Consider an earthquake
February 14, 2011 at 7:03 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves
I’m being peer-pressured to make a comment on this tidbit from a David O’Brien interview with Fredi Gonzalez:
Q. You pay attention to some of the more sophisticated new stats than some older managers. At the same time it sounds like you’re not going to let those stats dictate your lineup. For instance, you’re not going to move Chipper down just because he’s not what he once was. You’re going on what you see and have seen, not just on what stats tell you?
A. Yeah. You’ve got to use all the information you can get that’s out there. Then use your instincts or your gut feeling or whatever.
Q. So you’re not going to make a lineup based solely on sabermetics, on things like WAR or VORP. (Laughter.)
A. No, or – what’s the other one — DIPS? No, we’re not going to do that. Or hit the pitcher eighth. I’m not there yet.
So let’s break it down, piece-by-piece.
DOB: You pay attention to some of the more sophisticated new stats than some older managers.
Fredi’s proclaimed association with advanced statistics is not news, JC pointed out that he attended SABR 40 last summer and he’s spoken with several reporters on the subject over the past few months, indicating he both values and studies them. It’s always important to take what a manager says with a grain of salt. He could be telling the truth, it could simply be lip service. This is encouraging, but we’ll see what actually happens.
At the same time it sounds like you’re not going to let those stats dictate your lineup.
A manager’s job is to make his team perform as best they can. If that involves optimizing the line-up by The Book, great. Other things, like maintaining a balanced lefty-righty structure and keeping the players happy aren’t unimportant, either. If one of the guidelines detailed in the linked article interferes with one of these other things, the guideline is probably worth bending, or ignoring. A properly optimized line-up–one with your best three hitters batting 1, 2, and 4–is only worth about a win a year versus the typical, old-school line-up–one with your best hitter batting 3rd, a crappy-OBP guy who steals a lot of bases batting 1st, and a punchless, below-average hitter batting 2nd. Avoiding unfavorable late-game match-ups and keeping the players happy might just net you a win, too. Therefore, letting sabermetric research* dictate the line-up arrangement is not a good policy.
Now, should Fredi consider said research when he constructs his line-up? Absolutely. He should know exactly what he’s gaining or losing on paper with each move he’s considering. For instance, if he’s thinking of batting Nate McLouth 2nd and Jason Heyward 6th, he should know that’s not how The Book says you’re supposed to do it and he should know it’s worth about 4 runs a year (I made that number up but it seems reasonable. Obviously the Braves should be more diligent than I am being). Maybe he decides that’s too much to give up and leaves Heyward hitting 2nd, or maybe he decides he’d gain even more “off paper” and makes the switch. I can live with that. I loved it when Bobby hit Heyward 2nd; it was my favorite managerial decision of 2010. But if Fredi considers all of the information available and decides he’d prefer to do something different, I would have nothing to complain about.
Not letting sabermetric research dictate your line-up is the correct decision. Failing to consider sabermetric research is inexcusable. It’s clear Fredi won’t be committing offense number one. Whether or not he does commit offense number two I’ll probably never know, though, again, his early rhetoric is encouraging.
*”sabermetric research” would have been the term I chose rather than “stats”. DOB is writing for a huge, diverse audience, which undoubtedly affected the language he’s able to use. You’re reading a blog, you know what sabermetric research means. A lot of people reading newspapers don’t.
For instance, you’re not going to move Chipper down just because he’s not what he once was.
I do not know of one person who a) is familiar with sabermetric line-up optimization research, b) is familiar with the Atlanta Braves, c) knows what they’re talking about, and d) advocates moving Chipper Jones down in the line-up. If anything, these people advocate moving Chipper Jones up the line-up! (to leadoff). Basically, The Book says:
- Put your best on-base threat first unless he’s also your best power hitter, in which case bat your 2nd or 3rd best on-base threat first.
- Put your best two remaining hitters second and fourth, the better power hitter batting fourth.
- Put your best two remaining hitters third and fifth, with the better hitter fifth unless he lives and dies by the homer.
