Baseball America’s Top 10 Braves Prospects
December 18, 2010 at 11:54 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis, Prospects
Note: I’m very pleased to announce that Kevin Orris is going to be contributing to CAC regularly. You can read more about Kevin at the bottom of this page and see some of his other work at Baseball Insiders. It’s great to have another writer on board, especially one as well qualified as Kevin. Enjoy.
When I first agreed to write for CAC, I couldn’t decide what topics to cover. After debating a review of the Andy Marte trade of 2005 and Kris Medlen’s rehab, I decided that I shall write about what I know best… prospects.
For those who don’t know me or haven’t read my previous work, I love writing about the future. That being said, Baseball America revealed their “Top 10 Atlanta Braves Prospects” this week, and I can’t help but react.
As you may remember, Peter released his list of the Braves top prospects earlier this off-season, and it’s fairly similar to BA’s.
I think most would agree that Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, and Randall Delgado are the top three guys in the system, with Teheran also falling in the top five across baseball. However, after the trio, there are a handful of debatable arms to decide between, in addition to a couple of middle infielders.
The biggest difference between the two rankings is Edward Salcedo (4th on CAC, NR on BA), a SS/3B whom the Braves signed from the Dominican Republic earlier this year. Salcedo hit just .225 this season, striking out 75 times in 304 at-bats, while adding 14 stolen bases.
As you can see in this video, Salcedo has a very long swing, which he often over-exerts and his pitch selection isn’t the best. Although this is a small sample size, this video tells us a lot about the issues that he’s endured. He get fooled easily when faced with breaking balls low and away, often swinging and following through so far that he spins around.
I’d like to believe that he qualified for BA’s top 15 prospects, because he is built for his age and is expected to improve tremendously in 2011 in his first full season in the United States. It’s important to keep in mind that he’s only 19-years-old and will become increasingly stronger as most International signees do.
While he played all but one game at shortstop this year, I’d like to believe that he’s going to move to third base in the future. Although he has speed, with an increase in size, his range will become limited and he has an above average arm that will allow him to play the hot corner.
Personally, I’d like to see him make an attempt at playing third base this year, especially if Salcedo and Matthew Lipka, the Braves first round pick from 2010, end up on the same roster.
2011 is going to be important for Salcedo if he wants to remain a top prospect, because another year below the “Mendoza line” isn’t going to cut it in Rome. Expect him to begin the season in Rome and if he does experience success, a potential promotion to Myrtle Beach.
Overall, BA’s list speaks volumes about the Braves knack for finding and developing pitching considering they project the 2014 rotation to be Tommy Hanson, Teheran, Delgado, Mike Minor, and Jair Jurrjens, with Craig Kimbrel closing out games. Teheran is as close to a sure thing as you can get with a pitching prospect, while some still have their doubts with Delgado, but that’s a topic for another day.
With all of that being said, I’d love to hear your thoughts on Salcedo and the Baseball America list. Leave your thoughts in the comments below, or shoot me an e-mail at KevinOrris@CapitolAvenueClub.com.
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Kevin Orris, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: New at CAC: Baseball America's Top 10 Braves Prospects — http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3332 by @KevinOrris [...]
From the faithful followers of this blog, let me be the first to welcome you aboard! Looking forward to future analyses of the other top prospects.
No Kimbrel on CAC list?
Kevin: welcome to the self-proclaimed “Most Interesting Blog in the World”. Are we assume that the police often question you, just because they find you interesting?
On a serious note, it seems like a good idea for the long-term health of the club for Salcedo to get some reps at third base. The folks at the top of the organization need to start planning for life after Chipper (if they haven’t already), and as such they need to determine if Salcedo can be the guy.
Somewhat related note: I made a Braves prospect map because I’m incredibly bored.
First off, I appreciate your comments and couldn’t be happier than to join Peter here at CAC.
KW – I personally would have Kimbrel right around No. 8. The great thing with the Braves system is that there are so many great arms, that many of them are interchangeable. That being said, just a couple of bad starts can really alter the rankings, so I think that it’s hard to set a concrete top ten.
Steve – I couldn’t agree more. The front office has done a good job at keeping the future in mind, and I think they like what they’ve got. The team has, thankfully, resisted to trade any of the top three guys in favor of a bat as a short term solution.
I don’t think that anyone really knows how long Chipper is going to continue to play for, because Chipper would be more vocal about it if even he knew. He’s a very stand up guy, and won’t be afraid to admit when it’s time to leave the game.
Peter – The prospect map is awesome. It really shows how dedicated the Braves are to the SE region of the US and the knack for signing Latin American players over the past few years. I personally, don’t know of a place that lists all of the regions of the Braves scouts, but I’d be interested to see that compared to this map.
