Outfield Optimist
December 30, 2010 at 1:26 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves, Defense, Front Office, Transactions
Right now, there is a big misunderstanding among fans about the current Braves outfield situation. There are in fact, two major league outfielders currently on the team. Then there’s Eric Hinske and Jordan Schafer, each with his own issues.
Hinske came into the big leagues as a third baseman, and until Chipper Jones decides to retire, he’s not going to return to the hot corner. His other fit would be at first base, but Freddie Freeman is clearly going to have every opportunity to succeed this season. Therefore, he falls into the outfield by default, regardless of his limited range.
Although Schafer’s issues have been fairly well documented between suspensions and off-the-field issues, I would like to share something that I learned from a anonymous and extremely reliable source earlier this month: At one time, he was juggling four or five agents, telling each of them that they were representing him. In reality they all liked him for the potential that he had on the field, but he was too much to handle. In summary, the time that it would require to babysit him, isn’t worth what will come from him.
Even if he were an angel in the clubhouse and outside of baseball, the skill set hasn’t been there since his first Major League at-bat in 2009. Bobby Cox is known for sticking with players through thick and thin, and Schafer managed to play so poorly, that he was ultimately demoted on May 31, 2009 and has yet to return.
I would like to believe that Nate McLouth will rebound, and same goes for the front office and a majority of the fanbase. For those who would like to see someone else, well too bad!
Truth is the Braves are going to have to live with their current outfield, with Hinske receiving most of the reserve time behind Martin Prado while allowing Joe Mather and Matt Young to audition in the spring.
I understand that it’s not the best outfield, but it’s hard for Frank Wren to do much of anything at this point. While Scott Hairston is a free agent, it’s unlikely that he will out produce McLouth in 2011. McLouth posted WAR of 3.7 in 2008, 3.4 in 2009, and -1.3 last season (obviously terrible). Hairston’s WAR in 2008 was a 2.2, followed by a 1.9 in 2009 and a 0.4 last season.
I don’t view this as much of an upgrade, especially considering McLouth is 18 months younger. All that this move would do is add to the payroll in a poor attempt to patchwork the outfield.
Regardless, the issue isn’t that the Braves need a center fielder; it’s that they need a fourth outfielder. They need someone with plenty of range and a decent arm that can serve as a reliable bat off of the bench and an occasional pinch runner. If I had my pick, it would be Matt Angle, a center fielder in the Baltimore Orioles organization.
Angle was drafted in the 7th round in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, and has had a fairly productive minor league career. Odds are low that he’ll ever appear in an All-Star Game or make a run for the triple crown, but he’s a guy that can play all there outfield spots and can contribute in a variety of ways.
Even if the Braves did acquire Angle, the issue of attempting to patchwork the outfield still remains with just one guy who started on a regular basis last season (Heyward).
Frank Wren has a theory of waiting 40 games into the season and at that point evaluating the team. This way, players have a chance to prove themselves and the front office will have a general idea of the contenders and pretenders.
I’m all for the Braves making a move to bring in that fourth outfielder, but I say let’s wait until that 40 game mark and view our options from there. In all reality, the difference between the six outfielders currently on the 40-man roster and the gentlemen listed here, isn’t going to make a big enough difference to stress about by that point in the season.
Important Note: It was announced on Twitter today that Jason Heyward has flown to Southern California to hang out with Freddie Freeman for the week. (Side note: This is the only tweet that I have ever “favorited” on Twitter and shall remain so for the rest of time.) I would give a lot to find out exactly what these two guys do when they “hang out.” Do they go to bars? The beach? Play catch?
Please, help me solve this mystery by leaving your thoughts in the comments below.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter (@kevinorris) or e-mail me at KevinOrris@CapitolAvenueClub.com.