Chipper is one of the team’s best five hitters and should be hitting in one of the top five spots. Perhaps re-arranging the pieces such that Chipper is hitting first or fifth would lead to a slightly more optimized batting order. But the offense works with Chipper batting third and anyone telling you otherwise or that Chipper batting third is remotely close to the organization’s biggest problem is an amateur whose opinion should not be taken seriously.
You’re going on what you see and have seen, not just on what stats tell you?
Discussed at-length above, the conclusion being the correct answer is “yes”.
FG: Yeah.
That works, too.
You’ve got to use all the information you can get that’s out there.
Again, excellent answer. Though, again, with the caveat that this is a manager talking and what he says might just be lip service.
Then use your instincts or your gut feeling or whatever.
I’m with ya, Fredi. You’re killing it.
DOB: So you’re not going to make a lineup based solely on sabermetics, on things like WAR or VORP.
I would hope not. Both of those metrics are total-value metrics that consider, among other things, defense* and position difficulty. How difficult the defensive position a hitter plays and how well he plays it aren’t–at all–relevant to how many runs a team scores or how to construct a line-up. You might see Tim Hudson leading off if you constructed your line-up exclusively using WAR. The line-up should be optimized to score the most runs, not to put the most valuable overall baseball players at the top of the list.
Even if DOB had substituted WAR and VORP with, say, weighted on base average or OPS+, the correct answer still would be to affirm the assertion. Because a) there isn’t a statistic that can be exclusively used to optimize a line-up as well as a human can–even on-paper–and b) as previously discussed, off-paper factors should be considered as well.
*Maybe VORP doesn’t consider defense these days, I’m not sure.
(Laughter.)
FG: No, or – what’s the other one — DIPS?
I can’t tell what’s going on here.
First of all, DIPS stands for Defense Independent Pitching Statistics and quite literally has nothing to do with line-up optimization. If you’re not familiar with DIPS theory, I recommend reading the Wikipedia entry on the subject. It couldn’t have less to do with offense, it’s applied exclusively to the other side of the ball.
Now, what’s going on here? I see three possibilities. One is Fredi is familiar with the term “DIPS” but does not actually know what it means. Two is Fredi simply brings it up to play along with DOB’s joke and in doing so he’s creating an illusion of ignorance where it doesn’t exist. Three is Fredi is extremely well versed in VORP, WAR, and DIPS, and is messing with DOB, laughing at him, rather than with him.
I think scenarios one and three are very unlikely. It would indeed be very disappointing if possibility one were the case, though I see no reason to assume it is.
No, we’re not going to do that.
It’s not entirely clear to me what “that” refers to, but I have to assume Fredi intends to refer to arranging the line-up exclusively using sabermetric research (or a sabermetric statistic). In which case not doing it is correct.
Or hit the pitcher eighth. I’m not there yet.
I have no opinion on hitting the pitcher eighth. Tony LaRussa does it and I don’t like him very much. The Book says there’s a small gain in doing so, though not really enough to get worked up over. Especially when you consider the added value of not being like Tony LaRussa.
The last sentence of the tidbit is curious to me, though. “I’m not there yet.” Is Fredi implying this is a place he would like to be? (Again, I have no opinion)
…………
Discussion questions:
1) What do you think of Fredi’s ability to optimize a line-up? Is it high on your list of concerns heading into the 2011 season?
2) Bobby Cox was never regarded as a good tactician, but especially in 2010 he showed an interest in maintaining a more saber-approved line-up. Would you feel better with Bobby Cox or Fredi Gonzalez filling out the line-up cards in 2011 (assuming all of the other managerial duties fall on Fredi’s shoulders)?
3) I was probably unfair in my initial assessment of Fredi Gonzalez. If you paid attention only to the offseason rhetoric you’d think we’re going to see one of the more progressive managers in the game at the helm for Atlanta in 2011. His track record, though, is at best somewhat inconsistent with his comments this winter. Which Fredi are we going to get?
4) What does Fredi Gonzalez mean by “I’m not there yet”?
