Transaction Analysis: Dan Uggla Extension
January 5, 2011 at 7:40 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Signed Dan Uggla to a 5-year, $62 million contract extension.
You know by now, but for the record, the Braves have signed Dan Uggla to a 5-year, $62 million contract extension. The deal reportedly pays him something like $9 million in 2011 and somewhere around $13.25 million a year from 2012 to 2015. Sure, the deal is risky, but provided Dan Uggla does age like the average player does, it’s a pretty good deal. JC has Uggla worth ~$67 million over the next five years (I’m not sure what’s going on, but JC had Uggla worth $51 million over the next four years back in November) and my calculations agree–again, assuming an average aging pattern.
Uggla was going to make more than $9 million in 2011 via the arbitration process (I had him down for $10 million in my payroll calculations, which may have been conservative), so the Braves save some money this year. The importance of immediately saving money is increasing by the day as the offseason proceeds and Kenshin Kawakami and his $6.67 million salary sit on the Class AA Mississippi Braves roster. Having not heard so much as a peep about the situation in nearly a month, the notion that the Braves will not be able to trade him crawls toward becoming a reality. The good news is with Uggla signed for merely $9 million, the Braves are probably in a position where they can afford to keep Kawakami in the organization in 2011. They’re not going to be forced to make a salary dump they don’t want to, in other words.
And with Kawakami off the books entirely after 2011 the Braves won’t be fretting over having $13 million committed to Dan Uggla in 2012, unless he turns into a lemon between now and then. That’s basically the concern, here. Exactly when will Dan Uggla turn into a lemon? When is the Richie Sexson moment coming? Knowing this would make analyzing this deal a lot easier.
First of all, trust me, it’s coming. Dan Uggla will eventually turn into a sub-replacement level baseball player. Probably before he retires. Hopefully not within the next five years.
The one thing working against the Braves and Dan Uggla is that Uggla is not an extraordinary athlete, which means two things. The first is he’s not a very good defensive second baseman. We knew this. A certain amount of athleticism is required to play a serviceable second base in major league baseball. Uggla does play a serviceable second base in major league baseball, but with close to the minimum amount of athleticism required to do so. Athleticism ages and at some point he won’t have enough to play a serviceable second base in major league baseball. The man is 31 years old. How many 31 year olds are a) athletic enough to handle second base in the major leagues and b) going to stay that way for the next five years? Narrow the sample down to professional athletes, or even professional baseball players, and the odds are still stacked against Uggla.
There’s also a certain amount of athleticism required to swing a 33 ounce baseball bat 80 miles per hour and make contact with Drew Storen’s slider. While Dan Uggla also currently has enough athleticism to do that, this ability will too deteriorate to the point where Dan Uggla is incapable of contributing with the bat. Either his bat speed will decline and the power will go with it or he’ll turn into Cody Johnson, striking out in 35 percent of his at-bats, trying to maintain his bat speed. Uggla doesn’t have the 80 raw power to keep hitting 30+ homers through his mid-30′s without his contact skills falling apart like Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado. He’s a career .263 hitter who walks in 11 percent of his plate appearances and it’s going to be difficult to get on base enough to contribute if his strikeout rate increases much more. And, let’s face it, without the power he’s not a great offensive player. His .349 on-base average is very, very useful, but he’s not getting $13 million a year to be a .270/.350/.400, he’s getting paid $13 million a year for the 30 homers. If his athleticism does decline to the point where he’s no longer capable of being a power threat, you’d obviously rather him change his approach to maintain his on-base ability, than flirt with the Mendoza line so he can hit 20 homers, but you’re in a lose-lose situation on both sides of the ball once his athleticism deteriorates.
Which will happen, just hopefully not before 2015. And again we’re left hoping, because nobody knows when it will happen and the Braves can’t afford to be too wrong about this. The organization lacks the financial resources to overcome having a sub-replacement level player on their roster making $13 million for multiple years and the creativity and willingness to admit they were wrong and move on.
But I won’t be too grim, because for at least the couple of years Dan Uggla will be a good, right-handed power hitter on a team that both desperately needs one and has nobody else remotely close to ready to fill the need inside the organization. They should be able to find a place to hide him, defensively, for at least the next few years–be it second base, third base, or left field. And trying to guess when he’ll turn into a tub of goo is a job better left to a weatherman, so for all I know he becomes Jeff Kent 2.0 and provides 25 WAR over the next 5 years.
Do me a favor, though. Let’s not get carried away with labeling this a ‘good deal’ or ‘bad deal’ just yet. Time will tell and it’s far from clear how we’ll view this deal 5 years from now.
