Where is the love?
February 7, 2011 at 8:22 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Surprisingly, the reason that I joined CAC wasn’t to rank starting pitchers in the NL East. The real reason that I joined Peter is because of our difference in opinion and style, and it’s about time for our first big disagreement.
If you click here, you can view Peter’s top 40 Atlanta Braves prospects. Overall, I think he did a decent job… but I have on BIG issue — Adam Milligan isn’t listed.
Milligan is an outfield prospect that the Braves have loved so much, that they drafted him three times until he finally signed a deal in 2008 as a sixth round pick. While he signed in time to make his professional debut in 2008, a knee injury prevented him from doing so.
In 2009, his first year in professional baseball, he started the year in Danville, and managed to work his way up to the Carolina League (Class Advanced-A) by season’s end. In just 67 total games, Milligan posted a .344/.393/.592 slash line, an impressive line for a 21-year-old.
In 2010, we saw a much different side of him. Milligan appeared in just 21 games last year, hitting .200 with four home runs and two stolen bases (.200/.226/.376). I think we can all agree that those are terrible numbers.
Admittedly, I failed to tell you that he played with a torn rotator cuff last season that was surgically repaired in June.
I understand that it can be difficult to have faith in a guy that a career .193 average in the Carolina League, but leaving him outside of the top 40 is a big mistake.
Every scouting report that I’ve read seems to agree that Milligan is one of the best bats in the system, showing power to all fields with potential to hit upwards of 25 home runs down the road.
I think it would a fair assessment to say that Milligan’s potential is similar to the numbers that Jason Heyward posted in his rookie campaign for the Braves last season. While .277/.393/.456 isn’t going to garner very much attention throughout the league as an established veteran, they’re numbers that I would take across the Atlanta outfield any day.
Ranking top prospects is a difficult thing to do, because it’s hard to actually watch so many different players on so many different teams, much less rank them. Then you have the criteria. Do you rank players based on the likelihood that they reach their potential, or the potential that they have? I think most lists try to find a point between the two.
Personally, I’m a big fan of Milligan’s potential and the likelihood of him reaching it. If he can stay healthy for 2011, I think he has the potential to be a top ten prospect in the Braves system, especially if his numbers are anything like they were in 2009.
From a scouting perspective, I would like him to close his stance a bit, and keep an eye on his back elbow. I don’t like the way that he sets up in the box. Starting open and closing himself off, prevents him from being able to turn on inside pitches, often fouling them off.
Take my opinion for what it’s worth, but I think he at least deserves a spot in the top 25 and hopefully higher as we progress through the 2011 season.
Share your thoughts on Milligan and other top 40 snubs in the comments section below.
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His backside dip and follow through reminds me of a bad version of Nate McLouth. He has the leverage of a power hitter, but his swing causes movement above the chest that prevents consistent contact. I like him for the power, but he has a long way to go. A long way.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Atlanta Braves Buzz and Kevin Orris, Joel Henard. Joel Henard said: RT @kevinorris: The one guy that @CapitolAvenue missed on his Top 40 prospects list: http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3526 [...]
“While .277/.393/.456 isn’t going to garner very much attention throughout the league as an established veteran, they’re numbers that I would take across the Atlanta outfield any day.”
Those are pretty damn good numbers. Although I don’t want to speak for CAC, I’m sure if he thought Milligan was capable of that line he’d be in the Top 40.
This isn’t necessarily about this article but I was just wondering what your take is on the Michael Young situation and him wanting out of Texas. Do you think the Braves could make a push for him, perhaps trading Gonzo and another player and letting him play short again? I know he has a big contract that we probably couldn’t cover unless we definitely got KK off the books and the Rangers would eat some of it. Just curious to know what you think.
Does anyone have a BP subscription? I saw the initial PECOTA projections came out today but can only be viewed by subscribers…I used to have it but didn’t use it enough/had too short of an attention span to renew. Anyways, was wondering how many wins it projected for the Braves.
Peter, I was curious of why you left him out of the top 40.
It helps to do research before making comments…win totals won’t be released for a couple of days.
I believe the general consensus from the negative perspective is that his injuries have hurt the chances that he gets to his potential. I like Milligan and think he can be very impressive, but if your ranking system is based off of likelihood of being a good MLB player then leaving him off of it is fairly rational.
I have him at 14.