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I think they just sit and watch episodes of Glee while drinking apple-tini’s
Here’s hoping they are baseball “gym rats” and spend their days at the cage and in the gym. Then sit on the couch at night and watch ESPN classic reruns of 1970s world series games and compare themselves to Roberto Clemente and Dave Parker. And if they take any time out to chase women they are incredibly attractive. Those fellas deserve it.
i believe you meant ‘anonymous’ source and ‘three’ outfield spots. just trying to help!
Maybe they met up to discuss Team-Friendly long-term extensions.
“I understand that it’s not the best outfield, but it’s hard for Frank Wren to do much of anything at this point. While Scott Hairston is a free agent, it’s unlikely that he will out produce McLouth in 2011. McLouth posted WAR of 3.7 in 2008, 3.4 in 2009, and -1.3 last season (obviously terrible). Hairston’s WAR in 2008 was a 2.2, followed by a 1.9 in 2009 and a 0.4 last season.”
Sure, but then two paragraphs later you say:
“Regardless, the issue isn’t that the Braves need a center fielder; it’s that they need a fourth outfielder.”
Which is why it’s irrelevant that Hairston has not ever produced as much as McLouth has in his two best seasons. Nobody is arguing he should be the starting center fielder. As you document, the Braves need a guy who can play center field well and, I’d add, hit lefties. Hairston does both, and he’s cheap. In other words, he’s the perfect complement to McLouth AND a good 4th outfielder for this Braves roster. He could add .5-1.0 wins to McLouth’s (hopefully) 2-3 wins, coming in as a defensive replacement late, pinch hitting against LOOGYs, and occasionally getting a spot start when a tough lefty takes the mound.
anonymous, not unanimous.
I think it’s premature to discount Schafer entirely. You shouldn’t imply that he doesn’t have the “skill set” without mentioning his injury. I know we all discount the “best shape of his life” articles in the offseason, but DOB’s recent article was awfully positive.
Thanks for the info on Angle; “contribute in a variety of ways” is often code for “this guy can’t hit a lick.” Do you think Angle has a chance at becoming a MLB hitter? I think we’d be pretty happy with a 700 or even 650 OPS if he was good defensively. What can he do that Schafer and McLouth can’t do? Is he a better fielder than Schafer?
Kawakami + cash for Angle? Is that reasonable?
5/Hizouse,
Precisely what I was going to say about Schafer.
If anything, in those short 4 or 5 days (and in ST) he showed that he DOES have the skill set to be a major league player.
Kevin, the injury to his wrist, seems to me, is EVERYTHING as far as his struggles go. We have no reason to believe otherwise. Yet, you chose to completely ignore it. He still played a fine OF even with his wrist injury. We know he can run.
Whether or not he is a diva with respect to his agents is immaterial to me.
As far as Hairston or any others and waiting 40 days, I don’t have any problem with that. I think we need to see Nate for that long anyways. Then, if he hasn’t rebounded, we try to make a real move and actually get an everyday CF, instead of just a 4th OF. I’ve never seen a problem with waiting a little while to see what we’ve got before committing a bunch of money.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Kevin Orris. Kevin Orris said: My view on the #Atlanta #Braves outfield situation: http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3354 [...]
If you’re going to be an optimist regarding McLouth, you might as well be an optimist regarding Schafer too. It seems plausible that many of his problems have in fact been due to stupidly playing through significant injuries rather than a lack of skills. Hopefully he’ll be able to contribute some.
Fourty days sounds a bit much to me considering we have all of spring training to evaluate players before the season starts. If McLouth goes through spring training with an OBP around .300 then I don’t see a reason to stick with him in center field for that many regular season games– certainly not anywhere near the top of the order like Gonzalez has hinted at having him.
Great article, I have always wondered how those two have spent their free time together because they look about as odd of a couple as you can possible get. Seeing the appletini comment immediately thought of Scrubs and maybe these two are the baseball world equivalent of J.D and Turk. Just two goofy SOBs who don’t look like they have much in common, but compliment each other well.
