace our CF and as you stated probably our 3B & SS. But at 23 mil per year seems fairly easy to do.I don’t agree with you about Uggla on a decline (maybe) his glass is half full not empty (but you never have had much for him anyway). I have wanted us to get him for the past two years. One thing for sure we need to stock the farm & get owners to put about 15 mil more per year in our club. ATL would be awesome then, heck it is now!
Going into 2010, I thought Kawakami would have an even better year than 2009. And for a 5th starter that would be great. He had a year of MLB experience to help get used to the American strike zone to help his KK/BB ratio, and he had a fellow countrymen in Saito (You have to figure being the only player who speaks Japanese would have disadvantages. Adding another Japanese pitcher seemed to be beneficial for both players.) I agree that Kawakami was obviously underused. If you look at his numbers as a starter in his MLB seasons (he never did well in the bullpen in either year) just about any team should be more than happy to have him as a 5th starter. The Pirates would love to have him as a 3rd starter. They’ll flip him for peanuts, and as CAC put, they should be disappointed about how they handled Kawakami for more reasons than one.
@2 I’m sure it didn’t help, another year of Medlen being a reliever with a start here and there this all could’ve been avoided, though it’s not for sure
@3 Also I forgot to mention, but Lowe has two more years on his contract
tim,
Yeah, I believe it. I can’t prove it or anything, so it’s just an opinion with no evidence aka bullshit. But I don’t think Medlen would’ve injured his UCL if he’d returned to the bullpen in late June to pitch 1-2 inning stints. May be true, may not be, but it’s what I think.
I’m not going to try to convince anyone it’s true because I can’t and have no problem with others taking the “it was inevitable” stance because that might be true, too.
Grace13,
Scott Boras represents Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Forget about Atlanta locking either one of them up.
Also, I have no idea what this means:
“I don’t agree with you about Uggla on a decline (maybe) his glass is half full not empty (but you never have had much for him anyway).”
Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but don’t forget that the start before he hurt his UCL he got hit on his throwing wrist by a pitch
CAC, I enjoy your writings and following here and reading the different comments of fellow fans. I did not remember if Lowe had one or two more years left. That makes money alot tighter next year to try to sign Hanson and/or Jair even though KK’s 6 mil plus salary will be off the books. Boras is unreal I agree but I thought we had signed a client or two of his in the somewhat recent past so I was hoping we could work with him on these two young men. I guess I formed an opinion you were not an Uggla fan by your column November 15, 2010 “Pursuing Dan Uggla Would Be A Mistake” I don’t think he is exactly a butcher of a defensive player nor over the hill if we try to extend him 4 more years, he’ll be 35 at the end or maybe 36.
It seems to me like Tony Gwynn Jr would have been a perfect 4th OF for the Braves purposes, and he signed with the Dodgers for less than a million dollars. I wish they had spent a little less money on Linebrink, Sherrill, and especially Proctor and had thrown a little at Gwynn.
I think it’s less of a financial issue and more of a Dodgers willing to give him more playing time issue.
@CAC
Even if Heyward would be interested in a contact similar to the Longoria deal, would you still think it’s a bad idea?
@12 That’s pretty extreme, Longoria has the most team friendly contract in baseball, anyone would jump at the chance to give their star rookie that kind of contract
Ryan/12,
No way. If Heyward is willing to sign “The Longoria™” they should do it yesterday.
The thing about the Longoria contract that makes it so sexy is the fact that most of it isn’t guaranteed, it’s pretty much all club options.
Moving forward, Longoria’s contract will be a pristine example to other young players…an example of what NOT to do. The guy has probably left somewhere between 20 and 30 million dollars (over the life of the whole deal) on the table. There’s no way heyward is signing for anything close to what longoria did.
If Heyward stays healthy and puts up something along the lines of a .900OPS with 25HR and 15SB would you offer him the Justin Upton/ Jay Bruce ?
Am I the only one that thinks Freeman may not be the answer at first this year ? Do you think the braves could still make any type of trade for a 4th of / utility player i.e. diory with a stick or brooksy with a glove
I agree that the treatment of Kawakami is pretty disturbing. It makes no sense. It seems to be some emotional act on the part of the front office. What did KK do to inspire this animosity? The whole thing strikes me as being on the Paul Richards level of stupidity and arrogance.
@17 I think the best thing to do now would be wait a couple years to see if he stays healthy, then once he hits arbitration you can go for an extension if he is
@austin/18
Hinske can certainly play first in an emergency if Freeman really doesn’t work out.
