Framing Freddie Freeman
December 21, 2010 at 12:15 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves, Farm System, Interview, Player Analysis, Prospects
The day that I agreed to start writing for CAC, I knew that I’d be writing about Freddie Freeman within a week. It wasn’t because I have a man crush, obsession, or anything of the sort. Rather, it’s simply because he’s the one that everyone wants to know about.
Does he have power? Is he the next Jason Heyward or Andy Marte? Is he smart? What will his batting average be? Can he hold his own in the field? How’s his makeup?
These are all questions that I’ve been asked this off-season regarding Freeman from a variety of baseball fans through e-mail and Twitter (@kevinorris). While don’t I claim to have all of the answers, or any of them for that matter, the least that I can do is offer my opinion and insight.
Interview
For starters, I interviewed Freeman in August of 2009, shortly after his promotion to Double-A Mississippi. You can listen to 12 minute interview by clicking here (I highly recommend that you do so, especially the 22 seconds).
In my opinion, the interview went well. Freeman opened up more than most prospects do, and it’s important to remember that he was still just 19-years-old.
I’d like to preface my thoughts with the following: fans have a tendency to get their hopes up regarding prospects, but often times the numbers don’t translate right away. Just look at Jason Heyward. My goal isn’t to raise or lower expectations, rather provide a realistic opinion of what the future holds.
Freeman has continued to improve throughout his minor league career, and will likely fall in Baseball America’s Top 15 prospects next season. He hit for a career high .319 average in Triple-A Gwinnett last year, and we can assume that the Atlanta Front Office will give him the opportunity to start at first base next season.
Build
From a physical stand point, he still has plenty of room to grow. He currently stands 6’5”, weighing 225 lbs. He’s clearly not the fastest player (13 career SB on 26 attempts), but he’s been doing his best to build muscle.
Hitting
In our interview, Freeman calls himself a power hitter, so I’ve got no reason to believe that it’s the area of his game that he feels is his strong suit. All scouting reports indicate that he has the potential to his 30 home runs/season in his career, but I wouldn’t count on many more than that.
His batting average has improved throughout his career, and shouldn’t be much of an issue translating to the big leagues. Although he admits that he has a tendency to be aggressive at the plate, many young hitters struggle with walk rates in their first few seasons, simply because the quality of pitching is that much better.
Defense
Defensively, Freeman is sound at first base, and although he has a great arm, it’s often an unnecessary tool for a first baseman.
Overall
Overall, I think expectations are pretty high right now. Many fans expect him to hit over .300 with 20 HR and 80 RBI. To be honest, I think a more realistic line would be .280, 15 HR and an unpredictable amount of RBI (as with every player).
I think the closest comparison that could be made between Freeman and a current player is Billy Butler, a first baseman with the Kansas City Royals. Last year, Butler his .318 with 15 HR and 78 RBI, almost identical to what Freeman did in Gwinnett. In Butler’s rookie season he hit .292 with 8 HR and 52 RBI in 360 PA at the age of 21… the same age that Freddie will be entering next season.
Final Thoughts
I think that we’ve got something special on our hands, but let’s be sure to give it time. Leave your thoughts on Freeman in the comments below, or send me an e-mail at KevinOrris@CapitolAvenueClub.com. I’m excited to see your predictions for Freeman for next season and the years to come.
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Kevin
I think the ‘.300 and 20 Hrs’ section of fans are a little too optimistic. Pujols ‘only’ managed a .329 BA in his rookie year so I think .300 is a little out.
There have been a couple of analysis of Freeman that compares him with an upper ceiling of Ryan Klesko? I have not seen too much of Freeman but will he project to have a similar career in your opinion?
I would think any BA over .270 would be acceptable and maybe .350 or .360 as OBP? 10 to 15 Hrs, the key would be how he handles the elite pitchers in the NL East, hopefully Fredi G will manage the process and protect his confidence to a certain degree.
There really isn’t a lot of protection for Freeman apart from Hinske at the moment so Freeman will probably have some tough nights as part of his learning process.