It’s interesting to look towards 2014′s pitching staff.
At that point, you’d also think that Heyward, Freeman, and McCann would all be having great careers.
That said, looking at the 2011 season, would it be too much to predict 20 HR+, 80 RBI+ from Heyward and Freeman? And also, I’d like to hear your take on a hot topic (though, I’m unsure if you’ve already talked about it) that being Nate McLouth or Jordan Schafer (or someone else) being our opening day CF.
I plan on writing more in-depth on Freeman in the near future, but I think those numbers are too high for him. While he’s a great contact hitter, I’m not sure that he’s got 20+ HR power at this point.
There’s no doubt in my mind that McLouth is higher on the depth chart than Schafer at this point. Unfortunately the Braves are strapped for cash at this point in the off-season, and although we would all like them to do something, they’re going to roll the dice with those two for now.
McLouth is already a sunk cost, and can’t get any worse than last year (let’s hope), so I doubt that they’re going to try to put any additional money into center field.
I’ll agree that Freeman won’t hit 20 HR at this moment, but I would expect him to produce 45 to 50 XBH this season.
I’m actually curious what conditioning program he’s on this offseason and if he’s already working with Larry Parrish on his swing?
Welcome to the site. Peter always writes great stuff and I’m sure you will do the same. The prospect map is great. Thanks. I like Salcedo a lot and I ranked him eighth on my list.
MaddBen7 – I completely agree with your assessment on the XBH. He’s got an incredible bat, but he’s still growing. He just turned 21 this year, so he’s going to continue to add muscle to turn those doubles and triples into home runs.
I haven’t heard much about his conditioning program, but I’ll do some research and see what I can find.
Braves24 – Glad to be here. I couldn’t be more excited to write about the Braves. I’d say that Salcedo fits anywhere from 5-10 in the rankings.
Great first piece Kevin, it’s awesome to have another great baseball mind contributing to this site now. I know Kansas City is widely considered to have the best farm in baseball , but in terms of just pitching would you say the Braves have the best group right now?
I’ve never seen Sucre play, but I was very surprised to see him listed over Bethancourt for best defensive catcher. I have seen Christian play and have been very impressed with him defensively. It’s tough to believe the Braves have a better catcher than him in the system.
I’d love to see some kind of Sucre vs. Bethancourt defensive breakdown from someone who’s seen both of them play.
Yeah gotta imagine Freeman will develop some power eventually, the dude is huge
Welcome aboard, Kevin. I was pretty surprised to see Salcedo NR on BA’s list but your analysis made me feel better. I think he just had a rough year. It was pretty eventful for him after all.
I think the Braves have an excellent group of pitchers, as do the Rangers and Royals. Since Feliz spent a full year in the majors, he’s no longer considered a prospect and Martin Perez had a terrible season, so I think that eliminates the Rangers from the top spot.
The Royals have Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, and John Lamb as their top three – each stellar prospects. Julio Teheran is the best pitching prospect in baseball, but Montgomery has a slight edge on Randall Delgado at this point. Either way, you can make a case for both the Royals and Braves, but I’m biased.
Eliot – I’ve yet to see either play in person, but I’m looking forward to reading John Sickels and Baseball America’s scouting reports on them next year. Both of those two sources are very reliable and would be able to provide more insight than myself.
If any of you guys ever have topics that you would like me to cover, don’t hesitate to shoot me an e-mail at KevinOrris@capitolavenueclub.com. Like I mentioned before, I’ll be posting about Freeman among other things in the near future.
The Royals also have Jake Odorizzi now from the Brewers.
As an aside, nice to see Joe Simpson make it into an espn.com article, albeit for having the worst average for a left handed hitter against right handed pitching for the last 35 years.
Yeah, I wondered why Salcedo wasn’t there when the AJC published the BA rankings. A lot of the talk I had heard when Salcedo was signed was people really liked him and were conjecturing that the Braves expected him to take over 3B not too long after Chipper retires. I was going to question Carroll about it until I looked up his stats from rookie ball.
And based on what Kevin says, he does have issues with his swing. Sounds like there’s good reason to expect that will improve to some degree as he matures and gets instruction. I had gotten the impression he was farther along when we signed him, and hadn’t seen him or really heard anything about him since.
The real question is: Does Peter get to be lazy on days that you blog, Kevin?
Disregard my comment from last night – the Royals now have the best pitching prospects in baseball with the addition of Odorizzi.
We don’t have a specific schedule set or anything, so don’t worry about his work going away. This way, it makes the off-season more fun with two voices and provides regular and consistent content.