I would argue, CAC, that even if there is a cause-and-effect insofar as Medlen starting and then getting hurt, it was probably still worth trying. If there was a given percentage chance that he would get hurt regardless and that was raised some, my feeling would be that finding out (to a given degree of certainty, but getting kind of granular here) whether Medlen could be an effective starter is the right thing to have done.
Obviously, no one’s going to be able to nail down those percentages – so it’s all academic – but with the margins involved and the value that Kris would’ve had as a starter v. reliever…I don’t feel bad about the sequence on the whole. Could’ve done with less moving him back and forth though, that always seems to be a shitstorm.
Completely agree with your analysis on Kawakami. I just hope Atlanta is not becoming a no-go team for Japanese players.
I really enjoy CAC’s work, but the whole Kawakami thing is getting ridiculous. For the millionth time, we know his 2010 FIP, xFIP, and SIERA were all similar to his 2009 numbers. We know that he’s a solid #5 pitcher. There’s no reason to keep bringing this up. It’s beating a dead horse.
The fact is, the team wasn’t winning with Kenshin on the mound, and at the end of the day, all that matters is winning. Why did the team go 5-10 in his starts? Who knows. We’ll never know. But something was wrong, and it would’ve been ridiculously stupid to keep throwing KK out there when the team wasn’t winning with him on the mound.
The Kawakami situation is rather frustrating. In that FG interview with John Coppolella from the other day, we have demonstrable proof that the Braves are sabermetrically articulate, so it’s extremely probable that the team knows Kawakami’s true talent level is somewhere very near to major league average, despite treating him like he’s Oliver Perez. Maybe the scouts are saying something different (not sure why they would) or it is something personal. You’d like to think, with Bobby no longer manager, these personal vendettas would disappear too but I guess not.
The worst of it is, we have no trade leverage with Kawakami. We don’t really have a roster spot for him, and the team doesn’t want him anyways, and every other team knows this. Hence the talk of eating up to $5mm of his remaining contract. It’s a very stupid situation the team has worked themselves into.
Scott C./24,
The fact is, the team wasn’t winning with Kenshin on the mound, and at the end of the day, all that matters is winning.
Results based analysis.
Why did the team go 5-10 in his starts? Who knows. We’ll never know.
Uhh, yeah, yeah we will. They went 5-11 in his starts (including the spot start in September) because they were outscored 55-90 when he started (5-11 pythagenpat record!).
But something was wrong, and it would’ve been ridiculously stupid to keep throwing KK out there when the team wasn’t winning with him on the mound.
Yeah, sure, he’s partially responsible for the 90 runs allowed. 53 of them were charged to him, though he’s not entirely responsible for them because the fielders were awful when he started (something he is not responsible for). This also bit the relievers seeing as they allowed 37 runs in those 16 games. And yes, the crappy relievers had to pitch more when Kawakami started because a) they were usually down when he was pitching for reasons discussed and to be discussed and b) he only averaged 5.33 innings/start, something he is also only somewhat responsible because, again, the fielders were awful.
The 55 runs they scored, well, that simply has next to nothing to do with Kawakami. Yeah, he came to the plate 31 times last year and was pretty bad, but that’s to be expected. The Braves scored 3.43 runs/game when Kawakami started, they scored 4.67 runs/game when he didn’t start. HE DIDN’T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THAT! Taking a player out of the rotation because his team happens to hit like the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates and they otherwise hit like the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays when he starts is dumb.
In the long run, he’s a 4.50-4.70 RA pitcher. In the long run the Braves were a 4.50-4.70 R/G offense, regardless of who is on the mound. In the long run the team will win about as many games as they lose with Kawakami on the mound. Nobody cares about what happened, only what’s going to happen, and .a 500-ish team when Kawakami starts was the least-error projection. Looking at a 16-game sample, noting they’ve gone 5-11 in those games, and choosing to remove a pitcher from the rotation on account of it is colossally dumb.
TCQ/22,
I’m completely with you in that at some point they had to find out if Kris Medlen is capable of starting, 100%. I just don’t think they picked the correct time to find out.
CAC–or anyone else,
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I had the impression that KK became ineffective once he went through a line-up. He would throw three or four strong inns and then implode. I also remember him sitting at 92-93 in the first inn or two, then barely topping out at 89 after a few inns. If this was the case, it could make his overall stats look better than his actual ability to be a quality starter. I was rooting for KK, but he did not look like he could put up quality starts on a consistent basis.
As a coach, if your starter is getting “slapped” in inns 4/5, and loses his ability to get outs, you pull him. If this becomes the norm, you look at other options. Kris Medlen was that other option for the Braves. I’m not trying to argue that Medlen should have replaced KK, but by implying that the Braves simply “removed” a pitcher for his performance is discounting the fact that the Braves also evaluated the performance of the replacing pitcher, or–by the end of the season–pitchers.