Roger – thanks for your comment. I agree that fans are probably too optimistic. Fans are often frustrated with production from rookies, but the Braves have done a great job transitioning them from the minors to majors in recent years. Hanson and Heyward have both been exceptional since making the step up at such a young age.
Also, I mentioned Heyward in the article. I don’t view him as a disappointment in the slightest sense, but I think fans had higher expectations of him from a batting average and power point of view.
I like the projection and the comp. Butler has been worth -0.2, 2.6, and 3.4 fWAR in his first three seasons. His first season’s line was .275/.324/.400 for a .318 wOBA, which I think is reasonable for Freeman next season, but he lost some value due to DHing and being a slightly below-average fielder when he was there. Though I think the offensive line is similar to what we can expect, I’ve heard enough rave reviews about his defense to think he can add another win to Butler’s totals. That doesn’t make him fantastically valuable next season, but I don’t think you can expect too much from him in his rookie season at such a young age. After that, I think he can be a 3-5 win player, which should be just fine.
From a defensive perspective, Freeman is a big step up. I think 3-5 WAR is a reasonable expectation.
Fun Fact – Billy Butler was second in baseball in doubles in 2009 with 51.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Kevin Orris. Kevin Orris said: Want my thoughts on Freddie Freeman? Check out my latest article for @CapitolAvenue here: http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3338 [...]
Who do you think accumulates more WAR in 2011? Freeman or McLouth?
Ryan/5
My opinion (Maybe wishful thinking) is McLouth will have a bounce back season. Probably not enough to be his 2008 self but similar to 2009. I think he will have limited time to prove himself before Braves make a decision.
Kevin, will you or Peter be doing a piece on Venters & Kimbrell as while all indicators are that we are set, are we being too optimistic with Kimbrell’s control issues & possible over use of Venters in 2010?
Let’s get down here: calling Freeman “the next Joey Votto” is an inordinate amount of pressure for this guy. Please…let’s all ratchet down our ex
Let’s get down here: calling Freeman “the next Joey Votto” is an inordinate amount of pressure for this guy. Please…let’s all ratchet down our expectations. If he posts a line of 280/330/450 we’ll be in good shape. He’s a rookie, and his minor league numbers are promising. That’s all we know at this point, and we won’t know anything more than that until he’s had 600 at bats against MLB pitching.
Thanks for the write-up Kevin! Freeman would seem to be in a little bit better situation than Heyward was this past year. With Uggla in the middle of the order this year, he can take his cuts in the lower part of the batting order and not have to be “the guy” night in and night out.
Heyward had a really remarkable rookie year despite injuries – but some fans expected too much too soon. Those expectations were shaped in part by injuries to and the struggles of other players in the lineup. Hopefully Freeman won’t have to deal with that as much.
I look forward to listening to the interview.
Kevin,
Presumably, Freeman will make the big league club out of Spring Training. At that point, would he be the ugliest player in MLB? Or does Coco Crisp still have him beat? Burnett?
If the comp is Billy Butler at the plate (cause he’s a DH defensively), I’ll take it. He’s a very good hitter, and while not a big HR guy he still produces. I’m of the opinion Freeman’s power improves to a Chipper level going forward (a couple years in the 30s, maybe even one or two in the 40s, but mostly around 25), just based on his big frame.
Also Kevin, I don’t think I’d say Heyward underperformed. When healthy, he was dominant at the plate and everything expected (at least to me). The only reason his numbers are somewhat less than impressive are the drop they took when he kept playing through the thumb injury. Take out that month or so, and his numbers at the plate improve immensely.
KW,
I actually think FF looks a lot like a young Troy Glaus, for whatever that’s worth..
I got to see a fair bit of Freddie when he was in Rome and Gwinett and I think your comparison to Billy Butler is a pretty good one. James Loney is another player who comes to mind. I think he can develop a solid 20-30 home run swing if he adds some muscle, he hits for more power in BP though many players do, but it could be a sign that he’s working on his power stroke.
Appreciate the analysis and hope to hear more from you soon.
Loney never hit more than 11 homers in a season at the minors, not sure if that’s really a fair comparison.