A Nate McLouth/Scott Hairston platoon would be ideal at this point. McLouth’s career numbers against RHP: .258/.346/.461. Hairston’s career numbers vs LHP: .278/.331/.498. Hairston had a down year last year, but he’s still just 30. Everybody has a down year. If you let McLouth play every day, you’re going to have to deal with his career numbers against LHP: .233/.308/.369 – not pretty. Go get Hairston and put him and McLouth in a position where they can succeed.
McLouth’s career OPS against RHP is .807 and Hairston’s against LHP is .829. Assuming roughly 2/3 of starting pitchers are RHP, if you combine those two OPS numbers into a platoon, you’d get around a .815 OPS out of your CF position. Do you know how many NL CFers had an OPS of .815 or more last year? The number is 2 – Colby Rasmus and Andres Torres. This platoon could turn the Braves’ CF position into a strength relative to the rest of the NL.
I’m all for Schafer in the long-term, but let’s face it, he needs to prove himself all over again. Let him have at least half a season at AAA before we throw him into the fire again.
4/Adam
After reviewing the article, I see that I come off as an idiot in those two paragraphs. My intentions with this piece changed three times and it made for an unorganized article.
Some believe that the team is already above payroll, and either way they would have to move some salary to bring him in. I don’t see anyone on this team being dealt anytime soon, unless we’re talking Kawakami or Schafer.
5/Hizouse
I believe that Angle can become a big league hitter, but I wouldn’t expect much from him. I think he could be a great fourth outfielder though – speed, defense, and flexibility are all key words that you look for in this role.
Here’s an excerpt of the Baseball American 2010 Prospect Handbook on Angle:
“Defense is Angle’s strong suit, and most scouts think he could play defense in the major leagues now. He also has an above-average arm for a center fielder. Angle knows his game and embraces the leadoff role. He has a short swing and uses the entire field. Angle has above-average speed and baserunning instincts, and stole 42 bases last year while getting caught just 12 times in 2009. His only truly deficient tool is power, but if he can be a leadoff hitter that won’t be a problem. He might not get the opportunity to be a big league regular in Baltimore, where the outfield is stacked with talented young players. Angle will open 2010 in Double-A and wait for an opportunity.”
6/Jared
That would be ideal in my world. Which explains why I was extremely disappointed when talks broke down between the two teams.
5,7,8/Schafer
The wrist injury is obviously an issue, and Schafer should probably have an entire article to himself. However, a lot of scouts that I have talked to feel that the Braves missed the opportunity to trade him at this peak value. Yes, he’s only 23. Yes, he has some power.
But his numbers have been on a steady decline since 2007. He’s going to have the opportunity to play in the big leagues this year, but let’s not get our hopes up. I think that a lot of people are stuck living in the past with him and remember the 2007 season, and even then most of his value came in stolen bases.
He’s got plenty of motivation to succeed considering no agents want anything to do with him, and plenty of people still think he is an average player at best, like myself.
I’d like for nothing more than him to succeed, but he spent time at all three levels last year, and nothing good came from any of them. If it was just the wrist, I don’t think he would have moved more than once.
I think when they get together they implicitly create a supernova. But if we’re talking purely humanistic effects then 1) Chuck Norris begins to cry and 2) The Mayan’s re-write their apocalyptic calender so as to account for the Braves 2012-2032 World Series sweep.
Kevin – Agreed on Schafer. I just cannot get excited about a guy who basically failed across the board last season in the minors. Obviously, there’s no point in not sticking with him at this point–the only place he has to go is up–but I’d prefer it if he wasn’t penciled in as the solution to our outfield problem.
As for the salary limitations and the Braves’ supposed inability to add a guy like Hairston, that just casts into sharp relief just how awful was the Proctor signing. Hairston, according to CAC, should be gettable for under $1 million next year.
And so if the Braves actually are maxed out, they have poorly allocated their admittedly limited resources. I truly believe that (1) adding insurance for McLouth, (2) improving the outfield defense, and (3) adding a hitter with a solid right-handed platoon split far outweighs whatever a guy like Proctor, or even Linebrink, brings to the team–especially with so many viable in-house solutions for the bullpen available. It kind of baffles me, because no matter how much McLouth rebounds he will never be able to hit lefties, and he will not be a good defender.