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I have no idea if this is a good deal or a bad deal. But I would call it a “this scares the hell out of me” deal. Mainly because I don’t like Uggla’s aging profile. But I hope the guys writing the checks are way smarter than me (I’m pretty sure they are) and have more information than me (they definitely do). I just don’t want to curse Dan Uggla’s name in 2013 and on.
Agreed.
Yea, I mean, if we hadn’t already seen Wren hand out what has turned into large chunks of change to Lowe and Kawakami, I have to say I’m not 100% sure of his decision making abilities… well… ok, I’ll amend that. I don’t think Wren does a very good job of considering long-term ramifications when writing out checks. He’s done a fairly good job aside from that, but juggling finances long-term isn’t his strength. What happens now to our chances of locking up Prado, Heyward, McCann, etc?
I doubt they’re changed at all.
The man is a workout freak and stays in great shape, there should be no question about his fitness going into his mid 30s. The only thing that will stop Uggla from producing will be injuries, which he doesnt have a history of.
I think this is the year that tells whether the Lowe deal is defensible or not. The thing about locking up layers via FA or extension is that basically everyone overpays, the trick is just to not let it ruin your club (the way the Cubs did with Soriano) — if Lowe pitches like the he did in Aug and Sept this year his contract won’t even come up. And if Uggla plays at approximately the same level for the next three years, and then starts to seriously decline, we’ll probably still think the Braves did all right.
The man is a workout freak and stays in great shape, there should be no question about his fitness going into his mid 30s. The only thing that will stop Uggla from producing will be injuries, which he doesnt have a history of.
Nostradamus, ladies and gentlemen.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz, Peter Hjort. Peter Hjort said: My take on the Dan Uggla extension — http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3383 [...]
HAHAHA, classic post above
I know you hate splitting data, but Talking Chop brought up an interesting observation about Uggla’s defense–his UZR splits show him to be average on the road. I wouldn’t mention it unless Sun Life didn’t have a bad reputation for field conditions. Do you think there’s anything to it?
Mark Smith,
We discussed this in some thread here (I can’t remember which), but I posted this in the Talking Chop thread. Basically, I asked MGL about this phenomenon and he said ignore it.
In my eyes, this deal is a hedge against salary inflation rather than a statement of faith by Braves management that Uggla will follow an reasonable aging trajectory. If the deals handed out this winter are a sign of things to come, this is a smart move because the price of a win rose significantly.
That’s what I was afraid of.
Second question–is there a consensus thought on moving someone from 2B to 3B (or vice versa) and how players would handle such a transition? It seems like range wouldn’t be as necessary at 3B with reaction time and arm strength being the preferred abilities (not that Uggla has any of these; I’m mainly just curious).
ALMOST every player has a negative somewhere in his profile.
Who do you think we should have gotten to provide power from the right side?
OR was this not the time to get someone because the prospects were few?
Would you rather have Werth and the deal he got? NO!
Maybe, just maybe it was a good deal?!
There is a huge difference between being physically fit and being athletic. The first does not guarantee the second, by any stretch….
I kind of agree with #12 Ben. I think it is a hedge against inevitable inflation and if Uggla keeps up his production over the next 2 years then possible trade bait. You never know. I think it might make it possible for more flexibility in 2 years.
Mark Smith,
It’s a question of a player’s defensive talents usually. More lateral range is required at 2nd, more “charging” range plus arm is required at 3rd.
The general opinion is that they’re about as difficult to play. Martin Prado is much better at 3rd than 2nd. Omar Infante is much better at 2nd than at 3rd. I think Uggla will be about a -10 defender no matter where he plays.
I may be in the minority, but I don’t have a problem with the signing. We’re never going to sign big-name FAs with our payroll limitations, so these are the types of moves we have to make to stay competitive.
I know we have a bunch of arb cases coming up for some key players, but we’re in good shape for the long-term with approx $35M coming off the books next season between Lowe, Kawakami (if he’s unable to be moved) and Chipper (if he retires, which he probably will).
CAC – not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but any FAs look enticing to you in ’12 in a Braves uni?
Hey CAC,
Just curious… what discount rate do you use in the PV calculations?
Honolulu Brave/18
I think we will be looking at replacement for A-Gon and McLouth after next season concludes. If Grady Sizemore is over his injuries he is a FA but SS is very limited. Chipper will decide his own fate sometime during next season so potentially we will need a 3B option or LF (Cody Ross?) if Prado replaces Chipper at 3B in 2012.
Starting rotation should be in good order and bullpen will need the usual 1 yr pieces to replace Linebrink & Sherill.
Sorry, the Indians have a club option on Sizemore for 2012.
The big question now is about Prado. Do you think the Braves have enough time to make an offer before arbitration agreements are finalized?