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1) No. I want to know that the players respect him and that he seemingly has a good relationship with his players and coaches. If I want any tactical things, I would like the team to focus on some baserunning, but Escobar’s gone, which takes away 1/2 the problem. I would also like to know that he won’t repeatedly play Melky Cabrera/Jeff Francoeur for 100 games before realizing they suck. They’re gone, so I’m not terribly worried.
2) I’m still not convinced Bobby did it for “sabermetric” principles. I think it was more “He’s 20 and doesn’t hit many home runs yet, but he’s clearly one of our best hitters.” I’m pretty sure if anyone mentioned The Book to Bobby, he’d ask “Which one?” At least Fredi has definitely heard of it, which is a start.
3)Hopefully, he’s learned a little in his time away from the game, and I think he has. He’ll probably still sac-bunt us to death and burn out relievers like Bobby, but I’ll take the chance that he’ll be better about it.
4) Casual joke that he hasn’t “gone off the deep end” in regard to sabermetrics. I don’t think he means he’s headed there. Essentially, he’s saying that he’ll stick to what he thinks is best and what he’s been taught unless he can it can be unequivocably proven that he should change, which isn’t likely to happen.
I’m not concerned about Fredi taking over. I think he’ll be a minor upgrade over Bobby tactically, will have a good relationship with his players, but he won’t have the respect Bobby carried because … well … he’s not Bobby and hasn’t won a lot.
As far as the lineup goes, I think Fredi probably knows what he’s doing. However, I am more interested to see how quickly he is willing to try different things.
The one that sticks out to me is his initial intention to bat Nate 2nd and JHey 6th. To me, this would make sense in every Braves fan’s dream world where Nate actually gets on base at a respectable clip. However, I am afraid he won’t be doing much of that, and if his OBP is sitting in the low .300s after a month or so, I would hope Fredi would recognize this and make changes accordingly.
Also, I expect JHey’s OBP to be way too high to justify him not hitting in one of the top 4 spots. With his combination of OBP and SLG, he really needs to be hitting 2nd or 4th.
1. Definitely a concern, even if McLouth returns to his 09 form it’s just not a good idea to bat him 2nd while Heyward’s hitting 6th.
2. Definitely Bobby, I loved his lineups last year despite a few bizarre games where he didn’t seem to know what to do after Chipper went down and batted Gonzalez 3rd.
3. He certainly seems to have improved a bit looking through the roster from 2009. You don’t have things like Miguel Cabrera or Hanley having 5 sac bunts like they did his first year (though Coughlan has 3, come on man). Bonifacio getting so much play time is a bit worrying but they didn’t really have anyone better for third base unless you wanna count Wes Helms.
4. It’s a shot at Tony LaRussa.
If I remember correctly, the difference between the most optimal batting order, and the least is only about 1 win over the course of an entire season, so Fredi can do whatever his “gut” tells him as far as I’m concerned.
The lineup I believe Fredi posted as a possibility initially was this:
1. Prado
2. McLouth
3. Chipper
4. McCann
5. Uggla
6. Heyward
7. Gonzalez
8. Freeman
So, as blasphemous to some as it may sound, I think I’d prefer Fredi’s ability to make a lineup. My optimal lineup would be the exact same except Freeman and McLouth would be flipped, having Freddie bat 2nd and McLouth 8th. I suppose this makes me biased. I’m of the belief that the better hitter should get more ABs, and I honestly believe Freeman is a better hitter than McLouth, even at age 21.
j-turn14/4,
The difference between the most optimal line-up and a typical line-up is about 1-win. The difference between the most optimal and the least optimal line-up would be more than 1-win. Though it’d require insanity to arrive at the least optimal line-up.
I just want Freddi to know not to pitch Sherrill against RHH, and (if he’s only pitching against LHH) not to trust his 2.50 ERA (or whatever) enough to face RHH.
In short, Sherrill and O’Flaherty only face lefties, and Moylan and Linebrink only face righties.
This should be a great discussion:
1) Its probably higher than it should be. I loved the way Bobby deployed the lineup last year. It appears Fredi is regressing in this regard. I think why this has been so troubling to the Braves saber community is that feeling that we’re regressing in this department–even if the gains/losses are so minor.