@Coop
From looking at BR Kawakami was pretty much the same pitcher through innings 1-5, with the first probably being his worst. If anything he’s shown to get slightly better afte the first by getting control down and walking fewer batters. 2010 showed him having a poor 1st and 3rd, but that’s in only 15 innings each.
Kawakami was(is) not a bad pitcher. He had some horrible luck in run support and Bobby lost faith in using him. It’s just unfortunate that he’ll abandon someone who was doing fine but being unlucky, while at other times he’d stick with someone too long who was just being bad.
Also I think the Medlen injury was mostly inevitable. Some pitchers who had great mechanics simply get hurt while others with terrible mechanics can last surprising amounts of time. I hear tons of reports about people just waiting for Lincecum to blowup and through like 1000 innings he’s held together extremely well. I don’t doubt people saying he will get injured, but at this point that’s going to be less about his mechanics and more into the generic “pitchers get hurt sometimes”.
Thank you for the first “sane” comments about Kawakami in well over a year! I might add to “below average starter” ….”with potential to be a slightly above-average workhorse”. A difficultly I noticed – and I wish I could find something to back this up or refute – is that he too often fell-behind and always had a high pitch count. Batters simply had way too many “looks” at his stuff. But…you were so on the money with the Braves mistreatment of him.
CAC,
When you say “the Braves” and “they” misused Kawakami, is there any reason to say it was not Bobby Cox, the dearly departed? Maybe also McDowell. I would suppose after the suspected but not detailed floare up by Kawakami at going down to re stretch out there could have been other FO guys who got aggravated or weary.
I think having Kawakaml at Mississippi stretched out and ready to go as a 7th starter (partly because I would want some inning limits o Beachy and Minor) gives us more value than trading him and eating enough salary to make him cost 2 mill or less to the acquiring team.
Wondering if anybody has run a listing to see if Kawakami had an overabundance of “Sunday lineups” with Ross, Diory, whoever, playing (or an overabundance of opposing lefthanded starters). The runs scored by ATL is shocking.
On extending Uggla,
If he will take the 4 year 48 he turned down from the Marlins (which, as I understand, includes this upcoming year), maybe it is not insane. Otherwise, it is insane. However, for the FO to posture and PR to make him and some moronic fans happy “that we aren’t going to have just a one year rental”, then I am fine with the talk. Just don’t actually do it.
CAC,
When you say Harrilchak is the best outfield prospect are you projecting him over Lipka or considering Lipka as a shortstop until he proves he can’t stay there?
In regards to Uggla hitting at Turner Field; I have no idea why he has hit so well at Turner Field. Keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Career stats at Turner Field:
Plate Appearances-199 OPS-1.0551
Career stats at hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park:
PA-196 OPS-.628
CAC,
What’s the Braves’ deal with Boras? You’re very sure we won’t get an extension from either of his clients. Why not? Knowing nothing now, I’d love to read a fleshed out post about it. Or, if you’ve already written one, post a link?
Thanks for all the good work.
I also thought that the treatment of Kawakami last year was scandalous and short-sighted. But it seemed to me that it was all Bobby Cox. He was the one making the decisions not to use him even in blowout games. I don’t see how anyone else in the organization was involved in this.
“Looking at a 16-game sample, noting they’ve gone 5-11 in those games, and choosing to remove a pitcher from the rotation on account of it is colossally dumb.”
Braves went 5-11 in KK’s starts, and 13-1 in Medlen’s starts. There may be room for debate over how KK was handled, but given the facts of what occurred, which (for me) carry more weight than the theory of what might have occurred, I’d say that “colossally dumb” is just a bit strong.
Cliff,
I do think Bobby was mostly responsible for this. Regarding OF prospects, I’ve still got Lipka as a SS/2B.
Edward,
It’s not just the Braves. Boras wants all of his clients to test Free Agency, so he discourages them from signing extensions.
After watching Mycal Jones play a fair bit I have to say that though he’s got decent skills in the infield he could be a prime candidate to switch to CF. His B.J. Upton like skill set coupled with a great attitude could make him a prime candidate for a position switch.
He’s switching to 2B.
From what I hear Boras does what they want, and if they want to sign an extension he allows it, I think Carlos Gonzalez is represented by Boras and the Rockies are trying to lock him up (for some reason)
I know it probably sounds a little Tony LaRussa-esque, but I like the idea of starting Kawakami as the #5 starter for 4 or 5 innings, then letting Beachy or Minor finish the last 4 or 5 innings. Yes, we’re using two starters, but the pen gets a rest and the #5 guy and #6 guy stay fresh and don’t pitch too many innings. Either could still be available for long relief if necessary.