Honolulu Braves/18,
I agree with you, I don’t have a problem with the signing, either. I trust the FO knows what they’re doing.
As far as FA’s in 2012 go, I’m mainly looking at the SS ones with Uggla in the fold. Reyes and Hardy look like the most encouraging options from here. Hardy is already looking like an excellent buy-low.
David/19,
8 percent.
MaddBen7,
Time there is. The willingness of the two involved parties to come to an agreement seems like the obstacle, here.
Think the Wren is strategically freeing up some short-term financial flexibility to make a stronger approach when considering midseason trades and acquisitions to fill any necessary holes in the clubhouse and on the diamond after once such gaps have been determined? Keep up the fine maneuvering, Frances, and we just may get that outfielder, or shortstop, sooner than later..
Peter,
According to your table you start with an valuation of 4.2m per win and end with 3.45m per win. Shouldn’t the amount per win increase with age or am I missing something? Also I think JC’s 67 million value comes from the amount per win being higher due to the crazy signings this winter. Nice blog by the way.
CAC, do you not think that it is slightly misleading to include 2011 in the analysis because he was going to be a Brave this year regardless? I think that this should be evaluated as a 4 year deal worth 53M starting in 2012.
PW,
Not to sound like an ass, but why exactly do you say Uggla is not that athletic? It would seem that your first point regarding athleticism is valid (his 2B defense is not great, and it will deteriorate), but your second point, regarding bat speed, cannot stem from the argument that his defense is bad. From the little that I’ve read, he has great work-ethic. And even if that isn’t to be believed (if he just inherited the ‘gritty’ label as a result of being a white infielder who was deemed too small to play at the big league level), I can still see that the guy works out like a madman. I’m not saying that you’re wrong (and, again, not to sound like a dick), but I just want to know what makes you believe that he will lose his physical tools will fall off a cliff faster than anybody else’.
I just saw an interersting tidbit on Uggla’s UZR, come over here to share, and see Mark beat me to it.
but anyway…….
Uggla’s UZR is -26 at home and 3.4 on the road….over the last 5 years. I can see ignoring a single years difference is splits like that, but over 5? That’s got to be a large enough sample size, that’s 2.5 seasons worth of data for each! And that’s not a cherry-picked five, those are the only five seasons he’s played. I think if anyone is telling you to ignore that, what they really are saying is UZR is crap to begin with, which i don’t know enough about to have an opinion on either way.
Also, I thought Cost/Win was now perceived at 5 million/Win in this market. No? This contract looks a lot better at 5 million/Win than at 4.2.
CAC, would the Braves be able to pay up and go get Jose Reyes next year? Or is it a situation where some unexpected money opens up (a Derek Lowe trade or Chipper decides to retire after the 2011 season)?
CAC,
Kind of in the vein of Blue Horse Shoe, but without the perception of venom.
The interesting analysis to counterpose to me on this is an “if arb salary of (11m? whatever is a reasonable assumption) and take the picks” how does that compare to the whole analysis and to the 4 out years only (except to subtract the difference between year 1 arb salary and year 1 contract salary).
It looks like to me we turned 10 million in “excess value” into 5 million. So that 5 million needs to be charged against the 4 “out years” which makes them essentially 5 million over market (2 million savings in 11, net loss of 2.6 in the 4 out years, 5 million lost value from status prior to long term deal).
In my universe, guaranteeing before this year is complete adds injury cost risk to the Braves, which should have resulted in a reduction in the contract from these numbers.
So, I don’t hate the deal. But I really don’t like it except that in the context that if Chipper retires after this year, then it will work. If Chipper is mediocre this year and wants to come back, then this is contract may be an anchor.
We can only hope that for the next three years Uggla continues to put up the same kind of numbers that he has done in the past. In year four we should hope that an A.L. team needs a right handed DH and the Braves can make a trade for some prospects. Some of the kids down in the Braves minor leage system should be ready by then to handle second base or Left field.
I see this signing as nothing but positive. A right handed power bat was the largest hole in the entire organization, and Wren just filled it with a guy that is as close to a lock for 30 HRs from the right side as there is in the game. His production will deteriorate near the end of the deal, but I seriously doubt he just flops and his contract turns into an albatross.
I might be worried about Uggla’s production falling off a cliff if he hadn’t been so consistent for the past 5 years. And he has been remarkably consistent. There are literally no signs of him declining at all. Last year was obviously his career year, but I expect his numbers next year that fall somewhere between his 09 and 2010 production…an 850 OPS and 30+ HRs.
It is a given that by the end of the deal he will have 1 or 2 years with an OPS near 800, but that is just the way it is with FA contracts. You underpay at the beginning of the contract and overpay at the end. The only way to avoid that problem is to avoid ever signing players in their prime, and I think we can all agree that is not a viable option if the goal is to construct a winning team.