2) Cox ^, but I’m intrigued to see how FG handles things like AGon, McClouth, and platoons. One Bobby Cox pet peeve was L/R PH matchups when the hitter in question (Infante) hit RH pitching better. Omar wasn’t the only instance where that came up last year if I recall and yet we always seemed to play that the same way.
3) No idea. My only thinking here is that the Braves may be marginally more saber friendly as an organization than the Marlins, which could influence FG. We take a balanced approach and I’ve never picked up on a large saber influence in Miami.
4) The political science major in me loved this comment. Sounds so political. When I’ve heard politicians express similar thing it generally means that they have evolving views on the subject–and are essentially acknowledging that their views have changed, but that their constituents views don’t really allow them to take that position fully.
3)
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Least optimal – based on no statistics, just hypothesis:
1. Uggla – homers in himself, or flies out to right to open off the inning
2. McLouth – sub-mendoza avt
3. Freeman – fresh, unproven, throw him into the #3 spot
4. Gonzalez – a good glove belongs in the #4 hole
5. McCann – Has nobody in front of him to get on base,
6. Chipper – lets see how he does post-rehab. presumably less power, but decent OBP
7. Heyward – burry a damned good (power) hitter
8. Prado – try to limit our OBP leader’s at bats
John,
I was actually thinking about that. What would be the least optimal line-up? And how many wins could it actually cost you?
I agree with Mark/1 on just about everything. As long as AAG bats 7th or 8th, I’ll be happy. I would be happier if McLouth doesn’t bat second (did Freddie really post the sample lineup in /5?).
I also thought that Bobby more or less lucked into the good lineup last year with Heyward in the 2 hole. Chipper and Mac were locked into 3 and 4, with Glaus at 5, and once it became clear that McLouth and Yunel weren’t hitting, Prado and Heyward were going to be #1 and #2 by default.
I wouldn’t read too much into the “I’m not there yet” comment. He knows most fans who read the interview aren’t too stat-savvy and doesn’t want to alienate anyone. If anything, the “yet” is encouraging because it means he’s still open to new ideas.
here are Freddie Gonzalez’s 2 most common lineups in 2009, 2008 and 2007.
http://i.imgur.com/KrslK.png
http://i.imgur.com/vg9Bs.png
http://i.imgur.com/ygnbM.png
I think we all might be reading too much into this stuff. The DIPS comment is probably just an offhand thing, another saber acronym. I envision the “not there yet” as more of a figure of speech than anything else also, really.
I’m with TCQ. Gonzalez was just joking around and didn’t really treat it as a serious conversation.
I think he’s smart and incredibly motivated to become a successful manager. I am quite confident he’ll be able to do it.
I do not like Heyward 6th. He is one of the best hitters on the team. He needs to be 2nd or 3rd. Even if McLouth turns into the McLouth of his last full season in Pittsburgh, I don’t like him at leadoff or 2nd in the order. We really need Prado and Heyward at the top of the order.
With that said, I think Fredi will be fine. I thought he did great at Florida with what he had to work with. I was very pleased to hear he was replacing Bobby. If McLouth can bounce back and Chipper can play in 135 games, the Braves should be in playoff contention again (2 huge if’s). If neither of those 2 things happen, I will be very interested to see what OF’s Wren goes after by midseason.
I would rather see:
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Chipper
4. McCann
5. Uggla
6. McLouth
7. Freeman
8. Gonzales
1. FG batted Emilio Bonifacio (arguably the worst everyday player in baseball) leadoff for the majority of the 2009 season. He might be envisioning a lineup right now with Alex Gonzalez batting leadoff for all we know.
2. I would rather have Bobby, as he would more than likely continue batting Heyward 2nd.
3. I really have no idea, but I am looking forward to finding out.
4. That he is not to the point where he is going to completely rely upon sabermetrics?
How about moving Chipper up and McLouth down?
1. Prado
2. Jones
3. Heyward
4. McCann
5. Uggla
6. Freeman
7. Gonzales
8. McLouth
I like Heyward hitting 2nd, but I’d like to see Chipper batting later in the order. Like maybe 5th or 6th. Since the relative order of batters is more important than the absolute order after a couple innings, why stack the best hitters 1-3? Furthermore, I’d like to see Chipper’s usage limited a bit for health reasons; simply dropping him in the lineup should keep him off the bases a few more times a week (compared to him hitting 2nd or 3rd).