My guess? They talk baseball and Heyward watches Freeman play video games. The best thing that ever happened to Freeman was becoming friends with Heyward. Don’t think for a second they don’t talk shop and Heyward doesn’t give Freeman advice. Freeman will reach his max potential because he’s humble, smart, and capable. If he was a bad influence of any sort I don’t think Heyward would be friends with him. In other words, I think Heyward looks for good people to be around, you can tell by his demeanor and the fact that he’s best friend’s with Freeman bodes well for Atlanta.
I still have faith they can work out a trade, Kevin. Knowing Wren, the fact that we haven’t heard much on Kawakami lately could very well mean he’s in the middle of working out the details. Then again, it could mean absolutely nothing…
What do you think about signing Lastings Milledge as a free agent? He’s only 25, says he’s healthy after being hurt for two years. He can play all 3 OF positions. Power isnt great but his glove is.
McLouth is not very good, we have to deal with that. We do need someone else to at least platoon with him.
In my humble opinion, let it go on Schafer. If he some day proves something, we start talking about him again. Putting any hope in him can not be backed up, at all. When he one day proves anything I will happily eat my words.
Lance,
Milledge can’t really play CF and doesn’t play a great corner OF. He’s still young with a shred of offensive upside, but there’s no place for him on a Braves team that has Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Joe Mather, and Eric Hinske on it. Plus he’s a noted knucklehead, and he might do more harm than good.
I would assume they play one-on-one ultimate frisbee on the beach.
Cac, I know the Indians would like to trade Sizemore. What would it take to get him? If he could stay healthy he would be great in center. At least he’ll try to throw runners out or just get the ball in. If they would take Nate or kk and we give them a pitching prospect or two I think it could happen. Or is this just a pipe dream.
What are the chances of the braves getting Grady Sizemore from the Indians for Atlanta Prospects? … I saw on MLBTR that the Indians would love to trade Sizemore for prospects.
OklahomaBrave/22 and nick/23,
Thanks for pointing that out, I’d missed it. I’ve always thought that if McLouth struggles Sizemore would be a logical candidate to pursue mid-season. Right now we don’t know how healthy he is or what he’s capable of.
I also don’t think they could take on his $8.75 million salary right now ($7.5 million in 2010–inflated 10 percent to $8.25 million once he’s traded per his contract–and a $500,000 assignment bonus). The Indians surely wouldn’t take back McLouth or Kawakami, at least not their entire salaries.
One more thing to consider: the 2012 club option at somewhere between $9 and $10.5 million with a $0.5 million buyout becomes a player option if he’s traded (with no buyout). If he has a good year he’ll decline the option and the Braves will either have traded for a rental or pony up and sign him at market rate, which may be more than he’s actually worth especially coming off a good year. If he’s bad/injured the Braves are locked in at $9 million–possibly more, though if he’s good enough for the salary escalators to trigger he’ll probably decline the option–for the 2012 season once he exercises the player option and we’ll be going to 2012 Spring Training saying the exact same things about Sizemore we’re saying McLouth this year.
I might try to make this topic more palatable to the average baseball fan in the form of a blog post later.
That’s what I thought. We have a young Sizemore in Schafer if he can actually live up to the hype. I just hope the hgh and wrist problems don’t ruin his time in the Atl.
I love this blog! Full of braves baseball and no bs!
Wren knows he needs a bat in the outfield and somebody to platoon with McLouth would be ideal, but until the Braves are able to dump Kawakami there’s just no money available.
Considering that Kawakami’s numbers really weren’t that bad for a fifth starter, at what point is the team better off keeping him as an emergency starter / injury replacement. If the Braves can only clear $1 million by trading him is it really a good move. I guess it depends on how confident the Braves are in Beachy and Minor, and what else Wren could buy for $1 million.