So, KC and the Braves have the best pitching prospects? Moore is definitely following the Braves blueprint out there, so that’s no surprise.
The Central should be very interesting. At least Cincy, the Cards and the Brew Crew should be legit contenders. Could this be an offseason where the Yankees miss the Series and come up pretty much empty in the offseason? Sign of the times now that big George is no longer there?
CAC/Kevin
How much better is Julio Teheran’s potential compared to Odalis Perez at a similar point? There were numerous reports when Odalis was still a prospect about how he was going to become the next Pedro but it didn’t work out so well?
If you guys were in Frank’s shoes and had the opportunity to get Zack G, which of the current prospects would you trade? Delgado+Filak+JJ+KK?
GT Alum, don’t put too much stock in Salcedo’s first year in A ball. Look at the horrible defensive numbers for Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter when they first spent a season in the Sally. Or Jeter’s offensive numbers in his first pro season, and those are without Salcedo’s adjustment to a new country. While he had a bad year numbers wise in Rome, it was just his first year in pro baseball, after a couple years in limbo because of the age stuff. It’ll be interesting to see how both he and Bethancourt do back in Rome next spring, and how fast they can make a move for Lynchburg.
The Yankees spent all of their energy focusing on a washed up shortstop.
Perez was always highly touted, but never to the level that Teheran currently is. Perez only cracked the Baseball American Top 100 once, and that was in 1999 (#38), a year after he posted a 3.56 ERA between Double and Triple-A. Teheran’s numbers are much better than those, and many currently see him as the top pitching prospect in baseball. Let’s hope that it plays out that way.
Thanks Kevin
Essentially we have Hudson & Lowe around for another 2 seasons at roughly $24mil ($15 + $9) per season and by 2013 season we should have a rotation that should contain Hanson, Teheran, Minor, JJ (Arb3) and a combination of Delgado or Beachy which could cost less than $15m?
Who do you see as having more development potential between Vizcaino and Delgado as a SP? From on-line reports the former throws harder with a great curve and Delgado has more control?
MLBTR is reporting that we just signed Yohan Flande out of the phillies’ system. Kevin/Peter: any thoughts on his potential or where he fits with Atlanta? I understand that a team can never have too much pitching, but the MLBTR folks are saying that Flande is either a left-handed specialist or a back-of-the-rotation starter. Therefore, given the current makeup of the braves’ roster, it’s hard to see Flande fits. “organizational depth”?
Roger,
That starting staff is awesome, and if it were to pan out the way we see it right now, would be one of the best in the league. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always work out that way, however, we can hope for the best for now.
I think Vizcaino has more potential than Delgado, but that’s not to say that Delgado doesn’t have upside. He’s got some good stuff, but I think he’s going to end up as a #3.
Kevin
Yep, you just never know how these prospects will pan out. If only Betemit, Marte and O Perez panned out the way they suppose to have?
With more advanced scouting methods at least we are getting closer to predicting the potential e.g. Andrus & Feliz. Most of the top prospects these days tend to work out ok so our 2013+ rotation should be in good hands. However the quality of position players must be of concern with Braves’ management. Do the likes of Pastornicky & Harrichak have the potential to give us a suprice similar to Beachy?
Steve,
Yep, org guy. Though a nice piece to have.
Roger/25,
I’m just an everyday idiot, but I’ll almost guarantee either Derek Lowe or Jair Jurrjens is no longer a Brave come 2012. Hudson, Hanson, with Minor, Teheran and Delgado able to fill the remaining 3 spots, or at least 2 of the 5 starting spots. That leaves just one more, and if Lowe can pitch strong this season, I think the one year remaining for $15m becomes much easier to move in what looks to be a very weak starting pitching market. If Lowe is still unmovable, then Jair Jurrjens becomes the odd man out (ala Vazquez last winter) being due another raise as a second year arb and with one less year of cheap control.
Mr Sanchez/23,
Not saying that his struggles last year are indicative that he’s not going to live up to expectations – just that it could be a reason why he wasn’t listed in the top 10, even though Lipka was there.
Also, I had gotten the impression when he signed him that he could be ready for the majors by 2012 or ’13. He could still have an outside shot at 2013 if he makes significant adjustments and tears it up the next 2 years, but sometime in 2014 seems much more likely. Not that that’s a bad thing – he’ll only be 22 at the beginning of the 2014 season. They can’t all be Heyward.
After watching Freddie I can really only compare him, development wise, to Joey Votto. Came up with doubles power and turned it into hr’s. Votto always had the average and this was the year that ALL that power caught up. Would you agree with this assessment in comparing Freddie and Votto? With that being said I also see 20+ hr’s from Freeman as way to high, but I see Heyward as being able to hit 30, barring a healthy thumb….thoughts on Heyward’s production increase this year?