Btw, although I love stats and the peripheral information sabermetrics provide, I always feel like the last holdout for “old school” scouting on CAC.
…It’s like when I played coed-kickball. Yeah, you can stack you best hitters at the top of the lineup and get early rallies, but inevitably you’re gonna be down a run with an inning left to play and a bunch of girls up to kick. Preventable situation.
(Hey, this metaphor actually works, don’t hate on the kickball)
Great write-up. I’ve been reading this site for about a year now- I guess it’s about time for me to start posting.
1. I think FG is going to be just fine making a line-up. He prob won’t deviate too much from the Bobby’s way of thinking. I love the idea of Chipper moving up the lineup and slotting Heyward in the 3rd hole.
2. Not really sure about this one. I think Bobby did a great job over the years but FG might bring some new perspective to our game. There were times during last season I questioned why Bobby would bat AGon 4th. I also remember him playing Melky in the cleanup spot.
3. I think FG is highly motivated to do well in ATL. The organization seems pretty high on him, and if he does well I don’t see why the Braves would get rid of him. Therefore I think he has a fresh approach to how he’s going to handle the Braves this year.
4. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Nate, I like the idea of keeping Chipper healthy, but something is inherently wrong about trying to keep someone OFF the basepaths.
Putting McLouth anywhere above Heyward is simply laughable.
I just like Heyward hitting 6th for these reasons: a) he’s gonna have guys with a .340+ OBP hitting in all 5 spots ahead of him, b) he’s gonna have a .400 OBP and a .500 SLG, meaning he’s gonna get on base, and frequently 2nd base, so that c) the guys with the lower OBPs (the McLouths and Gonzalezs) can drive him in (a single drives him in from 2B and a double from 1B because of his speed).
Also, with McLouth batting 8th, if he can even have a .330 OBP, he can use his speed (about all he has going for him) to steal 2nd, then probably get bunted to 3rd, and then you have Prado coming up with 1 out.
I have Freeman batting 2nd because of all of the pitches he’ll get to hit. He’s protected in front by Prado, and behind him by Chipper, McCann, Uggla, and Heyward.
1) Not high on my list of concerns. I think Fredi is going to be pretty similar to Bobby in how he treats the offense. I have much bigger concerns about how he uses the bullpen and pinch hitters.
2) Like in #1, I think they are both going to prove to be pretty similar. In fact, I think just about all managers in MLB are pretty similar when it comes to filling out lineups. Fredi knows the Braves pretty well so I think the “off-paper” stuff will dictate the lineup just like it did with Bobby. And in reality, most of us fans, when asked to make a lineup, would all be the same except for a player or two… most likely who bats 3nd and 5th.
3) I still think we’re gonna get the more conservative Fredi Gonzalez. I think its good that he knows about all of the advanced measurements- I’m not sure if Bobby would have even known what VORP was- but I’m not counting on any revolutionary methods. I seem to recall a lot of complaints about his overuse of “matchups” with the bullpen, something I think he learned from the Bobby Cox Graduate School of Managing.
4) Sarcasm. He’s never gonna get “there” and he thinks anyone who is “there” is an idiot.
1) I don’t like what I’ve heard so far but in the end it’s low on my list of concerns because I realize that lineup construction has little effect on a team’s record.
2) I think there won’t be a huge difference.
3) Again, I think he’ll be pretty similar to Bobby.
4) I think it’s an acknowledgment that his views toward new baseball thinking have changed, but that he’s not going to hit the pitcher 8th.
@ Nate
If you are concerned about late game situations, than it is even nicer to have Chipper hitting between Heyward and McCann– his being a switch hitter keeps a specialist from being able to stay in against 2 lefties in a row.
A lot of people are motivated to do well–the majority, I would assume, and the vast majority of those who reach the heights of success in their fields that Fredi Gonzalez has. But being sincere in wanting to succeed neither guarantees success nor that the person in question will optimize his/her opportunity.
