An early look at the depth chart
December 29, 2010 at 1:15 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
My best guess:
Some notes:
- As usual, the starting pitching depth is outstanding. It becomes substantially less than outstanding if Brandon Beachy is traded, at least until either Kris Medlen returns from his UCL replacement operation or one of Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado is MLB ready. For now it would probably be best to hang on to Beachy, using him when a sixth starter is inevitably needed. Once the next best available starter isn’t Todd Redmond Beachy becomes more of an expendable asset, opening up more trade possibilities. It still might make sense to trade him before then, but only for something that’s going to positively impact the 2011 roster.
- I didn’t put Kenshin Kawakami on the depth chart because a) he’s not going to be on it when it matters and b) he’s not on the 40-man roster.
- Speaking of which, Randall Delgado is now on the 40-man roster, something you might have missed if you blinked (guilty).
- The right-handed relief depth is stacked. Linebrink and Proctor aren’t great pitchers, the latter being far worse, but with Stephen Marek, Christhian Martinez, Cory Gearrin, and the artist formerly known as Luis Valdez waiting in the wings you figure they’ll eventually be able to find enough competent right-handed relievers.
- With four legitimate left-handed relief options there’s a modest amount of depth there, which is significant because most organizations have trouble fielding two competent lefty-relievers.
- There are only two catchers on the 40-man roster. There are three more in AAA: Clint Sammons, J.C. Boscan, and Orlando Mercado–all three of which have more ‘org guy’ than ‘third catcher’ in them. With McCann and Ross in the majors the Braves have one of the best catching situations in baseball, but some depth there would be a nice luxury (though nothing more).
- I flip-flopped on Eric Hinske and Joe Mather as the reserve 1B. My thinking in deciding on Hinske is Freeman will more-or-less play every day and if he goes down they’ll employ some sort of platoon in which Eric Hinske gets more of the reps because he’s left-handed. I could easily see Joe Mather getting more PT at 1st than Hinske, though.
- I have Matt Young in the majors as the reserve CF and Jordan Schafer in the minors, though it could go either way if they don’t go outside the organization, which is also a possibility. MLBTradeRumors named Scott Hairston (who was a +5 CF in 140 innings according to both +/- and UZR last year) and Andruw Jones (who wasn’t as good) as plausible fits. Quick note about 140-inning samples of fielding stats: they’re too small to accurately represent true talent level with much confidence. MLBTR also mentioned Wallace “Beau” Torbert, a 28-year-old career minor leaguer who was named the independent league player of the year in 2010 by Baseball America. I know nothing about him.
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I agree that Matt Young will probably be on the 25 man when the season begins, with Schaefer in the minors. I think Schaefer has the potential to share some time in CF starting around early June, but he needs to get some good reps in the minors first.
The right handed relievers make me a little nauseous, but I think they’ll improve as the season goes on. Hopefully Marek and Delgado make it in there, and Medlen will probably be back around September. Theres going to be a lot riding on Linebrink, at least in the first part if the season. Moylan isn’t a full inning guy so Linebrink will probably get worked more than he should be.
Player I’m most excited to watch: Derek Lowe (surprise, I know). Cox predicted him to be a 20 game winner, and after the way he ended the season I don’t see why he couldn’t.
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I’m kind of taken off guard by the appearance of Delgado on the 40-man roster. When did that happen and why do you think it did?
Delgado was placed on the 40 man alongside Matt Young in early December to protect them from the Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings. I was surprised at the time. I had forgotten he was signed out of Panama at 15 and rule 5 eligible. Certainly would have been taken if left off the 40 man roster.
Delgado was placed on the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 draft (Young and Gearrin also would have been eligible).
For anyone with knowledge on this, what are we on the hook for if Proctor is cut during Spring Training? It would be nice to have a decent way out if he shows up looking, frankly, like he did last year.
I think it’s like 10% of his salary if he goes to Arbitration. But since they just signed him rather than taking him to arbitration I’m not sure if the contract is guaranteed or not. They may be on the hook for $750,000 regardless.
Dan,
Agreed on Lowe. If he maintains the ‘throw the slider first and ask questions later’ approach he can definitely be a top-15 pitcher again.
The Braves all the way in 2011 and beyond.GO BRAVESNATION/BRAVOS.