Kevin/Peter: What are the chances that the Braves go after Michael Young to play shortstop? Would Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Beachy make sense for Young and 33M? (we’d only be on hook for 5M each of next 3 years. He’d be an upgrade over Gonzalez and brings veteran leadership.
#9, I’m not sure that trade makes much sense for the Rangers. They have a shortstop and they aren’t going to give us $33M.
Ooooooo….. he just went there. Fight! Fight! Inter-blog Fight!
Regrading Michael Young – he has a $80m/5yr contract w/ some deferred money. Braves can’t afford him without the Rangers picking up some of the tab.
The Braves and Rangers could possibly swap bad contracts with Lowe and Young, I think a ground-ball pitcher like Lowe would do well in Arlington. Though I’m not sure if the Rangers quite view this move as a salary dump or not. Young had 2.2 fWAR last year, at $5m per win, he’s not producing the $16m a year he costs.
If the Braves did acquire, defense would go down (assuming he plays SS), the defensive metrics on him aren’t great and A-Gon’s only good trait is his strong defense. Speaking of A-Gon, he’d have to be traded, but I don’t think that would be an issue. At $2.5m, Alex has trade value, but as NickC said, Rangers don’t need a SS because they already have a former Brave prospect there.
Also forgot to add, the Braves aren’t on Young’s trade list
(see Young, http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/texas-rangers.html)
Besides the fact that it’s a bad contract that would net the Rangers very little in trade value, I don’t see the Braves needing him or wanting him with what they already have in place.
With regards to Adam Milligan, if I had made my own rankings, and would have done them based on the potential that he’d make the Big Show, I think that I would have left him off with the injury risk and the set-back that he’s already endured. If he can show, through this next year, that he’s capable of rebounding, I think that he should show up on the top40 list again. That being said, I don’t know enough about the lower-end prospects to be all that excited about the future impact of a guy like Milligan or any of the others beyond the 12th or 15th ranked person.
If Lowe went to Texas, you’d better believe no one would watch the game in HD.
Nice ideas on Young. Let’s down grade our defense at another position. That shit doesn’t matter anyway right?
I’m sure it won’t matter him leaving The Ballpark at Arlington. His road splits aren’t significant are they?
Let’s go get that overpaid, defensive-deficient, middle age infielder!
I am not sure that Milligan should have been left off the Top 40, but he still has a lot to prove. Even before his injury last year, I know that a number of scouts thought that he was too muscle bound and questioned his bat speed. Lets hope that he breaks out in 2011….
I must say Kevin, well-timed title of your post considering the halftime shenanigans of the most recent professional football game.
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-report-adam-milligan-of-braves/
Sounds to me like he’s about the 50th best Braves prospect. I think Peter did very well to leave him off the Top 40.
“While .277/.393/.456 isn’t going to garner very much attention throughout the league as an established veteran, they’re numbers that I would take across the Atlanta outfield any day.”
Hmmmm. That slash line was good enough for 15th best in the NL in wOBA, ahead of Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Andre Ethier, and Colby Rasmus. Do those players get much attention around the league?
Dave,
I understand that it was better than the names that you mentioned. I love Heyward just as much as the next Braves fan, but he wouldn’t have ended up on the All-Star team if you removed his name.
Yes, they are good numbers. I like them. Simply put again, it’s the peak that Milligan could reach.
Todd
The halftime shenanigans inspired me.
I can understand Peter leaving him out of the top-40. His swing is slow and his footwork and overall setup leaves much to be desired. Also, as previously noted, he seems injury prone. Granted, I’d probably have him somewhere between 26 and 34 on that list, but being left off the top-40 is definately understandable.
Heyward’s walk rate was in the upper 90th percentile of all players – Milligan would need a fluky BABIP season to drive his avg. up enough to sustain a .390 OBP for a season, given that even in his good year in the minors he only had a .049 OBP-BA. Patience just hasn’t been one of his plus tools. A more realistic peak would be .280/.350/.500. That’s above average, but I’d hate to endure pre-prime .250/.300/.450 seasons from a corner outfielder to get there.
I am really starting to question your intelligence Kevin. A .344/.393/.592 line from a 21 year old in A ball (thats pretty old for that level) and you claim that he has the upside of Heyward? With his lack of patience at the plate Adam Milligan would have to hit .350 or .360 to post a .390 OBP at the ML level.
