Evaluating the CC Sabathia Trade
June 19, 2009 at 10:47 am by Capitol Avenue Club under Draft, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Pitching, Transactions
Now that the 2009 draft is in the books we can properly evaluate the CC Sabathia trade. For review, in June of 2008 the Brewers shipped Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zack Jackson, and Michael Brantley to Cleveland for 3 months of CC Sabathia. Milwaukee got exactly what they wanted, a front-line pitcher to push them into the post-season. CC Sabthia was exactly that, going 11-2 in 17 starts for the Brewers posting a 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 128 strikeouts in 130 and 2/3 innings. He also racked up 7 complete games and 3 shutouts, both league highs when the rest of his competition had a full season to accumulate CG’s and SHO’s. It was one of the more dominant stretches of pitching we’ve seen. Maybe the most dominant post-trade stretch of pitching we’ve seen since Doyle Alexander in 1987 went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts for the Tigers after being traded from the Atlanta Braves for a certain player named John Smoltz.
Sabathia threw an average of 7 and 2/3 innings per start. He took pressure off of the bullpen and gave the Brewers a chance to win in all of his starts. And if the Brewers’ goal was to make the post-season, this move was exactly what they needed, because they got a wild-card berth, edging the New York Mets by 1 game. And there’s little chance they would’ve been able to do so without Sabathia.
But it was taxing on everyone. The players were tired by the end of the season due to having to compete at the highest level because every game was that important. The manager, a fairly good one by the name of Ned Yost, was fired with 12 games remaining in the regular season, an unprecedented move. And CC Sabathia faded a bit down the stretch due to gross overuse and gave up 14 runs in September after giving up only 17 in the previous 2 months with Milwaukee. It showed most of all in his lone post-season start that October when he lasted only 3 and 2/3 innings giving up 5 ER and struggling with control, walking an unprecedented 4 batters (he walked 5 in 6 innings during his first Brewers start, walked 3 on one occasion with the Brewers, and didn’t walk more than 2 in all of his other starts wearing a Milwaukee jersey).
So the fact that the Brewers didn’t make it farther than the NLDS and lost to the eventual world champion Phillies is a disappointment, but the fact that the Brewers got back to the post-season, somewhere they hadn’t been in a long time, makes losing LaPorta and company a little bit easier to swallow.
And the fact that the Brewers would offer Arbitration to both Sabathia and Ben Sheets and receive 4 compensory picks, presumably 2 first-rounders and 2 sandwich picks, made it even easier to swallow. The Brewers didn’t expect to be able to re-sign Sabathia. They made an offer which Sabathia’s agent scoffed off while they negotiated with the club everyone expected Sabathia to sign with, the New York Yankees. Ben Sheets is another story of how flawed the compensation system is, but that won’t be covered in this space. The Brewers offered Sabathia arbitration, he declined, and signed with the New York Yankees. And they were set to receive the Yankees’ first round pick. Until the Yankees signed Teixeira, which bumped them down a round and the Brewers received the Yankees’ second round pick along with a sandwich pick. Now, Sabathia certainly had more of an impact on the Brewers than Teixeira had on the Angels. Sabathia lead the Brewers to a playoff berth. The Angels already had a playoff berth in the bag when they acquired Teixeira. Teixeira represented a commitment to October for the Angels, but like the Brewers, they also lost in the first round. So Teixeira took them nowhere, and Sabathia took the Brewers from an average team to a playoff team. The Angels also had the best record in baseball in 2008, 100-62. While the Brewers didn’t have a bad season, they certainly didn’t have a 100-win season. Yet some how Elias thinks that the Angels deserve the Yankees first round pick for Teixeira more than the Brewers do for Sabathia. But enough about that. Let’s look at the draft picks the Brewers took to “complete” the Sabathia trade.
With their compensation round pick, the Brewers took an athletic outfielder from Tennessee (The University of) named Kentrail Davis. Davis won’t be able to stick in center due to his arm and will have to play left. He’s a line-drive hitter with tons of speed. Sort of in the Carl Crawford mold. He turned down first round money out of HS and elected to go to Tennessee and he’s currently a draft-eligible sophomore, so it’ll take quite a load of cash to sign him.
And with their 2nd round compensory pick, the Brewers selected Max Walla, a high-school outfielder whose bat is his best tool. He may not have the range or arm to play the OF at the highest level and may end up being a 1B or DH. He has lots of raw power and draws many comparisons to Brian Giles. He’s committed to Oklahoma State and it always takes a bit more to sign the guys who have a back-up plan.
In short, neither of the picks really jump out at me. They could develop into super-stars, especially Walla, but they don’t thrill me. Not like having a pitcher go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA does.
So, Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley for 18 starts from CC Sabathia (post-season included), Max Walla (if they sign him), and Kentrail Davis (if they sign him). And most importantly, a post-season berth. Was it worth it? Depends on how much you value getting to the post-season. For Brewers fans, I think it certainly was. It gave them a reason to be faithful in the team. I would’ve liked to see them get a little bit more in the way of draft pick compensation (the fact that the Angels got the Yankees first rounder is disgusting to me). And we won’t be able to properly evaluate the trade until all of the involved players have finished their careers. But unless one of the players they traded ends up having a Hall of Fame career while their draft picks don’t, I don’t think you can say it was a bad move for the Brewers. They gave up a lot, but they got the ultimate prize, the sweet taste of October baseball. And 2 draft picks to boot.