If/When Medlen gets back healthy will he be put in the bullpen? and if so do you think he will ever be a starter again?
I don’t think he’ll ever be a full-time starter but I could see him being an emergency starter or spot starter.
Any chance Barbaro makes the roster since he seems to be developing more power this winter? I know it is the Mexican League, but he is still hitting a homer every 4 games and is a righty? I think he should be looked at as a bench bat and a righty compliment to Freeman.
I know just a little about Beau Torbert to contribute to the conversation.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 17th round of the 2004 draft, put up good numbers but got injured and evetually released after the 2007 season. Posted a high average for the most part in the MiLb and some speed, but not the power that his 6’4 205+ frame suggests he could.
Went to indy ball, started hitting for more power, stopped trying to steal bases and I think has put a little bit more muscle on his formerly thin frame. He hit nearly .400 last season thats not the exact number but it was around there.
Has played CF in pro ball, but is better suited to LF or RF. I haven’t seen him play since 2006 so he may have slowed down more than I think he ought to have.
DOB did a thing on Torbert back when the Braves picked him up. Sounded like a good guy to take a flyer on, but it doesn’t sound like he has a chance of making the opening day roster. He might make it up mid-season if he tears it up in the minors, but I’m not really expecting to hear anything from him this year. It’s possible he could add some depth in the OF in the coming years, or he might just be an organizational guy.
What about that Lucas kid as an option for backup SS? I was always under the assumption that Diory is a butcher at SS, while I have heard Lucas is a legit fielder.
I disagree about Lowe being dominant again just because he started throwing his slider more. How long do you think it will take for MLB hitters to adjust to that? My guess: not very long at all.
I think Lowe will do exactly what he has been doing during his stay in Atlanta…a 4.0 ERA with 190+ IP. Number of wins is obviously impossible to predict.
This has absolutely nothing to do with the current conversation, but I thought that this was a very good read:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof11/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5963276
Nick S,
I’m similarly skeptical of Lowe’s ability to be a dominant pitcher next year. It’s not like that stretch last year is the first time he’s had a stretch where he was dominant. But after his first year as a starter, he’s been pretty much an average pitcher, sometimes better, sometimes worse. He has these stretches, but either he gets away from what he’s doing or hitters figure out how to get to him.
I’m just not optimistic that this is sustainable, especially with a several month break in between that hot streak and the beginning of the season. I’d be very happy if he can pitch well enough to post an ERA that’s closer to 3.5 than 4.
Nick S.,
Adjusting won’t really help the hitters, it’s a plus pitch. In 2008 he threw his slider 32 percent of the time and it was worth 29 runs above average.
I obviously can’t disagree with the numbers from 2008, but that was 3 years ago. It was a plus pitch back then, and I bet his sinker was also thrown harder and with more movement.
I hope I am wrong, but I have seen Lowe go through similar good stretches in the past, only to fall right back to mediocrity after one good month. If his hot stretch had happened at any other time than the end of the season, nobody would be expecting anything more than his usual 4.0 ERA for next year.
I really hope I am wrong, and we will just have to see I guess.
Ha, just read a comment on the AJC wondering why it’s taking so long for Dayton Moore to trade for Kawakami. It’s funny because it’s true, folks. Kawakami is an unwanted Brave and therefore a perfect fit for KC.
I wrote this about Lowe right before the playoffs.
Minor note: I believe Sammons was released.
I remember he was removed from the 40-man but I’m not finding anything on him being released (not that it isn’t true).
Lowe’s slider offers him a different option to hitters that have been sitting on his sinker. While MLB hitters will adjust they now have to account for 2 plus pitches compare to just 1 when he was throwing his sinker exclusively in tight situations. 20 wins is a little optimistic as we face pretty stern division rivals but 200+ innings at his career ERA (3.85) would be acceptable. Better still if he could get is OPS below 0.7 it would be almost fair value for $15m
This is year 3 of a 4 year contract so the positive is that we got close to 390 innings from Lowe so far and we are better placed than if we had outbid the yankees for Burnett 2 years ago.
Isn’t Matt Diaz an outfielder?
He’s an emergency catcher, actually. Doubles as a lefty reliever, pinch-runner, and generous tipper of clubbies.