In the two seasons where FF stayed in the same spot in the minors for the entire year (08,10), he had an OPS of nearly .900 both years. I think once FF settles down at any given level, he starts to find his groove. Billy Butler is a decent comparison hitting wise I would say. But the cherry on top with Freddie is of course his glove.
11/KW
I think Yunel “El Chupacabra” Escobar is probably the favorite, at the moment leading all MLB infielders in scaring children and horrifying women.
[...] today Kevin has a post up over at the Braves blog Capitol Avenue Club talking about Freddie Freeman, who will most likely be manning first base for the Braves next [...]
I always thought FF looked like Buzz from home alone.
17/Daniel,
Yes! That is perfect, and also seasonally relevant!
Our 1B last year posted a line of 248/346/422 with 23 HRs and 35 doubles. While he and Hinske likely won’t put up as many HRs, I think they should be able to at least match that OPS.
Freeman should give us defense that’s closer to what we got from Lee than what we got from Glaus, so I would say they’ll be a net improvement from the production at that position last year. That’s good enough for me, especially since the Braves should be better at several other positions as well.
it’s remarkable how many people expect him to come out and produce like heyward just because he’s now the organization’s top MLB-ready prospect. i think his line is in the 275/345/425 range. per the butler reference, i don’t expect more than gap power the first couple of years.
16/viva
lol, I invented a drink on my honeymoon affectionately called “la special de chupacabra”
17/Daniel
lol [again] Yes, that is the PERFECT comparison! Well done, sir. I will reference my source when I use that in the future.
Steve/8
I wasn’t calling him the next Votto, simply comparing the type of player he was to the type of player Freeman is. Votto didn’t come out as an MVP, but a work in progress. I believe his hitting will be there from the beginning of his career, more xbh’s will follow, then power will follow later in his career. Just my opinion from what I have seen and heard. Not sure if you were referring to what I wrote on the other post or if you have heard others making that comparison.
When I had originally made my reference to Heyward and Freeman hitting 20 HRs and 80 RBIs, I was more thinking along the lines of mainstays in the lineup. I’d take 20 and 80 from any hitter in the lineup and think that they could have had an almost complete season (I think I worded that well enough for the more extreme stat-heads). I’d love it if 2 or more in our lineup were capable of doing that consistently. And, to be honest, we could have three next year in Uggla, McCann and Heyward.
I live in Rome and Freeman is the real deal. Great gap hitter. he lead the team in triples and as you mentioned he is not extremely fast. High hopes and great success for a great young man.
I think the .280/15/??? is about right. The homers may be a bit high and the RBi will be low as long as he hits in the #8 hole. In time, he’ll be a .310/25/100 guy for Atlanta while challenging for the Gold Glove every year. He’s an asset, one we should enjoy watching for the next 10 years.
I like the Billy Butler comparison. I think you’re a good fit for CAC, Kevin. That’s a well thought out article with sound reasoning, two things I have come to expect (and always receive) from CAC. Keep up the great work, guys.
Oblivion had terrible cmabot mechanics. There were hardly any epic battles. The real draw for Skyrim is its scope. Finding things, being immersed in a huge world, that kind of thing. It’s not going to be that intense, at least from what I’ve seen and experienced with Oblivion.Dark Souls is extremely immersive as well, but in a different manner. It has a depressing vibe that draws you in, and the cmabot is near perfection. Super intense, super difficult Two different games. Buy both.
You see this yet Peter?
http://failblog.org/2010/12/22/epic-fail-photos-poll-fail/#comments
I hadn’t.
My snark is so misunderstood :).
lol who the hell takes a picture of their computer screen instead of using the print-screen key?
I defended your honor a bit in the comment thread, Peter. Primarily for the novelty of providing third-tier snark, but still.
He must have been using a Mac.
I don’t use or particularly like Mac’s, so I have to ask: can you really not get a screencap with one?
I’m almost certain you can, I was joking.
I’m beyond putting dumb shit past Apple, sadly.
Thank you to everyone for the kind comments, especially Craig Calcaterra for linking to the story on the HardballTalk blog at nbcsports.com. For those who don’t follow Craig, you should do so immediately (@craigcalcaterra).