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hey that was a really interesting piece. I never really thought about the angle that the angels got that pick over the brewers but the way you construct your argument it seems quite clear that, at least as far as compensation goes, the most injured party was indeed the brewers.
here is the way i look at that trade. the key factor was sheets. if he had stayed healthy there was no reason they couldn’t have gone all the way. CC and Ben on top of that offense should be a good combination to win any 5 or 7 game series in the post season. i think it was worth the risk. unfortunately for them it didn’t work out that way
Very good points, Mike. According to the Elias rankings, which aren’t done well to begin with (they include RBI. Really, Michael Vick?), Teixeira was the better player. So the Angels get the pick. I didn’t even get into the fact that the Angels only gave up Kotchman and Marek for Teixeira whereas the Brewers gave up 1 super-star prospect, 2 really good prospects, and some other guy. Number 1 I’m not convinced Teixeira is the better player. Number 2, they don’t consider what the clubs gave up to get them. I don’t think they should, but some people might. And they didn’t consider how much impact each player had, how much it would hurt to lose each player, how good each team was before and after they had the players, etc. There’s a number of things wrong with the compensation system.
You make a great point about Sheets. With him healthy the Brewers have a legitimate shot at both cruising into the post-season comfortably and going all the way. Plus they get 2 more draft picks. It didn’t work out that they won the World Series, but just getting to the post-season was huge for that team. I’m happy they were able to accomplish that. Milwaukee is a great baseball town and it had been too long since they’d been playing in October. And I agree, it was worth the risk. Either Sheets stays healthy and you have a shot at winning it all or Sheets doesn’t stay healthy and you have a shot at the post-season. It was time for them to get to the post-season.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Taylor%20Green&pos=3B&sid=t559&t=p_pbp&pid=488919
Still with the Brewers.
Taylor Green wasn’t part of that deal it was Brantley who turned out to be the player to be named later.
Thanks guys. Several sources, notably The Hardball Times (the one I used) mistakenly reported that Green was part of the deal. I guess because he was speculated to be the PTBNL before the deal was made official. And I don’t know why I mistook “Doug Melvin” for “Ned Yost”, early morning brain fart I reckon. Anyway, thanks for pointing that out. I’ve fixed it in the article.
It’s Zack Jackson. Zack Johnson is a golfer who won the Masters a couple years back. Common mistake. He’s toiling for the Indians AAA team just like he was toiling for the Brewers and Blue Jays (?) before. He may not be an MLB level player
LaPorta was up for a bit this year and is now back down to AAA. Another thing to consider with LaPorta though is that he was blocked by the youngest and arguably the most talented Brewers at the MLB level (Fielder, Braun and Hart). They are/were stacked at the LF/RF/1B with Brad Nelson (DFA’d in May), Mat Gamel (long term path will probably resemble Braun moving to OF or 1B), Breden Katin, Erick Almonte, etc.
Brantley is doing ok in his first year at AAA. Meanwhile the other assumed option of the PTBNL Taylor Greene is doing a bit better at admitadly a lower level (AA).
Rob Bryson doesn’t exist in MILB.com’s database of players, not sure if he’s no longer playing baseball or what.
Zach Jackson, not Johnson, was the pitcher involved. As a Brewer fan, I definitely think the Brewers should have gotten the Yuckees 1st rounder. But oh well, that’ the way it goes. Sheets is also a sore spot for Brewer fans, especially how his season ended (injury, what a shock) and how this past offseason transpired. Good Article though.
Thanks guys. I just can’t get it right today, haha. It’s corrected.
Just to add something else, Yost was fired with 12 games to go not “less than 10″.
Of course, it’s a matter of opinion if Yost was a good manager. I was happy to see him go although it was my opinion he should have been fired either at the end of the very disappointing 2007 season or in mid May 2008 after getting swept by Boston and being under 500.
As a long suffering Brewers fan I have to say it was absolutely worth it and it was by far the most exciting season in my lifetime.
I’m striking out all over the place. It really does pay to look things up. Thank you, Adam. I’ve again updated it.
either that or turn off the comments so anal retentives like me can’t correct you…lol.
whether or not yost was good is somewhat moot, it’s the drasticness (that surely isn’t a word) of the move.
I’ll agree with Adam though, it was worth it in spades. I would say that if Corey Hart hadn’t made the all star team though, LaPorta may not have been so expendable at that time.
Without question the Brewers trade for CC was worth it. That was one of the two most entertaining seasons in franchise history, it was a great season with many great memories.
the Brewers are a franchise where their window is small, when there is an opportunity, they need to go for it, and go for it they did.
Haha, Lucas. I’m cool with people correcting me. It needed to be corrected. Answer me this: would LaPorta have the arm and range to man right field on a regular basis? Regardless I think the trade was probably worth it.
He probably would have been better suited to LF or 1B. If anything the Brewers would have moved Braun to RF cause he has the arm and kept LaPorta in LF. But I still don’t think he’d ever displace Hart. LaPorta probably has more potential than Hart does, but that’s not really the Brewers MO to replace producing players with prospects. See JJ Hardy and his .220 avg and the Brewers number 1 prospect Alcides Escobar at SS for proof of that.
After losing Sheets and Sabathia almost everyone wrote off the Brewers for this season. They did make some very good offseason moves however which have helped them back to the top of the NL Central. Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, and quite possibly the biggest return on investment so far, Casey McGehee.
I, like many Brewers fans, was distraught when Rickie Weeks went down for the season. He was having a break out start to the season. Luckily they had Craig Counsell and Casey McGehee on the bench to fill in. Craig Counsell is outstanding against right handed pitchers. And now Casey McGehee is really coming into his own playing everyday. He’s starting to become a lock for getting on base 2-3 times a night.
Barring major injuries to Fielder, Braun, or Gallardo, I think they have a very good chance at taking the NL Central this year. Especially if they go out and get a quality pitcher.