With that in mind,
(1) I don’t think Fredi Gonzalez is going to optimize the lineup as well as he could. Specifically, batting McLouth 2nd and Heyward 5th is sub-optimal. Moreover, as others have posted, he has written some remarkably sub-optimal lineup cards in years past, most notably the several hundred that listed Emil Bonofacio in the leadoff spot.
(2) Probably Bobby, but I’m not in love with either. That said, lineups were not my biggest issue with Bobby’s tactics, and are nowhere near my biggest concern with Fredi. So long as the manager bats our five best (good) hitters bat in the top 5 or 6 spots of the lineup, I’m fine with him whomever he might be.
(3) I think you’ll see roughly the same Fredi Gonzalez we saw in Miami. His gut will lead him to do things like overvalue speed and undervalue on base percentage; rely too heavily upon imaginary platoon splits; manage a bullpen poorly; and generally do an ok though not spectacular job.
My point here is that precedent should be more predictive than any offhand, recent comments. People say a lot of stuff, but for the most part, people hardly change radically once they reach a certain age.
(4) He’s not yet ready to engross himself in saber-metric research to such an extent that he allows it to dictate his lineups. His preceding comment/sentence indicated this as his meaning. The fact that he might be conflating La Russa’s bizarre lineup construction with saber-oriented lineups is very possible.
Shaunson/25,
I understand your point about Freeman/Heyward but it seems to rely too much on contingencies (if X is on 2nd, he can bunt Y over due to his speed, etc.) and protection theory. The effectiveness of PT is questionable and I don’t think removing Heyward from one of the top 5 positions is worth it just so Freeman can “see more pitches” (I’m paraphrasing).
It seems like the same kind of logic that Nate/21 is using when he made his kickball analogy (which was pretty good). Being in situations with a “bunch of girls” (McLouth, Gonzalez and maybe Freeman) up to hit aren’t great but you probably notice them more than they matter because you notice the failure. Meanwhile, having less-than-stellar hitters at the bottom won’t matter when you’re up 3+ runs in every game because of how many DINGERZ Heyward, Uggla, and McCann hit earlier in the game, amirite?
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the FO didn’t talk to FG about taking in the information provided by advanced metrics because the team is trying to compete on a mid-tier payroll and needs every edge it can get. Just tossing out a baseless theory though, Gladwell-style.
Lot of good points made already but figured I’d throw in my two cents…
1. FG’s ability to fill out a lineup isn’t of high concern for me. He did make some mistakes in Florida, but as mentioned, he did well with what he had to work with. I’m definitely more concerned with his use of maximizing the abilities of the bullpen. After reading the previous entry about the outlook of the bullpen, I think it is going the be the number one concern we have to deal with throughout the season, unforeseen injuries not withstanding.
2. I’ll go with Cox here, but that’s only due to the fact that he spent the last season with everyone except for Uggla. I’m with 12. Hizouse in thinking that Bobby lucked into the Heyward hitting 2nd thing to a certain degree because of the injuries and obviousness that he couldn’t hit as low as he was forever. That being said, I hate the idea of heyward batting anywhere lower than 5th. He’s perfect in the 2-3-4 range and I absolutely hate the idea of putting him back into the 6 spot especially if Nate is anywhere above him.
3. I’d like to think that based on his time away from the game and some of his lessons learned while in Florida that we will get a 2011 version of Bobby at the helm. Which is to say, we will still occasionally be frustrated with some of the moves he makes, but he will correct mistakes sooner and not let blind loyalty make all of his decisions.
4. I don’t really think he meant anything by it. Probably didn’t have a really good answer so he went with a generic one.
I am pretty sure the early lineup will end up being:
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Chipper
4. McCann/Uggla
5. Uggla/Mac
6. Freeman/Gonzo
7. Gonzo/Freeman
8. McLouth
When Chipper goes down you can be certain Heyward will shift into the 3rd slot.