Sammons and Mercado are both minor league free agents. J.C. Boscan and Wilkin Castillo are the only catchers on the AAA roster according to the Gwinnett website. Signing a Corky Miller or Raul Chavez or someone with some MLB experience to be the third catcher on the depth chart would be nice and should be easy enough. Too bad the front office got so much done early in the offseason that we’re even talking about this.
Does anyone know the reason why Matt young hasn’t been called up to play in the big league yet? He seems like a perfect fit for us since he has exceptional speed( 39 sb’s in 2010) and he hit for a high average in AAA and all throughout his minor league career. It just seems odd he hasn’t big given a chance yet…
He’s 28 years old and has the kind of game that doesn’t translate particularly well to the majors. His bat speed isn’t good enough to hit a ton, he’s already powerless, and he doesn’t play a particularly good CF. He’ll be a decent 4th OF but right now the Braves need more of a true center fielder.
Matt Young reminds me a cheap option for a starting-CF. He’ll play average/slightly below average defense, hit around .270, but walk for a ton. Like McLouth, but with less power.
So in other words, he wouldn’t be a fit as a defensive replacement outfielder, just as a replacement if McLouth goes down. IMO.
27 and 28
thanks, or as Borat would say “chinque”!!
So is Jurrjens trade bait? IIRC he’s a free agent at the end of 2011 and I’ve read several things about the Braves doubting that they can sign him. His trade value will probably never be higher than it will be this year, especially if he gets off to a good start. I could see him going in a July trade; a rotation with Beachy as the fifth starter would be servicable enough, and it would clear a bit of payroll to maybe add a piece for the stretch run.
Jair Jurrjens is under team control through the end of the 2013 season.
Well FOLKS! New year brings new hopes for our HOME TEAM..i feel good that we will absolutely compete with not just the NL but the entire MLB. Nate will be a serious contender for come back player award. I know that he can duplicate his Pirates numbers in this Braves order, were solid from head to toe. The only & biggest change to the team is if FW magically hypnotized The Mariners GM to Trade for D Lowe, KK, & hell even Nate or a prospect for Ichiro Suzuki. Now how bout you pull that off FW & you will have assembled a team that will go to World Series for several tears.. Even at his age you can bet that Ichiro will have 200+ hits leading off playing solid total Gold glove game with CANNON!! Line up would instantly b better the the Phils..But back to reality Nate bounces back wins comeback player under new hitting coach, manager.. Now for Scott proctor his contract allows the Braves to release him during ST and not have to fulfill his 750K contract without losing a dime. Now once they put him on ML roster then were happily married screwed..My guess braves just wanted extra body RH for ST. Scott P will get cut in ST once our front office sees what Marek and rest of minor league prospects can do in just 2 months plus..I cannot wait for Opening Day. The Braves Are Back!!!
Well FOLKS! New year brings new hopes for our HOME TEAM..i feel good that we will absolutely compete with not just the NL but the entire MLB. Nate will be a serious contender for come back player award. I know that he can duplicate his Pirates numbers in this Braves order, were solid from head to toe. The only & biggest change to the team is if FW magically hypnotized The Mariners GM to Trade for D Lowe, KK, & hell even Nate or a prospect
for Ichiro Suzuki. Now how bout you pull that off FW & you will have assembled a team that will go to World Series for several tears.. Even at his age you can bet that Ichiro will have 200+ hits leading off playing solid total Gold glove game with CANNON!! Line up would instantly b better the the Phils..But back to reality Nate bounces back wins comeback player under new hitting coach, manager.. Now for Scott proctor his contract allows the Braves to release him during ST and not have to fulfill his 750K contract without losing a dime. Now once they put him on ML roster then were happily married screwed..My guess braves just wanted extra body RH for ST. Scott P will get cut in ST once our front office sees what Marek and rest of minor league prospects can do in just 2 months plus..I cannot wait for Opening Day. The Braves Are Back!!!
Who the heck is supposed to pitch in long relief when one of the starters inevitably goes down early? I don’t know if any of the relievers you put on your MLB roster would be capable of producing more than 2 innings.
Since the Braves want to clear salary so they can buy a solid centerfielder, don’t be surprised if Lowe goes to the Yankees for one of their outfielders. New York can afford him and the Braves have the pitching depth to make the move.