Ultimately Boras does have to do what the clients want or they would fire him. Players also tend to seek him out because he knows how to maximize their value. I do not have exact numbers, but I am fairly confidant in saying that FAs are able to secure larger contracts than simply getting extensions.
Boras does what he can to maximize the player’s contract size. His money is based of the contract they sign so it is an incentive for it to be as large as possible. If Hanson came to Boras and said “work out and extension”, then he would do it. The players that go to Boras typically are willing to let him do his thing though.
Players don’t switch to Scott Boras so they can work out an extension.
Great post. Thanks
“I don’t blame Kawakami for wanting to stay in the U.S., he’s perfectly capable of contributing to a MLB team.”
He would be a fourth or fifth starter on almost every team.
“I only hope they’re kicking themselves for the correct reason: not signing Kawakami to a 3-year, $23 million contract, but squandering an asset.”
Absolutely. Great stuff. I’m hoping we can trade Lowe and allow KK to become the fifth starter again, but there is a slim chance of that happening because of Lowe’s contact. But you never know
If the Braves were to sign Uggla to an extension now, what would you be okay with (upper limit)? 3/30? 4/36?
I’d never get my expert opinion from Keith Law on anything. What does he know about Dan Uggla into his mid-30′s? Didn’t realize he has a crystal ball.
Uggla is consistent and a hard worker. I mean the guy made himself into an all star from his meager beginnings as a Rule 5 draftee. That tells me that aside from a bad injury (a risk to the best player down to the worst) he’s going to maintain his skill level into his mid 30′s.
He’s immediately the Braves best power threat, and has the ability to move to the OF or 3B as he ages if that allows the Braves to sign a younger player to play 2B down the road. So signing him to a 5 year deal is not going to kill the Braves. They got good value out of Chipper Jones into his late 30′s and he WAS injured a lot. Uggla doesn’t have that history of injuries.
I’d wait to sign extensions for McCann or Heyward because McCann is not going to leave Atlanta thru free agency (he’s got Chipper Jones type of loyalty) and Heyward can wait until Jones’ contract comes off the books. No need to give him a raise and hamstring yourself in other areas, until after 2012. Prado on the other hand needs to be signed now if he will. I think his value is only going to go up, and he’s more likely to take a bigger offer in free agency because he’s not been paid so far like McCann. And he’s not been treated as well by the Braves. It took them forever to allow Prado to start over Kelly Johnson despite his struggles and now he’s seen as a pinball position wise. Sign Prado now and talk to McCann and Heyward after Jones retires.
Uggla is consistent and a hard worker. I mean the guy made himself into an all star from his meager beginnings as a Rule 5 draftee. That tells me that aside from a bad injury (a risk to the best player down to the worst) he’s going to maintain his skill level into his mid 30′s.
Wow. You think players decline because they don’t work hard enough? You’re completely lost, dude.
Would the Braves really have Schafer open up as their backup OF? With the amount of time hes missed the past couple of years I would think he would benefit much more from getting regular at bats in the minors and in a best case scenario tear up the minors and be ready to get promoted if Mclouth continues to struggle. I would think that if its an internal option(which it appears it probably will be) Matt Young seems much more likely.
Joe, I don’t think you’re completely lost. Players often have a bad season blamed on not working hard enough in the previous off-season. Teams have gone so far as to put weight clauses into contracts.
Inversely, players get praised for their work ethic (both during the season and in the offseason). Clemens, Smoltz, Lowe all come to mind. Obviously, a players skills are going to deteriorate at they age, but hard work might work to curtail these effects at least temporarily, no? Just MO
Uggla is not good defensively. He will not be good defensively anywhere, especially as he gets older. He is not going to get better offensively. To sign him to an extension, only to move him is a tacit admission of the mistake of the contract. Uggla will not be as valuable at LF or 1b.
Glavine, Smoltz to an extent Maddux, Andruw Jones are all players the Braves effectively let walk because the price to keep them was not going to be worth the production they give (Maddux was still useful but he made like 15mil in that Arb case). Signing long term contracts to players who are on the verge of decline is what cripples teams.Uggla in 2011/12 will probably be worth the money he’d be paid, but the Uggla of 2013+ may not. How many people think Chipper should retire because he’s not as good now as he used to be? If Uggla has that kind of decline, he actually won’t be useful. How many years of a declined Uggla is acceptable for an extra year or maybe two of a decent one?