I have a feeling all the “McLouth batting 2nd” talk was done in part to keep Nate’s confidence up as much as possible. It would have been pretty bad for Nate’s confidence if Fredi just came out and said he is going to stick him in the 8th slot and let him rot away until he hits his way off the team.
I also think it would be a mistake to stick Freeman in the 8th slot where he has no protection. He is not exactly the most patient hitter, and I have a feeling he could be tricked into having some pretty horrid ABs as pitchers try to pitch around him to get to the pitcher. If Freeman bats 8th expect the pitcher to be leading off a LOT of innings.
Nate and Gonzo should be the guys hitting 8th most of the time.
This just reminds me of a story John Salley told for Deadspin. His team was doing terrible and fired their coach, the interim coach came in and was running the exact same plays with the exact same people but just magically got better results. Salley even said that players weren’t really happy about the coach being fired.
I am assuming Fredi isn’t a complete moron. He seems to notice that things are/have changed somewhat. Bobby was always a guy I never could tell if he always placed a different emphasis types of players or was “saber-aware”. I’ve spent time thinking of players I remember from the Braves that were even somewhat walk adverse and all I can really think of are Pendleton and Francoeur?
Also the Marlins’ lineup for when Fredi was there wasn’t exactly a murder’s row. Hanley, Uggla and Cantu are the only three I can think of who were worth using. Also Coghlan’s mystery tour 2009.
Nick S/31,
I completely agree about the confidence issue with McLouth. It’s much like Bobby saying that Lowe was his ace before last season. To me, McLouth appears to be a guy whose head dictates his numbers more than most (that obviously can’t be proven, but he did admit to losing confidence). If that is the case, Freddi said exactly the right thing.
That said, if Chipper goes down and Nate has resurfaced (to maybe a .350 OBP), I wouldn’t mind seeing him towards the top of the order. But if he breaks camp anywhere but 8th, he better have had a hell of a Spring Training.
1) I think Fredi will do fine, as most managers do, regarding lineup optimization. He’ll make mistakes but most lineups that a mangers fills in aren’t worth much less than an optimal lineup. I would be disappointed if Heyward hits lower than 4th, and I prefer him at 2nd, but the Braves should still win around 90 games with Heyward hitting 6th (as long as everyone that’s supposed to stays reasonably healthy).
2) I liked Bobby’s lineups this year, from what I can remember. See above. I would be a little disappointed if Heyward doesn’t hit second. I hear whispers that he may not. Right now it’s a toss up, but I’ll change my mind if those rumors are true.
3) I think Fredi will be somewhat like Bobby. He will be a mediocre tactician but he will understand the basics of showing a fairly high appreciation for on-base and things of that sort.
4) I think “I’m not there yet” means that he’s not like those crazies that live in their parents’ basements.
Well, its not just about contingencies though there are many of them. Not a whole lot changes. Prado is still the leadoff guy. Chipper still hits 3rd. Mac still hits 4th. Uggla hits in the 5 spot, like everyone expects him to. I just have Freeman hitting 2nd because he’s a better contact hitter than McLouth.
Its taking the best parts of last year’s lineup and sticking with it, as well as stratifying the L/R so there are never two lefties or righties hitting back to back except with the pitcher and Prado.
@18/Brian
That’s interesting, I didn’t know Bonifacio hit leadoff for so long. Thankfully the Braves don’t seem like they have anyone like that. I’ll be worried if Diory is hitting leadoff in the games he plays though
I haven’t seen Freddie Freeman play, but where does he project in the lineup in future years? His contact rate is high, but I’m guessing he doesn’t have the ideal speed to bat 2nd as has been advocated by some.
I haven’t seen Freddie Freeman play (save his limited September time post-call-up), but where does he project in the lineup in future years? His contact rate was high in the minors, but I’m guessing he doesn’t have the ideal speed to bat 2nd as has been advocated by some.
What are the chances that a manager can “learn”? For instance in regard to Bonifacio, can a manager learn that’s a bad idea to have a low OBP speed guy at the top? Or is it more of a old dogs and new tricks thing? Part of me thinks a manger can learn, and it seems Fredi spent a significant amount of time trying to do so. I just wonder if he’ll adjust when it gets to crunch time.