Oh, btw, it took me until now to catch it, but I believe Myrtle Beach should be Lynchburg. That’s going to take some getting used to.
David/32,
LOL. Just thought how crazy people on the AJC or Bowman’s blog would go if you posted that comparison either of those places.
I would not mind at all seeing Freeman go the way of Votto. And I do figure now, looking back on it, that it’d be a stretch to give Freeman 20 HRs in his rookie season. 12-15 is still really good, regardless.
GT/34
Haha
Now we obviously know the end product of Votto, and we obviously do not know the end product of Freeman; that is as close to a comparison as I think there could be. I say let them go crazy, let’s just hope it’s over a soon to be Votto……
Ankiel signs with Nationals to compete for the LF job – Am I the only one who has no idea what these guys are doing?
GT Alum,
I’m just surprised Dayton Moore didn’t go after him again.
It’s hard to imagine the Braves competing in a few years unless they start investing in the farm again. Continually being 30th in draft spending isn’t going to cut it.
Having said that, welcome to CAC, Kevin, and thanks for an interesting first blog. Here’s hoping both Freeman and Salcedo pan out, because this org is ridiculously thin on position players.
First off, great read on the prospects. Thanks!
Guys, any chance the Braves make a run at Jeff Keppinger as the utility IF? Astros just signed Bill Hall to play 2B.
Mr. Sanchez/30
It would be great to see Lowe pitch like the Sept version for a majority of 2011, if that was to happen and his slider keeps getting Ks then we should be able to trade his salary and may get a couple of prospects back. You are correct that next year’s FA SP options are limited and Lowe would be a good option for a few teams.
JJ being a Scott Boras client will have to be considered in a trade after the conclusion to season 2011 as we head into arb3. I do hope JJ & Lowe pitch to best case scenario and we end up having 2 valuable assets that could return other missing pieces.
If Freeman produces like Votto then we will be set for years to come.
Dave/39
While the spending figures doesn’t look great our system is doing OK. The international signings bonus payment are not included in that draft spending so what we paid to get Teheran, Delgado, Salcedo, R Lopez(now traded) and C Perez allows the Braves to have a pitching rich system.
If only we didn’t waste that high rd2 draft pick in 07 on J fields and instead picked Stanton!! Does anyone have a time machine? (Please allow me to indulge for a minute)
Brian B/40
I was wondering the exact same thing.
Also read Astros only want 1 mid level prospect for him
Kudos to Dayton Moore for building a killer farm system, but, as good as the draft picks have been, the major league signings have been equally bad. How the fuck can anyone rationalize signing both Melky Cabrera and Frenchy in the same offseason? On the days that they’re both in the lineup, the royals will be running out at least two below-replacement-level hitters. Maybe it doesn’t matter in the short term, but why spend the money?
In the same vein, how does Stan kasten rationalize signing ankiel?
I say go after Keppinger. Good bat for a UT player. Crappy glove at SS, but Gonzalez is both extremely durable and competent with the glove at SS.
Oberholtzer for Keppinger? (think BA WAY over ranked Oberholtzer, BTW)
I agree on Oberholtzer – now’s the perfect time to move him. I’m a big Keppinger fan, so I wouldn’t mind adding him. Call me crazy, but I believe that Willie Bloomquist is a free agent, and I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot in Spring Training.
Kasten is no longer with Washington, hence the reason they’ve probably gone crazy with the signings this off-season. There have been rumors of Kasten purchasing the Houston Astros, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen any time soon.
I just wrote an article about Freeman here (http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3338), but I didn’t mention the Votto thing at all. Personally, I think Votto has exceeded expectations to this point, so hopefully Freeman does the same.
Would the thinking on Keppinger be that he could play SS for a couple of days if necessary and is a better bat than Diory (plus more defensive flexibility), but if Gonzalez was out for an extended period of time, call up Diory?
Kasten is no longer in DC? Hmmm…I guess I haven’t been paying attention. Shame on you, Washington nationals, for letting him go….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5607926
That’s the story about Kasten. Maury Brown (bizofbaseball.com) and I agreed at the Winter Meetings that he would make a great commissioner, a role that I’m confident Stan would want, but all of the important people love Bud Selig, so don’t count on it.
Mr Sanchez,
Odds are that the braves will still have both Jurrjens and Lowe going into 2012. Lowe is owed $15 million in 2012 and jurrjens isn’t eligible for FA until 2014. Lowe’s contract will probably remain untradeable, as he’s not getting any younger. Jurrjens will certainly still be with them unless they decide they can get a huge return.