Curtis
He has the upside of what will probably be Heyward’s worst year from a statistics standpoint. He’s going to be lucky to ever reach the numbers Heyward put up in 2010, but it’s as high as I see him going. I apologize if I painted a picture of too much optimism.
Also CAC, your network has a glitch. An error occurs after you post a comment. The error states that I have already posted that comment before (which is not true).
Kevin,
I think the objection to the comp is that Heyward’s first year, even if it does turn out to be his worst, had a really unique makeup thanks to his very high walk rate. Milligan’s not the type of player who’s ever going to have an OBP-heavy OPS, and he’s definitely not the type to have an OBP 120 points higher than his average. He’d be doing well to keep it 50 pts higher in the majors, and that means his success will be really dependent on luck and not striking out a lot.
He could, however, very well match or exceed Heyward’s first year power at some point. A .200+ ISO at some point from Milligan doesn’t seem far fetched to me at all – you’ve just got to hope his BA is high enough to make it valuable.
Regardless, I agree with Curtis that his 21y.o. season in A ball wasn’t impressive enough to project major league adequacy. The power he flashed is, however, very tantalizing in a system like the Braves’ where power is generally lacking. Based on that, he is definitely in my personal list of the top 40 braves prospects to keep an eye on, even if he’s not actually one of the top 40 prospects.
When it comes down to it, you usually have to include a player who is the best at one given tool in your top-40. As I mentioned earlier, I have seen a ton of prospect rankings with him out of it and it is likely more for injury history than performance, it really is the only rational notion.
Milligan, right now, has the most power in the Braves system. While it isn’t saying a ton, it is a fact that cannot be ignored.
Curtis,
In general, a .344/.393/.592 line is a pretty solid line at any level.. except for a 21 y.o. in single A, of course, because 99% of all college players who get drafted go straight to double and triple A.. right… You’re obviously correct about the OBP projection, but I think that should be a given (ahem, Kevin).
Kevin,
I really admire you’re approach to criticism. However, I feel you should not apologize to people who thought you compared Milligan’s upside to Heyward’s upside. You did no such thing and there is no reason for people (who ACTUALLY read your posting) to believe you did. There are people on this blog who jump on others for not doing their research. What about people who don’t even ta
Mlbtr says that Juan Rivera is available. Do the braves go after him?
Steve,
I think they may talk to the Blue Jays, but I don’t expect the Braves to make any big moves until late May at the earliest. I’m a big fan of Juan Rivera, but the Braves don’t have anywhere to play him. He’s a corner outfielder, and neither Prado or Heyward have the range to play center.
Curtis,
You need to work on your reading comprehension.
Do not be surprised by a trade for a CF in ST. I got bad feelings from the latest fluff article on McLouth by AJC, where he said he’s put on over 10 pounds of upper body muscle. Makes me afraid he still thinks of himself as a 30 HR hitter, who just needed a little more oomph in his swing. If he goes a few weeks in ST with crappy contact because he’s swinging for the fences again, the plug will get pulled on him quick. If he doesn’t come into ST with the right mental approach, there’s no point in playing him. Just stick him in AAA in case he figures it out, and move on.
Otherwise, I think the plan is to give him until some time in May to evaluate, while Schafer is in AAA being evaluated, with that plan being that if he produces, then he will be called up if any of OF/Uggla/Chipper get hurt, with Prado sliding over and Schafer splitting time between LF and CF.
Since both of those are in a holding pattern pending ST, the only possible trade i see is for a SS, either a back-up or a long-term contracted swapped for AG (to a team that has a prospect a year away). and i don’t expect that to happen until ST either.
and yes, i’ve been speaking of ST as if it’s months away, only now realizing pitchers and catchers report in less than a week. First TV game is in 3 weeks!
@ 28/ Coop
Total agreement regarding Kevin. I think Curtis (23) needs to re-examine the heading of this article before questioning people’s intelligence.
Boom/32,
The last thing I want to be is a defender of Nate McLouth but the note about him putting on 10 pounds of upper body muscle was in the context of having lost some size/strength while he was out with the concussion. He wasn’t able to work out as normal during that recovery. So I don’t think this is the same as when Jeff Francoeur added muscle and his power went down. It was him getting back to normal.
Still doesn’t mean he will rebound performance wise, but let’s be fair to the guy on the facts.
“10 pounds of upper-body muscle” is the kind of thing you’d always hear in the “steroid era” heading into ST. Maybe Nate’s hitting up the HGH. I kid…I kid?
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