All right, understanding full well that Bonifacio is not an everyday player. In defense of Fredi, I guess he just got infatuated with that hot start(321/345/409 in the first 12 games) he had in 2009. by the end of April it was at a 309 OBP he should have figured it out.
Is it any worse than playing Gregor Blanco in 144 games in 2008 leading him off most of the time like Bobby did half of the time? with numbers like 251/366/309 – pathetic!
Maybe it is not possible for a manager to ‘learn’ from gut feelings that bite them in the ass.
I just can not see him taking JHey out of the 2 hole where Bobby had him down the stretch
I’ve written a few things about this article a few different times and kept deciding to scrap it.
The one thing that I continue to hold onto is that ST games haven’t even started yet, and I think it’s in my best judgment to reserve judgment until the regular season starts. We’ll see what happens as things progress through March.
Quit baiting me into a ST post, Peter.
CAC,
Enjoyed the podcast at BtB. I’m hoping enough will change in the East during ST to change your prediction.
40/Keith,
Are you trying to suggest a .366 OBP in the leadoff slot is a bad thing? For the record, Bobby played Blanco in the lead off spot 63 games in 2008, and he had a .371 OBP in those games. I think the Braves will take that everyday of the week. Blanco is not even close to the same player as Bonifacio in terms of OBP.
I am just now getting a chance to respond to these questions, so here we go..
1) Not at all. As already mentioned several times, lineup optimization has little impact on the number of games a team will win in a season. Would I love it if Fredi went for the most optimal one? Sure, but I’m not concerned if we still have an average to above average optimized lineup, which we will.
2) Either really. Fredi was hand-picked by Bobby, so I am sure that they would post highly similar lineups given the same list of players from which to choose. I also agree with Nick/31 and his assessment of the McLouth-2hole talk. Build up his confidence going into the season. He has the potential to be a top lineup hitter, but unless he absolutely destroys in ST (complete opposite of his 2010 ST), I expect Nate to be in the 6-8 slots.
3) In response to this and another post, I think managers can most definitely learn. Did the aforementioned LaRussa always participate in his raving “bat the pitcher in the 8 hole” douchebaggery? No. So I think Fredi is fully capable of keeping up with the times. He is only 47, so he’s on the younger end in terms of MLB manager age. I don’t expect him to drift too far away from old school, but I also don’t expect a Bobby Cox 101 style either.
4) Managerial/MLB politics. Also could be saying “I’m not there yet” in terms of BAC levels. We all know Tony loves his sauce.
Hmm. I tried putting the lineup together based on the criteria at the “by the book” link, and it looks like this.
Prado
Chipper
Uggla
Heyward
McCann
McLouth
Freeman
AGon
The big problem I see is you’ve got righty-switch-righty at the top, which would be great except we’re so lefty heavy that 4-8 would all be lefties. You could easily break that up some by switching Freeman and AGon, but that still leaves 4-6 as all lefties.
Actually, I guess you could make the argument “by the book” to put McCann 2nd, which would make it
Prado
McCann
Uggla
Heyward
Chipper
McLouth
Freeman
AGon
You can switch Freeman and AGon at the bottom, and it would be perfectly balanced.
Apparently I botched the last thing
Chipper
Heyward
Prado
McCann
Uggla
Freeman
Gonzalez
McLouth
I really don’t want AGon hitting 8th. I think we need someone with a tad more patience (McLouth preferably) to get the pitcher’s spot out of the way.
I took it as number one, unfortunately. I really think we’re just being talked at to be appeased, but I could be completely wrong and as you mentioned all I am doing is assuming, which probably is not the right thing to do. Every now and then you have a feeling though, and I have a feeling that he was not making the joke in jest.
With that said, Chipper should probably flip flop with Prado. That will never happen, but that’s really all I see wrong in the lineup optimization if/when Heyward is hits second.
This:
I really don’t want AGon hitting 8th. I think we need someone with a tad more patience (McLouth preferably) to get the pitcher’s spot out of the way.
Is exactly right.
Putting a guy who has the plate discipline of Artie Lange in a position to be pitched around a lot is a bad idea.