I’m going to try to get something up again in the next couple of days – feel free to throw any desired topics my way and I’ll do my best to “get at them.”
Off topic from the current thread, but so most of the regulars would see this. I saw this on MLBTR.
I know something was brought up a while back about Uggla’s defense away from FLA. Pretty crazy but here is the breakdown:
-26 UZR, -10.4 UZR/150 in FLA
3.4 UZR, 1.4 UZR/150 everywhere else
I think we have to find that fairly encouraging.
Mac:
Shift + Command + 3 for the entire screen.
Shift + Command + 4 to make a selection.
Just sayin.
Also, a really reassuring quote from Chipper plucked from MLBTR: “I’m so out of shape, one of my neighbors caught me dry-heaving on his lawn,” Jones said. “We had a nice little chuckle out of it. I grabbed his phone to make sure he didn’t take any video and people would see it on YouTube.”
Awesome..
vivabeta/38,
Yeah, I think Chipper’s such a personable guy with the media he sometimes says more than he should. Such as letting the media know he was thinking about retirement.
That was a topic that shouldn’t have gotten out unless he actually made the decision to retire. Not only did it become a big media story, but now it’s become a basis for Braves “fans” to criticize him and call for him to retire.
Todd,
I saw that, too. I couldn’t find where that guy found that info, though. Do you know where he got that? I have a hard time believing it’s accurate, but am obviously very curious.
Burrito Bro,
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B&season=0#uzr
I had a tough time believing it too, so I did a little investigating. Checked out BR first, and then went to fangraphs. Bottom of the page has the UZR numbers.
Oh, wow. Yea you’re right. I looked on fangraphs before, but I guess I was just too hasty and missed it.
It seems like FLA usually has bad defense, so I checked on another guy who’s spent his career in FLA, Hanley Ramirez (I’m not counting the 2 games he played in Boston in 2005):
home: -32.3 uzr, -15.3 uzr/150
away: -7 uzr, -3.0 uzr/150
Interesting.
Kevin, you mentioned you were taking suggestions for your next topic. I’m not stat-savvy enough to accurately delve into this, but analyzing park effects on Uggla’s defense might reveal something that could allow us to cringe less at the thought of him patrolling our middle infield. Just a thought.
Note: not even sure if there’s a way to adjust someone’s defense for park effects. I just thought it’d be an interesting read.
Yep yep. I just looked up Hanley as well.
I also went back and checked out another player who manned 2B for the Marlins for a decent amount of time, Luis Castillo. While he is definitely considered a better defender than Uggla (and rightfully so), he almost always posted a significantly better road UZR than home.
Mr. Sanchez brought this topic up in the Uggla and aging thread. I usually ignore splits unless there’s a good reason not to.
Just had a chance to listen to the Freeman interview this morning – he comes across as a really bright, engaging guy who works hard and is confident in his abilities.
Makes me wish spring training got started tomorrow! Thanks for sharing it!
Kevin
In terms of topics, how about our SS solutions after next season? or McCann’s long term future should his defense decline with age?
Merry Xmas to all
on the topic of votto, he was projected to have very similar stats to freeman, .270-.280 with about 25 homers as the major league level. His highest BA rank was #43 overall and he always played 2nd fiddle to jay bruce. It was really only upon votto’s promotion to the majors that he began his transformation into one of the best hitters in baseball. Obviously, this happens for very few people and likely will not happen for freddie, but you never know.
Didn’t know that about Castillo too, add him to Hanley, Uggla, Cantu, Bonifacio, it’s starting to look like there’s a good reason not to CAC. I guess we’ll be able to know for sure next year, but it’s starting to look like we shouldn’t expect Uggla to be a butcher. Taking out the politics of Uggla saying he won’t move, if Fredi trusts him at 2nd more than Prado (who while he hasn’t gotten great has at least gotten much better at 2nd) I think that should tell us he can at least be an average defender the next few years. At least I hope he can be an adequate, if not good, defender.
It doesn’t seem too far fetched that Florida could just have a particularly shitty infield surface, I guess. It’s really hard to make these judgments with UZR, though, since it takes so long to stabilize, so I’m not getting real excited just yet.