Is anyone else worried that we are taking a bad defensive team (based on last year’s results) and adding one of the worst fielding 2nd basemen in baseball? I don’t think its going to get any better as he ages.
Anish/26,
According to your table you start with an valuation of 4.2m per win and end with 3.45m per win. Shouldn’t the amount per win increase with age or am I missing something?
I’ve discounted the future salary to the present value thereof. The $/W is actually increasing, but behind the scenes.
Also I think JC’s 67 million value comes from the amount per win being higher due to the crazy signings this winter. Nice blog by the way.
I figured it was something like that, thanks.
desert/28,
I say he’s not very athletic because of observation. The bat speed thing doesn’t stem from his defensive abilities, the two are a corollary of his relative lack of athleticism.
I don’t believe he will decline faster than anyone else, just that the risk of it happening is greater than that of an average player.
BrianB/31,
They will, it just depends on how they address the CF situation. If Schafer is ready to be an every-day CF, they’ll definitely have the money.
cliff/32,
I’ve kinda quit figuring draft pick compensation in TV because from what I hear the practice will have been scrapped by this time next year.
Sam/35,
Not really. They got better, overall. Lost something on defense, gained something on offense.
You can watch the press conference here.
Sam/35,
Yeah, they’re a better team overall, but there’s probably still going to be a number of cringe-inducing error-plagued games like there were last year. It shouldn’t hurt the overall record, but the defense will likely be painful to watch at times.
CAC/37,
I don’t think that link was correct, though I’m not sure as I could no longer bear the idiotic commentators gushing about how Melky could help the Royals because he helped the Braves get to the postseason.
They played the press conference on that link but it’s over now. It’s MLB.com’s “live feed” link.
tim in mpls/39,
Well, then, the Nationals should be playoff bound for sure considering they picked up Werth and Ankiel.
In what ways did the Braves get worse in defense for 2011? Uggla gives a hit on everything, but I think that Prado is a definite upgrade over Melky. I absolutely hated seeing Melky waddle his way towards a ball that he never had any chance of catching because he was so fat. And if McLouth is back for good, I would think that he was better than most of the crap we through into CF last year, Melky included.
Chipper is a year older, but that shouldn’t be all that concerning. And we definitely upgrade at first base in Freeman.
Does my perception not equate with reality in this case?
Nah, I actually think you’re right.
Freeman over Glaus is a very underrated defensive upgrade.
You’re probably right. I have a hard time describing McLouth as an upgrade defensively. He might be an upgrade over Melky, but he’s a downgrade from Ankiel. Prado is almost definitely better than anyone who played LF last year.
LOL, our defense is probably pretty solid except up the middle.
David O’Brien with the $$ details of the Uggla deal:
“Uggla gets a $1 mill signing bonus, $9 mill salary in 2010, and $13 mill each of the following four seasons”
Glad to see that you at least mentioned the Jeff Kent comparison. Looking on Fangraphs at their wOBA by age (among other stats) shows a VERY similar profile up to this point in both their careers. Of course, Kent then went to have 10 seasons in his 30′s that were all better than any season in his 20′s.
As you said, it’s anyone’s guess if this deal turns out to be good, bad, or even for the Braves over the next 5 years. But there is at least some historical precedent that it could work out well (even if the odds are against it).
“So what does it lead to? Obviously, it leads to overvaluing players with high defensive numbers and undervaluing players with low defensive numbers, in terms of their WAR – what we think they actually did. ”
-mgl, insidethebook.com-
I read Peter’s comments on TalkingChop, and the later posted link.
This quote stood out to me most, when speaking on Uggla’s contract. I’ll wrap that with Wren’s knowledge of the situation, and trust this contract for now.
I understand why some are concerned about this deal, especially given Uggla’s potential to age more poorly than the average major leaguer. However I think there is another dimension to the deal, in that the Braves are going to need to replace their centerfielder and shortstop next year. There is a real chance that they will need to replace left field as well, if Chipper sustains another injury and Prado shifts back to third. Without an Uggla extension, they would be looking at having to find a second baseman as well. Personally I think it’s dangerous for a mid-market team like Atlanta to have that many holes to fill in one offseason, because the FA and trade markets can be so unpredictable. Even if the Uggla deal doesn’t end up being a great $/win value, there is something to be said for a little security.
Ok, so I’m curious what you guys think. Who will stay in ATL longer: Fredi Gonzalez or Dan Uggla?
I would say Fredi because I don’t know that I see him getting a more attractive job offer, I think the Braves will give him the benefit of the doubt, and I think this team will have too much talent the next few years to be that bad.